Biomedical subjects

Marc A Suchard

Publications and source records attributed to Marc A Suchard.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2026

Unraveling the epidemiological and dispersal dynamics of the 2024-2025 chikungunya virus epidemic on Réunion Island.

Réunion Island experienced a massive chikungunya virus epidemic in 2024-2025, with >54,000 confirmed cases. This is the second major chikungunya epidemic on the island, following the first one that peaked 20 years ago. It has been asserted that this new outbreak finds its origin in a single introduction event into the island, offering an opportunity to exploit viral genomic data to understand the epidemiological and dispersal dynamics of the introduced transmission chain. We sequenced >3,000 viral genomes collected during the epidemic. Harnessing this genomic dataset, we used several phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to unravel the paths taken by the transmission chain and the external factors that might have impacted its dispersal and epidemiological dynamics on the island. Our analyses highlight a dispersal pattern in line with a gravity-model dynamic with viral transition events being more frequent from and toward more populated areas. Our analyses reveal that the transmission chain was overall spatially intermixed, with frequent exchanges among residential areas. In addition, we show that the temporal dynamic and intensity of the epidemic were associated with climatic variables, namely temperature and precipitation. Our results also show that in theory, the population immunity-resulting from this epidemic and the previous one (2005-2006)-could be sufficient to explain on its own the decrease in the transmission rate that led to the end of the epidemic. While a short-term resurgence cannot be excluded, the risk of a large-scale circulation of the virus in the human population appears therefore relatively limited in the upcoming seasons.

Reunion↗

PubMed2026

TreeFlow: Probabilistic Modelling and Automatic Differentiation for Phylogenetics.

Probabilistic modelling frameworks are powerful tools for statistical modelling and inference. They are not immediately generalizable to phylogenetic problems due to the particular computational properties of the phylogenetic tree object. TreeFlow is a software library for probabilistic modelling and automatic differentiation with phylogenetic trees. It embeds phylogenetic trees in the TensorFlow Probability framework, and implements inference algorithms for phylogenetic models given a fixed tree topology. We demonstrate how TreeFlow can be used to quickly implement and assess new models. We also show that it provides reasonable performance for gradient-based inference algorithms compared to specialized computational libraries for phylogenetics.

Bayesian inference↗

PubMed2026

Evolutionary history of Jamestown Canyon virus reveals complex multi-vector ecology.

Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) is a historically understudied mosquito-borne virus of increasing concern in North America. We generated 658 whole-genome JCV sequences from northeast United States, including 84% (500/597) of all JCV-positive mosquitoes detected in Connecticut from 1997 to 2022. Then, we applied phylodynamic methods to demonstrate how mosquito phenology structures the maintenance and evolution of JCV. Our phylogenetic analyses estimate that JCV was introduced in the Northeast by at least the early 1700s, and the primary introductions of lineages A and B into Connecticut occurred during the mid-1800s to mid-1900s. Further, we estimate that JCV evolves at a rate of ∼3 × 10-5 substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), making it one of the slowest-evolving known RNA viruses, because the virus spends ∼10 months per year in evolutionary stasis while overwintering in mosquito eggs. To investigate ecological drivers of JCV spread in Connecticut, we paired discrete trait and continuous phylogeographic reconstructions with mosquito surveillance data. We estimate that JCV has a low diffusion rate of ∼30-60 km2/year, which is more similar to slow-moving tick-borne viruses than to other mosquito-borne viruses. We found that univoltine Aedes mosquitoes were likely to maintain the virus across years through overwintering in eggs, accounting for its slow evolution and dispersal, while multivoltine mosquitoes contributed to periodic bursts of spatial diffusion and amplification within seasons. We demonstrate the utility of dense sequencing and phylodynamics to disentangle complex transmission cycles, offering a framework for rapidly advancing our evolutionary and ecological knowledge of understudied viruses.

Animals↗

PubMed2025

Parallel algorithms for phylogenetic inference under a structured coalescent approximation.

