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Biomedical subjects

N J Wald

Publications and source records attributed to N J Wald.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
PubMed1994

An ecological study of serum cholesterol and ischaemic heart disease between 1950 and 1990.

OBJECTIVE: (i) To carry out a quantitative analysis of the average serum cholesterol levels in different countries in relationship to the ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in these countries. (ii) To examine changes in serum cholesterol levels over time in different countries. DESIGN: Analysis of published surveys measuring average serum cholesterol in specified communities in different countries. SETTING: The original cholesterol surveys were mainly in occupational and residential settings. RESULTS: Survey data allowed estimation of average serum cholesterol levels during specified time periods for 17 countries; estimates in men aged 40-59 years varied from 3.8 mmol/l (rural China) to 7.0 mmol/l (Finland). Variation in serum cholesterol accounted for 80% of the tenfold range in risk of IHD across countries. A difference in total (or LDL) cholesterol of 0.6 mmol/l between countries was associated with an average difference in IHD mortality of 37% at age 55-64 years. Repeat surveys showed that serum cholesterol reductions of the order of 0.6 mmol/l have occurred in some communities over about 5-10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in serum cholesterol explains four-fifths of the geographical variation in IHD mortality. Reductions in cholesterol of about 0.6 mmol/l (10%) have been achieved in some Western communities or countries over periods of a few years, a change that is associated with a decrease in IHD mortality of over one-third.

Adult↗
PubMed1993

Serum alpha-fetoprotein and neural tube defects in the first trimester of pregnancy. MRC Vitamin Study Research Group.

As part of the Medical Research Council randomized trial of vitamin supplementation in the prevention of neural tube defects (NTDs), maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was available for 19 NTD pregnancies. Each of these was matched with four unaffected controls, by maternal age, participating centre, and duration of sample storage. The samples came from women whose gestational age ranged from 6 to 14 completed weeks. The median AFP level in the affected pregnancies was 1.2 multiples of the median value in unaffected pregnancies of the same gestational age (95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 0.83-1.59). This confirmed the view that serum AFP measurement is of no practical value in the detection of NTDs in the first trimester of pregnancy. The study also showed that folic acid supplementation, used as a method of preventing NTDs, had no effect on the concentrations of maternal serum AFP up to 14 weeks of pregnancy.

Female↗
PubMed1993

Biparietal diameter and crown-rump length in fetuses with Down's syndrome: implications for antenatal serum screening for Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: 1. To compare the ultrasound biparietal diameter and crown-rump length of fetuses with and without Down's syndrome in the first half of pregnancy; 2. To investigate the effect of estimation of gestational age using either measure on the detection rate of serum screening for Down's syndrome. DESIGN: Matched case-control study. Cases were singleton Down's syndrome pregnancies with a biparietal diameter or a crown-rump length recorded. Five controls were matched to each case on: medical centre; the date of the ultrasound scan examination (within two years); gestational age measured as the number of days since the first day of the last menstrual period; and the ultrasound measure used (ie the biparietal diameter (the measure of choice), or the crown-rump length otherwise). If a woman had a serum screening test for Down's syndrome, the biparietal diameter or crown-rump length measurement had to be taken prior to the screening test so that the result of the test could not influence whether a scan was performed. SETTING: Ten antenatal screening centres in seven countries in Europe and North America. SUBJECTS: Two hundred and one women with singleton Down's syndrome pregnancies and 1005 women with unaffected singleton pregnancies. RESULTS: The median biparietal diameter of fetuses with Down's syndrome was identical to that among the controls (median difference 0.0 mm, 95% confidence intervals (CI) -0.5 to 0.5 mm). The estimates of gestational age based on biparietal diameter yielded a median gestational age less than that based on the women's last menstrual period: three days less for cases and two days less for controls; small but statistically significant differences probably reflected a minor systematic difference in the conversion of a biparietal diameter to a gestational age estimate. The median crown-rump length of fetuses with Down's syndrome was also identical to that among controls (median difference 0.0 mm, 95% CI-1.5 to 2.0 mm). There was no significant difference between the median gestational age estimate based on crown-rump length and that based on the women's last menstrual period. CONCLUSION: In antenatal screening for Down's syndrome the routine use of an ultrasound biparietal diameter or crown-rump length measurement to estimate gestational age will not adversely affect the detection rate. To avoid differences in gestational age estimates using the last menstrual period and the biparietal diameter influencing screening performance, separate medians should be derived for each serum marker using the two methods of estimating gestational age. The appropriate set of medians can then be used to calculate the multiple of the median value for each woman screened depending on the method used to estimate her gestational age.

