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L S Freedman

Publications and source records attributed to L S Freedman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

A statistical comparison of different family history scores.

Family history (FH) scores are used for estimating the familial risk (FR), i.e. the level of risk for a particular disease among members of that family. An FH score is created from reports about the disease status of the relatives in each family. The most commonly used score is the dichotomous score (positive when at least one relative is affected), which does not consider the family size, number of affected relatives nor each relative's risk factor profile. Authors have proposed many other FH scores that overcome these deficiencies by using external expected risks adjusted for important risk factors. We consider the use of FH scores in studies, which investigate risk factors for a disease and where family risk is considered as a confounder, and examine through simulations the performance of a variety of FH scores in controlling the FR status. We also examine performance in predicting true FR status. For both criteria, only small differences were found between most of the FH scores, although the dichotomous score performed the poorest. Since the proportion score (the proportion of first-degree relatives of the index who have the disease) is the simplest to calculate, use of this score seems to be justified.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Body mass index at age 18 years and during adult life and ovarian cancer risk.

During the years 1994-1999, a nationwide ovarian cancer case-control study was conducted in Israel. The present analysis addresses the question: Is epithelial ovarian cancer associated with body mass index at age 18 years and/or with weight changes in body mass index between adolescence and adult life? The study is based on 1,269 women with epithelial ovarian cancer and 2,111 matched controls. A significant decrease in risk of ovarian cancer was observed with parity, oral contraceptive use, and postmenopausal status. A significant increase in risk with family history of ovarian/breast cancer was also found. No significant association with age at menarche or infertility was found. For body mass index at age 18 years, the odds ratio of the highest versus lowest body mass index quartile was 1.42 (95% confidence interval: 1.08, 1.85) and after adjusting for confounders was 1.54 (95% confidence interval: 1.17, 2.02). However, no statistically significant risk associated with change in weight from age 18 years to adult life was found. The authors conclude that, in their population, body mass index at age 18 years is an independent risk factor for ovarian cancer.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

A comparison of population-based cancer incidence rates in Israel and Jordan.

Reliable information about comparative cancer incidence in the Middle East has been lacking. The Middle East Cancer Consortium (MECC) has formed a network of population-based registries with standardized basic data. Here the age-adjusted cancer incidences are compared for four populations: Israeli Jews, Israeli non-Jews, Jordanians and the US Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) population, for the years 1996-1997 (Israel) and 1996-1998 (other populations). The all-sites rate of cancer is approximately twice as high in Israeli Jews and SEER, compared with Israeli non-Jews and Jordanians. Rates of lung cancer are similar among Israeli Jews and non-Jews and about twice as high as in Jordanians. Childhood leukaemia rates in Jordan are higher than in Israeli Jews, but lower than SEER. Hodgkin lymphoma rates in Israeli non-Jews and Jordanians are similar to SEER, but non-Hodgkin lymphoma rates are lower than SEER. The previous suspicion of higher overall leukaemia and lymphoma rates in Jordan is thus not confirmed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Design and serendipity in establishing a large cohort with wide dietary intake distributions : the National Institutes of Health-American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Study.

In 1995-1996, the authors mailed a food frequency questionnaire to 3.5 million American Association of Retired Persons members who were aged 50-69 years and who resided in one of six states or two metropolitan areas with high-quality cancer registries. In establishing a cohort of 567,169 persons (340,148 men and 227,021 women), the authors were fortunate in that a less-than-anticipated baseline response rate (threatening inadequate numbers of respondents in the intake extremes) was offset by both a shifting and a widening of the intake distributions among those who provided satisfactory data. Reported median intakes for the first and fifth intake quintiles, respectively, were 20.4 and 40.1 (men) and 20.1 and 40.0 (women) percent calories from fat, 10.3 and 32.0 (men) and 8.7 and 28.7 (women) g per day of dietary fiber, 3.1 and 11.6 (men) and 2.8 and 11.3 (women) servings per day of fruits and vegetables, and 20.7 and 156.8 (men) and 10.5 and 97.0 (women) g per day of red meat. After 5 years of follow-up, the cohort is expected to yield nearly 4,000 breast cancers, more than 10,000 prostate cancers, more than 4,000 colorectal cancers, and more than 900 pancreatic cancers. The large size and wide intake range of the cohort will provide ample power for examining a number of important diet and cancer hypotheses.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