While advances in molecular epidemiology and computational modeling have enhanced our capacity to track pathogen evolution, the accurate reconstruction of spatiotemporal transmission dynamics remains essential for developing epidemic preparedness frameworks and implementing outbreak response measures. Structured coalescent models offer a phylogeographic framework by restricting lineage coalescence events to geographically proximate host populations. Although the Bayesian structured coalescent approximation (BASTA) provides a tractable approach, contemporary phylogeographic analyses involving dozens of geographic localities and hundreds to thousands of viral genomes substantially exceed the computational capacity of existing implementations. The BASTA likelihood scales cubically with deme count and quadratically with sequence count due to matrix exponentiation and pairwise coalescent probability calculations. Here, we introduce a comprehensive algorithmic restructuring of the structured coalescent likelihood that eliminates redundancies, optimizes memory access, and exposes parallelization opportunities. Our approach reorganizes computations along three dimensions: (i) independent calculation of deme-transition probability matrices across time intervals; (ii) simultaneous evaluation of partial likelihood vectors within temporal slices; and (iii) concurrent aggregation of coalescent probabilities. Algorithmic restructuring cuts average coalescent likelihood computation by 7-8 fold, and parallelization further boosts performance to 10-26 fold, enabling joint phylogeographic analyses of dengue virus across 10 South American countries and H5N1 avian influenza across 20 Eurasian regions to finish in a fraction of prior time. This computational efficiency also enables comparison between backward-in-time structured coalescent approximations and forward-in-time phylogeographic methods, revealing that the former provides appropriately conservative posterior estimates, particularly at intermediate phylogenetic depths. We integrate our implementation into the popular BEAST X and BEAGLE software packages, with an accompanying interface in BEAUti X to easily set up the analyses, providing researchers with an accessible and scalable tool for real-time phylogeographic surveillance of rapidly evolving pathogens.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2006

Phylogenetic mapping of recombination hotspots in human immunodeficiency virus via spatially smoothed change-point processes.

We present a Bayesian framework for inferring spatial preferences of recombination from multiple putative recombinant nucleotide sequences. Phylogenetic recombination detection has been an active area of research for the last 15 years. However, only recently attempts to summarize information from several instances of recombination have been made. We propose a hierarchical model that allows for simultaneous inference of recombination breakpoint locations and spatial variation in recombination frequency. The dual multiple change-point model for phylogenetic recombination detection resides at the lowest level of our hierarchy under the umbrella of a common prior on breakpoint locations. The hierarchical prior allows for information about spatial preferences of recombination to be shared among individual data sets. To overcome the sparseness of breakpoint data, dictated by the modest number of available recombinant sequences, we a priori impose a biologically relevant correlation structure on recombination location log odds via a Gaussian Markov random field hyperprior. To examine the capabilities of our model to recover spatial variation in recombination frequency, we simulate recombination from a predefined distribution of breakpoint locations. We then proceed with the analysis of 42 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) intersubtype gag recombinants and identify a putative recombination hotspot.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

cBrother: relaxing parental tree assumptions for Bayesian recombination detection.

UNLABELLED: Bayesian multiple change-point models accurately detect recombination in molecular sequence data. Previous Java-based implementations assume a fixed topology for the representative parental data. cBrother is a novel C language implementation that capitalizes on reduced computational time to relax the fixed tree assumption. We show that cBrother is 19 times faster than its predecessor and the fixed tree assumption can influence estimates of recombination in a medically-relevant dataset. AVAILABILITY: cBrother can be freely downloaded from http://www.biomath.org/dormanks/ and can be compiled on Linux, Macintosh and Windows operating systems. Online documentation and a tutorial are also available at the site.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2006

Time squared: repeated measures on phylogenies.

Studies of gene expression profiles in response to external perturbation generate repeated measures data that generally follow nonlinear curves. To explore the evolution of such profiles across a gene family, we introduce phylogenetic repeated measures (PR) models. These models draw strength from 2 forms of correlation in the data. Through gene duplication, the family's evolutionary relatedness induces the first form. The second is the correlation across time points within taxonic units, individual genes in this example. We borrow a Brownian diffusion process along a given phylogenetic tree to account for the relatedness and co-opt a repeated measures framework to model the latter. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that repeated measures models outperform the previously available approaches that consider the longitudinal observations or their differences as independent and identically distributed by using deviance information criteria as Bayesian model selection tools; PR models that borrow phylogenetic information also perform better than nonphylogenetic repeated measures models when appropriate. We then analyze the evolution of gene expression in the yeast kinase family using splines to estimate nonlinear behavior across 3 perturbation experiments. Again, the PR models outperform previous approaches and afford the prediction of ancestral expression profiles. To demonstrate PR model applicability more generally, we conclude with a short examination of variation in brain development across 4 primate species.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2006

Modeling of the temporal patterns of fluoxetine prescriptions and suicide rates in the United States.

