Biomedical subjects

P Hougaard

Publications and source records attributed to P Hougaard.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2005

Impact of IDDM2 on disease pathogenesis and progression in children with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes: reduced insulin antibody titres and preserved beta cell function.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus 2 gene (IDDM2) is a type 1 diabetes susceptibility locus contributed to by the variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) upstream of the insulin gene (INS). We investigated the association between INS VNTR class III alleles (-23HphIA/T) and both insulin antibody presentation and residual beta cell function during the first year after diagnosis in 257 children with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: To estimate C-peptide levels and autoantibody presentation, patients underwent a meal-stimulated C-peptide test 1, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis. The insulin -23HphIA/T variant was used as a marker of class III alleles and genotyped by PCR-RFLP. RESULTS: The insulin antibody titres at 1 and 6 months were significantly lower in the class III/III and class I/III genotype groups than in the class I/I genotype group (p = 0.01). Class III alleles were also associated with residual beta cell function 12 months after diagnosis and independently of age, sex, BMI, insulin antibody titres, and HLA-risk genotype group (p = 0.03). The C-peptide level was twice as high among class III/III genotypes as in class I/I and class I/III genotypes (319 vs 131 and 166 pmol/l, p=0.01). Furthermore, the class III/III genotype had a 1.1% reduction in HbA(1)c after adjustment for insulin dose (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest a direct connection in vivo between INS VNTR class III alleles, a decreased humoral immune response to insulin, and preservation of beta cell function in recent-onset type 1 diabetes.

C-Peptide↗

PubMed2002

Prediction of severe hypoglycaemia by angiotensin-converting enzyme activity and genotype in type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We have previously shown a strong relationship between high angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) activity, presence of the deletion (D) allele of the ACEgene and recall of severe hypoglycaemic events in patients with Type 1 diabetes. This study was carried out to assess this relationship prospectively. METHODS: We followed 171 adult outpatients with Type 1 diabetes in a one-year observational study with the recording of severe hypoglycaemia. Participants were characterised by serum ACE activity and ACE genotype and not treated with ACE inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor antagonists. RESULTS: There was a positive relationship between serum ACE activity and rate of severe hypoglycaemia with a 2.7 times higher rate in the fourth quartile of ACE activity compared to the first quartile (p=0.0007). A similar relationship was observed for the subset of episodes with coma (2.9 times higher rate in fourth quartile compared to first quartile; p=0.048). The impact of serum ACE activity was most pronounced in C-peptide negative subjects (4.2 times higher rate in fourth quartile compared to first quartile; p=0.003), and in this subgroup carriers of the D allele of the ACEgene had higher rates of severe hypoglycaemia compared to the group homozygous for the insertion (I) allele. In a multiple regression analysis high serum ACE activity and impaired awareness of hypoglycaemia were identified as the only significant predictors of severe hypoglycemia. CONCLUSION: High ACE activity and the presence of the D allele of the ACE gene predict a high rate of severe hypoglycaemia in Type 1 diabetes.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Activity of angiotensin-converting enzyme and risk of severe hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: The insertion (I) allele of the angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) gene occurs at increased frequency in endurance athletes. This association suggests that low ACE activity is favourable for performance in conditions with limited substrate availability. Such conditions occur in endurance athletes during competition and in diabetic patients during insulin-induced hypoglycaemia. Patients rely on preserved functional capacity to recognise hypoglycaemic episodes and avoid progression by self-treatment. We studied whether ACE activity is related to the risk of severe hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Consecutive adult outpatients with type 1 diabetes, untreated with ACE inhibitors or angiotensin-II-receptor antagonists (n=207) reported their experience of mild and severe hypoglycaemia during the previous 1 year and 2 years. The patients were further characterised by diabetes history, degree of hypoglycaemia awareness, measurement of C-peptide, haemoglobin A(1c), and serum ACE concentrations, and determination of ACE genotype. FINDINGS: Patients with the DD genotype had a relative risk of severe hypoglycaemia in the preceding 2 years of 3.2 (95% CI 1.4-7.4) compared with those who had the II genotype. There was a significant relation between serum ACE activity and the rate of severe hypoglycaemia (relative risk per 10 U/L increment 1.4 [1.2-1.6]), corresponding to a 3.5 times higher risk for patients in the highest quartile than for those in the lowest quartile. Multiple regression analysis showed that the effect of the ACE genotype was explained by its influence on serum ACE activity and that the only other significant determinants of the risk of severe hypoglycaemia were the degree of hypoglycaemia awareness, b-cell function, and duration of diabetes of more than 20 years. INTERPRETATION: ACE activity is a clinically significant marker of the risk of severe hypoglycaemia in patients with type 1 diabetes, especially in those with impaired defence against hypoglycaemia. These findings need to be confirmed in prospective studies.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Good metabolic control is associated with better quality of life in 2,101 adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: It is unclear whether the demands of good metabolic control or the consequences of poor control have a greater influence on quality of life (QOL) for adolescents with diabetes. This study aimed to assess these relations in a large international cohort of adolescents with diabetes and their families. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The study involved 2,101 adolescents, aged 10-18 years, from 21 centers in 17 countries in Europe, Japan, and North America. Clinical and demographic data were collected from March through August 1998. HbA(1c) was analyzed centrally (normal range 4.4-6.3%; mean 5.4%). Adolescent QOL was assessed by a previously developed Diabetes Quality of Life (DQOL) questionnaire for adolescents, measuring the impact of diabetes, worries about diabetes, satisfaction with life, and health perception. Parents and health professionals assessed family burden using newly constructed questionnaires. RESULTS: Mean HbA(1c) was 8.7% (range 4.8-17.4). Lower HbA(1c) was associated with lower impact (P < 0.0001), fewer worries (P < 0.05), greater satisfaction (P < 0.0001), and better health perception (P < 0.0001) for adolescents. Girls showed increased worries (P < 0.01), less satisfaction, and poorer health perception (P < 0.01) earlier than boys. Parent and health professional perceptions of burden decreased with age of adolescent (P < 0.0001). Patients from ethnic minorities had poorer scores for impact (P < 0.0001), worries (P < 0.05), and health perception (P < 0.01). There was no correlation between adolescent and parent or between adolescent and professional scores. CONCLUSIONS: In a multiple regression model, lower HbA(1c) was significantly associated with better adolescent-rated QOL on all four subscales and with lower perceived family burden as assessed by parents and health professionals.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Persistent differences among centers over 3 years in glycemic control and hypoglycemia in a study of 3,805 children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes from the Hvidøre Study Group.

