Neonatal mortality by place of delivery in São Paulo, Brazil.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to L C Rodrigues.
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OBJECTIVE: To establish the incidence and aetiology of infectious intestinal disease in the community and presenting to general practitioners. Comparison with incidence and aetiology of cases reaching national laboratory based surveillance. DESIGN: Population based community cohort incidence study, general practice based incidence studies, and case linkage to national laboratory surveillance. SETTING: 70 general practices throughout England. PARTICIPANTS: 459 975 patients served by the practices. Community surveillance of 9776 randomly selected patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of infectious intestinal disease in community and reported to general practice. RESULTS: 781 cases were identified in the community cohort, giving an incidence of 19.4/100 person years (95% confidence interval 18.1 to 20.8). 8770 cases presented to general practice (3.3/100 person years (2.94 to 3.75)). One case was reported to national surveillance for every 1.4 laboratory identifications, 6.2 stools sent for laboratory investigation, 23 cases presenting to general practice, and 136 community cases. The ratio of cases in the community to cases reaching national surveillance was lower for bacterial pathogens (salmonella 3.2:1, campylobacter 7.6:1) than for viruses (rotavirus 35:1, small round structured viruses 1562:1). There were many cases for which no organism was identified. CONCLUSIONS: Infectious intestinal disease occurs in 1 in 5 people each year, of whom 1 in 6 presents to a general practitioner. The proportion of cases not recorded by national laboratory surveillance is large and varies widely by microorganism. Ways of supplementing the national laboratory surveillance system for infectious intestinal diseases should be considered.
BACKGROUND: Continued medical care (including having a personal doctor) is regarded as an essential aspect of a good health service. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the present study were to investigate the reasons for not having a personal doctor, and the satisfaction with the care received by patients with and without a personal doctor. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study with data collected during 20 days over 6 months in the Emergency Service of the Conceição Hospital, the busiest emergency service in Porto Alegre. The subjects were 553 patients selected through systematic random sampling. The main outcome measure was having a personal doctor. Patients who reported usually to see the same doctor and remembered their physician's name were regarded as having a personal doctor. RESULTS: Patients who usually use primary care service represented 23% of the sample, and were four times more likely to have a personal doctor (OR = 3.83, CI 95% = 2.41-6.11). Independent, statistically significant variables associated with having a personal physician were: usually receiving care from a primary health care service (OR = 3.8, CI 95% = 2.39-6.00) and from a physician in the private sector (OR = 2.16, CI 95% = 1.15-4.00). Patients who had a personal doctor reported higher satisfaction with their access to health care. The personal doctors' specialties were: internal medicine (37%), cardiologist (17%), gynaecologist-obstetrician (13%), family physician (8%) and pneumologist (6%). CONCLUSIONS: For patients who attend emergency services in Brazil, primary health care and private medical care provide better access to continuity of patient care. Patients with personal doctors report higher satisfaction with access to consultations.
BACKGROUND: One of the aims of the Study of Infectious Intestinal Disease (IID) in England is to estimate the incidence of IID presenting to general practice. This sub-study aims to estimate and correct the degree of under-ascertainment in the national study. METHODS: Cases of presumed IID which presented to general practice in the national study had been ascertained by their GP. In 26 general practices, cases with computerized diagnoses suggestive of IID were identified retrospectively. Cases which fulfilled the case definition of IID and should have been ascertained to the coordinating centre but were not, represented the under-ascertainment. Logistic regression modelling was used to identify independent factors which influenced under-ascertainment. RESULTS: The records of 2021 patients were examined, 1514 were eligible and should have been ascertained but only 974 (64%) were. There was variation in ascertainment between the practices (30% to 93%). Patient-related factors independently associated with ascertainment were: i) vomiting only as opposed to diarrhoea with and without vomiting (OR 0.37) and ii) consultation in the surgery as opposed to at home (OR 2.18). Practice-related factors independently associated with ascertainment were: i) participation in the enumeration study component (OR 1.78), ii) a larger number of partners (OR 0.3 for 7-8 partners); iii) rural location (OR 2.27) and iv) previous research experience (OR 1.92). Predicted ascertainment percentages were calculated according to practice characteristics. CONCLUSION: Under-ascertainment of IID was substantial (36%) and non-random and had to be corrected. Practice characteristics influencing variation in ascertainment were identified and a multivariate model developed to identify adjustment factors which could be applied to individual practices. Researchers need to be aware of factors which influence ascertainment in acute epidemiological studies based in general practice.
