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Biomedical subjects

J P Ioannidis

Publications and source records attributed to J P Ioannidis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

The importance of independent risk-factors for long-term mortality prediction after cardiac surgery.

The purpose of the present study was to determine independent predictors for long-term mortality after cardiac surgery. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was developed to score in-hospital mortality and recent studies have shown its ability to predict long-term mortality as well. We compared forecasts based on EuroSCORE with other models based on independent predictors. Medical records of patients with cardiac surgery who were discharged alive (n = 4852) were retrospectively reviewed. Their operative surgical risks were calculated according to EuroSCORE. Patients were randomly divided into two groups: training dataset (n = 3233) and validation dataset (n = 1619). Long-term survival data (mean follow-up 5.1 years) were obtained from the National Death Index. We compared four models: standard EuroSCORE (M1); logistic EuroSCORE (M2); M2 and other preoperative, intra-operative and post-operative selected variables (M3); and selected variables only (M4). M3 and M4 were determined with multivariable Cox regression analysis using the training dataset. The estimated five-year survival rates of the quartiles in compared models in the validation dataset were: 94.5%, 87.8%, 77.1%, 64.9% for M1; 95.1%, 88.0%, 80.5%, 64.4% for M2; 93.4%, 89.4%, 80.8%, 64.1% for M3; and 95.8%, 90.9%, 81.0%, 59.9% for M4. In the four models, the odds of death in the highest-risk quartile was 8.4-, 8.5-, 9.4- and 15.6-fold higher, respectively, than the odds of death in the lowest-risk quartile (P < 0.0001 for all). EuroSCORE is a good predictor of long-term mortality after cardiac surgery. We developed and validated a model using selected preoperative, intra-operative and post-operative variables that has better discriminatory ability.

Cardiac Surgical Procedures↗
PubMed2001

Effects of CCR5-Delta32, CCR2-64I, and SDF-1 3'A alleles on HIV-1 disease progression: An international meta-analysis of individual-patient data.

BACKGROUND: Studies relating certain chemokine and chemokine receptor gene alleles with the outcome of HIV-1 infection have yielded inconsistent results. OBJECTIVE: To examine postulated associations of genetic alleles with HIV-1 disease progression. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of individual-patient data. SETTING: 19 prospective cohort studies and case-control studies from the United States, Europe, and Australia. PATIENTS: Patients with HIV-1 infection who were of European or African descent. MEASUREMENTS: Time to AIDS, death, and death after AIDS and HIV-1 RNA level at study entry or soon after seroconversion. Data were combined with fixed-effects and random-effects models. RESULTS: Both the CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I alleles were associated with a decreased risk for progression to AIDS (relative hazard among seroconverters, 0.74 and 0.76, respectively; P = 0.01 for both), a decreased risk for death (relative hazard among seroconverters, 0.64 and 0.74; P < 0.05 for both), and lower HIV-1 RNA levels after seroconversion (difference, -0.18 log(10) copies/mL and -0.14 log(10) copies/mL; P < 0.05 for both). Having the CCR5-Delta32 or CCR2-64I allele had no clear protective effect on the risk for death after development of AIDS. The results were consistent between seroconverters and seroprevalent patients. In contrast, SDF-1 3'A homozygotes showed no decreased risk for AIDS (relative hazard for seroconverters and seroprevalent patients, 0.99 and 1.03, respectively), death (relative hazard, 0.97 and 1.00), or death after development of AIDS (relative hazard, 0.81 and 0.97; P > 0.5 for all). CONCLUSIONS: The CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I alleles had a strong protective effect on progression of HIV-1 infection, but SDF-1 3'A homozygosity carried no such protection.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2001

Effect of early patient enrollment on the time to completion and publication of randomized controlled trials.

