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O Johnell

Publications and source records attributed to O Johnell.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Latitude, socioeconomic prosperity, mobile phones and hip fracture risk.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological observations suggest that sunlight exposure is an important determinant of hip fracture risk. The aim of this ecological study was to examine the relationship between latitude and hip fracture probability. METHODS: Hip fracture incidence and mortality were obtained from literature searches and 10-year hip fracture probability computed from fracture and death hazards. RESULTS: There was a significant association between latitude and 10-year hip fracture probability. For each 10 degrees change in latitude from the equator (e.g., from Paris to Stockholm), fracture probability increased by 0.3% in men, by 0.8% in women and by 0.6% in men and women combined. There was also a significant association between economic prosperity and hip fracture risk as judged by gross domestic product (GDP)/capita or the use of mobile phones/capita. A US $10,000 higher GDP/capita was associated with a 1.3% increase in hip fracture probability. The association between latitude and hip fracture probability persisted after adjusting for indices of economic prosperity. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide support for an important role of sunlight exposure in the global variation of hip fracture risk. In addition, there is a need to identify the factors related to socioeconomic prosperity that may provide mechanisms for the variation in hip fracture probability worldwide.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

An estimate of the worldwide prevalence and disability associated with osteoporotic fractures.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to quantify the global burden of osteoporotic fracture worldwide. METHODS: The incidence of hip fractures was identified by systematic review and the incidence of osteoporotic fractures was imputed from the incidence of hip fractures in different regions of the world. Excess mortality and disability weights used age- and sex-specific data from Sweden to calculate the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost due to osteoporotic fracture. RESULTS: In the year 2000 there were an estimated 9.0 million osteoporotic fractures of which 1.6 million were at the hip, 1.7 million at the forearm and 1.4 million were clinical vertebral fractures. The greatest number of osteoporotic fractures occurred in Europe (34.8%). The total DALYs lost was 5.8 million of which 51% were accounted for by fractures that occurred in Europe and the Americas. World-wide, osteoporotic fractures accounted for 0.83% of the global burden of non-communicable disease and was 1.75% of the global burden in Europe. In Europe, osteoporotic fractures accounted for more DALYs lost than common cancers with the exception of lung cancer. For chronic musculo-skeletal disorders the DALYs lost in Europe due to osteoporosis (2.0 million) were less than for osteoarthrosis (3.1 million) but greater than for rheumatoid arthritis (1.0 million). CONCLUSION: We conclude that osteoporotic fractures are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly in the developed countries.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

SHBG gene promoter polymorphisms in men are associated with serum sex hormone-binding globulin, androgen and androgen metabolite levels, and hip bone mineral density.

CONTEXT: SHBG regulates free sex steroid levels, which in turn regulate skeletal homeostasis. Twin studies have demonstrated that genetic factors largely account for interindividual variation in SHBG levels. Glucuronidated androgen metabolites have been proposed as markers of androgenic activity. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to investigate whether polymorphisms in the SHBG gene promoter [(TAAAA)(n) microsatellite and rs1799941 single-nucleotide polymorphism] are associated with serum levels of SHBG, sex steroids, or bone mineral density (BMD) in men. DESIGN AND STUDY SUBJECTS: We conducted a population-based study of two cohorts of Swedish men: elderly men (MrOS Sweden; n congruent with 3000; average age, 75.4 yr) and young adult men (GOOD study; n = 1068; average age, 18.9 yr). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured serum levels of SHBG, testosterone, estradiol, dihydrotestosterone, 5alpha-androstane-3alpha,17beta-diol glucuronides, androsterone glucuronide, and BMD determined by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: In both cohorts, (TAAAA)(n) and rs1799941 genotypes were associated with serum levels of SHBG (P < 0.001), dihydrotestosterone (P < 0.05), and 5alpha-androstane-3alpha,17beta-diol glucuronides (P < 0.05). In the elderly men, they were also associated with testosterone and BMD at all hip bone sites. The genotype associated with high levels of SHBG was also associated with high BMD. Interestingly, male mice overexpressing human SHBG had increased cortical bone mineral content in the femur, suggesting that elevated SHBG levels may cause increased bone mass. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that polymorphisms in the SHBG promoter predict serum levels of SHBG, androgens, and glucuronidated androgen metabolites, and hip BMD in men.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

At what hip fracture risk is it cost-effective to treat? International intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis.