Case-Control Studies↗
PubMed1993

Cigarette smoking and levels of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated estriol, and hCG: impact on Down syndrome screening.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between maternal cigarette smoking and serum levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated estriol (uE3), and hCG and to determine whether it is appropriate to take smoking status into account when screening for fetal Down syndrome. METHODS: Smoking information was obtained from 23,668 pregnant women at the time of routine screening for fetal Down syndrome. Serum levels of AFP, uE3, and hCG were stratified by smoking status and compared. Individual risks for fetal Down syndrome were analyzed both before and after adjusting the hCG levels for the effect of smoking. The prevalence of Down syndrome in the study population was calculated for both smokers and non-smokers. RESULTS: The average AFP, uE3, and hCG levels in women who smoked cigarettes were 3% greater (95% confidence interval [CI] 2-4%), 3% less (95% CI 2-4%), and 23% less (95% CI 22-24%), respectively, compared with levels in non-smokers. At comparable maternal ages, women who smoked cigarettes were identified as being at high risk for fetal Down syndrome 40% less often than non-smokers (4.0 versus 7.1% at a risk level of 1:250). Adjusting hCG levels for smoking status reduced the overall false-positive rate from 6.4 to 6.1% (using a term risk cutoff level of 1:250). The predicted effect on detection was small (a 0.7% increase). The prevalence of Down syndrome was lower among smokers, but the difference was not statistically significant (odds ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.15-1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting the serum markers used for Down syndrome screening for the effect of maternal smoking has a small effect on overall screening performance. Given the uncertainty over whether there is a lower birth prevalence among women who smoke cigarettes, such adjustment is not currently justified.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

Antenatal maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome: results of a demonstration project.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the implementation of antenatal screening for Down's syndrome in practice, using individual risk estimates based on maternal age and the three serum markers: alpha fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol, and human chorionic gonadotrophin. DESIGN: Demonstration project of Down's syndrome screening; women with a risk estimate at term of 1 in 250 or greater were classified as "screen positive" and offered diagnostic amniocentesis. SETTING: Hospital and community antenatal clinics in four health districts in London. SUBJECTS: 12,603 women of all ages with singleton pregnancies seen between February 1989 and the end of May 1991, with follow up of the outcome of pregnancy completed to the end of 1991. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Uptake of screening, detection rate for Down's syndrome, false positive rate, odds of being affected given a positive result, and uptake of amniocentesis in women with positive screening results, together with the costs of the screening programme. RESULTS: The uptake of screening was 74%. The detection rate was 48% (12/25), and the false positive rate was 4.1%, consistent with results expected from previous work based on observational studies. There was a loss of detection due to the selective use of ultrasound scans among women with positive screening results. One affected pregnancy occurred among 205 reclassified as negative; this illustrated the danger of false negatives occurring in this group and lends weight to the view that if an ultrasound estimate of gestational age is used it should be carried out routinely on all women rather than selectively among those with positive results. The estimated cost of avoiding the birth of a baby with Down's syndrome was about 38,000 pounds, substantially less than the lifetime costs of care. CONCLUSION: Antenatal maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome is effective in practice and can be readily integrated into routine antenatal care. It is cost effective and performs better than selection for amniocentesis on the basis of maternal age alone.