OBJECTIVE: Twenty-one international pediatric diabetes centers from 17 countries investigated the effect of simple feedback about the grand mean HbA(1c) level of all centers and the average value of each center on changes in metabolic control, rate of severe hypoglycemia, and insulin therapy over a 3-year period. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Clinical data collection and determination of HbA(1c) levels were conducted at a central location in 1995 (n = 2,780, age 0-18 years) and 1998 (n = 2,101, age 11-18 years). RESULTS: Striking differences in average HbA(1c) concentrations were found among centers; these differences remained after adjustment for the significant confounders of sex, age, and diabetes duration. They were apparent even in patients with short diabetes duration and remained stable 3 years later (mean adjusted HbA(1c) level: 8.62 +/- 0.03 vs. 8.67 +/- 0.04 [1995 vs. 1998, respectively]). Three centers had improved significantly, four centers had deteriorated significantly in their overall adjusted HbA(1c) levels, and 14 centers had not changed in glycemic control. During the observation period, there were increases in the adjusted insulin dose by 0.076 U/kg, the adjusted number of injections by 0.23 injections per day, and the adjusted BMI by 0.95 kg/m(2). The 1995 versus 1998 difference in glycemic control for the seven centers could not be explained by prevailing insulin regimens or rates of hypoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals significant outcome differences among large international pediatric diabetes centers. Feedback and comparison of HbA(1c) levels led to an intensification of insulin therapy in most centers, but improved glycemic control in only a few.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2000

Fisher information for two gamma frailty bivariate Weibull models.

The asymptotic properties of frailty models for multivariate survival data are not well understood. To study this aspect, the Fisher information is derived in the standard bivariate gamma frailty model, where the survival distribution is of Weibull form conditional on the frailty. For comparison, the Fisher information is also derived in the bivariate gamma frailty model, where the marginal distribution is of Weibull form.

Bacterial Infections↗

PubMed1999

Multi-state models: a review.