INTRODUCTION: Intervention thresholds (ITs), the 10-year hip fracture risk at which treatment can be considered to be cost-effective, have previously been estimated for Sweden and the UK. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide a Markov cohort model platform for a multinational estimation of thresholds at which intervention becomes cost-effective and to investigate and determine the main factors behind differences in these thresholds between countries. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Intervention thresholds were estimated for Australia, Germany, Japan, Sweden, Spain, the UK and USA using a societal perspective. The model was populated with as much relevant country-specific data as possible. Intervention was assumed to be given for 5 years and to decrease the risk of all osteoporotic fractures by 35%. The societal willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was set to the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita multiplied by two. In the base case analysis, the 10-year hip fracture probability at which intervention became cost-effective varied across ages and countries. For women starting therapy at an age of 70 years, the IT varied from a hip fracture probability of 5.6% in Japan to 14.7% in Spain. The main factors explaining differences in the IT between countries were the WTP for a QALY gained, fracture-related costs and intervention costs. CONCLUSION: The ITs presented in this paper are appropriate for use in treatment guidelines that consider health economic aspects, and they can be used in combination with fracture risk prediction algorithms to improve the selection of patients who are suitable for osteoporotic intervention.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2006

Whom to treat? The contribution of vertebral X-rays to risk-based algorithms for fracture prediction. Results from the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study.

INTRODUCTION: Vertebral fracture is a strong risk factor for future spine and hip fractures; yet recent data suggest that only 5-20% of subjects with a spine fracture are identified in primary care. We aimed to develop easily applicable algorithms predicting a high risk of future spine fracture in men and women over 50 years of age. METHODS: Data was analysed from 5,561 men and women aged 50+ years participating in the European Prospective Osteoporosis Study (EPOS). Lateral thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were taken at baseline and at an average of 3.8 years later. These were evaluated by an experienced radiologist. The risk of a new (incident) vertebral fracture was modelled as a function of age, number of prevalent vertebral fractures, height loss, sex and other fracture history reported by the subject, including limb fractures occurring between X-rays. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of models. RESULTS: In a negative binomial regression model without baseline X-ray data, the risk of incident vertebral fracture significantly increased with age [RR 1.74, 95% CI (1.44, 2.10) per decade], height loss [1.08 (1.04, 1.12) per cm decrease], female sex [1.48 (1.05, 2.09)], and recalled fracture history; [1.65 (1.15, 2.38) to 3.03 (1.66, 5.54)] according to fracture site. Baseline radiological assessment of prevalent vertebral fracture significantly improved the areas subtended by ROC curves from 0.71 (0.67, 0.74) to 0.74 (0.70, 0.77) P=0.013 for predicting 1+ incident fracture; and from 0.74 (0.67, 0.81) to 0.83 (0.76, 0.90) P=0.001 for 2+ incident fractures. Age, sex and height loss remained independently predictive. The relative risk of a new vertebral fracture increased with the number of prevalent vertebral fractures present from 3.08 (2.10, 4.52) for 1 fracture to 9.36 (5.72, 15.32) for 3+. At a specificity of 90%, the model including X-ray data improved the sensitivity for predicting 2+ and 1+ incident fractures by 6 and 4 fold respectively compared with random guessing. At 75% specificity the improvements were 3.2 and 2.4 fold respectively. With the modelling restricted to the subjects who had BMD measurements (n=2,409), the AUC for predicting 1+ vs. 0 incident vertebral fractures improved from 0.72 (0.66, 0.79) to 0.76 (0.71, 0.82) upon adding femoral neck BMD (P=0.010). CONCLUSION: We conclude that for those with existing vertebral fractures, an accurately read spine X-ray will form a central component in future algorithms for targeting treatment, especially to the most vulnerable. The sensitivity of this approach to identifying vertebral fracture cases requiring anti-osteoporosis treatment, even when X-rays are ordered highly selectively, exceeds by a large margin the current standard of practice as recorded anywhere in the world.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2006

Risk factors for fragility fracture in middle age. A prospective population-based study of 33,000 men and women.