BACKGROUND: The verbal autopsy (VA) is used to collect information on cause-specific mortality from bereaved relatives. A cause of death may be assigned by physician review of the questionnaires, or by an algorithm. We compared the diagnostic accuracy of physician review, an expert algorithm, and data-derived algorithms. METHODS: Data were drawn from a multicentre validation study of 796 adult deaths that occurred in hospitals in Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Ghana. A 'gold standard' cause of death was assigned using hospital records and death certificates. The VA interviews were carried out by trained fieldworkers 1-21 months after the subject's death. A cause of death was assigned by physician review and an expert algorithm. Data-derived algorithms that most accurately estimated the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for each cause of death were identified using logistic regression. RESULTS: The most common causes of death were tuberculosis/AIDS (CSMF = 18.6%), malaria (CSMF = 10.7%), meningitis (CSMF = 8.3%), and cardiovascular disorders (CSMF = 8.2%). The CSMF obtained using physician review was within +/-20% of the gold standard value for 12 causes of death including the four common causes. The CSMF obtained using the expert algorithm was within +/-20% of the gold standard for eight causes of death, including tuberculosis/AIDS, malaria, and meningitis. The CSMF obtained using the data-derived algorithms was within +/-20% of the gold standard for seven causes of death, including tuberculosis/ AIDS, meningitis, and cardiovascular disorders. All three methods yielded a specificity of at least 80% for all causes of death, and a sensitivity of at least 80% for deaths due to injuries and rabies. CONCLUSIONS: For those settings where physician review is not feasible, expert and data-derived algorithms provide an alternative approach for assigning many causes of death. We recommend that the algorithms proposed herein are validated further.
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OBJECTIVE: Women suffer from minor psychiatric disorders (MPM) more frequently than men. Most of the studies were conducted in England and in the United States and some reported the higher occurrence of MPM among women to be modified by marital status and others by sociodemographic variables. The present study intends to address this question in a developing country. METHOD: A population based case-control study was conducted in three important urban centers in Brazil. Two hundred seventy-six individuals diagnosed as new cases of MPM and 261 controls were selected to investigate the role of a set of sociodemographic variables in the association between gender and MPM using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that women were more likely than men to suffer from MPM (OR = 3.34; 2.27-4.91). After controlling for other sociodemographic variables, female gender was still positively associated with MPM, but not in a homogeneous way. A multiplicative interaction of gender with age group was found (LRT = 6.01; 2 df; p = 0.05) suggesting an increment in the magnitude of the association among those older than thirty years. Odds-ratios were 2.33 (1.19-4.55), 6.85 (2.86-16.41), and 7.47 (2.90-19.22) for age groups of fourteen to twenty-nine; thirty to forty-four; forty-five or more, respectively. There was no evidence of interaction of gender with marital status or other sociodemographic variables. CONCLUSIONS: The findings are consistent with the modification of the association between gender and MPM being mediated by social factors.
The Committee on the Microbiological Safety of Food, set up in 1989 by the Department of Health in response to national epidemics of foodborne infection, considered the available evidence and commissioned a study of infectious intestinal disease (IID) in England. Seventy practices (with 489,500) patients overall) recruited from the Medical Research Council's General Practice Research Framework between August 1993 and January 1995 collected data for one year. The practice populations were representative of practices in England by area and urban/rural location, but with fewer small and affluent practices. There were five main components. i) A population cohort of 9776 (40% of those eligible) were enrolled to estimate the incidence and aetiology of IID in the community, and a large proportion were followed up. A median of 10% of patients on practice age-sex registers had moved away or died. ii) A nested case control component based on cases ascertained in the cohort was used to identify risk factors for IID in the community. iii) In a case control component used to identify risk factors and to estimate the incidence and aetiology of IID presenting in 34 general practices 70% of the 4026 cases returned risk factor questionnaires, 75% submitted stools, and matched controls were found for 75% of cases. iv) An enumeration component was used to estimate the incidence of IID presenting to general practitioners (GPs) in 36 practices and the proportion of specimens sent routinely for microbiological examination. v) In a socioeconomic costs component used to estimate the burden of illness of IID in the community and presenting to GPs 63% of those who returned a risk factor questionnaire also returned a socioeconomic questionnaire and were representative by age, sex, and social class. Despite variable enrolment and compliance the study sample had sufficient power for the multivariable analysis. The characteristics associated with low enrollment and compliance must be considered in the interpretation of the main study results.