The authors evaluated whether early enrollment affects the significance of the results and the time to completion and publication of randomized controlled trials. Seventy-seven efficacy randomized controlled trials (total enrollment, 28,992 patients) initiated by the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Clinical Trials Group between 1986 and 1996 were evaluated. After adjustment for target sample size, for each 10-fold increase in the first-month accrual, the odds of a trial reaching statistically significant results increased 2.8-fold (p = 0.040). The relative enrollment during the first month over target sample size (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.40 per 10 percent increase, p = 0.004) and masking (HR = 1.78 for double-blind vs. single or unblinded studies, p = 0.031) were the major predictors of faster completion. Rapid early accrual (HR = 1.09 per 10 additional patients accrued the first month, p = 0.011) and statistical significance in favor of an experimental arm (HR = 2.47, p = 0.004) independently predicted faster publication. Early enrollment is a strong predictor of whether a study will reach formal statistical significance, and it can offer predictive information on the time needed to complete the study and publish its findings. Ongoing unpublished studies and their enrollment rates may need to be considered when interpreting the accumulated evidence.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2001

Discontinuation of Pneumocystis carinii prophylaxis in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus: a meta-analysis and decision analysis.

We performed a meta-analysis and a decision analysis on the discontinuation of prophylaxis for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus who had adequate immune recovery while receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy. In the meta-analysis (14 studies with 3584 subjects who had discontinued prophylaxis), 8 cases of PCP occurred during 3449 person-years (0.23 cases per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval, 0.10-0.46]). In the decision analysis, mortality and time spent alive without immunodeficiency in the modeled discontinuation strategy were similar to those in the continuation strategy. For patients who received primary prophylaxis, the discontinuation strategy led to slightly fewer episodes of PCP and fewer toxicity-related prophylaxis withdrawals (e.g., 8.6 vs. 34.5 cases per 100 patients during a 10-year period). Patients on the discontinuation strategy were more likely to be receiving trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole when they became immunodeficient. Comparative results were similar for patients with prior PCP. Discontinuation of PCP prophylaxis in patients with adequate immune recovery is a useful strategy that should be widely considered.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗
PubMed2001

Comparison of evidence of treatment effects in randomized and nonrandomized studies.

CONTEXT: There is substantial debate about whether the results of nonrandomized studies are consistent with the results of randomized controlled trials on the same topic. OBJECTIVES: To compare results of randomized and nonrandomized studies that evaluated medical interventions and to examine characteristics that may explain discrepancies between randomized and nonrandomized studies. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1966-March 2000), the Cochrane Library (Issue 3, 2000), and major journals were searched. STUDY SELECTION: Forty-five diverse topics were identified for which both randomized trials (n = 240) and nonrandomized studies (n = 168) had been performed and had been considered in meta-analyses of binary outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION: Data on events per patient in each study arm and design and characteristics of each study considered in each meta-analysis were extracted and synthesized separately for randomized and nonrandomized studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Very good correlation was observed between the summary odds ratios of randomized and nonrandomized studies (r = 0.75; P<.001); however, nonrandomized studies tended to show larger treatment effects (28 vs 11; P =.009). Between-study heterogeneity was frequent among randomized trials alone (23%) and very frequent among nonrandomized studies alone (41%). The summary results of the 2 types of designs differed beyond chance in 7 cases (16%). Discrepancies beyond chance were less common when only prospective studies were considered (8%). Occasional differences in sample size and timing of publication were also noted between discrepant randomized and nonrandomized studies. In 28 cases (62%), the natural logarithm of the odds ratio differed by at least 50%, and in 15 cases (33%), the odds ratio varied at least 2-fold between nonrandomized studies and randomized trials. CONCLUSIONS: Despite good correlation between randomized trials and nonrandomized studies-in particular, prospective studies-discrepancies beyond chance do occur and differences in estimated magnitude of treatment effect are very common.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗
PubMed2001

Appendicectomies in Albanians in Greece: outcomes in a highly mobile immigrant patient population.