A randomized, controlled clinical trial of the homeopathic medication TRAUMEEL S in the treatment of chemotherapy-induced stomatitis in children undergoing stem cell transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Stomatitis is a common consequence of chemotherapy and a condition for which there is little effective treatment. Although the management of patients with other chemotherapy-related toxicities has improved in recent years, the incidence of stomatitis is increasing because of more intensive treatment and is often a dose limiting factor in chemotherapy. The authors assessed the efficacy of a homeopathic remedy, TRAUMEEL S(R), in the management of chemotherapy-induced stomatitis in children undergoing bone marrow transplantation. METHODS: A randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial was conducted in 32 patients ages 3-25 years who had undergone allogeneic (16 patients) or autologous (16 patients) stem cell transplantation. Of the 30 evaluable patients, 15 were assigned placebo, and 15 were assigned TRAUMEEL S both as a mouth rinse, administered five times daily from 2 days after transplantation for a minimum of 14 days, or until at least 2 days after all signs of stomatitis were absent. Stomatitis scores were evaluated according to the World Health Organization grading system for mucositis. RESULTS: A total of five patients (33%) in the TRAUMEEL S treatment group did not develop stomatitis compared with only one patient (7%) in the placebo group. Stomatitis worsened in only 7 patients (47%) in the TRAUMEEL S treatment group compared with 14 patients (93%) in the placebo group. The mean area under the curve stomatitis scores were 10.4 in the TRAUMEEL S treatment group and 24.3 in the placebo group. This difference was statistically significant (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that TRAUMEEL S may reduce significantly the severity and duration of chemotherapy-induced stomatitis in children undergoing bone marrow transplantation.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Empirical evidence of correlated biases in dietary assessment instruments and its implications.

Multiple-day food records or 24-hour recalls are currently used as "reference" instruments to calibrate food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and to adjust findings from nutritional epidemiologic studies for measurement error. The common adjustment is based on the critical requirements that errors in the reference instrument be independent of those in the FFQ and of true intake. When data on urinary nitrogen level, a valid reference biomarker for nitrogen intake, are used, evidence suggests that a dietary report reference instrument does not meet these requirements. In this paper, the authors introduce a new model that includes, for both the FFQ and the dietary report reference instrument, group-specific biases related to true intake and correlated person-specific biases. Data were obtained from a dietary assessment validation study carried out among 160 women at the Dunn Clinical Nutrition Center, Cambridge, United Kingdom, in 1988-1990. Using the biomarker measurements and dietary report measurements from this study, the authors compare the new model with alternative measurement error models proposed in the literature and demonstrate that it provides the best fit to the data. The new model suggests that, for these data, measurement error in the FFQ could lead to a 51% greater attenuation of true nutrient effect and the need for a 2.3 times larger study than would be estimated by the standard approach. The implications of the results for the ability of FFQ-based epidemiologic studies to detect important diet-disease associations are discussed.

Bias↗
PubMed2001

Bayesian monitoring of a phase 2 chemoprevention trial in high-risk cohorts for prostate cancer.

The objective of phase 2 cancer chemoprevention trials is to evaluate whether a chemopreventive agent will cause significant modulation of intermediate endpoint biomarkers (IEB) in patients at high risk for the disease. A phase 2 chemoprevention trial of 4-hydroxyphenyl retinamide (4-HPR) versus placebo was conducted in men with a histologic diagnosis of early prostate cancer and scheduled to have radical prostatectomy. A Bayesian monitoring method was used to sequentially monitor this trial for evidence of biological activity or ineffectiveness based on a single IEB variable. Different prior distributions were used and posterior distributions were obtained to calculate the probability that treatment differences are greater than or less than a predetermined clinically significant effect. The interim analysis of transforming growth factor-alpha expression indicated a high probability of insufficient biological activity of 4-HPR on this IEB. This study demonstrates the potential utility of Bayesian methods in the decision-making process in the conduct of phase 2 chemoprevention trials.

Anticarcinogenic Agents↗
PubMed2001

Cancer registration in the Middle East.

This project signals an advance in cancer registration in the Middle East region. While it is too early to declare a major breakthrough, significant strides have been made toward establishing a basis for reliable information on the cancer burden at a population level and future collaborative efforts in cancer epidemiologic research and prevention.

Humans↗
PubMed2001

Covariate measurement error adjustment for matched case-control studies.

We propose a conditional scores procedure for obtaining bias-corrected estimates of log odds ratios from matched case-control data in which one or more covariates are subject to measurement error. The approach involves conditioning on sufficient statistics for the unobservable true covariates that are treated as fixed unknown parameters. For the case of Gaussian nondifferential measurement error, we derive a set of unbiased score equations that can then be solved to estimate the log odds ratio parameters of interest. The procedure successfully removes the bias in naive estimates, and standard error estimates are obtained by resampling methods. We present an example of the procedure applied to data from a matched case-control study of prostate cancer and serum hormone levels, and we compare its performance to that of regression calibration procedures.

Bias↗
PubMed2000

Measuring cell proliferation in the rectal mucosa. comparing bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) and proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) assays.

Cell proliferation in the human colorectum can be measured using bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) or proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) assays. Using data from the National Cancer Institute's Polyp Prevention Trial, these two assays are compared using correlation coefficients and variance components analysis. Adjusting for fixed as well as for the random effects of between-biopsy and scoring variation, the estimated correlation is 0.46 for the log labeling index and 0.45 for log proliferative height. This is an estimate of the highest correlation that can be achieved by taking multiple biopsies scored by multiple scorers. For single biopsies, the estimated correlation is 0.16 and 0.10, respectively. There are significant differences between the variance components for the two assays. For example, for log labeling index, PCNA has a lower variation between biopsies than BrdU, but higher variation between scorings. When used in a clinical or epidemiological setting, it is important to take multiple biopsies at multiple time points.