Amniocentesis↗
PubMed1992

Serum alpha-tocopherol concentration in relation to subsequent colorectal cancer: pooled data from five cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin E is an antioxidant that inhibits mutagenesis and cell transformation. Previous findings in five prospective epidemiologic studies suggested that the level of serum alpha-tocopherol, the predominant form of vitamin E in the blood, was lower in subjects who subsequently developed colorectal cancer than in control subjects. However, the difference was neither obvious nor statistically significant in any one of these five studies. PURPOSE: To evaluate in greater detail the association between serum alpha-tocopherol concentration and risk of colorectal cancer, we pooled and analyzed the original data from the five studies. Our analyses were designed to (a) test the hypothesis with greater statistical power, (b) examine the association after adjustment for serum cholesterol levels, and (c) evaluate the association after uniform exclusion of cases diagnosed shortly after blood specimens were drawn. METHODS: Data for individual subjects were analyzed. To make the design of the component investigations uniformly nested case-control studies with individual matching, we matched controls to cases in two of the cohorts. Subjects were categorized according to study-specific quartile of serum alpha-tocopherol level within the study. The pooled analysis included 289 cases of colorectal cancer and 1267 matched controls. RESULTS: For cancers of the colon and rectum combined, the matched odds ratio (OR) for the highest quartile of serum alpha-tocopherol concentration compared with the lowest was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.4-1.0). Adjustment for serum cholesterol level attenuated the OR to 0.7 (95% CI = 0.4-1.1). CONCLUSION: The results suggest that serum alpha-tocopherol concentration may be inversely related to risk of colorectal cancer. It is unclear whether an association exists, however, because the association between serum alpha-tocopherol level and decreased risk of colorectal cancer was modest, the CIs were wide, and, overall, the tests for trend in effect were not significant. IMPLICATIONS: Larger observational studies with concurrent dietary data are needed to determine whether vitamin E has a modest but potentially important protective effect against colorectal cancer.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1992

Detection of hydatidiform mole in maternal serum screening programmes for Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how frequently hydatidiform mole will be detected in a maternal serum Down's syndrome screening programme. DESIGN: Affected pregnancies were identified using a national register. Unconjugated oestriol (uE3) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) were measured in stored serum samples and alphafetoprotein (AFP) levels were available from previous neural tube defect screening at 15-20 weeks gestation. SUBJECTS: Ten pregnancies with a complete mole (i.e., hydropic placenta without a fetus), nine with stored serum samples and one with an AFP level only. RESULTS: The median values were 0.08, 0.13 and 1.83 multiples of the normal median for AFP, uE3 and hCG respectively. Six out of nine (67%) tested for all three markers had a high risk of Down's syndrome given maternal age and the marker levels. CONCLUSION: Many molar pregnancies that have not presented clinically before 15 weeks will be detected through Down's syndrome screening.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

Maternal serum unconjugated oestriol and human chorionic gonadotrophin levels in pregnancies with insulin-dependent diabetes: implications for screening for Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate maternal serum unconjugated oestriol (uE3) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels in pregnant women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and to consider the implications of the results for antenatal screening for Down's syndrome. DESIGN: Descriptive study using stored antenatal serum samples. SETTING: Stored serum samples collected from women receiving routine antenatal care in Oxford. SUBJECTS: 126 singleton pregnancies in 92 women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and for each pregnancy, two pregnancies without diabetes matched for gestational age and duration of storage of the serum sample. None of the pregnancies was associated with fetal neural tube defect or Down's syndrome. MAIN STUDY MEASURES: Maternal serum uE3 and hCG levels at 15-22 weeks gestation. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were also measured for comparison. RESULTS: The median uE3 level in the diabetic pregnancies was 0.92 multiples of the median (MoM) for pregnancies without diabetes at the same gestational age (P less than 0.05); and the hCG level was 0.95 MoM (P = 0.48). The median AFP level was also reduced to 0.77 MoM (P less than 0.001). CONCLUSION: The reduction in uE3 and AFP levels in insulin-dependent diabetic pregnancies is sufficiently great to be taken into account in maternal serum screening programmes for Down's syndrome. Dividing the uE3 and AFP levels in such pregnancies by the corresponding median for insulin-dependent diabetic pregnancies will yield a similar false-positive rate in pregnancies with and without insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

Chorionic Gonadotropin↗
PubMed1992

Maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome: the effect of routine ultrasound scan determination of gestational age and adjustment for maternal weight.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of using a routine ultrasound estimate of gestational age and maternal weight adjustment on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels in antenatal screening for Down's syndrome. DESIGN: Women with a singleton pregnancy without Down's syndrome were screened using the three serum markers and an estimate of gestational age based on 'dates' (time since first day of the last menstrual period) and one based on an ultrasound scan examination was recorded together with maternal weight. SETTING: Women attending the Homerton Hospital, Hackney, for their antenatal care between February 1989 and January 1990. SUBJECTS: 2113 women with a singleton pregnancy without Down's syndrome. RESULTS: The use of ultrasound to estimate gestational age (usually based on the biparietal diameter of the fetal skull) led to a significant reduction in the variance of each marker at a given week of pregnancy. The level of each marker was negatively associated with maternal weight, so that adjustment for weight also led to a reduction in variance. These data on gestational age and maternal weight, taken together with published data on pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome, indicate that the routine use of ultrasound to estimate gestational age will increase the detection rate from 58% to 67% while maintaining the false-positive rate at 5%, or reduce the false-positive rate from 5.7% to 3.1% while maintaining the detection rate at 60%. Routine maternal weight adjustment for the serum marker levels was much less useful, increasing the detection rate by about 0.5% for a given false-positive rate, or reducing the false-positive rate about 0.1% for a given detection rate. CONCLUSION: An ultrasound gestational age estimate available at the time of Down's syndrome screening confers a substantial advantage to screening performance with a further small benefit resulting from maternal weight adjustment, which is worth adopting if it can be done without difficulty or extra cost.

