Blood Metabolomic Signatures of 1-Hour Glucose Predict Cardiometabolic Risk.
BACKGROUND: Elevated 1-hour glucose levels during an oral glucose tolerance test strongly predict type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether the fasting blood metabolome predicting 1-hour glucose could be a target for improving β-cell function, long-term glycemic trajectories, and reducing the risks of T2D and coronary heart disease. We also investigated whether plasma microRNAs derived from key metabolic organs regulate changes in a metabolomic risk score (MRS) for predicting 1-hour glucose. METHODS: Untargeted blood metabolomics and a frequently sampled 75-g oral glucose tolerance test were performed in participants from the OmniCarb trial (n=162). In an independent weight-loss dietary intervention trial (POUNDS Lost [Preventing Overweight Using Novel Dietary Strategies]), temporal changes in MRS and plasma microRNAs measured by genome-wide sequencing were analyzed. In addition, associations of MRS at baseline and its 10-year changes with long-term risk of incident T2D and coronary heart disease were prospectively investigated in the NHS (Nurses' Health Study). RESULTS: We created a fasting blood MRS for predicting 1-hour glucose (Pearson r=0.8) and found significant associations with half-day (diurnal) postprandial glucose excursions and insulin secretion after 5-week controlled feeding interventions varying in carbohydrate amount and glycemic index. In the POUNDS Lost trial, diet-induced changes in MRSs were related to 2-year trajectories of glucose metabolism; circulating microRNAs regulating cardiometabolic abnormalities were pivotal factors influencing these changes. In the NHS, women in the top 20% of MRS had a multivariate-adjusted relative risk of 3.80 (95% CI, 2.22-6.51) for T2D and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.04-2.12) for coronary heart disease compared with those in the lowest 20%. In addition, 10-year increases in plasma metabolites related to 1-hour glucose were linearly associated with a higher risk of T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that fasting blood metabolomic signatures predicting elevated 1-hour glucose reflect disease pathophysiology and could be targets for preventing T2D and coronary heart disease.