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K S Crump

Publications and source records attributed to K S Crump.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1979

Dose response problems in carcinogenesis.

The estimation of risks from exposure to carcinogens is an important problem from the viewpoint of protection of human health. It also poses some very difficult dose-response problems. Two dose-response models may fit experimental data about equally well and yet predict responses that differ by many orders of magnitude at low doses. Mechanisms of carcinogenesis are not sufficiently understood so that the shape of the dose-response curve at low doses can be satisfactorily predicted. Mathematical theories of carcinogenesis and statistical procedures can be of use with dose-reponse problems such as this and, in addition, can lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms of carcinogenesis. In this paper, mathematical dose-response models of carcinogenesis are considered as well as various proposed dose-response procedures for estimating carcinogenic risks at low doses. Areas are suggested in which further work may be useful. These areas include experimental design problems, statistical procedures for use with time-to-occurrence data, and mathematical models that incorporate such biological features as pharmacokinetics of carcinogens, synergistic effects, DNA repair, susceptible subpopulations, and immune reactions.

Animals↗
PubMed1977

Confidence intervals and test of hypotheses concerning dose response relations inferred from animal carcinogenicity data.

Confidence intervals and hypothesis tests are developed for dose-response relations based on dichotomous data from animal carcinogenicity experiments. The functional form of the dose-response curve comes from the Armitage-Doll multistage carcinogenesis model and involves a polynomial in the dose-rate, with non-negative coefficients. Asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators of these coefficients are used to construct confidence bounds on risk at a given dose and on the dose corresponding to a given risk. Likelihood ratio tests are developed for the presence of a positive dose-related effect and for the existence of a positive slope to the dose-response curve at zero dose. The latter test is of practical importance since a positive slope of the dose-response curve at zero dose rules out any "threshold-like" behavior and would often mean that any concentration low enough to insure a negligibly low cancer risk (e.g., 10(-6)) would be too low to be economically useful for applications such as food additives. Simulation experiments are performed to provide guidelines for applying the theory.

Animals↗
PubMed1976

Fundamental carcinogenic processes and their implications for low dose risk assessment.

Various possible models of carcinogenesis are analyzed with respect to low dose kinetics. The importance of background carcinogenesis upon the shape of the dose-response curve at low dose is emphasized. It is shown that, if carcinogenesis by an external agent acts additively with any already ongoing process, then under almost any model the response will be linear at low dose. Measures of the degree of linearity are obtained for multistage models of carcinogenesis, where it is shown that throughout the dose range where the extra risk is less than the spontaneous risk linear extrapolation must be quite accurate.

Carcinogens, Environmental↗