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M Goldacre

Publications and source records attributed to M Goldacre.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Impact of socio-economic deprivation on death rates after surgery for upper gastrointestinal tract cancer.

We hypothesised that socio-economic deprivation in England may be a prognostic factor for death after oesophagectomy or gastrectomy for cancer of the upper gastrointestinal tract. We analysed statistical data from hospital records linked to death records for patients who underwent operations for oesophageal and gastric cancer in England from April 1998 to March 2002. The patients were stratified into quintiles according to the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) (2000) for their place (ward) of residence. Age and sex standardised death rates at 30 and 90 days for each deprivation quintile were calculated. Following oesophagectomy, death rates showed a significant association with IMD. They increased with increasing levels of deprivation: the odds ratio for death, comparing highest with lowest quintile for deprivation, was 1.37 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.85) at 30 days and 1.30 (1.04-1.64) at 90 days. Following gastrectomy, the death rates showed smaller and nonsignificant associations with IMD with odds ratios of 1.16 (0.84-1.62) and 1.10 (0.86-1.41), respectively. There is a significant association between social deprivation and death after oesophagectomy, but less of an association, if any, after gastrectomy in current UK practice.

Digestive System Surgical Procedures↗
PubMed2006

Use of case fatality and readmission measures to compare hospital performance in gynaecology.

OBJECTIVE: To identify suitable outcome measures for comparing gynaecology performance between hospitals. DESIGN: Analysis of routinely collected statistics. SETTING: England. POPULATION A total of 1.45 million gynaecology admissions in 1999/2001. METHODS: The database used was a linked file of English NHS hospital admission statistics and death certificate data. Case fatality rates (CFRs)and emergency readmission (ERA) rates were calculated for different components of gynaecology workload. Funnel plots, using age-sex standardised measures, were displayed to compare the outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: CFRs and ERA rates. RESULTS: The CFR within 30 days after admission for patients with cancer was 5.1%. These patients accounted for only 3% of all the admissions but for 73% of all 30-day deaths. All other 30-day CFRs were extremely low-below 0.5%. The 30-day ERA rates ranged from 1.8% after day case care to 17.4% after emergency admissions for people who did not have an operation. Funnel plots showed considerable variation between hospitals for ERA after day case care but not after elective abdominal hysterectomy. CONCLUSIONS: There are no measures of mortality that could be used routinely and meaningfully to compare the performance of gynaecology units. We suggest that two suitable comparative measures of outcome, derivable from routine hospital statistics, are 30-day ERA rates after day case admissions and after elective abdominal hysterectomy, excluding those records with a cancer diagnosis. These measures are relatively homogeneous with respect to their likely rates of adverse events and have sufficient numbers to produce potentially useful comparative results.

Emergencies↗
PubMed2004

The role of manual occupation in the aetiology of Dupuytren's disease in men in England and Wales.

We compared the incidence of significant Dupuytren's disease in men across occupational social classes in England and Wales, using data from the National Morbidity Survey. We found that manual occupational social class was not associated with an increased incidence of Dupuytren's disease. In fact, the incidence rates of Dupuytren's disease in the elderly were higher in non-manual than in manual social classes.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Economic implications of multiple births: inpatient hospital costs in the first 5 years of life.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate long term health service costs for hospital stays associated with singleton, twin, and higher order multiple births up to 5 years of age. DESIGN: Costs from specialty based data from the English Department of Health's NHS Trust Financial Returns were applied to admissions recorded in the Oxford record linkage study during 1970-1993. SETTING: Oxfordshire and West Berkshire, United Kingdom. SUBJECTS: A total of 276,897 children, of whom 270,428 were singletons, 6284 were twins, and 185 were higher order multiple births. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Duration of hospital admissions during the first 5 years of life. Costs, expressed in pound sterling and valued at 1998-1999 prices, of hospital inpatient services. RESULTS: The total duration of hospital admissions for twins and triplets were respectively twice and eight times that for singletons, once duration of life had been taken into account. Inpatient costs were significantly higher for multiple births than for singletons, with the cost differences concentrated in the first year of life. Over the first 5 years of life, the adjusted mean cost was estimated at 1532 pounds (95% confidence interval (CI) 1516 pounds to 1548 pounds) for singletons, 3826 pounds (95%CI 3724 pounds to 3929 pounds) for twins, and 8156 pounds (95%CI 7559 pounds to 8754 pounds) for higher order multiple births (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple births contribute disproportionately to hospital inpatient costs, especially during the children's first year of life.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2001

Intercurrent drug therapy and perioperative cardiovascular mortality in elective and urgent/emergency surgical patientst.

