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Biomedical subjects

M Kirkilionis

Publications and source records attributed to M Kirkilionis.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

On the formulation and analysis of general deterministic structured population models. II. Nonlinear theory.

This paper is as much about a certain modelling methodology, as it is about the constructive definition of future population states from a description of individual behaviour and an initial population state. The key idea is to build a nonlinear model in two steps, by explicitly introducing the environmental condition via the requirement that individuals are independent from one another (and hence equations are linear) when this condition is prescribed as a function of time. A linear physiologically structured population model is defined by two rules, one for reproduction and one for development and survival, both depending on the initial individual state and the prevailing environmental condition. In Part I we showed how one can constructively define future population state operators from these two ingredients. A nonlinear model is a linear model together with a feedback law that describes how the environmental condition at any particular time depends on the population size and composition at that time. When applied to the solution of the linear problem, the feedback law yields a fixed point problem. This we solve constructively by means of the contraction mapping principle, for any given initial population state. Using subsequently this fixed point as input in the linear population model, we obtain a population semiflow. We then say that we solved the nonlinear problem.

Animals↗

Ring vaccination.

Based on the description of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a particle model is developed describing the most important properties of this epidemic. Also control measures (mass and ring vaccination) are implemented. This model shows the expected behavior in simulations. Since it is impossible to treat this model analytically, we use ideas of branching processes on two levels to derive a caricature of the particle model. In simulations it is shown that this caricature exhibits similar behavior as the particle system. It is possible to analyze the caricature and, in this way, to obtain expressions for the most important quantities like the reproduction number or the expected final number of infected individuals etc. In this way mass vaccination and ring vaccination can be compared and control strategies can be optimized.

Animals↗