Biomarkers↗
PubMed1992

Prenatal biochemical screening for Down's syndrome and neural tube defects.

Antenatal serum screening for Down's syndrome is now becoming established in many centers throughout the world. The screening method is based on the measurement of alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated estriol, and human chorionic gonadotropin between 15 and 22 weeks of pregnancy. These measurements, used in conjunction with a woman's age, provide risk estimates of having a pregnancy with Down's syndrome for every woman screened. By identifying the 5% of women with highest risk and offering them an amniocentesis, about 60% of Down's syndrome pregnancies can be identified. If an ultrasound scan examination is used routinely to estimate gestational age, the detection rate can be increased by 5% to 10%. Recent information on the distribution of the three serum markers in twin pregnancies and pregnancies with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus now means that screening can be carried out in such pregnancies. Various other serum markers of Down's syndrome have been reported, but at present they do not have a place in routine antenatal screening for Down's syndrome. The role of amniotic fluid acetylcholinesterase measurement, alone and in combination with amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein measurement, in the antenatal diagnosis of open neural tube defects has recently been clarified. The best policy is to perform an amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein measurement as the primary test and an acetylcholinesterase determination for those women who have an amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein measurement of two times the normal median or greater. The acetylcholinesterase can be measured either by the standard method (gel electrophoresis) or by a new quantitative monoclonal antibody method.

Acetylcholinesterase↗
PubMed1992

Effect of sample storage on the assay of lipoprotein(a) by commercially available radial immunodiffusion and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits.

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] was measured by both a radial immunodiffusion (RID) kit from Immuno AG (Zurich, Switzerland) and a Tint Elize enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit from CytRx Biopool Ltd. (Umeå, Sweden) in serum samples that had been stored at -20 and -70 degrees C for six months. Storage temperature had no significant effect on the Lp(a) concentrations obtained by either method. After six months, mean Lp(a) degradation was 46% (95% confidence interval, 34-58%) with the RID kit; the ELISA data could not be compared between time points. In fresh sera, Lp(a) concentrations obtained by RID were 41% higher than by ELISA (because of differences in assay calibration materials), but in paired measurements of a set of 215 samples stored at -40 degrees C for an average of 10 years, Lp(a) concentrations were 62% lower by RID. This suggests that RID is more sensitive to the effects of long-term storage than is ELISA.

Drug Stability↗
PubMed1991

By how much does dietary salt reduction lower blood pressure? I--Analysis of observational data among populations.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the quantitative relation between blood pressure and sodium intake. DESIGN: Data were analysed from published reports of blood pressure and sodium intake for 24 different communities (47 000 people) throughout the world. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Difference in blood pressure for a 100 mmol/24 h difference in sodium intake. Allowance was made for differences in blood pressure between economically developed and undeveloped communities to minimise overestimation of the association through confounding with other determinants of blood pressure. RESULTS: Blood pressure was higher on average in the developed communities, but the association with sodium intake was similar in both types of community. A difference in sodium intake of 100 mmol/24 h was associated with an average difference in systolic blood pressure that ranged from 5 mm Hg at age 15-19 years to 10 mm Hg at age 60-69. The differences in diastolic blood pressure were about half as great. The standard deviation of blood pressure increased with sodium intake implying that the association of blood pressure with sodium intake in individuals was related to the initial blood pressure--the higher the blood pressure the greater the expected reduction in blood pressure for the same reduction in sodium intake. For example, at age 60-69 the estimated systolic blood pressure reduction in response to a 100 mmol/24 h reduction in sodium intake was on average 10 mm Hg but varied from 6 mm Hg for those on the fifth blood pressure centile to 15 mm Hg for those on the 95th centile. CONCLUSIONS: The association of blood pressure with sodium intake is substantially larger than is generally appreciated and increases with age and initial blood pressure.

Adolescent↗