The Oxford Record Linkage Study (ORLS; an epidemiological database) was used to examine relationships between intercurrent cardiovascular drug therapy and cardiac death within 30 days of elective or emergency/urgent surgery under general anaesthesia. Cases identified from the ORLS were paired with matched control patients. Clinical details were obtained from the patients' medical notes. In elective surgical patients, there was no effect of beta-adrenoceptor or calcium entry channel blockade, diuretics or digoxin on cardiac death after adjusting for confounding variables. Use of nitrates was associated with an odds ratio of 4.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-22.72] for cardiac death after adjustment for confounding by a history of angina and residual age difference. In emergency/urgent patients, there were significant univariate associations with cardiac death for intercurrent use of angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors (odds ratio 1.18) and diuretics (odds ratio 4.95; 95% CI 1.82-13.46). However, neither maintained significance after adjustment for the confounding effect of cardiac failure. We conclude that, with the possible exception of the use of nitrates in elective surgical patients, chronic intercurrent drug treatment alone does not significantly affect the odds of cardiac death within 30 days of surgery.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗
PubMed2000

Reproductive factors, subfertility, and risk of neural tube defects: a case-control study based on the Oxford Record Linkage Study Register.

Periconceptual exposure to subfertility treatments is increasingly common, raising concerns about the possibility of malformations in the offspring. The authors conducted a case-control study to determine whether subfertility or its treatment was associated with increased risk of neural tube defects (NTDs). Cases were 694 women diagnosed with an NTD-affected pregnancy in Oxfordshire or West Berkshire, England, between 1970 and 1987. Cases were individually matched on maternal year of birth and year of index pregnancy to controls randomly selected from a computerized database. Data on demographic, reproductive, and obstetric factors were abstracted from patient hospital records. Overall, the period prevalences of subfertility and of subfertility treatment were 7% and 3%, respectively, No evidence was found that the risk of NTD-affected pregnancies was increased by either subfertility (odds ratio (OR) = 1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7, 2.1) or its treatment (OR = 0.9, 95% CI: 0.4, 2.0). After adjustment, NTD-affected pregnancies were associated with female offspring (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.8, 3.1), multiple birth (OR = 4.8, 95% CI: 1.2, 18.8), and higher numbers of pregnancies (p for trend = 0.005). The findings from this large, population-based study were wholly consistent with those from smaller studies that found no increased risk of NTD associated with exposure to fertility treatments but reported associations with various pregnancy outcomes.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Views of academic dentists about careers in academic dentistry in the United Kingdom.

The aim of this paper is to report the views of academic dentists about careers in academic dentistry assessed by method of a postal questionnaire survey. The subjects of the survey were dentists in academic posts in the United Kingdom. The incentives in pursuing an academic career which respondents rated most highly were the opportunity to teach and the variety of work in an academic career. The greatest disincentives were competing pressures from service work, teaching and research, and the difficulty of getting research grants. Many would like to spend more time on research and less on service work and teaching. The length of time required for training, and the quality of training, was a concern, particularly for junior academics. Most respondents rated the enjoyment of their job highly but scored much lower on satisfaction with the time their job left for domestic and leisure activities. By contrast with academic medicine, in academic dentistry there is typically greater emphasis on teaching and less on research. In conclusion, the balance of activities in academic posts, particularly between service work, teaching and research, needs to be regularly reviewed. The development of a more structured training programme for junior academics, which does not disadvantage academic dentists when compared with their NHS colleagues, may be required.

Attitude of Health Personnel↗
PubMed2000

Nutritional research in World War 2: the Oxford Nutrition Survey and its research potential 50 years later.