The incidence of fragility fractures begins to increase in middle age. We investigated prospectively risk factors for low-energy fractures in men and women, and specifically for forearm, proximal humerus, vertebral, and ankle fractures. The population-based Malmö Preventive Project consists of 22,444 men and 10,902 women, mean age 44 and 50 years, respectively, at inclusion. Baseline assessment included multiple examinations and lifestyle information. Mean follow-up was 19 and 15 years for men and women, respectively, regarding incident fractures. Fractures were ascertained from radiographic files. At least one low-energy fracture occurred in 1,262 men and 1,257 women. In men, the risk factors most strongly associated with low-energy fractures were diabetes [relative risk (RR) 2.38, confidence interval (CI) 95% 1.65-3.42] and hospitalization for mental health problems (RR 1.92, CI 95% 1.47-2.51). Factors associated with mental health and lifestyle significantly increased the fracture risk in most of the specific fracture groups: hospitalizations for mental health problems (RR 2.28-3.38), poor appetite (RR 3.05-3.43), sleep disturbances (RR 1.72-2.95), poor self-rated health (RR 1.80-1.83), and smoking (RR 1.70-2.72). In women, the risk factors most strongly associated with low-energy fractures were diabetes (RR 1.87, CI 95% 1.26-2.79) and previous fracture (RR 2.00, CI 95% 1.56-2.58). High body mass index (BMI) significantly increased the risk of proximal humerus and ankle fractures (RR 1.21-1.33) while, by contrast, lowering the risk of forearm fractures (RR 0.88, CI 95% 0.81-0.96). Risk factors for fracture in middle-aged men and women are similar but with gender differences for forearm, vertebral, proximal humerus, and hip fracture whereas risk factors for ankle fractures differ to a certain extent. The risk-factor pattern indicates a generally impaired health status, with mental health problems as a major contributor to fracture risk, particularly in men.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

The cost-effectiveness of risedronate in the treatment of osteoporosis: an international perspective.

INTRODUCTION: Risedronate, a bisphosphonate for treatment and prevention of osteoporosis, has been shown in several clinical trials to reduce the risk of fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. The cost-effectiveness of risedronate treatment has previously been evaluated within different country settings using different model and analysis approaches. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of risedronate in postmenopausal women in four European countries -- Sweden, Finland, Spain, and Belgium -- by making use of the same modelling framework and analysis setup. METHODS: A previously developed Markov cohort model for the evaluation of osteoporosis treatments was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of risedronate treatment. For each country, the model was populated with local mortality, fracture incidence, and cost data. Hip fractures, clinical vertebral fractures, and wrist fractures were included in the model. RESULTS: The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained from a 5-year intervention with risedronate compared to "no intervention" in 70-year-old women at the threshold of osteoporosis [T-score = -2.5 based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III data] and previous vertebral fracture was estimated to be euro 860, euro 19,532, euro 11,782, and euro 32,515 in Sweden, Finland, Belgium, and Spain, respectively. Among 70-year-old women at the threshold of osteoporosis without previous fracture the estimated cost per QALY gained ranged from euro 21,148 (Sweden) to euro 80,100 (Spain). The differences in cost-effectiveness between countries are mainly explained by different costs (fracture and treatment costs), fracture risks, and discount rates. Based on cost per QALY gained threshold values found in the literature, the study results indicated risedronate to be cost effective in the treatment of elderly women with established osteoporosis in all the included countries. CONCLUSIONS: At a hypothetical threshold value of euro 40,000 per QALY gained, the results in this study indicate that risedronate is a cost-effective treatment in elderly women at the threshold of osteoporosis (i.e., a T-score of -2.5) with prevalent vertebral fractures in Sweden, Finland, Belgium, and Spain.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2006

Daily physical education in the school curriculum in prepubertal girls during 1 year is followed by an increase in bone mineral accrual and bone width--data from the prospective controlled Malmö pediatric osteoporosis prevention study.