BACKGROUND: To study the potential association of antidepressant use and suicide at a population level, we analyzed the associations between suicide rates and dispensing of the prototypic SSRI antidepressant fluoxetine in the United States during the period 1960-2002. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Sources of data included Centers of Disease Control and US Census Bureau age-adjusted suicide rates since 1960 and numbers of fluoxetine sales in the US, since its introduction in 1988. We conducted statistical analysis of age-adjusted population data and prescription numbers. Suicide rates fluctuated between 12.2 and 13.7 per 100,000 for the entire population from the early 1960s until 1988. Since then, suicide rates have gradually declined, with the lowest value of 10.4 per 100,000 in 2000. This steady decline is significantly associated with increased numbers of fluoxetine prescriptions dispensed from 2,469,000 in 1988 to 33,320,000 in 2002 (r(s) = -0.92; p < 0.001). Mathematical modeling of what suicide rates would have been during the 1988-2002 period based on pre-1988 data indicates that since the introduction of fluoxetine in 1988 through 2002 there has been a cumulative decrease in expected suicide mortality of 33,600 individuals (posterior median, 95% Bayesian credible interval 22,400-45,000). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of SSRIs in 1988 has been temporally associated with a substantial reduction in the number of suicides. This effect may have been more apparent in the female population, whom we postulate might have particularly benefited from SSRI treatment. While these types of data cannot lead to conclusions on causality, we suggest here that in the context of untreated depression being the major cause of suicide, antidepressant treatment could have had a contributory role in the reduction of suicide rates in the period 1988-2002.

Antidepressive Agents, Second-Generation↗

PubMed2006

BAli-Phy: simultaneous Bayesian inference of alignment and phylogeny.

SUMMARY: BAli-Phy is a Bayesian posterior sampler that employs Markov chain Monte Carlo to explore the joint space of alignment and phylogeny given molecular sequence data. Simultaneous estimation eliminates bias toward inaccurate alignment guide-trees, employs more sophisticated substitution models during alignment and automatically utilizes information in shared insertion/deletions to help infer phylogenies. AVAILABILITY: Software is available for download at http://www.biomath.ucla.edu/msuchard/bali-phy.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2006

Continued evolution in gp41 after interruption of enfuvirtide in subjects with advanced HIV type 1 disease.

Careful examination of viral dynamics during antiretroviral treatment can provide important insights into HIV pathogenesis. We examined viral evolution during and after enfuvirtide (T-20) treatment with an objective of defining the characteristics of viral evolution during advanced HIV immunodeficiency. Specifically, we examined the viral quasispecies from nine patients who experienced incomplete viral suppression on an enfuvirtide-based regimen, and who subsequently interrupted enfuvirtide while remaining on a stable optimized background regimen (enfuvirtide "partial treatment interruption"). On average, eight clones were sequenced from three time points: pre-enfuvirtide, post-enfuvirtide failure, and post-enfuvirtide interruption. We utilized a Bayesian hierarchical phylogenetic model to assess the evolutionary relatedness of the virus that emerged over time. In most subjects, interruption of enfuvirtide was associated with continued viral evolution as enfuvirtide mutations waned; in no subject did we find clear evidence supporting the reemergence of archived wild-type variants (Bayes factor=30.2, p=0.01). Evidence supporting ongoing viral evolution was particularly strong in subjects whose virus remained diverse or became more diverse during enfuvirtide therapy. In contrast to observations when all drugs are interrupted, loss of resistance during enfuvirtide interruption is most likely due to ongoing viral evolution (and back-mutation), rather than emergence of an archived virus.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2006

Use of electrochemical DNA biosensors for rapid molecular identification of uropathogens in clinical urine specimens.

We describe the first species-specific detection of bacterial pathogens in human clinical fluid samples using a microfabricated electrochemical sensor array. Each of the 16 sensors in the array consisted of three single-layer gold electrodes-working, reference, and auxiliary. Each of the working electrodes contained one representative from a library of capture probes, each specific for a clinically relevant bacterial urinary pathogen. The library included probes for Escherichia coli, Proteus mirabilis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterocococcus spp., and the Klebsiella-Enterobacter group. A bacterial 16S rRNA target derived from single-step bacterial lysis was hybridized both to the biotin-modified capture probe on the sensor surface and to a second, fluorescein-modified detector probe. Detection of the target-probe hybrids was achieved through binding of a horseradish peroxidase (HRP)-conjugated anti-fluorescein antibody to the detector probe. Amperometric measurement of the catalyzed HRP reaction was obtained at a fixed potential of -200 mV between the working and reference electrodes. Species-specific detection of as few as 2,600 uropathogenic bacteria in culture, inoculated urine, and clinical urine samples was achieved within 45 min from the beginning of sample processing. In a feasibility study of this amperometric detection system using blinded clinical urine specimens, the sensor array had 100% sensitivity for direct detection of gram-negative bacteria without nucleic acid purification or amplification. Identification was demonstrated for 98% of gram-negative bacteria for which species-specific probes were available. When combined with a microfluidics-based sample preparation module, the integrated system could serve as a point-of-care device for rapid diagnosis of urinary tract infections.

