Cohort profile: the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration.
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Adult↗
Biomedical subjects
M Woodward
Publications and source records attributed to M Woodward.
Medication management at home: medication risk factor prevalence and inter-relationships.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Patients can have medication-related risk factors associated with poor health outcomes that become evident through visiting them in their homes. These medication-related risk factors may not be apparent in pharmacy and general practitioner (GP) records. The aim was to determine the prevalence and inter-relationships of medication-related risk factors for poor patient health outcomes identifiable through 'in-home' observations. METHODS: The design was a cross-sectional study of 204 general practice patients living in their own homes and at risk of medication-related poor health outcomes. Medication-related risk factors were identified in the patients' homes by community pharmacists and GPs. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The prevalence of risk factors varied from 8.3% (multiple medication storage locations) to 55.9% (confused by generic and trade names). There were many relationships observed between the medication-related risk factors, with expired medication having the most relationships with other risk factors followed by therapeutic duplication and poor adherence (9, 6 and 6 relationships respectively). CONCLUSION: Visiting patients' homes may identify medication-related risk factors not otherwise apparent through patient visits to the health practitioner when medications may be brought for review (i.e. 'brown bag' reviews).
Adult↗
Unidentified under-nutrition: dietary intake and anthropometric indices in a residential care home population.
BACKGROUND: Research investigating the nutritional status of older people in residential care homes is scant. OBJECTIVE: To determine the anthropometric measures and dietary intakes of older people in this setting as a basis for future intervention studies. METHODS: Dietary intake was assessed using 3-day-weighed food records, nutritional status was evaluated using anthropometric measurements (knee height to predict standing height, and body weight). Catering provision was assessed using a computer-based menu assessment tool (CORA). RESULTS: Mean body mass index (BMI) for the 34 participants was 22.2 kg m(2) (range 14.5-34.4). Six participants (17.6%) had a BMI < or =18.5 kg m(2) with a further seven identified as having a BMI >18.5 but <20 kg m(2). Only two subjects with BMI <18.5 kg m(2) were prescribed oral supplements. In both men and women, recorded mean energy intakes were below current estimated average requirements by 24% and 22% respectively. CONCLUSION: Despite adequate food provision, under-nutrition was prevalent and, in the majority of cases, unidentified and untreated. A larger study is warranted to investigate whether improved nutritional intake is achievable through dietary modification. These data indicate that a sample size of around 60, with 90% power and at the 5% significance level, is required to detect a difference of 1674 kJ between groups of residents in an intervention study following a cluster randomized design.
Aged, 80 and over↗
A cohort study of 20,822 young drivers: the DRIVE study methods and population.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Research on young drivers directly linking risk factors to serious injury and death outcomes is required. The DRIVE Study was established to facilitate this aim. This paper outlines the study methods and describes the population that has been recruited, in order to demonstrate that the necessary heterogeneity in risk factors has been attained. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Drivers aged 17-24 years holding their first-stage provisional driver's licence from New South Wales, Australia, were recruited into a prospective cohort study. The participants were contacted by mail and asked to complete the study questionnaire at an online site or via a mailed questionnaire. Baseline data collection involved a questionnaire with questions to drivers about their training, risk perception, driver behavior, sensation-seeking behavior and mental health. Participants gave consent for prospective data linkage to their data on licensing, crashes and injuries, held in routinely collected databases. RESULTS: 20 822 drivers completed the baseline questionnaire, of whom 45.4% were men, 74.3% resided in capital cities and 25.7% in regional or remote areas. The recruited study population showed a wide variation in the risk factors under examination. For example, almost 40% of drivers reported drinking alcohol at hazardous levels and about 32% of participants seemed to be at a high or very high risk of psychological distress. Participants reported a mean of 67.3 h (median 60 h) of supervised driver training while holding their learner's permit. CONCLUSIONS: The DRIVE Study has a robust study design aimed at minimizing bias in the collection of outcome data. Analyses of baseline data showed substantial heterogeneity of risk factors in the study population. Subsequent prospective linkages comparing relative differences in exposures at baseline with the outcomes of interest have the potential to provide important new information needed to develop targeted interventions aimed at young drivers.
