Recent versus historical trends in preterm birth in Canada.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to K S Joseph.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
We assessed recent temporal trends in the registration of stillbirths in Canada, with particular regard to stillbirths < 500 g. Data from the Statistics Canada live birth and stillbirth databases for the period 1985-95 were used for the study. The primary analysis was restricted to data from 10 of the 12 provinces and territories of Canada. Data from Newfoundland were excluded because birthweight distributions were not available prior to 1990, and data from Ontario were excluded because of concerns about data quality. The proportion of stillbirths < 500 g increased by 47% [95% confidence interval (CI) 32, 63%], from 12.7% of stillbirths with known birthweight in 1985-7 to 18.7% in 1993-5. Similarly, the rate of stillbirths < 500 g increased by 36% [95% CI 21, 53%], from 7.2 to 9.8 per 10,000 total births from 1985-7 to 1993-5. Similar increases in stillbirth rates were not observed in other low birthweight categories. Live births < 500 g increased 53% [95% CI 33, 77%], from 4.6 to 7.0 per 10,000 live births. Some provinces and territories had low rates of stillbirths < 500 g and no increasing trend, whereas other provinces showed higher rates and increases over time. These regional differences were consistent with differences in stillbirth definitions across the provinces and territories of Canada. Spatio-temporal comparisons of crude stillbirth rates are likely to be compromised unless differences and changes in birth registration practices are addressed.
CONTEXT: Canada and the United States have reported a recent increase in the incidence of preterm birth, but the reasons for this increase are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess secular trends in preterm birth and its potential determinants. DESIGN: Hospital-based cohort study. SETTING: Canadian tertiary care university teaching hospital, 1978-1996. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 65574 nonreferred live births and stillbirths. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in occurrence of preterm birth, before and after adjustment for changes in method of gestational age assessment, obstetric intervention, registration of births weighing less than 500 g, and sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical determinants. RESULTS: A crude secular increase in preterm births was seen for births less than 37, 34, and 32 completed weeks using 3 alternative gestational age estimation methods. Based on an algorithm incorporating both menstrual and early ultrasound gestational age estimates, rates increased from 6.6% to 9.8% for births at less than 37 weeks' gestation, 1.7% to 2.3% at less than 34 weeks, and 1.0% to 1.2% at less than 32 weeks. Exclusion of births weighing less than 500 g and those with induction or preterm cesarean delivery without labor before each of the corresponding gestational age cutoffs eliminated the secular trends for births before 34 and 32 weeks and attenuated the trend for births before 37 weeks. Nearly half of the remaining trend for births before 37 weeks was accounted for by the increasing use of early ultrasound dating. The residual trend was eliminated after controlling for secular increases in unmarried status and the proportion of women aged 35 years or older. These factors, combined with a decrease in alcohol consumption and increases in histological chorioamnionitis and cocaine use, appear to have counteracted a reduction in preterm birth since the mid-1980s that otherwise would have been observed. CONCLUSIONS: This hospital's increase in preterm births since 1978 parallels increases reported in population-based national studies from the United States and Canada. This trend appears largely attributable to the increasing use of early ultrasound dating, preterm induction and preterm cesarean delivery without labor, and changes in sociodemographic and behavioral factors.
BACKGROUND: The rates of preterm birth have increased in many countries, including Canada, over the past 20 years. However, the factors underlying the increase are poorly understood. METHODS: We used data from the Statistics Canada live-birth and stillbirth data bases to determine the effects of changes in the frequency of multiple births, registration of births occurring very early in gestation, patterns of obstetrical intervention, and use of ultrasonographic dating of gestational age on the rates of preterm birth in Canada from 1981 through 1983 and from 1992 through 1994. All births in 9 of the 12 provinces and territories of Canada were included. Logistic-regression analysis and Poisson regression analysis were used to estimate changes between the two three-year periods, after adjustment for the above-mentioned determinants of the likelihood of preterm births. RESULTS: Preterm births increased from 6.3 percent of live births in 1981 through 1983 to 6.8 percent in 1992 through 1994, a relative increase of 9 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 7 to 10 percent). Among singleton births, preterm births increased by 5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 3 to 6 percent). Multiple births increased from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent of all live births; the rates of preterm birth among live births resulting from multiple gestations increased by 25 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 21 to 28 percent). Adjustment for the determinants of the likelihood of preterm birth reduced the increase in the rate of preterm birth to 3 percent among all live births and 1 percent among singleton births. CONCLUSIONS: The recent increase in preterm births in Canada is largely attributable to changes in the frequency of multiple births, obstetrical intervention, and the use of ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
OBJECTIVES: This study sought to quantify the magnitude of Rh disease reduction occurring secondary to Rh prophylaxis and other determinants. METHODS: Outcomes considered included maternal Rh sensitization, neonatal Rh disease, and perinatal deaths from Rh disease. Analysis was based on Poisson regression modeling of ecological data from Manitoba, Canada, and conditional probability modeling. RESULTS: The ecological analysis showed that changes in birth order and Rh prophylaxis resulted in 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1% 42%) and 69% (95% CI = 61%, 76%) decreases, respectively, in Rh sensitizations (D and non-D) in Manitoba between 1963 and 1988. Rh prophylaxis and nonprogram factors were responsible for 83% (95% CI = 44%, 95%) and 78% (95% CI = 42%, 91%), respectively, of the reduction in perinatal deaths from Rh disease. Similar results were obtained with conditional probability modeling, which also provided estimates for the effects of changes in abortion rates and racial composition. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to Rh prophylaxis, changes in other determinants were responsible for an important fraction of the decline in Rh disease. These results provide a historical perspective on the conquest of Rh disease and also have important implications for public health policy, particularly in developing countries.
