On stable population theory with immigration.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to P Cerone.
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Using the integral population model of Sharpe and Lotka, it is demonstrated that if the time variation of the maternity function is assumed to only affect the parent population, then standard methods of obtaining the long-term behavior may still be used. Further, if the net maternity function has explicit time dependence, in contrast to age dependence, only for time less than the minimum age of childbearing, the standard techniques still may be used. It is shown that the recent extensions of Cerone and Keane to include exponential time dependence may be applied, together with the above observations, to define piecewise time-dependent net maternity functions and to determine the resulting long-term asymptotic behavior of the population. The population management problem of determining the time path of change needed to approach a given population also is considered in some detail.
The momentum of population growth problem of Keyfitz is generalized to contain a gradual change of the age-specific birth rate ro the level of bare replacement. Assuming a time dependence for the net maternity function of the form (formula: see text) R being the net reproductive rate, we show that for the Malthusian model the asymptotic birth rate is increased by exp (r/lambda), where r is the rate of increase of the population before t = 0. A numerical method for obtaining the asymptotic birth rate for a general net maternity function with the same time dependence is outlined.
The asymptotic birth rate for a one-sex population in which the net maternity function changes to one of bare replacement was first discussed by Keyfitz and has since been studied by several authors. The present generalization allows for a time dependent transition from any net maternity function to another and, thus, includes all previous models.
"In this endeavor to incorporate net migration in a model of population growth, we have found that when net maternity rates are held constant, birth trajectories can be traced in several examples. We have basically experimented with (a) unchanging age-specific net migration rates and also with (b) constant number of net migrants with unchanging age composition. In most cases, the birth trajectory approaches an exponential pattern of growth with two interesting exceptions. When the intrinsic rate of growth is negative, the population approaches stationarity in the second example. Also a linear trend is found in the same example, when the net reproduction rate is equal to one." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA)
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