Accidents, Traffic↗
The impact of driver distraction on road safety: results from a representative survey in two Australian states.
OBJECTIVE: To quantify the prevalence and effects of distracting activities while driving. DESIGN: Cross sectional driver survey. SETTING: New South Wales and Western Australia, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 1347 licensed drivers aged between 18 and 65 years. Data were weighted to reflect the corresponding driving population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of distracting activities while driving; perceived risks and adverse outcomes due to distractions. RESULTS: The most common distracting activities during the most recent driving trip were lack of concentration (weighted percentage (standard error, SE) 71.8% (1.4%) of drivers); adjusting in-vehicle equipment (68.7% (1.5%)); outside people, objects or events (57.8% (1.6%)); and talking to passengers (39.8% (1.6%)). On average, a driver engaged in a distracting activity once every six minutes. One in five crashes (21%) during the last three years, involving one in 20 drivers (5.0% (0.7%)), was attributed to driver distraction based on self-report. In the population under study, this equated to 242,188 (SE 34,417) drivers. Younger drivers (18-30 years) were significantly more likely to report distracting activities, to perceive distracting activities as less dangerous, and to have crashed as a result. CONCLUSIONS: Distracting activities while driving are common and can result in driving errors. Driver distraction is an important cause of crashes. Further research is needed to estimate the risk conferred by different distracting activities and the circumstances during which activities pose greatest risk. These results suggest that a strategy to minimize distracting activities while driving, with a focus on young drivers, is indicated.
Accidents, Traffic↗
Shift work and work injury in the New Zealand Blood Donors' Health Study.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between work patterns and the occurrence of work injury. METHODS: A cross sectional analysis of the New Zealand Blood Donors Health Study conducted among the 15 687 (70%) participants who reported being in paid employment. After measurement of height and weight, a self-administered questionnaire collected information concerning occupation and work pattern, lifestyle behaviour, sleep, and the occurrence of an injury at work requiring treatment from a doctor during the past 12 months. RESULTS: Among paid employees providing information on work pattern, 3119 (21.2%) reported doing shift work (rotating with nights, rotating without nights, or permanent nights) and 1282 (8.7%) sustained a work injury. In unadjusted analysis, work injury was most strongly associated with employment in heavy manual occupations (3.6, 2.8 to 4.6) (relative risk, 95% CI), being male (1.9, 1.7 to 2.2), being obese (1.7, 1.5 to 2.0), working rotating shifts with nights (2.1, 1.7 to 2.5), and working more than three nights a week (1.9, 1.6 to 2.3). Snoring, apnoea or choking during sleep, sleep complaints, and excessive daytime sleepiness were also significantly associated with work injury. When mutually adjusting for all significant risk factors, rotating shift work, with or without nights, remained significantly associated with work injury (1.9, 1.5 to 2.4) and (1.8, 1.2 to 2.6), respectively. Working permanent night shifts was no longer significantly associated with work injury in the adjusted model. CONCLUSION: Work injury is highly associated with rotating shift work, even when accounting for increased exposure to high risk occupations, lifestyle factors, and excessive daytime sleepiness.
Accidents, Occupational↗
The fraction of ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to smoking in the WHO Western Pacific and South-East Asian regions.