To investigate the nutritional status of the population of the UK during the Second World War, nutritional surveys were commissioned in 1941. These included surveys of two groups of pregnant women: the first comprised 120 working-class women who were studied in the spring of 1942, and a second group of 253 women in 1944. Both groups were followed up until after delivery. Detailed biochemical assessments were performed on each subject. Our statistical analysis of the haematological data showed that nearly 25% of women from the 1942 group were deficient in protein, over 60% were deficient in Fe and vitamin A, and over 70% had severe vitamin C deficiency. The findings were reported to the Ministries of Health and Food who instigated a food supplementation policy at the end of 1942 that entitled pregnant women in the UK to extra rations of fruit, dairy produce and to a supply of cod-liver-oil tablets. A second group of 253 pregnant women were studied 15 months later which enabled the effects of this programme to be investigated. Supplementation reduced the proportion of women with vitamin A concentrations below the normal range from 63% to 38%, and vitamin C from 78% to 20%, but protein and Fe concentrations were not increased but actually declined. These findings continued to exert an influence over government food policy for pregnant women until the abolition of rationing in 1954.

Anemia, Iron-Deficiency↗
PubMed2000

Use of large medical databases to study associations between diseases.

We describe the use of a dataset of statistical medical records, the Oxford Record Linkage Study (ORLS), to identify diseases which occur together more commonly (association), or less commonly (dissociation), than their individual frequencies in the population would predict. We investigated some conditions known or suspected to enhance the subsequent risk of cancer, some conditions thought to be linked with schizophrenia, and some associations between conditions with a known autoimmune component. Diseases may occur in combination more often (or less often) than expected by chance because one predisposes to (or protects against) another or because they share environmental and/or genetic mechanisms in common. The investigation of such associations can yield important information for clinicians interested in potential disease sequelae, for epidemiologists trying to understand disease aetiology, and for geneticists attempting to determine the genetic basis of variation in disease course among individuals. We suggest that, through the use of datasets like the ORLS, it will be possible to 'map' comprehensively the phenomic expression of co-occurring diseases.

Case-Control Studies↗
PubMed2000

Olive oil, diet and colorectal cancer: an ecological study and a hypothesis.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common cancer in many western countries and is probably caused in part by dietary factors. Southern European countries have lower incidence rates of CRC than many other western countries. It was postulated that, because olive oil is thought to influence bile salt secretion patterns in rats, it may influence the occurrence of CRC. The purpose of this study was to compare national levels of dietary factors, with particular reference to olive oil, with national differences in CRC incidence. DESIGN: Ecological study using existing international databases. Incidence rates for CRC, food supply data, and olive oil consumption data were extracted from published sources, combined, and analysed to calculate the correlations between CRC and 10 dietary factors. Associations were then explored using stepwise multiple regression. SETTING: 28 countries from four continents. MAIN RESULTS: 76% of the intercountry variation in CRC incidence rates was explained by three significant dietary factors-meat, fish and olive oil-in combination. Meat and fish were positively associated, and olive oil was negatively associated, with CRC incidence. CONCLUSION: Olive oil may have a protective effect on the development of CRC. The proposed hypothesis is that olive oil may influence secondary bile acid patterns in the colon that, in turn, might influence polyamine metabolism in colonic enterocytes in ways that reduce progression from normal mucosa to adenoma and carcinoma.

Amine Oxidase (Copper-Containing)↗
PubMed2000

Suicide in psychiatric hospital in-patients. Risk factors and their predictive power.

BACKGROUND: Psychiatric hospital in-patients are known to be at high risk of suicide, yet there is little reliable knowledge of risk factors or their predictive power. AIMS: To identify risk factors for suicide in psychiatric hospital in-patients and to evaluate their predictive power in detecting people at risk of suicide. METHOD: Using a case-control design, 112 people who committed suicide while in-patients in psychiatric hospitals were compared with 112 randomly selected controls. Univariate analysis and multivariate analyses were used to estimate odds ratios and adjusted likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The rate of suicide in psychiatric in-patients was 13.7 (95% CI 11.7-16.1) per 10,000 admissions. There were five predictive factors with likelihood ratios > 2, following adjustment: planned suicide attempt, 4.1; actual suicide attempt, 4.9; recent bereavement, 4.0; presence of delusions, 2.3; chronic mental illness, 2.2; and family history of suicide, 4.6. On this basis, only two of the patients who committed suicide had a predicted risk of suicide above 5%. CONCLUSIONS: Although several factors were identified that were strongly associated with suicide, their clinical utility is limited by low sensitivity and specificity, combined with the rarity of suicide, even in this high-risk group.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMed1999