The aim of this study was to evaluate a general school-based 1-year exercise intervention program in a population-based cohort of girls at Tanner stage I. Fifty-three girls aged 7-9 years were included. The school curriculum-based exercise intervention program included 40 minutes/school day. Fifty healthy age-matched girls assigned to the general school curriculum of 60 minutes physical activity/week served as controls. Bone mineral content (BMC, g) and areal bone mineral density (aBMD, g/cm(2)) were measured with dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) of the total body (TB), lumbar spine (L2-L4 vertebrae), third lumbar vertebra (L3), femoral neck (FN), and leg. Volumetric bone mineral density (g/cm(3)) and bone width were calculated at L3 and FN. Total lean body mass and total fat mass were estimated from the TB scan. No differences at baseline were found in age, anthropometrics, or bone parameters when the groups were compared. The annual gain in BMC was 4.7 percentage points higher in the lumbar spine and 9.5 percentage points higher in L3 in cases than in controls (both P < 0.001). The annual gain in aBMD was 2.8 percentage points higher in the lumbar spine and 3.1 percentage points higher in L3 in cases than in controls (both P < 0.001). The annual gain in bone width was 2.9 percentage points higher in L3 in cases than in controls (P < 0.001). A general school-based exercise program in girls aged 7-9 years enhances the accrual of BMC and aBMD and increases bone width.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗
PubMed2006

The use of multiple sites for the diagnosis of osteoporosis.

INTRODUCTION: It has been suggested that bone mineral density (BMD) measurements should be made at multiple sites, and that the lowest T-score should be taken for the purpose of diagnosing osteoporosis. PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the use of BMD measurements at the femoral neck and lumbar spine alone and in combination for fracture prediction. METHODS: We studied 19,071 individuals (68% women) from six prospective population-based cohorts in whom BMD was measured at both sites and fracture outcomes documented over 73,499 patient years. BMD values were converted to Z-scores, and the gradient of risk for any osteoporotic fracture and for hip fracture was examined by using a Poisson model in each cohort and each gender separately. Results of the different studies were merged using weighted beta-coefficients. RESULTS: The gradients of risk for osteoporotic fracture and for hip fracture were similar in men and women. In men and women combined, the risk of any osteoporotic fracture increased by 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI)=1.42-1.61] per standard deviation (SD) decrease in femoral-neck BMD. For measurements made at the lumbar spine, the gradient of risk was 1.47 (95% CI=1.38-1.56). Where the minimum of the two values was used, the gradient of risk was similar (1.55; 95% CI=1.45-1.64). Higher gradients of risk were observed for hip fracture outcomes: with BMD at the femoral neck, the gradient of risk was 2.45 (95% CI=2.10-2.87), with lumbar BMD was 1.57 (95% CI=1.36-1.82), and with the minimum value of either femoral neck and lumbar spine was 2.11 (95% CI=1.81-2.45). Thus, selecting the lowest value for BMD at either the femoral neck or lumbar spine did not increase the predictive ability of BMD tests. By contrast, the sensitivity increased so that more individuals were identified but at the expense of specificity. Thus, the same effect could be achieved by using a less stringent T-score for the diagnosis of osteoporosis. CONCLUSIONS: Since taking the minimum value of the two measurements does not improve predictive ability, its clinical utility for the diagnosis of osteoporosis is low.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗
PubMed2005

Development of the Qualeffo-31, an osteoporosis-specific quality-of-life questionnaire.