BACKGROUND: Tobacco will soon be the biggest cause of death worldwide, with the greatest burden being borne by low and middle-income countries where 8/10 smokers now live. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantify the direct burden of smoking for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) by calculating the population attributable fractions (PAF) for fatal ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke (haemorrhagic and ischaemic) for all 38 countries in the World Health Organization Western Pacific and South East Asian regions. DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: Sex-specific prevalence of smoking was obtained from existing data. Estimates of the hazard ratio (HR) for IHD and stroke with smoking as an independent risk factor were obtained from the approximately 600,000 adult subjects in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC). HR estimates and prevalence were then used to calculate sex-specific PAF for IHD and stroke by country. RESULTS: The prevalence of smoking in the 33 countries, for which relevant data could be obtained, ranged from 28-82% in males and from 1-65% in females. The fraction of IHD attributable to smoking ranged from 13-33% in males and from <1-28% in females. The percentage of haemorrhagic stroke attributable to smoking ranged from 4-12% in males and from <1-9% in females. Corresponding figures for ischaemic stroke were 11-27% in males and <1-22% in females. CONCLUSIONS: Up to 30% of some cardiovascular fatalities can be attributed to smoking. This is likely an underestimate of the current burden of smoking on CVD, given that the smoking epidemic has developed further since many of the studies were conducted.
Adult↗
Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis.
CONTEXT: Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data. DATA SOURCES: Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators. STUDY SELECTION: All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design. CONCLUSIONS: In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.
Adult↗
By neglecting deprivation, cardiovascular risk scoring will exacerbate social gradients in disease.
OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the efficiency and equity of cardiovascular risk scores that identify patients at high risk for preventive interventions are compromised by omitting social deprivation, which contributes to risk. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: The SHHEC (Scottish heart health extended cohort) study of random sample risk factor surveys across 25 districts of Scotland in 1984-87 and North Glasgow in 1989, 1992, and 1995. PARTICIPANTS: 6419 men and 6618 women aged 30-74, free of cardiovascular disease at baseline, followed up with permission for mortality and morbidity to March 1997. Participants were allocated to population fifths of the Scottish index of multiple deprivation (SIMD) and their observed coronary risk was compared with that expected from the Framingham score for all coronary heart disease. RESULTS: The Framingham score overestimated risk overall and in each SIMD fifth. It seriously underestimated the variation in risk with deprivation. The relative risk of observed 10 year coronary risk (sexes combined) analysed across population fifths had a steep gradient, from least to most deprived, of 1.00, 1.81, 1.98, 2.22, and 2.57. Expected risk, calculated from baseline risk factor values and the Framingham score, had one quarter of that gradient, with relative risks of 1.00, 1.17, 1.19, 1.28, and 1.36. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular risk estimated by the Framingham and related scores is misleading in guiding treatment decisions among people at different levels of social deprivation. Such scores foster relative undertreatment of the socially deprived, exacerbating the social gradients in disease, which national policies seek to minimise. Debate and action are needed to correct this anomaly.
Adult↗
Type-II diabetes and pancreatic cancer: a meta-analysis of 36 studies.
Pancreatic cancer is the eighth major form of cancer-related death worldwide, causing 227 000 deaths annually. Type-II diabetes is widely considered to be associated with pancreatic cancer, but whether this represents a causal or consequential association is unclear. We conducted a meta-analysis to examine this association. A computer-based literature search from 1966 to 2005 yielded 17 case-control and 19 cohort or nested case-control studies with information on 9220 individuals with pancreatic cancer. The age and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for pancreatic cancer associated with type-II diabetes was obtained from each study. The combined summary odds ratio was 1.82 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.66-1.89), with evidence of heterogeneity across the studies (P=0.002 for case-control and P=0.05 for cohort studies) that was explained, in part, by higher risks being reported by smaller studies and studies that reported before 2000. Individuals in whom diabetes had only recently been diagnosed (< 4 years) had a 50% greater risk of the malignancy compared with individuals who had diabetes for > or =5 years (OR 2.1 vs 1.5; P=0.005). These results support a modest causal association between type-II diabetes and pancreatic cancer.
Case-Control Studies↗
Is a single definition of the metabolic syndrome appropriate?--A comparative study of the USA and Asia.