Biosensing Techniques↗

PubMed2005

Dual multiple change-point model leads to more accurate recombination detection.

MOTIVATION: We introduce a dual multiple change-point (MCP) model for recombination detection among aligned nucleotide sequences. The dual MCP model is an extension of the model introduced previously by Suchard and co-workers. In the original single MCP model, one change-point process is used to model spatial phylogenetic variation. Here, we show that using two change-point processes, one for spatial variation of tree topologies and the other for spatial variation of substitution process parameters, increases recombination detection accuracy. Statistical analysis is done in a Bayesian framework using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to approximate the joint posterior distribution of all model parameters. RESULTS: We use primate mitochondrial DNA data with simulated recombination break-points at specific locations to compare the two models. We also analyze two real HIV sequences to identify recombination break-points using the dual MCP model.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2005

Stochastic models for horizontal gene transfer: taking a random walk through tree space.

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) plays a critical role in evolution across all domains of life with important biological and medical implications. I propose a simple class of stochastic models to examine HGT using multiple orthologous gene alignments. The models function in a hierarchical phylogenetic framework. The top level of the hierarchy is based on a random walk process in "tree space" that allows for the development of a joint probabilistic distribution over multiple gene trees and an unknown, but estimable species tree. I consider two general forms of random walks. The first form is derived from the subtree prune and regraft (SPR) operator that mirrors the observed effects that HGT has on inferred trees. The second form is based on walks over complete graphs and offers numerically tractable solutions for an increasing number of taxa. The bottom level of the hierarchy utilizes standard phylogenetic models to reconstruct gene trees given multiple gene alignments conditional on the random walk process. I develop a well-mixing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to fit the models in a Bayesian framework. I demonstrate the flexibility of these stochastic models to test competing ideas about HGT by examining the complexity hypothesis. Using 144 orthologous gene alignments from six prokaryotes previously collected and analyzed, Bayesian model selection finds support for (1) the SPR model over the alternative form, (2) the 16S rRNA reconstruction as the most likely species tree, and (3) increased HGT of operational genes compared to informational genes.

Archaea↗

PubMed2005

Joint Bayesian estimation of alignment and phylogeny.

We describe a novel model and algorithm for simultaneously estimating multiple molecular sequence alignments and the phylogenetic trees that relate the sequences. Unlike current techniques that base phylogeny estimates on a single estimate of the alignment, we take alignment uncertainty into account by considering all possible alignments. Furthermore, because the alignment and phylogeny are constructed simultaneously, a guide tree is not needed. This sidesteps the problem in which alignments created by progressive alignment are biased toward the guide tree used to generate them. Joint estimation also allows us to model rate variation between sites when estimating the alignment and to use the evidence in shared insertion/deletions (indels) to group sister taxa in the phylogeny. Our indel model makes use of affine gap penalties and considers indels of multiple letters. We make the simplifying assumption that the indel process is identical on all branches. As a result, the probability of a gap is independent of branch length. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to sample from the posterior of the joint model, estimating the most probable alignment and tree and their support simultaneously. We describe a new MCMC transition kernel that improves our algorithm's mixing efficiency, allowing the MCMC chains to converge even when started from arbitrary alignments. Our software implementation can estimate alignment uncertainty and we describe a method for summarizing this uncertainty in a single plot.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2005

Models for estimating bayes factors with applications to phylogeny and tests of monophyly.

Bayes factors comparing two or more competing hypotheses are often estimated by constructing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler to explore the joint space of the hypotheses. To obtain efficient Bayes factor estimates, Carlin and Chib (1995, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B57, 473-484) suggest adjusting the prior odds of the competing hypotheses so that the posterior odds are approximately one, then estimating the Bayes factor by simple division. A byproduct is that one often produces several independent MCMC chains, only one of which is actually used for estimation. We extend this approach to incorporate output from multiple chains by proposing three statistical models. The first assumes independent sampler draws and models the hypothesis indicator function using logistic regression for various choices of the prior odds. The two more complex models relax the independence assumption by allowing for higher-lag dependence within the MCMC output. These models allow us to estimate the uncertainty in our Bayes factor calculation and to fully use several different MCMC chains even when the prior odds of the hypotheses vary from chain to chain. We apply these methods to calculate Bayes factors for tests of monophyly in two phylogenetic examples. The first example explores the relationship of an unknown pathogen to a set of known pathogens. Identification of the unknown's monophyletic relationship may affect antibiotic choice in a clinical setting. The second example focuses on HIV recombination detection. For potential clinical application, these types of analyses must be completed as efficiently as possible.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2004

Alterations in the dynamics of circulating ghrelin, adiponectin, and leptin in human obesity.