OBJECTIVES: To examine the implications of variation in maternal infectivity on the timing of mother-to-child HIV transmission through breastfeeding. DESIGN AND METHODS: A mathematical model of mother-to-child HIV transmission was developed that incorporates two main features: (i) the fetus/child potentially experiences a series of exposures (in utero, intrapartum, and via breastmilk) to HIV; and (ii) variation in maternal infectivity. The model was estimated from different sources of epidemiological data: a retrospective cohort study of children born to HIV-1-infected women in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, the International Registry of HIV-Exposed Twins, and the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 076 trial, which assessed the effectiveness of zidovudine in preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission. RESULTS: Variation in maternal infectivity results in higher average risk of breastfeeding-related transmission in the early stages of breastfeeding than in the late stages, even in the absence of a direct relationship between transmission risk and the age of the child. However, the available data were unable to resolve the quantitative importance of this mechanism. CONCLUSIONS: Our model has helped identify a previously unrecognized determinant of the timing of breastfeeding-related HIV transmission, which may have adverse implications for the effectiveness of certain interventions to reduce mother-to-child HIV transmission such as maternal antiretroviral therapy in breastfeeding populations and the early cessation of breastfeeding.
Although vertical transmission of HIV-1 can occur through breast-feeding, little is known about the effect of colostrum, duration of breast-feeding, mixing feeding, and nipple pathology. We used retrospective cohort data to examine the association between breast-feeding-related factors and transmission of HIV-1 from mother to child in São Paulo State, Brazil. Information on maternal and postnatal factors was collected by medical record review and interview. Infection status was determined for 434 children by anti-HIV-1 tests performed beyond 18 months of age or diagnosis of AIDS at any age. Among 168 breast-fed children, the risk of transmission of HIV-1 was 21%, compared with 13% (p = .01) among 264 children artificially fed. Breast-feeding was independently and significantly associated with mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 after controlling for stage of maternal HIV-1 disease (odds ratio [OR] = 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-3.8). A trend was shown toward an increased risk of transmission with longer duration of breast-feeding, a history of bleeding nipples, and introduction of other liquid food before weaning, but these associations were not statistically significant. History of colostrum intake or cracked nipples without bleeding were not associated with transmission. Most of the women who breast-fed were unaware of their HIV-1 infection status at the time of delivery. Avoidance of mixed feeding and withholding of breast-feeding in the presence of bleeding nipples should be considered in further research as strategies to reduce postnatal transmission of HIV-1 in settings in which safe and sustainable alternatives for breast-feeding are not yet available.
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of maternal, obstetric, neonatal and post-natal factors on the risk of vertical transmission of HIV-1. DESIGN: Multicentre retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Obstetric and paediatric clinics in four cities in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. MAIN OUTCOME: Child's HIV-1 infection status. METHODS: Data were collected by standardized record abstraction and interview on 553 children born to women identified as HIV-1-infected before or at delivery. Paediatric infection was determined by immunoglobulin G anti-HIV-1 tests at age 18 months or by AIDS diagnosis at any age. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the effect of potential risk factors on vertical transmission of HIV-1. RESULTS: HIV-1 infection status was determined for 434 children (follow-up rate of 78%); 69 were classified as HIV-1-infected [transmission risk, 16%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 13-20%]. In multivariate analysis, advanced maternal HIV-1 disease [odds ratio (OR), 4.5; 95% CI, 2.1-9.5], ever breastfed (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.2), child's negative Rhesus blood group (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.2-5.5), third trimester amniocentesis (OR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.2-13.5) and black racial group (OR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9) were independently and significantly associated with mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1. Transmission was increased marginally with prematurity, more than 10 lifetime sexual partners and prolonged duration of membrane rupture. No association was found between child's HIV-1 infection and mode of delivery or serological evidence of syphilis during pregnancy. CONCLUSION: These findings support the importance of severity of maternal HIV-1 disease in the risk of vertical transmission of HIV-1, indicate measures to reduce transmission by avoiding amniocentesis and breastfeeding and suggest that race and Rhesus blood type may be markers for genetic susceptibility to infection.
BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) has been widely used to ascertain causes of child deaths, but little is known about the usefulness of VA for adult deaths. This paper describes the process used to develop a VA tool for adult deaths and the results of a multicentre validation of this tool. METHODS: A mortality classification was developed by including causes of death that might be arrived at by VAs and causes that are responsive to public health interventions. An algorithm was designed for each cause in the classification, based on classifying symptoms into essential, supportive and differential. A structured questionnaire designed to elicit information on these symptoms was developed in English translated into the local languages. The tool was validated on deaths occurring at hospitals in Tanzania (315 deaths), Ethiopia (249) and Ghana (232). Hospital records of all adult deaths occurring at the study hospitals from June 1993 to April 1995 were collected prospectively. Non-medical interviewers with at least 12 years of formal education conducted VA interviews. Causes of death were diagnosed by a panel of physicians and by a computerized algorithm. The validity of the VA was assessed by comparing the VA diagnoses with hospital diagnoses. RESULTS: Specificity of VAs by physicians fell below 95% only for acute febrile illness (AFI) and TB/AIDS. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV), however, varied widely both across the sites and between causes. Sensitivity was > 75% for tetanus, rabies, direct maternal causes, injuries and TB/AIDS and ranged between 60% and 74% for diarrhoea, acute abdominal conditions and AFI. The PPV was > 75% for tetanus, rabies, hepatitis and injuries and ranged between 60 and 74% for meningitis, AFI, TB/AIDS and direct maternal causes. When the communicable diseases were combined in a single group, the sensitivity was 82%, specificity 78% and PPV 85%. For the group of noncommunicable diseases the corresponding sensitivity, specificity and PPV were 71%, 87% and 67%, respectively. Use of an algorithm resulted in lower sensitivity, specificity and PPV than the VAs by physician. CONCLUSION: VAs by a panel of physicians performed better than an opinion-based algorithm. The validity of VA diagnosis was highest for AFI, direct maternal causes, TB/AIDS, tetanus, rabies and injuries.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the protective efficacy of bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) against tuberculosis decreases with time since vaccination. DESIGN: A quantitative review of all 10 randomized trials of BCG against tuberculosis in purified protein derivative (PPD)-negative individuals, that presented data for discrete periods. For each trial, we derived log rate ratios for the annual change in the efficacy of BCG. We also compared efficacy in the first two years, and the first 10 years, to that in the rest of the trial. RESULTS: There was considerable heterogeneity between trials in the annual change in the efficacy of BCG. In seven efficacy decreased overtime, while in three it increased. Average annual change in efficacy was not related to overall efficacy. Efficacy also varied between trials in the first two years after vaccination, at more than two years after vaccination and in the first ten years after vaccination. However the variation in efficacy between trials more than 10 years after vaccination was not statistically significant (P = 0.26). We therefore calculated that the average efficacy more than 10 years after vaccination was 14% (95% confidence interval -9% to 32%). CONCLUSION: BCG protection can wane with time since vaccination. There is no good evidence that BCG provides protection more than 10 years after vaccination.
This report presents data from a study carried out in three African countries to assess the validity of verbal autopsies--based on information about symptoms and signs observed antemortem by relatives or associates of deceased individuals--for determining the causes of institutional maternal death. The validity of the verbal autopsy was assessed for each cause of death; and for groups of "direct" and "indirect" maternal causes, by comparing the verbal autopsy diagnoses with the reference diagnoses and calculating their sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value. Verbal autopsies were found to be highly specific (98 percent specificity for all causes of maternal death) but not very sensitive (< or = 60 percent sensitivity for all causes except ante/postpartum hemorrhage). Verbal autopsy estimates of cause-specific mortality were comparable to expected values for most of the causes. The study shows that certain direct causes of hospital-based maternal mortality can be determined by means of verbal autopsies with a reasonable level of confidence.