Multi-state models are models for a process, for example describing a life history of an individual, which at any time occupies one of a few possible states. This can describe several possible events for a single individual, or the dependence between several individuals. The events are the transitions between the states. This class of models allows for an extremely flexible approach that can model almost any kind of longitudinal failure time data. This is particularly relevant for modeling different events, which have an event-related dependence, like occurrence of disease changing the risk of death. It can also model paired data. It is useful for recurrent events, but has limitations. The Markov models stand out as much simpler than other models from a probability point of view, and this simplifies the likelihood evaluation. However, in many cases, the Markov models do not fit satisfactorily, and happily, it is reasonably simple to study non-Markov models, in particular the Markov extension models. This also makes it possible to consider, whether the dependence is of short-term or long-term nature. Applications include the effect of heart transplantation on the mortality and the mortality among Danish twins.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1999

Plasma homocysteine concentration predicts mortality in non-insulin-dependent diabetic patients with and without albuminuria.

BACKGROUND: A high plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) concentration is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease in the nondiabetic population and in nondiabetic patients with end-stage renal disease. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the impact of tHcy concentrations on mortality in 211 white non-insulin-dependent diabetic (NIDDM) patients of less than 70 years of age at entry (61 with microalbuminuria and 44 with macroalbuminuria). They were followed for a median of 6.4 (range 0.2 to 7.1) years. RESULTS: At the end of the follow-up period, 49 of 211 (23%) patients had died, 30 (61%) from cardiovascular disease. Univariate Cox survival analysis revealed that baseline tHcy level (1 micromol/liter) was associated with an increased all-cause mortality risk of 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08 to 1.15, P < 0.0001], and a cardiovascular mortality risk of 1.09 (CI 1.03 to 1.16, P < 0.01). The six-year cumulative all-cause mortality hazard was 44%, 14%, and 15% in the high (tHcy >/= 8.2 micromol/liter), the middle (tHcy 6. 2-8.1 micromol/liter), and the low (tHcy </= 6.1 micromol/liter) tertile of tHcy levels, respectively (P < 0.001 high vs. middle; P < 0.001 high vs. low; and P = 0.88 middle vs. low). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed significant predictors of all-cause mortality to be tHcy level (per 1 micromol/liter), relative risk 1.09 (1.03 to 1.14); pre-existing coronary heart disease (yes vs. no), relative risk 1.98 (1.09 to 3.61); log10 albumin excretion rate (AER; factor 10), relative risk 1.89 (1.31 to 2.74); and age (per 1 year), relative risk 1.08 (1.03 to 1.13). Predictors of cardiovascular mortality were pre-existing coronary heart disease, log10 AER, and age. tHcy level did not predict cardiovascular mortality independently of these risk factors. CONCLUSION: Plasma tHcy concentration is a significant predictor of mortality in NIDDM patients with or without albuminuria.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Fundamentals of survival data.

Survival data stand out as a special statistical field. This paper tries to describe what survival data is and what makes it so special. Survival data concern times to some events. A key point is the successive observation of time, which on the one hand leads to some times not being observed so that all that is known is that they exceed some given times (censoring), and on the other hand implies that predictions regarding the future course should be conditional on the present status (truncation). In the simplest case, this condition is that the individual is alive. The successive conditioning makes the hazard function, which describes the probability of an event happening during a short interval given that the individual is alive today (or more generally able to experience the event), the most relevant concept. Standard distributions available (normal, log-normal, gamma, inverse Gaussian, and so forth) can account for censoring and truncation, but this is cumbersome. Besides, they fit badly because they are either symmetric or right skewed, but survival time distributions can easily be left-skewed positive variables. A few distributions satisfying these requirements are available, but often nonparametric methods are preferable as they account better conceptually for truncation and censoring and give a better fit. Finally, we compare the proportional hazards regression models with accelerated failure time models.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed1998

[Significant risk factors for development of microalbuminuria and diabetic nephropathy in patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes].

