Cigarette smoking, lung cancer and CME - a clarification.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to J R Goldsmith.
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Conventional regression analysis is based on assumptions of bidirectional associations between pairs of independent variables. In a number of circumstances these assumptions are not plausible. Structural representation in conventional regression is based on a set of parallel paths between independent and dependent variables; when the implausible assumptions are excluded, a different structrual relation between the independent and dependent variables is found. It permits a series associative path between independent variables. Two criteria for modification of conventional multivariate analysis are presented. They are when bilateral symmetry among independent variables is implausible on the basis of a priori information, and when there are significant differences between zero order and first order partial correlation coefficients. When these criteria are applied, there may result a series-parallel matrix of associations. For analysis of such a matrix, the procedures of path analysis are appropriate. The concepts are illustrated with environmental examples, and path analytical computations are worked out for a set of data on social and environmental factors which affected infant mortality in England and Wales between 1928-1938.
From the Third National Cancer Survey (TNCS) Interview Study of 7,518 incident cases, lifetime histories of occupations and industries were studied for associations with specific cancer sites and types while controlling for age, sex, race, education, use of cigarettes or alcohol, and geographic location. Lung cancer patients were found more often than expected among several categories including trucking, air transportation, wholesaling, painting, building construction, building maintenance, and manufacturing (furniture, transportation equipment, and food products). Controlling for cigarette smoking did not change these associations. Leukemia and multiple myeloma were associated with sales personnel of both sexes, whereas lymphomas and Hodgkin's disease were excessive among women working in the medical industry. Other associations included rectal cancer with several retail industries; prostate cancer with ministers, farmers, plumbers, and coal miners; malignant melanoma with school teachers; and invasive cervical cancer with women working in hotels and restaurants. Breast cancer patients were more common among women who were teachers or other professionals and who worked in business and finance (even after controlling for education). Many other findings are presented in detailed tables. Results are reported mainly as a research resource for use by other investigators doing work in this field. Suggestions are given for future studies.
Data are available on a 1% sample of social security covered employees by industry, age, sex and race for years 1960 and 1965 and their mortality through 1972. Previous papers have reported on overall rates by age, sex and race and on industries in which mortality appears to be increased among younger workers. In this paper mortality ratios, compared to the expected overall race-sex-age specific rates for this population, are shown for the Standard Industrial Classification two-digit-industry classes for the 1960 and the 1965 cohorts. Among women employed in four industries involving chemical exposures, an abrupt increase in mortality occurred around 1965. Possible reasons for this are discussed. The epidemiologic usefulness of social security mortality data for occupational and preventive purposes and for surveillance is emphasized.
Geographical pathology points to environmental factors in cancer and helps estimate their potential magnitude. An occupational contribution was established by 1972 for cancer of the mouth, lung, bladder, and skin. Additionally partly based on geographical pathology, an occupational etiology is accepted for some cancer of nasopharynx, brain, liver, pleura, nasal sinus, bone and bone marrow, and possibly stomach. For identifying new occupational factors based on geographical comparisons, both an optimal size of work force to be followed-up and a sufficiently high proportion of work force in the geographical unit's population are necessary. Hypothetical variations based on 30-year follow-up of asbestos workers illustrate this. Cancer surveys and registries can greatly facilitate detection of occupational cancer. Evidence for occupational factors in the geographical pathology of lymphosarcoma is briefly summarized; but no conclusions are reached.
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Goldsmith and Hirschberg have published a preliminary report on mortality among a sample of social security recipients employed in 1965 and whose mortality experience was available through 1972. Among white males, but not among blacks or white females, mortality was higher among those age 16-20 in 1965 than among those 21-25. Among the industrial populations tabulated, young workers showed in a few cases significantly elevated standard mortality ratios, even when overall mortality was not increased. Accordingly, we have examined mortality for 1960-72 for those employed in 1960 for all the industrial groups (two digit SIC codes) to look for industries in which young workers have high mortality. Only those industries have been considered in which observed deaths at ages 11-30 (in 1960) exceed 10 and population at risk exceeds 200. Young workers appear to have significantly elevated mortality in: agricultural production (white males), metal mining (white males), real estate (white males), military and reserves (white males), miscellaneous business services (white females), and eating and drinking establishments (white females). For such industries, preventive measures should be considered.
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Several epidemiological studies in California have yielded data on percentage methaemoglobin in healthy individuals. The population groups represented include infants, elementary and high school children, and adults. The distributions of values in each group are described, as well as the differences between groups. Factors affecting the distributions are discussed. In the study of infants, the factors assessed include respiratory and gastrointestinal disease, and food and water intake. In schoolchildren, the effect of age and location of residence within Southern California are evaluated, and in adults, smoking, gender and time of day. Among infants in the 31 to 60 day age range, 33 per cent had methaemoglobin levels of 3 per cent or above, while 8 per cent had methaemoglobin levels of 4 per cent or above. Among adults, 15 per cent had levels of 3 per cent or above, while 2 per cent had levels of 4 per cent or above. Among both elementary and high school students, 3 per cent had methaemoglobin levels of 3 per cent or above, while less than 1 per cent had levels of 4 per cent or greater.