BACKGROUND: Albanian immigrants in Greece comprise a highly mobile population with unknown health care profile. We aimed to assess whether these immigrants were more or less likely to undergo laparotomy for suspected appendicitis with negative findings (negative appendicectomy), by performing a controlled study with individual (1:4) matching. We used data from 6 hospitals in the Greek prefecture of Epirus that is bordering Albania. RESULTS: Among a total of 2027 non-incidental appendicectomies for suspected appendicitis performed in 1994-1999, 30 patients with Albanian names were matched (for age, sex, time of operation and hospital) to 120 patients with Greek names. The odds for a negative appendicectomy were 3.4-fold higher (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-9.31, p = 0.02) in Albanian immigrants than in matched Greek-name subjects. The difference was most prominent in men (odds ratio 20.0, 95% CI, 1.41-285, p = 0.02) while it was not formally significant in women (odds ratio 1.56, 95% CI, 0.44-5.48). The odds for perforation were 1.25-fold higher in Albanian-name immigrants than in Greek-name patients (95% CI 0.44- 3.57). CONCLUSIONS: Albanian immigrants in Greece are at high risk for negative appendicectomies. Socioeconomic, cultural and language parameters underlying health care inequalities in highly mobile immigrant populations need better study.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Determinants of patient recruitment in a multicenter clinical trials group: trends, seasonality and the effect of large studies.

BACKGROUND: We examined whether quarterly patient enrollment in a large multicenter clinical trials group could be modeled in terms of predictors including time parameters (such as long-term trends and seasonality), the effect of large trials and the number of new studies launched each quarter. We used the database of all clinical studies launched by the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) between October 1986 and November 1999. Analyses were performed in two datasets: one included all studies and substudies (n = 475, total enrollment 69,992 patients) and the other included only main studies (n = 352, total enrollment 57,563 patients). RESULTS: Enrollment differed across different months of the year with peaks in spring and late fall. Enrollment accelerated over time (+27 patients per quarter for all studies and +16 patients per quarter for the main studies, p < 0.001) and was affected by the performance of large studies with target sample size > 1,000 (p < 0.001). These relationships remained significant in multivariate autoregressive modeling. A time series based on enrollment during the first 32 quarters could forecast adequately the remaining 21 quarters. CONCLUSIONS: The fate and popularity of large trials may determine the overall recruitment of multicenter groups. Modeling of enrollment rates may be used to comprehend long-term patterns and to perform future strategic planning.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗
PubMed2001

Pathways for inappropriate dispensing of antibiotics for rhinosinusitis: a randomized trial.

We evaluated the extent of and factors that determine the inappropriate use of antibiotics that are obtained without a physician's prescription. Ninety-eight Greek pharmacists were visited by actress-researchers who played clients requesting antibiotics without a physician's prescription. Pharmacists were randomly challenged in a scenario that involved simulated cases of acute uncomplicated rhinosinusitis with either low fever (38.5 degrees C) or high fever (40 degrees C). Antibiotics were offered by 34 (69%) of 49 pharmacists who were presented with the high-fever scenario and by 42 (86%) of 49 pharmacists who were presented with the low-fever scenario (risk difference, 16.3%; P = .05). Thirty-two (65%) and 35 (71%) pharmacists in the high- and low-fever study arms, respectively, agreed to sell the actress-researchers broad-spectrum antibiotics. Only 28 (57%) and 17 (35%) pharmacists, respectively, recommended that the patient visit a physician (P = .03). Inappropriate recommendations regarding antibiotic use were very common in the studied setting. Antibiotics were more likely to be offered to persons who did not have a prescription when they were less likely to be clinically indicated.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗
PubMed2001

Reporting of conflicts of interest in guidelines of preventive and therapeutic interventions.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines published in major medical journals are very influential in determining clinical practice. It would be essential to evaluate whether conflicts of interests are disclosed in these publications. We evaluated the reporting of conflicts of interest and the factors that may affect such disclosure in a sample of 191 guidelines on therapeutic and/or preventive measures published in 6 major clinical journals (Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, JAMA, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, Pediatrics) in 1979, 1984, 1989, 1994 and 1999. RESULTS: Only 7 guidelines (3.7%) mentioned conflicts of interest and all were published in 1999 (17.5% (7/40) of guidelines published in 1999 alone). Reporting of conflicts of interest differed significantly by journal (p=0.026), availability of disclosure policy by the journal (p=0.043), source of funding (p < 0.001) and number of authors (p=0.004). In the entire database of 191 guidelines, a mere 18 authors disclosed a total of 24 potential conflicts of interest and most pertained to minor issues. CONCLUSIONS: Despite some recent improvement, reporting of conflicts of interest in clinical guidelines published in influential journals is largely neglected.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗
PubMed2001

Perinatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 by pregnant women with RNA virus loads <1000 copies/ml.