Putative risk factors for the development of incipient diabetic nephropathy (persistent microalbuminuria) and overt diabetic nephropathy (persistent macroalbuminuria) were evaluated prospectively in Caucasian non-insulin dependent diabetic (NIDDM) patients. All NIDDM patients < 66 years, with normoalbuminuria (albumin excretion rate [AER] < 30 mg/24 h), attending our clinic during 1987 were identified (n = 191). The patients were followed for a median of 5.8 years. Fifteen of the 191 patients were lost to follow-up. Thirty-six of the remaining 176 patients developed persistent microalbuminuria (AER 30-299 mg/24 h) and five developed persistent macroalbuminuria (AER less than or equal to 300 mg/24 h) during follow-up. The five-year cumulative incidence of incipient diabetic nephropathy was 23% (95% confidence interval 17% to 30%). Baseline log10 AER, male gender, presence of retinopathy, S-cholesterol, HbA1c, and age was found to predict the development of incipient/overt diabetic nephropathy in these patients.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

[Risk factors for mortality in patients with insulin-dependent diabetes].

The prognostic significance of microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria and other putative risk factors for mortality in insulin-dependent diabetic patients were evaluated in a 10 year prospective study. We identified 939 insulin-dependent diabetic patients; 593 patients had normoalbuminuria (< or = 30 mg/24 h), 181 had microalbuminuria (31-299 mg/24 h), and 165 had macroalbuminuria (> or = 300 mg/24 h). Fifteen percent of patients with normoalbuminuria, 25% with microalbuminuria and 44% with macroalbuminuria at baseline died during follow-up (p < or = 0.01). Significant predictors of all-cause mortality were male sex, age, height, smoking, low social class, urinary albumin excretion, hypertension, serum creatinine, and HbA1c. Age, smoking, microalbuminuria, overt nephropathy, and hypertension were significant predictors of cardiovascular mortality. The mortality in patients with microalbuminuria was only slightly increased compared to patients with normoalbuminuria. Median survival after onset of overt diabetic nephropathy was 13.9 (11.8 to 17.2) years. Abnormally elevated urinary albumin excretion and other potentially modifiable risk factors such as hypertension, smoking, poor glycaemic control and social class predicts increased mortality in insulin-dependent diabetic patients.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

Insulin management and metabolic control of type 1 diabetes mellitus in childhood and adolescence in 18 countries. Hvidøre Study Group on Childhood Diabetes.

Insulin regimens and metabolic control in children and adolescents with Type 1 diabetes mellitus were evaluated in a cross-sectional, non-population-based investigation, involving 22 paediatric departments, from 18 countries in Europe, Japan, and North America. Blood samples and information were collected from 2873 children from March to August 1995. HbA1c was determined once and analysed centrally (normal range 4.4-6.3%, mean 5.4%). Year of birth, sex, duration of diabetes, height, body weight, number of daily insulin injections, types and doses of insulin were recorded. Average HbA1c in children under 11 years was 8.3 +/- 1.3% (mean +/- SD) compared with 8.9 +/- 1.8% in those aged 12-18 years. The average insulin dose per kg body weight was almost constant (0.65 U kg(-1) 24 h(-1)) in children aged 2-9 years for both sexes, but there was a sharp increase during the pubertal years, particularly in girls. The increase in BMI of children with diabetes was much faster during adolescence compared to healthy children, especially in females. Sixty per cent of the children (n = 1707) used two daily insulin injections while 37% (n = 1071) used three or more. Of those on two or three injections daily, 37% used pre-mixed insulins, either alone or in combination with short- and intermediate-acting insulin. Pre-adolescent children on pre-mixed insulin showed similar HbA1c levels to those on a combination of short- and long-acting insulins, whereas in adolescents significantly better HbA1c values were achieved with individual combinations. Very young children were treated with a higher proportion of long-acting insulin. Among adolescent boys, lower HbA1c was related to use of more short-acting insulin. This association was not found in girls. We conclude that numerous insulin injection regimens are currently used in paediatric diabetes centres around the world, with an increasing tendency towards intensive diabetes management, particularly in older adolescents. Nevertheless, the goal of near normoglycaemia is achieved in only a few.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

Significant reduction of the antiatherogenic effect of estrogen by long-term inhibition of nitric oxide synthesis in cholesterol-clamped rabbits.

