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Biomedical subjects

N M Ferguson

Publications and source records attributed to N M Ferguson.

51 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
PubMed1997

The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics.

Mathematical model that describe the key processes determining the pattern of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in British cattle are derived that allow for infection from feed as well as maternal and direct horizontal transmission. Heterogeneous susceptibility classes are also incorporated into the analysis. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate parameters and to obtain confidence intervals from available experimental and epidemiological data. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis of all model parameters and distributional assumptions is presented. Additional validation is provided by fitting the model to independent data collected in Northern Ireland. Model estimates and predictions based on BSE case data for Great Britain and Northern Ireland, together with their implications, are reviewed, and future research priorities discussed.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1996

Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle.

A comprehensive analysis of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in cattle in Great Britain assesses past, present and future patterns in the incidence of infection and disease, and allows a critical appraisal of different culling policies for eradication of the disease.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1996

Mass vaccination to control chickenpox: the influence of zoster.

The impact of transmission events from patients with shingles (zoster) on the epidemiology of varicella is examined before and after the introduction of mass immunization by using a stochastic mathematical model of transmission dynamics. Reactivation of the virus is shown to damp stochastic fluctuations and move the dynamics toward simple annual oscillations. The force of infection due to zoster cases is estimated by comparison of simulated and observed incidence time series. The presence of infectious zoster cases reduces the tendency for mass immunization to increase varicella incidence at older ages when disease severity is typically greater.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1996

Dynamical complexity in age-structured models of the transmission of the measles virus: epidemiological implications at high levels of vaccine uptake.

This article explores the effect of increasingly finely stratified age structure on the dynamical properties of deterministic metapopulation models of the transmission of the measles virus. The dynamical simplicity of earlier age-structured models is shown to break down once the age-specific force of infection is no longer assumed to be constant across all child age classes below 5 years of age. While the biennial epidemics characteristic of earlier models are still observed, additional higher period stable cycles arise and coexist with the biennial cycle. The existence of multiple stable limit cycles necessarily implies model sensitivity on initial conditions, and for certain parameter values, chaotic dynamics are observed. Using a novel parameterization of the magnitude of seasonal forcing we are also able to make more biologically relevant comparisons between the dynamics of age- and non-age-structured models than have hitherto been possible. The epidemiological significance of these results is discussed, and we demonstrate that perturbations of the kind produced by intensive vaccination programs can shift transmission dynamics between biennial and triennial cycles. The possible implications of this work for studies of intermittency and infection persistence are also considered.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Characterization of a naturally occurring infection of a Mycoplasma gallisepticum house finch-like strain in turkey breeders.

An outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) in commercial turkeys involving very mild clinical signs was difficult to confirm by routine methods. In the first part of this study (trial A), we conducted a bioassay to increase the likelihood of detecting MG. Susceptible turkeys were inoculated with sinus exudates from four different affected commercial turkey flocks. Turkeys were evaluated for clinical signs, as well as by serology and culture of tracheal swabs, at 21 and 42 days postchallenge. An MG isolate from one of the sinus exudates used for inoculation, designated K5054, was very similar to isolates from house finches when characterized by random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis as well as DNA sequence analysis of portions of the phase-variable putative adhesin protein (pvpA) gene, a lipoprotein gene, and the cytadhesin gapA/mgc1 gene. The turkeys inoculated with the K5054 sinus exudate seroconverted in the absence of severe clinical signs. There was a single reisolation of K5054 from these turkeys 42 days postchallenge. Susceptible contact turkeys were commingled with the K5054-inoculated turkeys at 49 days postchallenge. We found no evidence of transmission of MG to the contacts by culture or serology at 7, 21, or 35 days after commingling. In the second part of this study (trial B), we challenged the contacts and K5054 sinus exudate-inoculated turkeys from trial A with virulent R strain 88 days after the K5054 sinus exudate inoculation. On necropsy 10 days postchallenge, the evaluation of gross and microscopic lesions, serology, and culture showed that the turkeys previously inoculated with K5054 sinus exudate were protected against disease and reinfection.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Safety and efficacy of the avirulent Mycoplasma gallisepticum strain K5054 as a live vaccine in poultry.

A Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) isolate from an atypically mild outbreak in turkey breeders was found to be similar to house finch isolates by DNA analyses. A preliminary study in turkeys showed that this isolate (K5054) caused very mild lesions and protected turkeys against subsequent challenge with a virulent MG strain. In this study, K5054 was further evaluated as a potential vaccine strain in commercial layer-type chickens and turkeys. The safety of K5054 was evaluated by aerosol challenge followed by evaluation of gross and histopathologic lesions as well as serologic reactions and isolation of MG from the trachea and air sacs. Infection of chickens (trial 1) and turkeys (trial 2) with K5054 resulted in little evidence of MG lesions. There was weak seroconversion, and K5054 was consistently reisolated from the tracheas of chickens and turkeys. The efficacy of K5054 as a vaccine was evaluated by aerosol challenge of vaccinated chickens (trial 3) and turkeys (trial 4) with virulent R strain. There was evidence of protection from lesions associated with MG.

Animals↗