Junior doctors' views about careers in academic medicine.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate junior doctors' views about careers in academic medicine. DESIGN: Postal questionnaire survey. SETTING: National Health Service in England. SUBJECTS: Doctors in university posts at specialist registrar level, Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust training fellows, and specialist registrars in National Health Service posts. RESULTS: Incentives to pursue an academic career which respondents rated as strong related to the challenge of research and the intellectual environment of research units. The strongest disincentives were perceived difficulties in obtaining research grants and uncertainty regarding pay parity with National Health Service colleagues. Medical Research Council and Wellcome fellows had much more protected research time than other academic doctors but were less satisfied with their clinical training. Academic doctors who were not fellows reported spending less than half their time on research and the great majority agreed that their research suffers when there is pressure on the service side. CONCLUSIONS: The job content of academic posts should be kept under regular review to ensure that clinical service pressures do not inappropriately erode research time while also ensuring that postholders have adequate clinical training. Training programmes need flexibility to accommodate the needs of clinical academics in their progress through higher specialist training.

Attitude of Health Personnel↗
PubMed1999

Risk factors for cardiovascular death within 30 days after anaesthesia and urgent or emergency surgery: a nested case-control study.

The Oxford Record Linkage Study (an epidemiological database) was used to identify patients who died from a cardiovascular cause within 30 days of emergency or urgent surgery under general anaesthesia. Each case was paired with a control patient (matched for age within 10 yr of the patient, operation and consultant). Additional clinical information was sought from the patient's case notes. Cases and controls were compared for cardiovascular risk factors using conditional logistic regression analysis and a prognostic model was generated. Only one significant risk factor was identified in the final model: a history of cardiac failure (odds ratio 14.84; 95% confidence intervals 2.53-87.13; P = 0.003). Associations between a history of cerebrovascular accident or renal impairment and cardiovascular mortality were seen using univariate analysis but not after adjustment for confounding factors.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Risk factors for cardiovascular death after elective surgery under general anaesthesia.

A large epidemiological data set was used to identify 115 patients who died from a cardiovascular cause within 30 days of elective surgery under general anaesthesia. For each patient, a control was identified, matched for age (within 5 yr of the patient), sex, operation and consultant. Patients and controls were compared for cardiovascular risk factors in a matched analysis using conditional logistic regression, and a prognostic model was generated. Three risk factors were included in the final model: previous myocardial infarction (odds ratio 3.18 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.22-8.28), P = 0.018), history of hypertension (odds ratio 1.90 (0.99-3.62), P = 0.047) and renal failure (odds ratio 3.56 (1.04-12.10), P = 0.043).

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Hypertension, admission blood pressure and perioperative cardiovascular risk.

We performed a retrospective case-control study to investigate hypertension and admission blood pressure as risk factors for postoperative cardiovascular death. We identified records of 76 patients who had died of a cardiovascular cause within 30 days of anaesthesia and elective surgery and 76 matched controls. From the records of each patient (case and control) we recorded the admission blood pressure and details of any history of hypertension. A pre-operative history of hypertension was strongly associated with perioperative cardiovascular death (p < 0.001 with one degree of freedom: odds ratio 4.14, 95% confidence intervals 1.63-11.69). There was no association between systolic or diastolic pressure at admission for operation and perioperative cardiovascular death. The mean admission systolic pressure of the cases was 145.5 mmHg (range 90-250 mmHg) and that of the controls was 146.5 mmHg (range 100-200 mmHg). The mean admission diastolic pressure of the cases was 83.2 mmHg (range 60-130 mmHg), and that of the controls was 84.5 mmHg (range 60-110 mmHg).

Aged↗