Adenoma↗
PubMed2000

Sample size calculation for clinical trials: the impact of clinician beliefs.

The UK Medical Research Council (MRC) randomized trial of gastric surgery, ST01, compared conventional (D1) with radical (D2) surgery. Sample size estimation was based upon the consensus opinion of the surgical members of the design team, which suggested that a change in 5-year survival from 20% (D1) to 34% (D2) could be realistic and medically important. On the basis of these survival rates, the sample size for the trial was 400 patients. However, this trial was exceptional in the way that a survey of surgeons' opinions was made at the start of the trial, in 1986, and again before results were analysed but after termination of the trial in 1994. At the initial survey, the three surgeons from the trial steering committee and 23 other surgeons experienced in treating gastric carcinoma were given detailed questionnaires. They were asked about the expected survival rate in the D1 group, anticipated difference in survival from D2 surgery, and what difference would be medically important and influence future treatment of patients. The consensus opinion of those surveyed was that there might be a survival improvement of 9.4%. In 1994, prior to closure of the trial, and before any survival information was disclosed, the survey was repeated with 21 of the original 26 surgeons. At this second survey, the opinion of the trial steering committee was that 9.5% difference was more realistic. This was in accord with the opinion of the larger group, which remained little changed since 1986. The baseline 5-year D1 survival was thought likely to be about 32%, which corresponded closely to the actual survival of recruited patients. Revised sample size calculations suggested that, on the basis of these more recent opinions, between 800 and 1200 patients would have been required. Both surveys assessed the level of treatment benefit that was deemed to be sufficient for causing surgeons to change their practice. This showed that the 13% difference in survival used as the study target was clinically relevant, but also indicated that many clinicians would remain unwilling to change their practice if the difference is only 9.5%. The experience of this carefully designed trial illustrates the problems of designing long-term, randomized trials. It raises interesting questions about the common practice of basing sample size estimates upon the beliefs of a trial design committee that may include a number of enthusiasts for the trial treatment. If their opinion of anticipated effect sizes drives the design of the trial, rather than the opinion of a larger community of experts that includes sceptics as well as enthusiasts, there is likely to be a serious miscalculation of sample size requirements.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2000

The next 10 years of biostatistics.

I return to an article on the future of statistics written by Sir Maurice Kendall some 30 years ago. I draw some parallels between the state of general statistics at that time and the state of biostatistics today, and try to learn from the successes and omissions in Sir Maurice's predictions to make my own limited projections for the next 10 years.

Biometry↗
PubMed1999

Implications of a new dietary measurement error model for estimation of relative risk: application to four calibration studies.

Food records or 24-hour recalls are currently used to calibrate food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and to correct disease risks for measurement error. The standard regression calibration approach requires that these reference measures contain only random within-person errors uncorrelated with errors in FFQs. Increasing evidence suggests that records/recalls are likely to be also flawed with systematic person-specific biases, so that for any individual the average of multiple replicate assessments may not converge to her/his true usual nutrient intake. The authors propose a new measurement error model to accommodate person-specific bias in the reference measure and its correlation with systematic error in the FFQ. Sensitivity analysis using calibration data from four studies demonstrates that failure to account for person-specific bias in the reference measure can often lead to substantial underestimation of the relative risk for a nutrient. These results indicate that in the absence of information on the extent of person-specific biases in reference instruments and their relation to biases in FFQs, the adequacy of the standard methods of correcting relative risks for measurement error is in question, as is the interpretation of negative findings from nutritional epidemiology such as failure to detect an important relation between fat intake and breast cancer.

Bias↗
PubMed1999

Bayesian monitoring of phase II trials in cancer chemoprevention.

Early randomized Phase II cancer chemoprevention trials which assess short-term biological activity are critical to the decision process to advance to late Phase II/Phase III trials. We have adapted published Bayesian interim analysis methods (Spiegelhalter et al., J. R. Statist. Soc A, 1994; 157: 357-416) which give greater flexibility and simplicity of inference to the monitoring of randomized controlled Phase II trials using intermediate endpoints. The Bayesian stopping rule is designed to stop the trial more quickly when the evidence suggests ineffectiveness rather than when it suggests biological activity, thus allowing resources to be concentrated on those agents that show the most promise in this early stage of testing. We investigate frequentist performance characteristics of the proposed method through simulation of randomized placebo controlled trials with a growth factor intermediate end-point using mean and variance values derived from the literature. Simulation results show expected error rates and trial size similar to other commonly used group sequential methods for this setting. These results suggest that the Bayesian approach to interim analysis is well suited for monitoring small randomized controlled Phase II chemoprevention trials for early detection of either inactive or promising agents.

Antineoplastic Agents↗