OBJECTIVE: To identify spatial patterns of changes in infant mortality rates and proportions of low-birth-weight live births observed in 1994. SETTING: Canada. SUBJECTS: Live births and infant deaths in Canada between 1987 and 1994. Data for Newfoundland were unavailable for 1987 through 1990. OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual infant mortality rates (crude and after excluding live newborns weighing less than 500 g); proportion of live births by low-birth-weight category (500-2499 g). RESULTS: Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec and Manitoba had lower crude and adjusted infant mortality rates in 1994 than in 1993. Newfoundland, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia had higher rates in 1994 than in 1993. The crude rate in Ontario was lower, and the adjusted rate higher, in 1994 than in 1993. A downward trend in the proportion of low-birth-weight live births was observed in Quebec (chi(2) for trend = 29.2, p < 0.01). Conversely, an upward trend was observed in Ontario (chi(2) for trend = 241.3, p < 0.01). However, the increase may have been due to data errors, especially in 1993 and 1994, involving truncation of ounces in 2 digits to 1 digit (e.g., 5 pounds 10 ounces became 5 pounds 1 ounce). CONCLUSIONS: Although the marginal increases in infant mortality observed in several provinces could be the result of random variation, future trends should be closely monitored. The proportion of low-birth-weight live births in Canada (excluding Ontario) appears to be stable, with Quebec showing significant reductions. The errors in data for Ontario need to be corrected before trends can be estimated for that province and for Canada as a whole.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Evidence in the medical literature suggests that patients with asthma who use antipsychotics or sedatives are at increased risk for serious complications of asthma. A number of mechanisms are potentially responsible for this observed association. The principle noncausal reasons for the increased risk of complications in this patient population include patient characteristics (such as the indication for antipsychotic use, noncompliance with asthma therapy, risk taking behaviour and family dysfunction) and treatment issues (including differential prescribing and the quality of medical care). The main causal mechanism involves depression of the CNS and impaired respiratory drive due to sedation during acute asthma attacks. Although it appears that most of the excess risk is a consequence of the noncausal mechanisms mentioned, physicians treating patients with asthma who have a history of antipsychotic use need to recognise the challenges inherent in managing such patients. Further research into the increased risk associated with sedative use is also warranted.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
OBJECTIVE: To ascertain whether the increase in the crude infant mortality rate in Canada in 1993 was due to a recent increase in the registration of newborns weighing less than 500 g as live births. DESIGN: Ecological study, with Poisson regression analysis. SETTING: Canada. SUBJECTS: All live births and infant deaths in Canada between 1987 and 1993, as reported by Statistics Canada. Data from Newfoundland were excluded because they were incomplete for 4 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of live births by low-birth-weight category; and annual crude and adjusted infant mortality rates. RESULTS: Over the study period the proportion of newborns weighing less than 500 g registered as live births increased significantly (chi 2 for trend = 71.26, p < 0.01). This trend was an isolated phenomenon rather than a general increase in all low-birth-weight categories (chi 2 for trend in the proportion of newborns weighing 500 to 2400 g registered as live births = 1.14, p = 0.28). The crude infant mortality rate per 1000 live births decreased from 6.4 in 1991 to 6.1 in 1992 and then increased to 6.3 in 1993. Poisson regression analysis revealed that the apparent increase in the infant mortality rate was caused by the increased registration of infants weighing less than 500 g as live births. The adjusted infant mortality estimate for 1993 was lower than that for 1992. CONCLUSIONS: The increased infant mortality rate in Canada in 1993 appears to be due to increased registration of infants weighing less than 500 g as live births. Comparisons of infant mortality rates by place and time should be adjusted for the proportion of such live births, especially if the comparisons involve recent years.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the potentially increased risk of death or near death from asthma in asthmatic patients with psychosis. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: The computerised health databases of the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. SUBJECTS: 131 cases of death or near death from asthma identified within a cohort of asthmatic patients; 3930 matched non-cases. EXPOSURE AND OUTCOME MEASURES: The exposure of interest was the use of major tranquillisers in the period before an outcome event. Outcomes included death or near death from asthma. RESULTS: Crude analyses showed that asthmatic patients who had used major tranquillisers in the previous 12 months were at a 3.2 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 7.5) times greater risk of death or near death from asthma than asthmatic patients who did not use major tranquillisers. Past users of major tranquillisers who had recently discontinued use were at a particularly high risk (relative risk 6.6; 2.5 to 17.6). Adjustment for use of antiasthma drugs and other confounders abolished this excess risk. CONCLUSIONS: Asthmatic patients who use major tranquillisers seem to be at an increased risk of death or near death from asthma. Physicians treating asthmatic patients with a history of use of major tranquillisers should exercise greater caution with regard to management of such patients.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Evidence from contemporary studies suggests that the quantification of adverse drug effects through state-of-the-art non-experimental methods may be confounded by some aspects of clinical practice. Support for this hypothesis is manifest in the finding that drug effects sometimes show within-study time trends when clinical practice with regard to drug use is evolving. Three studies which show simultaneous trends in prescription frequency and drug effects are discussed as examples. These include a study of benzodiazepines in the etiology of hip fracture, postmenopausal estrogens as a preventive for major coronary disease and human insulin as a risk factor for severe hypoglycemia. For instance, during a period when clinical perceptions regarding the safety of benzodiazepine use in the elderly underwent gradual change, the relative risk for hip fracture among long half-life benzodiazepine users declined progressively from 2.0 (95% CI, 1.6-2.5) in 1977-79 to 1.3 (95% CI, 0.9-1.8) in 1984-85. The implications of these observations are set against the scientific objectives which guide etiologic research.