The metabolic syndrome has been identified as an increasingly important precursor to cardiovascular diseases in many Asian populations. Our objective was to compare the contribution of component risk factors to the diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome, as defined by the Third report of the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP-ATPIII), in the US and selected Asian populations. Nationally representative survey data from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand and the US were used. Analyses were restricted to men and women aged > or = 35 years. The age-standardized prevalence of the NCEP-ATPIII defined metabolic syndrome was highest in the US (31% in men, 35% in women), and lowest in Taiwan (11% in men, 12% in women). The component risk factors that defined the presence of the metabolic syndrome varied between countries. As expected, abnormal waist circumference was considerably more prevalent among individuals with the metabolic syndrome in the US (72% in men, 94% in women) compared with their Asian counterparts, but substantial variation was also observed between the Asian populations (13-22% in men, 38-63% in women). Furthermore, the relative contribution of other risk factors to the metabolic syndrome was also substantially different between countries. The NCEP-ATPIII definition identifies a heterogeneous group of individuals with the metabolic syndrome in different populations.
Blood Pressure↗
Smoking, quitting, and the risk of cardiovascular disease among women and men in the Asia-Pacific region.
BACKGROUND: Although smoking is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, it has been suggested that Asians may be less susceptible to the adverse effects of smoking than Caucasians. This may have contributed to the high prevalence of smoking, and the low quitting rates, in Asian men. Worldwide, smoking rates are increasing for women, amongst whom cardiovascular awareness is relatively poor. METHODS: An individual participant data analysis of 40 cohort studies was carried out, involving 463 674 Asians (33% female) and 98 664 Australasians (45% female). Cox proportional hazard models, stratified by study and sex where appropriate, were employed. RESULTS: The HR [95% confidence interval (CI)], comparing current smokers with non-smokers, for coronary heart disease (CHD) was 1.60 (1.49-1.72); haemorrhagic stroke 1.19 (1.06-1.33); ischaemic stroke 1.38 (1.24-1.54). There was a clear dose-response relationship between the number of cigarettes smoked per day and both CHD and stroke, with no significant difference (P >/= 0.20) between populations from Asia and Australia/New Zealand. Although there was no sex difference for stroke in the effect of amount smoked (P = 0.16), for CHD, women tended to have higher hazard ratios than men (P = 0.011). Quitting gave a clear benefit, which was not significantly different between the sexes or regions (P > 0.63). The HR (CI) for ex-smokers compared with current smokers was 0.71 (0.64-0.78) for CHD and 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Unless urgent public health measures are put into place, the impact of the smoking epidemic in Asia, and among women, will be enormous. Tobacco control policies that specifically target these populations are essential.
Adult↗
Fat distribution is strongly associated with plasma glucose levels and diabetes in Thai adults-the InterASIA study.
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Asian populations have high risks of disease at low levels of BMI and weight, possibly because of high rates of abdominal obesity. In such populations, waist circumference and WHR (measures of fat distribution) may better capture the effects of adiposity. METHODS: The strengths of the associations between different measures of adiposity and glucose levels and diabetes were investigated in the Thai component of the International Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Disease in Asia (InterASIA), a multi-stage cross-sectional survey of risk factors in Thai adults aged 35 years or over. The analyses included 5,302 men and women. RESULTS: All four measures of adiposity were positively associated with plasma glucose and the odds of having diabetes (all p<0.001), but the associations were stronger for measures of fat distribution. The age- and sex-adjusted fasting plasma glucose level increased linearly across each fifth of weight, BMI, waist and WHR by 0.12 mmol/l (SE 0.02), 0.12 (0.02), 0.17 (0.02) and 0.16 (0.02), respectively. The corresponding odds ratios for diabetes were 1.41 (95% CI 1.27-1.56), 1.43 (1.28-1.59), 1.64 (1.47-1.83) and 1.70 (1.52-1.90), respectively. Multivariate analyses incorporating different combinations of adiposity measures, as well as analyses of receiver operating characteristics, confirmed the greater predictive value of measures of fat distribution. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Waist circumference and WHR were more strongly associated with fasting plasma glucose and diabetes than were weight and BMI. These measures of abdominal adiposity are likely to be more useful for assessing the obesity-related risk of cardiovascular diseases in Asian populations.
Adipose Tissue↗
A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific region.
PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction.
Adult↗
First trimester maternal blood rheology and pregnancy induced hypertension.