INTRODUCTION: Vertebral deformities are a common consequence of osteoporosis and are known to decrease quality of life. The Qualeffo-41 is a quality-of-life questionnaire especially developed for measuring quality of life in patients with vertebral deformities. It consists of 41 questions arranged in five domains: pain, physical function, social function, general health perception, and mental function. The objectives of this study were: (1) to develop a shorter version of the Qualeffo-41 by removing redundant questions; and (2) to investigate the scale characteristics, reliability, and validity of this shorter version. METHODS: The study was performed using data from the Qualeffo validation study and the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) study. The analyses were performed in patients with vertebral deformities (n=579). Factor analysis on polychoric correlations and an item response theory (IRT) model, i.e., the generalized partial credit model (GPCM), were used to create a shorter version of Qualeffo-41. Using GPCM, scoring weights were computed for all items. RESULTS: Three items were removed from the data set because of too many missing values. Factor analysis identified three instead of five domains: (1) pain, (2) physical function, and (3) mental function. Five items had factor loadings <0.4 and were not included in the GPCM. After excluding several items, the domains pain (four items), physical function (18 items), and mental function (nine items) showed a good, reasonable, and excellent fit, respectively. This indicates that the mental function domain and the pain domain are more unidimensional than the physical function domain. All three domains showed a very high correlation (r > or =0.95) with the corresponding domains of the Qualeffo-41. CONCLUSIONS: Qualeffo-31 was developed, consisting of three domains with a reasonable to excellent fit to the GPCM. Although the fit to the GPCM supports the construct validity of the Qualeffo-31, validation in a new study should be performed before using it in practice.

Activities of Daily Living↗
PubMed2005

Economic evaluation of parathyroid hormone (PTH) in the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.

Parathyroid hormone (PTH) is a new treatment for osteoporosis and has been shown to reduce the risks of vertebral and non-vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women in clinical trials. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of teriparatide in addition to calcium and vitamin D, using a simulation model. The base case analysis was conducted for a cohort of 69-year-old women in Sweden who had at least one previous vertebral fracture and low bone mineral density. The model simulated the course of events in 6-month cycles in individual patients until death or 100 years of age. During each cycle the patients were at risk of experiencing clinical vertebral, hip or wrist fractures, or death. Total accumulated life-time costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated. Swedish data on fracture costs, utility reductions after fracture, fracture risks and mortality rates were used. The model incorporated new epidemiological evidence that indicates fracture risks and mortality rates are higher in the subsequent years post-fracture. The results showed that the cost-effectiveness of the treatment is highly dependant on the risk profile of the treated patients and the timing of starting treatment relative to previous fractures. The cost per QALY gained for treatment of a population of 69-year-olds with a T-score at the femoral neck of -3 was in the base case estimated to be between EUR (euro) 20,000 and 64,000 for patients with a recent or historic vertebral fracture respectively. The study provides further evidence of the benefit and cost-effectiveness of starting osteoporotic treatments early in patients with a new fracture, and also that teriparatide may provide valuable clinical benefits for these patients and may be considered a cost-effective intervention when targeted to the appropriate patients.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Body mass index as a predictor of fracture risk: a meta-analysis.