In a collaboration of 7 European and United States prospective studies, 44 cases of vertical human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission were identified among 1202 women with RNA virus loads <1000 copies/mL at delivery or at the measurement closest to delivery. For mothers receiving antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy or at the time of delivery (or both), there was a 1.0% transmission rate (8 of 834; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4%-1.9%), compared with 9.8% (36 of 368; 95% CI, 7.0%-13.4%) for untreated mothers (risk ratio, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.05-0.21). In multivariate analysis adjusting for study, transmission was lower with antiretroviral treatment (odds ratio [OR], 0.10; P<.001), cesarean section (OR, 0.30; P=.022), greater birth weight (P=.003), and higher CD4 cell count (P=.039). In 12 of 44 cases, multiple RNA measurements were obtained during pregnancy or at the time of delivery or within 4 months after giving birth; in 10 of the 12 cases, the geometric mean virus load was >500 copies/mL. Perinatal HIV-1 transmission occurs in only 1% of treated women with RNA virus loads <1000 copies/mL and may be almost eliminated with antiretroviral prophylaxis accompanied by suppression of maternal viremia.

Anti-HIV Agents↗
PubMed2001

Comparison of myocardial fractional flow reserve and intravascular ultrasound for the assessment of slotted-tube stents.

Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and myocardial fractional flow reserve (FFR) have been reported to provide similar results for assessment of coil stent deployment. Their relative value in slotted-tube stents has not been investigated. Fourteen patients subjected to coronary angioplasty and IVUS-guided elective stenting with a slotted-tube stent underwent IVUS assessment and FFR measurement following stent implantation at inflation pressures of 12 and 18 atm. FFR values (mean +/- SD) preangioplasty, postangioplasty, and poststenting at 12 atm and 18 atm, were 0.58 +/- 0.07, 0.83 +/- 0.05, 0.94 +/- 0.02, and 0.94 +/- 0.02, respectively. After inflation at 12 atm, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the concordance of IVUS and FFR measurements was 0.89 (P = 0.02). Six patients had either an abnormal IVUS (n = 2) or FFR < 0.94 (n = 1) or both abnormal IVUS and FFR < 0.94 (n = 3) after the first inflation and had a second inflation at 18 atm. The area under the ROC curve for the concordance between IVUS and FFR final measurements was 0.855 (P = 0.10). Perfect concordance between IVUS and FFR was seen only for FFR values less than 0.91 or larger than 0.94. Overall, IVUS and FFR have substantial concordance with respect to slotted-tube stent deployment. However, FFR values between 0.91 and 0.94 after inflation are difficult to interpret.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

The Sp1 COLIA1 gene polymorphism, and not vitamin D receptor or estrogen receptor gene polymorphisms, determines bone mineral density in postmenopausal Greek women.

Several genetic polymorphisms are implicated as determinants of bone mineral density (BMD) in postmenopausal women. These include the Sp1 polymorphism of the collagen type I alpha 1 (COLIA1) gene, the FokI and BsmI polymorphisms of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene, and the PvuII and XbaI polymorphisms of the estrogen receptor (ER) gene. The relative importance and the independence of these genetic effects have not been studied simultaneously in the same population. We evaluated the effects of these polymorphisms on lumbar spine BMD among 154 postmenopausal Greek women. BMD tended to differ across Sp1 genotypes (mean 0.842 g/cm2 in SS, 0.851 g/cm2 in Ss, 0.763 in ss, age-adjusted p = 0.056), mostly because ss homozygotes had lower BMD (p = 0.018 compared with SS and Ss). No other polymorphisms were associated with BMD in this population (p = 0.53 for FokI, p = 0.94 for BsmI, p = 0.80 for PvuII, p = 0.91 for XbaI). In multivariate modeling, the effect of ss homozygosity was clinically and statistically significant (-0.105 g/cm2, p = 0.013) after adjusting for age, weight, height, hormone replacement use, and the other four polymorphisms. None of the other four polymorphisms was retained as an independent predictor of BMD in a backward elimination model and no significant synergistic effects were observed when gene interactions were tested. When all five polymorphisms are considered simultaneously, the Sp1 COLIA1 polymorphism seems to have the most unequivocal effect on BMD, at least in postmenopausal women.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

Early mortality and morbidity of bilateral versus single internal thoracic artery revascularization: propensity and risk modeling.

