Biomedical subjects

Nathalie Conrad

Publications and source records attributed to Nathalie Conrad.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2026

Prediction of incident heart failure in established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: the SMART2-HF model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are at high risk of developing heart failure (HF). However, incident HF is not part of the risk assessment of current guideline-recommended models. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate the SMART2-HF model for prediction of incident HF in patients with ASCVD. METHODS: SMART2-HF was developed in 7698 individuals with established ASCVD (coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral artery disease, or abdominal aortic aneurysm) but without prior HF from the UCC-SMART cohort. Cox proportional hazards models including sex-predictor interactions and with age as the time scale were derived to estimate the 10-year and lifetime risk of incident HF (hospitalization for HF or HF-related death), accounting for competing non-HF mortality. Predictors, limited to routinely available clinical characteristics, were aligned with the SMART2 risk model for recurrent cardiovascular (CV) risk in the same population. External validation was performed in 240 741 patients with ASCVD from six data sources: the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, the HUNT3 study, the SWEDEHEART Registry, the ASCVD-Particles cohort, the Estonian Biobank and the international REACH Registry. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.2 years (interquartile range 6.1-16.4 years), 1031 incident HF events (13%) occurred in the UCC-SMART cohort. In the external validation data sources, a total of 24 885 incident HF events (10%) occurred. The pooled C-statistic was .696 (95% confidence interval .674-.717), with consistent performance in subgroups by sex and type of ASCVD. Predicted risks matched observed incidence in external validation. CONCLUSIONS: The SMART2-HF model enables the prediction of incident HF in patients with ASCVD. Aligned with the guideline-recommended SMART2 model for recurrent CV risk, SMART2-HF can be used as a complementary tool in this population.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Risk prediction in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: the LIFE-Preserved model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) constitutes a heterogeneous disease with varying prognosis. Given the rising incidence of HFpEF, accurate risk prediction for these patients is needed to identify high-risk individuals, who may benefit the most from preventive treatments. The LIFE-Preserved model was developed and validated for the prediction of individual short-term and lifetime risk for HF hospitalization or cardiovascular (CV) death in patients with HFpEF. METHODS: LIFE-Preserved was derived in 20 332 patients aged 40-90 years with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥ 50% from the Swedish HF Registry. Cause- and sex-specific Cox models were derived to predict the risk of HF hospitalization or CV death using 14 routinely available predictors. Use of age as the timescale allowed for predictions beyond the maximum follow-up duration in the derivation data, adjusted for competing risks. External validation was performed in two trials (EMPEROR-Preserved and TOPCAT-Americas) and three registries (NHS England Secure Data Environment, Veterans Affairs, and HF-Particles). Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 1.8 years (interquartile range .6-4.2, maximum 19 years), 9341 first HF hospitalizations or CV deaths (46%) were observed in Swedish HF Registry. External validation included data from 28 062 patients with HFpEF [9930 (35%) first HF hospitalizations or CV deaths]. Pooled C-statistics were .714 (95% confidence interval .652-.775) in trials and .658 (95% confidence interval .599-.717 in registries, with adequate calibration in all external validation sources. Performance was similar in men and women. An interactive calculator of the LIFE-Preserved model has been made available here. CONCLUSIONS: The LIFE-Preserved model enables prediction of short-term and lifetime risk of HF hospitalization or CV death in patients with HFpEF. The model could serve as a tool to identify high-risk HFpEF patients, guiding clinical management and shared decision-making.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

Clonal Hematopoiesis and Risk of New-Onset Myocarditis and Pericarditis.

IMPORTANCE: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is the age-related clonal expansion of hematopoietic stem cells with leukemia-associated mutations. Certain CHIP mutations promote atherosclerosis and heart failure through immune-related pathways. OBJECTIVE: To test whether CHIP is associated with the development of myocarditis and pericarditis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This observational population-based cohort study used data from the UK Biobank. Enrollment occurred between 2006 and 2010. Participants with whole-exome sequencing, no prevalent cardiovascular disease or hematological malignancy, and complete covariate data were included. Follow-up occurred for a median of 13.6 (IQR, 12.8-14.2) years. Analyses were conducted from November 2024 to July 2025. EXPOSURES: Any CHIP (variant allele frequency [VAF] ≥2%) and large CHIP (VAF ≥10%) constituted coprimary study exposures. Secondary analyses considered DNMT3A and TET2 CHIP as separate exposures. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite of incident myocarditis and pericarditis. Cox regression tested associations of CHIP with myocarditis and pericarditis, adjusting for age, sex, race and ancestry, and cardiovascular risk factors. Secondary analyses considered myocarditis and pericarditis as separate outcomes. Additional analyses compared associations of CHIP with myocarditis and pericarditis with those with other cardiovascular diseases, and tested the bidirectional associations between CHIP and noncardiac immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. RESULTS: Among 335 426 participants (mean age, 56.1 years; 185 429 female [55.3%] and 149 997 male [44.7%]), 11 057 had any CHIP (3.3%), 7271 had large CHIP (2.2%), and 382 developed myocarditis or pericarditis (0.11%). Any and large CHIP were associated with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.75 (95% CI, 1.14-2.68; P = .01) and 2.07 (95% CI, 1.28-3.33; P = .003), respectively, for the primary composite outcome of incident myocarditis and pericarditis. Increased risks were observed for DNMT3A and TET2 CHIP, with hazard ratios of 2.22 (95% CI, 1.17-4.21; P = .01) for DNMT3A with pericarditis and 3.65 (95% CI, 1.16-11.49; P = .03) for TET2 with myocarditis. CHIP associated with myocarditis and pericarditis more strongly than with other cardiovascular diseases (eg, coronary artery disease and heart failure). Any CHIP was also associated with 1.27-fold risk (95% CI, 1.16-1.39; P < .001) of developing noncardiac immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, without evidence for reverse causation. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, CHIP was a strong risk factor for myocarditis and pericarditis among middle-aged adults. Targeting CHIP and its downstream pathways may represent a strategy for preventing or treating pericarditis and myocarditis.

Adult↗