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether endothelium-derived nitric oxide (NO) is involved in the plasma lipid-independent antiatherogenic effect of estrogen and levormeloxifene, a partial estrogen receptor agonist. 85 rabbits were ovariectomized and balloon-injured in the middle thoracic aorta. The rabbits were fed a cholesterol-enriched diet supplemented with 17beta-estradiol, levormeloxifene, or placebo, either alone, or together with 160 microg/ml NG-nitro- -arginine methyl ester (-NAME), an NO synthase inhibitor, in their drinking water for 12 wk. Plasma cholesterol was maintained at 25-30 mmol/liter by individualized cholesterol feeding. In the undamaged aorta, the extent of atherosclerosis in the estrogen group was only one-third that in the placebo group. Simultaneous administration of -NAME, however, significantly reduced the antiatherogenic effect of estrogen (P < 0.01). There was no significant difference between the placebo group given -NAME and the group treated with placebo alone. At the previously endothelium-denuded site, estrogen had no effect on atherosclerosis development, whereas -NAME combined with estrogen significantly increased atherogenesis (P < 0.05). The effects of levormeloxifene were almost similar to those of estrogen. Active vascular concentrations of -NAME were demonstrated in an additional study, in which maximal aortic/coronary endothelium-dependent relaxation was significantly inhibited in rabbits given -NAME. Thus, in this study a considerable part of the plasma lipid-independent antiatherogenic effect of estrogen was mediated through its effect on endothelial NO in cholesterol-fed rabbits. The results for levormeloxifene suggest a common mechanism of action for estrogen and partial estrogen receptor agonists on atherogenesis.

Acetylcholine↗

PubMed1997

Risk factors for development of incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy in patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus: prospective, observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate putative risk factors for the development of incipient diabetic nephropathy (persistent microalbuminuria) and overt diabetic nephropathy (persistent macroalbuminuria) in patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes. DESIGN: Prospective, observational study of a cohort of white, non-insulin dependent diabetic patients followed for a median period of 5.8 years. SETTING: Outpatient clinic in tertiary referral centre. SUBJECTS: 191 patients aged under 66 years with non-insulin dependent diabetes and normoalbuminuria (urinary albumin excretion rate < 30 mg/24 h) who attended the clinic during 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy. RESULTS: Fifteen patients were lost to follow up. Thirty six of the 176 remaining developed persistent microalbuminuria (30-299 mg/24 h in two out of three consecutive 24 hour urine collections) and five developed persistent macroalbuminuria (> or = mg/24 h in two out of three consecutive collections) during follow up. The five year cumulative incidence of incipient diabetic nephropathy was 23% (95% confidence interval 17% to 30%). Cox's multiple stepwise regression analysis revealed the following risk factors for the development of incipient or overt diabetic nephropathy: increased baseline log urinary albumin excretion rate (relative risk 11.1 (3.4 to 35.9); P < 0.0001); male sex (2.6 (1.2 to 5.4); P < 0.02); presence of retinopathy (2.4 (1.3 to 4.7); P < 0.01); increased serum cholesterol concentration (1.4 (1.1 to 1.7); P < 0.01); haemoglobin A1c concentration (1.2 (1.0 to 1.4); P < 0.05); and age (1.07 (1.02 to 1.12); P < 0.01). Known duration of diabetes, body mass index, arterial blood pressure, serum creatinine concentration, pre-existing coronary heart disease, and history of smoking were not risk factors. CONCLUSION: Several potentially modifiable risk factors predict the development of incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy in normoalbuminuric patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Comparison of metabolic control in a cross-sectional study of 2,873 children and adolescents with IDDM from 18 countries. The Hvidøre Study Group on Childhood Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To obtain an estimate of the current level of metabolic control in children and adolescents with IDDM, the Hvidøre Study Group on Childhood Diabetes decided to establish a formal collaboration among countries to gather and exchange data for comparative purposes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This cross-sectional non-population-based survey involved 22 pediatric departments from 18 countries in Europe, Japan, and North America. Blood samples and information were collected from March through August 1995 on 2,873 children who were born in 1977 or later and seen in the outpatient clinics. HbA1c levels were determined once and analyzed centrally (normal range, 4.4-6.3%; mean, 5.4%). Year of birth, sex, duration of diabetes, height, body weight, insulin regimen, and number of episodes of severe hypoglycemia during the past 3 months were recorded. RESULTS: Average HbA1c was 8.6 +/- 1.7%, but varied significantly (P < 0.0001) between centers. Hypoglycemia resulting in unconsciousness and/or seizures was related to younger age (0-8 years) and lower HbA1c level. The incidence, based on the 3-month period, was 22 per 100 patient-years. Sixty percent of the children (n = 1,707) had two injections daily, while 37% (n = 1,071) were on three or more. HbA1c increased during maturation for both sexes. No difference in glycemic control was found among adolescents treated with two, three, and four or more daily injections. Adolescents on four or more injections received significantly (P < 0.001) more insulin. Girls on four or more injections had significantly (P < 0.01) higher BMI than girls on twice-daily insulin. CONCLUSIONS: In the participating centers with a multidisciplinary team, only one third of the patients had an HbA1c level of < 8%.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

Analysis of overdispersed count data by mixtures of Poisson variables and Poisson processes.