OBJECTIVES: We examined whether bilateral internal thoracic artery (BITA) revascularization is associated with any increased in-hospital mortality and complications compared with single internal thoracic artery (SITA) revascularization. BACKGROUND: Despite proven long-term benefits, BITA revascularization has been slow to be adopted because of fear of increased early morbidity. METHODS: We evaluated 1,697 consecutive patients undergoing BITA (n = 867) or SITA (n = 830) revascularization. We used propensity score analyses and adjusted risk models to address differences between arms. RESULTS: There were 20 (2.3%) deaths in the BITA group versus 26 (3.1%) in the SITA group (odds ratio 0.73, p = 0.30). Propensity analysis identified several parameters that affected the decision to use BITA. Adjusting for propensity score and all potential risk factors, the odds ratio for death with BITA versus SITA was practically 1. Bilateral internal thoracic artery revascularization did not increase the number of in-hospital complications with the possible exception of deep sternal wound infections (11 [1.3%] vs. 3 [0.4%], p = 0.057). In multivariate modeling BITA increased the risk of deep sternal wound infections only in emergent cases and in older patients; the excess risk was negligible among 1,206 patients (71.1% of total) who did not have emergent revascularization and were < or =70 years old (risk difference 0.3%, p = 0.74). There was no difference in length of stay after adjustment for propensity factors (mean 11.3 vs. 11.7 days, p = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS: Bilateral internal thoracic artery revascularization grafting confers no increased risk for early death and does not prolong hospital stay. The small increase in the risk of deep sternal wound infections does not affect the majority of patients.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

Predictive modeling and heterogeneity of baseline risk in meta-analysis of individual patient data.

We developed and evaluated methods for the analysis and interpretation of the baseline risk heterogeneity in meta-analysis of individual patient data (MIPD) based on information on predictive factors. We used data from a typical MIPD of eight clinical trials (1792 patients, 2947 years of follow-up) on the efficacy of high-dose acyclovir in human immunodeficiency virus infection. Cox models with four predictive factors (age, disease state, CD4 cell count and hemoglobin levels) were used to estimate predicted individual hazards both for single trials and for various MIPD modeling methods (simple pooling, adjusted for study, stratified per study, fixed and random effects for predictors). For each study and for each method of MIPD synthesis, we estimated the odds ratio for death in the upper versus the lower quartile of predicted risk (Extreme Quartile Odds Ratio, EQuOR) and the respective rate ratio (Extreme Quartile Rate Ratio, EQuRR). Only the CD4 cell count showed a significantly heterogeneous predictive effect across the eight studies (P =.024). The EQuOR of single studies ranged from 3.5 (little heterogeneity) to 24 (intermediate heterogeneity), substantially lower than the EQuOR of the MIPD (167 to 275, depending on the model used). The EQuRR values ranged from 3.5 to 77 for single studies and from 77 to 116 for the various MIPD models. Predictive modeling can be a major strength of MIPD, when performed and interpreted with standardized approaches. All models consistently show that MIPD may be a study design with extreme heterogeneity of patient baseline risk.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2001

Patterns of patient enrollment in randomized controlled trials.

We aimed to describe enrollment patterns in a large cohort of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and evaluate whether early recruitment predicts the ability of RCTs to reach their target enrollment. We considered all 77 efficacy RCTs initiated by the AIDS Clinical Trials Group between 1986 and 1996 (28,992 patients enrolled until November 1999). Thirteen RCTs (17%) failed to reach half their target recruitment. Enrollment trajectories showed that the initial rate of accrual determined the subsequent rates of enrollment. The target sample size was attained by 7/8, 11/14, 15/35 and 4/20 of trials with very rapid, rapid, moderate and slow enrollment during the first 3 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Enrollment during the first month or two strongly correlated with subsequent accrual (P < 0.001). The patient pool, the eligibility criteria, the attractiveness of a trial and adequacy of the network of clinical sites may influence RCT enrollment. Early enrollment offers strong evidence on the feasibility of a trial and is indicative of its future pace of recruitment.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