Biomedical subjects

Mercedes Pascual

Publications and source records attributed to Mercedes Pascual.

23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

PubMed2003

Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initial conditions.

Environmental noise is known to sustain cycles by perturbing a deterministic approach to equilibrium that is itself oscillatory. Quasicycles produced in this way display a regular period but varied amplitude. They were proposed by Nisbet and Gurney (Nature 263 (1976) 319) as one possible explanation for population fluctuations in nature. Here, we revisit quasicyclic dynamics from the perspective of nonlinear time series analysis. Time series are generated with a predator-prey model whose prey's growth rate is driven by environmental noise. A method for the analysis of short and noisy data provides evidence for sensitivity to initial conditions, with a global Lyapunov exponent often close to zero characteristic of populations 'at the edge of chaos'. Results with methods restricted to long time series are consistent with a finite-dimensional attractor on which dynamics are sensitive to initial conditions. These results are compared with those previously obtained for quasicycles in an individual-based model with heterogeneous spatial distributions. Patterns of sensitivity to initial conditions are shown to differentiate phase-forgetting from phase-remembering quasicycles involving a periodic driver. The previously reported mode at zero of Lyapunov exponents in field and laboratory populations may reflect, in part, quasicyclic dynamics.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2002

ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?

We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980-2001), while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893-1920 and 1920-1940, respectively). Concomitant with these changes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO, this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings.

Cholera↗

PubMed2002

Cluster size distributions: signatures of self-organization in spatial ecologies.

Three different lattice-based models for antagonistic ecological interactions, both nonlinear and stochastic, exhibit similar power-law scalings in the geometry of clusters. Specifically, cluster size distributions and perimeter-area curves follow power-law scalings. In the coexistence regime, these patterns are robust: their exponents, and therefore the associated Korcak exponent characterizing patchiness, depend only weakly on the parameters of the systems. These distributions, in particular the values of their exponents, are close to those reported in the literature for systems associated with self-organized criticality (SOC) such as forest-fire models; however, the typical assumptions of SOC need not apply. Our results demonstrate that power-law scalings in cluster size distributions are not restricted to systems for antagonistic interactions in which a clear separation of time-scales holds. The patterns are characteristic of processes of growth and inhibition in space, such as those in predator-prey and disturbance-recovery dynamics. Inversions of these patterns, that is, scalings with a positive slope as described for plankton distributions, would therefore require spatial forcing by environmental variability.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Presurgical assessment of the tumor burden of familial medullary thyroid carcinoma by calcitonin testing.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of familial medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is currently done by genetic analysis. These techniques have replaced calcitonin stimulation testing, which was previously used for this purpose. Some studies suggest a relationship between MTC spread and calcitonin levels. The aim of this study was to assess whether the tumor burden of MTC associated with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2A (MEN 2A) syndrome can be estimated from the plasma calcitonin values before surgery. STUDY DESIGN: We retrospectively studied the relationship of basal and peak calcitonin values before thyroidectomy with histopathologic findings in 53 patients with MEN 2A syndrome from 14 families. The MTC was classified according to TNM staging. Analysis of variance was used for statistical analysis complemented with equality contrasts for pairs of means by the least significant difference method with a Student's t-test and with the Bonferroni's adjustment. RESULTS: A positive association was found between tumor stage and basal and peak calcitonin levels. There were significant differences between the following: mean basal concentrations of patients with C cell hyperplasia (CCH) (34.3 pg/mL) and TNM stage II (1,097.4 pg/mL), p < 0.01; CCH and TNM stage III (2,940.8 pg/mL), p < 0.001; TNM stage I (165.3 pg/mL) and stage II (1,097.4 pg/mL), p < 0.01, and between TNM stages I and III, p < 0.001. Poststimulation mean concentrations were different between CCH (48.7 pg/mL) and TNM I (514.2 pg/mL), p < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative calcitonin testing may be useful for assessing tumor spread and should be considered when deciding the extent of surgery for MEN 2A MTC.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence.

Cholera dynamics in endemic regions display regular seasonal cycles and pronounced interannual variability. We review here the current quantitative evidence for the influence of climate on cholera dynamics with reference to the early literature on the subject. We also briefly review the incipient status of mathematical models for cholera and argue that these models are important for understanding climatic influences in the context of the population dynamics of the disease. A better understanding of disease risk related to the environment should further underscore the need for changing the socioeconomic conditions conducive to cholera.

Cholera↗