A prospective cohort study of schizophrenia was carried out in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in order to investigate clinical and social outcomes in schizophrenia and related psychoses after hospitalization. A sample of 124 individuals who were living in a defined catchment area and had been consecutively admitted to psychiatric hospitals in that area with clinical diagnoses of non-affective functional psychoses was followed up for 2 years. Assessments of clinical status and social adjustment at inclusion and at 2-year follow-up were carried out by means of standardized instruments, the PSE and the DAS. At the end of the follow-up period, 120 subjects (96.8%) were traced, and 103 (83.1%) were re-assessed. At the second assessment, the proportion of subjects with a nuclear syndrome of schizophrenia had halved (from 68.3% to 32.7%), 23.8% were symptom free and 60.2% showed at least one psychotic symptom. Presence of psychotic symptoms at follow-up was best predicted by educational level (less than 4 years of formal education) and an initial DSM-III-R diagnosis of schizophrenia. The distribution of global social adjustment levels at 2-year follow-up was similar to that observed at the outset, with approximately one third of subjects showing good, one third showing intermediate and one third showing poor global social adjustment. Social disability was best predicted by longer duration of illness, worse social adjustment levels at inclusion and lower educational level.
A case-control study of 712 Brazilian mother-baby pairs was performed to assess maternal nutritional factors, more specifically low or marginal concentrations of vitamin A, folate and iron, as risk factors for intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR). Newborns were classified as being IUGR according to the Lubchenco classification. The gestational age of the newborns was evaluated by the Capurro method. Vitamin A, folate, ferritin and haemoglobin were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography, radioimmunoassay, immunoenzymetric assay and by the cyanmethaemoglobin method respectively. The relationship between maternal nutritional status and IUGR was investigated using stratification and logistic regression. According to the final logistic regression model, the risk factors for IUGR were: maternal body weight, per capita income, cigarette smoking, maternal weight gain, prior history of low birthweight, high maternal ferritin, beer intake and coffee intake. Specific interventions likely to have the major short-term impact in this region are not directly related to nutritional factors, but to efforts to reduce or eliminate toxic exposures. Over the long term, improvement in maternal nutritional status and socioeconomic conditions would be expected to produce important benefits.
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has both a direct and an indirect effect on the incidence of tuberculosis. The direct effect is due to the increased number of cases among HIV-infected individuals because of their enhanced susceptibility to the disease. The indirect effect is increased transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in a community with high levels of dual infection, as a consequence of infectious cases occurring in HIV-infected persons. The risk of infection by M. tuberculosis in the population will then increase, as will the number of tuberculosis cases in the general population. According to the World Health Organization, over 4 million people are estimated to be dually infected with HIV and M. tuberculosis world-wide. In 1990, it was estimated that 300,000 new TB cases (4% of total new cases) were attributable to HIV infection; around 1.4 million cases are expected per year by 2000 (equivalent to about 14% of expected cases), thus increasing the reservoir of tuberculosis patients capable of transmitting the infection to others, and increasing the burden on the already overstretched National Tuberculosis Control Programmes, especially in resource-poor countries. This paper is a review of methods suggested to quantify the effect of the interaction between HIV infection and tuberculosis at population level, and more particularly the effect of HIV on the risk of tuberculosis infection.
HIV prevalence estimates for pregnant women from unlinked anonymous surveys are becoming increasingly available and can be used to determine the prevalence of HIV in women in the same population. The ratio of prevalence in pregnant women to that in all women is influenced by HIV-related risk behaviours that are different for pregnant and nonpregnant women and also by differences in fertility level among infected and uninfected women. This ratio is affected by biases that are likely to be culturally and socially specific. A model is proposed for the qualification and quantification of these biases and hence the estimation of general female population prevalence from serosurveillance data on pregnant women.