Ghrelin plays a key role in the regulation of growth hormone secretion and energy homeostasis. Adiponectin is exclusively secreted by adipose tissue and is abundantly present in the circulation, with important effects on metabolism. We studied five lean and five obese young men [ages: 24.2 +/- 1.0 (lean) and 21.8 +/- 1.6 (obese) years (difference not significant); body mass indexes: 35.0 +/- 1.3 and 23.0 +/- 0.3 kg/m2 (P = 0.01)], sampled blood every 7 min over 24 h, and measured ghrelin, adiponectin, and leptin in 2,070 samples for a total of 6,210 data points. Circulating 24-h ghrelin showed significant ultradian fluctuations and an orderly pattern of release in lean and obese subjects with similar pulsatility characteristics. Plasma adiponectin concentrations were significantly lower in the obese group, with lower pulse height. In contrast to leptin, which is secreted in an orderly manner, the 24-h patterns of adiponectin were not significantly different from random in both the lean and obese groups. We show here that adipocytes can simultaneously secrete certain hormones, such as leptin, in patterns that are orderly, whereas other hormones, such as adiponectin, are secreted in patterns that appear to be random. The cross-approximate entropy statistic revealed pattern synchrony among ghrelin-leptin, ghrelin-adiponectin, and leptin-adiponectin hormone time series in the lean and obese subjects. Plasma ghrelin concentrations showed a nocturnal rise that exceeded the meal-associated increases in lean subjects, and this newly identified nocturnal rise was blunted in the obese. We suggest that the blunting of the nocturnal rise of ghrelin is a biological feature of human obesity.

Adipocytes↗

PubMed2004

Physician knowledge of herbal toxicities and adverse herb-drug interactions.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how knowledgeable physicians are regarding the toxic effects and drug interactions of herbal remedies. METHODS: An anonymous voluntary demographic survey and 16-question, multiple-choice quiz was distributed at educational meetings of emergency medicine and internal medicine physicians. The primary outcome measures were to determine whether significant associations existed between quiz scores and the amount of clinical experience, or between quiz scores and self-assessed familiarity with the topic of herbal toxicities and adverse herb-drug interactions. RESULTS: A total of 142 surveys and quizzes were completed by 59 attending physicians, 57 resident physicians, and 26 medical students. The mean subject score on the quiz was only slightly higher than would have occurred from random guessing. Neither the amount of the subjects' clinical experience, nor their self-assessed familiarity with herbal toxicities and drug interactions correlated significantly with the score on the quiz. CONCLUSION: The physicians and medical students surveyed had little training in herbal toxicities and drug interactions. They generally rated their familiarity with these topics as 'poor', and their scores on the quiz bore out this assessment as correct. Educational efforts might improve physician knowledge of the adverse effects of herbal remedies.

Clinical Competence↗

PubMed2004

Molecular evolution and mosaicism of leptospiral outer membrane proteins involves horizontal DNA transfer.

Leptospires belong to a genus of parasitic bacterial spirochetes that have adapted to a broad range of mammalian hosts. Mechanisms of leptospiral molecular evolution were explored by sequence analysis of four genes shared by 38 strains belonging to the core group of pathogenic Leptospira species: L. interrogans, L. kirschneri, L. noguchii, L. borgpetersenii, L. santarosai, and L. weilii. The 16S rRNA and lipL32 genes were highly conserved, and the lipL41 and ompL1 genes were significantly more variable. Synonymous substitutions are distributed throughout the ompL1 gene, whereas nonsynonymous substitutions are clustered in four variable regions encoding surface loops. While phylogenetic trees for the 16S, lipL32, and lipL41 genes were relatively stable, 8 of 38 (20%) ompL1 sequences had mosaic compositions consistent with horizontal transfer of DNA between related bacterial species. A novel Bayesian multiple change point model was used to identify the most likely sites of recombination and to determine the phylogenetic relatedness of the segments of the mosaic ompL1 genes. Segments of the mosaic ompL1 genes encoding two of the surface-exposed loops were likely acquired by horizontal transfer from a peregrine allele of unknown ancestry. Identification of the most likely sites of recombination with the Bayesian multiple change point model, an approach which has not previously been applied to prokaryotic gene sequence analysis, serves as a model for future studies of recombination in molecular evolution of genes.

Amino Acid Sequence↗