Low body mass index (BMI) is a well-documented risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this effect and to explore the association of BMI with fracture risk in relation to age, gender and bone mineral density (BMD) from an international perspective using worldwide data. We studied individual participant data from almost 60,000 men and women from 12 prospective population-based cohorts comprising Rotterdam, EVOS/EPOS, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Dubbo, EPIDOS, OFELY, Kuopio, Hiroshima, and two cohorts from Gothenburg, with a total follow-up of over 250,000 person years. The effects of BMI, BMD, age and gender on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson regression model in each cohort separately. The results of the different studies were then merged. Without information on BMD, the age-adjusted risk for any type of fracture increased significantly with lower BMI. Overall, the risk ratio (RR) per unit higher BMI was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-0.99) for any fracture, 0.97 (95% CI, 0.96-0.98) for osteoporotic fracture and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.91-0.94) for hip fracture (all p <0.001). The RR per unit change in BMI was very similar in men and women ( p >0.30). After adjusting for BMD, these RR became 1 for any fracture or osteoporotic fracture and 0.98 for hip fracture (significant in women). The gradient of fracture risk without adjustment for BMD was not linearly distributed across values for BMI. Instead, the contribution to fracture risk was much more marked at low values of BMI than at values above the median. This nonlinear relation of risk with BMI was most evident for hip fracture risk. When compared with a BMI of 25 kg/m(2), a BMI of 20 kg/m(2) was associated with a nearly twofold increase in risk ratio (RR=1.95; 95% CI, 1.71-2.22) for hip fracture. In contrast, a BMI of 30 kg/m(2), when compared with a BMI of 25 kg/m(2), was associated with only a 17% reduction in hip fracture risk (RR=0.83; 95% CI, 0.69-0.99). We conclude that low BMI confers a risk of substantial importance for all fractures that is largely independent of age and sex, but dependent on BMD. The significance of BMI as a risk factor varies according to the level of BMI. Its validation on an international basis permits the use of this risk factor in case-finding strategies.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Long-term morbidity and mortality after a clinically diagnosed vertebral fracture in the elderly--a 12- and 22-year follow-up of 257 patients.

The objective of this study was to analyze the long-term morbidity and mortality in patients with a clinically diagnosed vertebral fracture. Seventy men with a mean age of 70 years (range 50-91 years) and 187 women with a mean age of 72 years (range 50-96 years) were radiographically diagnosed as having a vertebral fracture in the thoracic or lumbar spine at the Malmö University Hospital (Sweden) during 1979. At the time of a follow-up examination 12 years later, 56 of the 76 patients who were still alive participated in an investigation that evaluated back pain and subjective health status by a questionnaire. Forty-four of these subjects also participated in a further radiologic examination of the spine. Serving as controls were age- and gender-matched subjects from the Malmö cohort of the European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study (EVOS). A mortality analysis was also conducted, covering 22 years following the baseline fracture. There were more female patients, who, in comparison with the controls, 12 years after the diagnosis, had had back pain during the year preceding the follow-up (72% vs 33%, P < 0.001), had current back pain (42% vs. 19%, P = 0.006), and had a subjectively impaired health status (44% vs. 17%, P < 0.001). The corresponding differences in men reached only a borderline significance, for both back pain during the year preceding the follow-up (60% vs. 28%, P = 0.07) and current back pain (40% vs. 15%, P = 0.09), whereas there was no difference in subjective health status. The incidence of new vertebral fractures in individuals with a clinically diagnosed vertebral fracture during the following 12 years was in men 25 per 1,000 person-years and in women 49 per 1000 person-years. There were more women with a new vertebral fracture at the 12-year follow-up examination who, in comparison with women without a new fracture, had had back pain during the year preceding the follow-up examination (90% vs. 50%, age-adjusted P = 0.02) and had current back pain (65% vs. 21%, age-adjusted P = 0.03). Women with a new vertebral fracture at the 12-year follow-up examination had a higher subsequent mortality rate in the next 10 years [age-adjusted hazard ratio 2.8 (95% CI 1.0-7.9)] as compared with women without. The mortality rate during the 22 years following the diagnosis among the male patients was 111.7 per 1,000 person-years as compared with 73.4 per 1,000 person-years among the male population at risk. The mortality rate among the female patients was 95.1 per 1,000 person-years as compared with 62.0 per 1,000 person-years among the female population at risk. We conclude that a clinically diagnosed thoracic or lumbar vertebral fracture in the elderly can be regarded as a risk factor for subsequent, long-term morbidity, especially in women, and for mortality in both genders.