Count data often show overdispersion compared to the Poisson distribution. Overdispersion is typically modeled by a random effect for the mean, based on the gamma distribution, leading to the negative binomial distribution for the count. This paper considers a larger family of mixture distributions, including the inverse Gaussian mixture distribution. It is demonstrated that it gives a significantly better fit for a data set on the frequency of epileptic seizures. The same approach can be used to generate counting processes from Poisson processes, where the rate or the time is random. A random rate corresponds to variation between patients, whereas a random time corresponds to variation within patients.

Anticonvulsants↗

PubMed1996

[Albuminuria and glycemic control. The significance for mortality in non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus].

The impact of microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria on mortality was evaluated prospectively in 328 Caucasian patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) followed for five years. One hundred and ninety-one patients with normoalbuminuria (albumin excretion rate (AER) < 30 mg/24 h), 86 patients with microalbuminuria (AER 30-299 mg/24 h), and 51 patients with macroalbuminuria (AER > or = 300 mg/24 h) all less than 66 years old at start of the study were followed from 1987 until death or until 1 January 1993. Eight percent of patients with normoalbuminuria, 20% of patients with microalbuminuria, and 35% of patients with macroalbuminuria had died, predominantly from cardiovascular disease. Significant predictors of all-cause mortality included preexisting coronary heart disease, AER, HbA1c level and age. Significant predictors of cardiovascular mortality included preexisting coronary heart disease, macroalbuminuria, HbA1c level and systolic blood pressure. Abnormally elevated urinary albumin excretion and poor glycaemic control indicate a substantially increased all-cause, mainly cardiovascular, mortality risk in NIDDM patients.

Adult↗

PubMed1996

Predictors of mortality in insulin dependent diabetes: 10 year observational follow up study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic significance of microalbuminuria and overt diabetic nephropathy and other putative risk factors for cardiovascular and all cause mortality in insulin dependent diabetes. DESIGN: Ten year observational follow up study. SETTING: Outpatient diabetic clinic in a tertiary referral centre. SUBJECTS: All 939 adults with insulin dependent diabetes (duration of diabetes five years or more) attending the clinic in 1984; 593 had normal urinary albumin excretion (< or = 30 mg/24 h), 181 persistent microalbuminuria (31-299 mg/24 h), and 165 overt nephropathy (> or = 300 mg/24 h). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All cause and cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: Fifteen per cent of patients (90/593) with normoalbuminuria, 25% (45/181) with microalbuminuria, and 44% (72/165) with overt nephropathy at baseline died during follow up. Cox multiple regression analysis identified the following significant predictors of all cause mortality: male sex (relative risk 2.03; 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 3.02), age (1.07; 1.06 to 1.08), height (0.96; 0.94 to 0.98), smoking (1.51; 1.09 to 2.08), social class V versus social class IV (1.70; 1.25 to 2.31), log10 urinary albumin excretion (1.45; 1.18 to 1.77), hypertension (1.63; 1.18 to 2.25), log10 serum creatinine concentration (8.96; 3.34 to 24.08), and haemoglobin A1c concentration (1.11; 1.03 to 1.20). Age, smoking, microalbuminuria, overt nephropathy, and hypertension were significant predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Mortality in patients with microalbuminuria was only slightly increased compared with that in patients with normoalbuminuria. Median survival time after the onset of overt diabetic nephropathy was 13.9 years (95% confidence interval 11.8 to 17.2 years). CONCLUSIONS: Abnormally increased urinary albumin excretion and other potentially modifiable risk factors such as hypertension, smoking, poor glycaemic control, and social class predict increased mortality in insulin dependent diabetes. Microalbuminuria by itself confers only a small increase in mortality. The prognosis of patients with overt diabetic nephropathy has improved, probably owing to effective antihypertensive treatment.

Adult↗