Search PubMed⌕ Search

Biomedical subjects

O G Pybus

Publications and source records attributed to O G Pybus.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2003

The epidemiology and iatrogenic transmission of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: a Bayesian coalescent approach.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, and Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use a newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate the transmission dynamics of HCV in Egypt from sampled viral gene sequences, and to predict the public health impact of the virus. Our results indicate that the effective number of HCV infections in Egypt underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 and 1955. The timing and speed of this spread provides quantitative genetic evidence that the Egyptian HCV epidemic was initiated and propagated by extensive antischistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our results show that HCV transmission has since decreased, we conclude that HCV is likely to remain prevalent in Egypt for several decades. Our combined population genetic and epidemiological analysis provides detailed estimates of historical changes in Egyptian HCV prevalence. Because our results are consistent with a demographic scenario specified a priori, they also provide an objective test of inference methods based on the coalescent process.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2002

Genetic diversity and models of viral evolution for the hepatitis C virus.

In this review we discuss the application of theoretical frameworks to the interpretation of viral gene sequence data, with particular reference to the hepatitis C virus (HCV). The increasing availability of such data means that it is now possible (and necessary) to proceed from simple qualitative models of viral evolution, to more quantitative frameworks based on statistical inference, notably population genetics and molecular phylogenetics. We argue that these approaches are invaluable tools to the virologist and are essential for understanding the dynamics of viral infection and the outcome of therapeutic strategies. We use several recent HCV data-sets to illustrate the methods.

Genetic Variation↗
PubMed2002

New inferences from tree shape: numbers of missing taxa and population growth rates.

The relative positions of branching events in a phylogeny contain information about evolutionary and population dynamic processes. We provide new summary statistics of branching event times and describe how these statistics can be used to infer rates of species diversification from interspecies trees or rates of population growth from intraspecies trees. We also introduce a phylogenetic method for estimating the level of taxon sampling in a clade. Different evolutionary models and different sampling regimes can produce similar patterns of branching events, so it is important to consider explicitly the model assumptions involved when making evolutionary inferences. Results of an analysis of the phylogeny of the mosquito-borne flaviviruses suggest that there could be several thousand currently unidentified viruses in this clade.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

GENIE: estimating demographic history from molecular phylogenies.

UNLABELLED: GENIE implements a statistical framework for inferring the demographic history of a population from phylogenies that have been reconstructed from sampled DNA sequences. The methods are based on population genetic models known collectively as coalescent theory. AVAILABILITY: GENIE is available from http://evolve.zoo.ox.ac.uk. All popular operating systems are supported.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed2001

Using human immunodeficiency virus type 1 sequences to infer historical features of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic and human immunodeficiency virus evolution.

In earlier work, human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) sequences were analysed to estimate the timing of the ancestral sequence of the main group of HIV-1, the virus that is responsible for the acquired immune deficiency syndrome pandemic, yielding a best estimate of 1931 (95% confidence interval of 1915-1941). That work will be briefly reviewed, outlining how phylogenetic tools were extended to incorporate improved evolutionary models, how the molecular clock model was adapted to incorporate variable periods of latency, and how the approach was validated by correctly estimating the timing of two historically documented dates. The advantages, limitations, and assumptions of the approach will be summarized, with particular consideration of the implications of branch length uncertainty and recombination. We have recently undertaken new phylogenetic analysis of an extremely diverse set of human immunodeficiency virus envelope sequences from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (the DRC, formerly Zaire). This analysis both corroborates and extends the conclusions of our original study. Coalescent methods were used to infer the demographic history of the HIV-1 epidemic in the DRC, and the results suggest an increase in the exponential growth rate of the infected population through time.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2001

The epidemic behavior of the hepatitis C virus.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading worldwide cause of liver disease. Here, we use a new model of HCV spread to investigate the epidemic behavior of the virus and to estimate its basic reproductive number from gene sequence data. We find significant differences in epidemic behavior among HCV subtypes and suggest that these differences are largely the result of subtype-specific transmission patterns. Our model builds a bridge between the disciplines of population genetics and mathematical epidemiology by using pathogen gene sequences to infer the population dynamic history of an infectious disease.

Endemic Diseases↗
PubMed2001

Exploring the demographic history of DNA sequences using the generalized skyline plot.

We present an intuitive visual framework, the generalized skyline plot, to explore the demographic history of sampled DNA sequences. This approach is based on a genealogy inferred from the sequences and provides a nonparametric estimate of effective population size through time. In contrast to previous related procedures, the generalized skyline plot is more applicable to cases where the underlying tree is not fully resolved and the data is not highly variable. This is achieved by the grouping of adjacent coalescent intervals. We employ a small-sample Akaike information criterion to objectively choose the optimal grouping strategy. We investigate the performance of our approach using simulation and subsequently apply it to HIV-1 sequences from central Africa and mtDNA sequences from red pandas.

Africa↗
PubMed2000

Testing macro-evolutionary models using incomplete molecular phylogenies.

Phylogenies reconstructed from gene sequences can be used to investigate the tempo and mode of species diversification. Here we develop and use new statistical methods to infer past patterns of speciation and extinction from molecular phylogenies. Specifically, we test the null hypothesis that per-lineage speciation and extinction rates have remained constant through time. Rejection of this hypothesis may provide evidence for evolutionary events such as adaptive radiations or key adaptations. In contrast to previous approaches, our methods are robust to incomplete taxon sampling and are conservative with respect to extinction. Using simulation we investigate, first, the adverse effects of failing to take incomplete sampling into account and, second, the power and reliability of our tests. When applied to published phylogenies our tests suggest that, in some cases, speciation rates have decreased through time.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2000

An integrated framework for the inference of viral population history from reconstructed genealogies.

We describe a unified set of methods for the inference of demographic history using genealogies reconstructed from gene sequence data. We introduce the skyline plot, a graphical, nonparametric estimate of demographic history. We discuss both maximum-likelihood parameter estimation and demographic hypothesis testing. Simulations are carried out to investigate the statistical properties of maximum-likelihood estimates of demographic parameters. The simulations reveal that (i) the performance of exponential growth model estimates is determined by a simple function of the true parameter values and (ii) under some conditions, estimates from reconstructed trees perform as well as estimates from perfect trees. We apply our methods to HIV-1 sequence data and find strong evidence that subtypes A and B have different demographic histories. We also provide the first (albeit tentative) genetic evidence for a recent decrease in the growth rate of subtype B.

Africa South of the Sahara↗
PubMed1999

The mid-depth method and HIV-1: a practical approach for testing hypotheses of viral epidemic history.

We introduce the mid-depth method, a practical approach for testing hypotheses of demographic history using genealogies reconstructed from sequence data. The relative positions of internal nodes within a genealogy contain information about past population dynamics. We explain how this information can be used to (1) test the null hypothesis of constant population size and (2) estimate the growth rate and current population size of an exponentially growing population. Simulation tests indicate that, as expected, estimates of exponential growth rates are sometimes biased. The mid-depth method is computationally rapid and does not require knowledge of the sample's mutation rate. However, it does assume that the reconstructed genealogy is correct and is therefore best suited to the analysis of variation-rich viral data sets. When applied to HIV-1 sequence data, the mid-depth method provides phylogenetic evidence of different exponential growth rates for subtypes A and B. We posit that this difference in growth rate reflects the different transmission routes and epidemiological histories of the two subtypes.

HIV-1↗