Aged↗
PubMed2004

Requirements for DXA for the management of osteoporosis in Europe.

The availability of dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) varies markedly in different countries. There is, however, little information to indicate the optimal requirements for this technology. The principal aim of this study was to estimate the requirements for DXA in Europe for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis. Three assessment scenarios were chosen. The first envisaged screening of all women with DXA at the age of 65 years. A second scenario comprised a screening programme based on the identification of clinical risk factors with the selective addition of BMD tests in those close to an intervention threshold. The third scenario envisaged a case finding strategy where women aged 65 years were identified on the basis of risk factors and referred for DXA. Requirements for women aged more than 65 years were amortised over a 10-year period. A secondary aim was to estimate the number and cost of osteoporotic fractures in Europe. The requirements for DXA in assessment ranged from 4.21 to 11.21 units/million of the population. The most efficient assessment scenario was the use of clinical risk factors with the selective use of BMD. With this scenario, an additional 6.39 units/million would be required to monitor treatment giving a total requirement of 10.6 units/million. In 2000, the number of osteoporotic fractures was estimated at 3.79 million, of which 0.89 million were hip fractures (179,000 hip fractures in men and 711,000 in women). The total direct costs were estimated at 31.7 billion Euros (21.165 billion UK pounds), which were expected to increase to 76.7 billion Euros (51.1 billion UK pounds) in 2050 based on the expected changes in the demography of Europe.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗
PubMed2004

Ten-year probabilities of clinical vertebral fractures according to phalangeal quantitative ultrasonography.

The objectives of the present study were to estimate 10-year probabilities of clinical vertebral fractures in women, according to age and bone mineral assessment using phalangeal quantitative ultrasound (QUS). Risks were computed from UK derived data on the incidence of a first symptomatic vertebral fracture and mortality rates for each year of age using Poisson models. The 10-year probability of vertebral fracture was determined as the proportion of individuals fracture-free at that site from the age of 45 years. We assumed that the risk of fracture increased with decreasing QUS as assessed by an independent re-analysis of a previously published, multicenter cross-sectional study. For amplitude-dependent speed of sound (AD-SoS) information was available from 8,502 women, and vertebral fracture risk increased 1.7-fold for each SD decrease in measurement. For fast wave amplitude (FWA), available in 6,573 women, the risk gradient was 2.4/SD. In a subset of the population ( n =1,572) in whom bone mineral density was measured at the lumbar spine, the gradient of risk was 2.3/SD, with similar gradients of risk noted for AD-SoS (1.8/SD) and FWA (2.6/SD). Ten-year probabilities increased with age and decreasing Z -score. The use of absolute risk permits information from different types of bone mineral measurements to be applied for the assessment of patients, either alone or in combination with other independent risk factors.

Absorptiometry, Photon↗
PubMed2004

Cost-effectiveness of raloxifene in the UK: an economic evaluation based on the MORE study.

Raloxifene treatment has been shown to reduce the risk of vertebral fractures and breast cancer in postmenopausal women. The long-term economic implications of treatment with raloxifene have not yet been investigated. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of treating postmenopausal women in the UK with raloxifene. A previously developed computer simulation model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of osteoporotic treatments with extra skeletal benefits. The model was populated with epidemiological data and cost data relevant for a UK female population. Data on the effect of treatment were taken from the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene (MORE) study, which recruited women with low bone mineral density or with a prior vertebral fracture. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and life years gained as primary outcome measures. The cost per QALY gained of treating postmenopausal women without prior vertebral fractures was 18,000 pounds, 23,000 pounds , 18,000 pounds and 21,000 pounds at 50, 60, 70 and 80 years of age. Corresponding estimates for women with prior vertebral fractures were 10,000 pounds, 24,000 pounds, 18,000 pounds and 20,000 pounds. In relation to threshold values that are recommended in the UK, the analysis suggests that raloxifene is cost-effective in the treatment of postmenopausal women at an increased risk of vertebral fractures.

Adult↗