This study evaluates the relationship between the first trimester assessment of maternal rheology and the subsequent development of pregnancy induced hypertension. This is a prospective observational study based in the Glasgow Royal Maternity Hospital, Scotland. From an original population of 744 consecutive antenatal attendees a total of 579 women were booked at less than 14 weeks' gestation. The main study group is a further subset comprising 251 primigravid women booking with a singleton pregnancy without essential hypertension. Previously published data from a group of non-pregnant women of similar age drawn from the same local community was used for external comparison. Blood samples were collected at the booking visit, from which fibrinogen, red cell aggregation, haematocrit and plasma, whole blood, relative and corrected viscosities were recorded. Information was obtained from the case notes in retrospect starting approximately 1 year after the first patients had first been recruited into the trial. The overall outcome of the pregnancies was noted with particular reference to pregnancy induced hypertension (PIH), birth weight, antepartum haemorrhage, pre-term labour, perinatal death, condition at delivery and neonatal complication. Our results show PIH is associated with a significantly raised mean blood viscosity and fibrinogen at time of booking. All significance disappears after adjustment for smoking, diastolic blood pressure and age. Viscosity is, however, only marginally non-significant (p = 0.07). In conclusion, blood rheology, in particular blood viscosity and fibrinogen, may play a predictive role in the development of pregnancy-induced hypertension. When combined with measurement of smoking and diastolic blood pressure at booking, these measurements could be used to calculate a risk score for the development of PIH, allowing targeting of antenatal care. Further data is required.
Adult↗
A comparison of the associations between risk factors and cardiovascular disease in Asia and Australasia.
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is already the leading cause of death in many Asian populations. Relationships between vascular risk factors and cardiovascular disease may differ in Asian and western populations. Previously, a lack of prospective data has prevented the reliable quantification of such differences, which, if they were shown to exist, would suggest that novel cardiovascular prevention and treatment strategies are required for Asia. DESIGN: An individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 studies from the Asia-Pacific region involving 331 100 subjects (75% from Asia; 25% from the predominantly Caucasian populations of Australia and New Zealand). METHODS: Outcomes were death from coronary heart disease, ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. Hazard ratios were estimated from Cox models for systolic blood pressure (SBP), total cholesterol, triglycerides, body mass index, diabetes and current cigarette smoking, stratified by study and sex and adjusted for age, the other risk factors and regression dilution. RESULTS: After an average period of follow-up of 4 years there were 2082 deaths from coronary heart disease, 600 from haemorrhagic stroke and 420 from ischaemic stroke. The direction and strength of the associations between risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes were similar in the two regions, although in two cases there were significant differences. Triglycerides were more strongly associated with coronary heart disease in Australia and New Zealand (P = 0.03), whereas SBP showed a stronger relationship with haemorrhagic stroke in Asia (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Classical vascular risk factors act similarly in Asian and Caucasian populations; prevention and treatment strategies should thus be similar. Blood pressure reduction should be particularly effective in Asia.
Asia↗
Serum triglycerides as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in the Asia-Pacific region.
BACKGROUND: The importance of serum triglyceride levels as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. Cox models were applied to the combined data from 26 studies to estimate the overall and region-, sex-, and age-specific hazard ratios for major cardiovascular diseases by fifths of triglyceride values. During 796,671 person-years of follow-up among 96,224 individuals, 670 and 667 deaths as a result of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, respectively, were recorded. After adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, participants grouped in the highest fifth of triglyceride levels had a 70% (95% CI, 47 to 96) greater risk of CHD death, an 80% (95% CI, 49 to 119) higher risk of fatal or nonfatal CHD, and a 50% (95% CI, 29% to 76%) increased risk of fatal or nonfatal stroke compared with those belonging to the lowest fifth. The association between triglycerides and CHD death was similar across subgroups defined by ethnicity, age, and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Serum triglycerides are an important and independent predictor of CHD and stroke risk in the Asia-Pacific region. These results may have clinical implications for cardiovascular risk prediction and the use of lipid-lowering therapy.
Aged↗