Expert systems, clinical data analyses, and knowledge discovery: the POSCH AI project.
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Algorithms↗
Biomedical subjects
J M Long
Publications and source records attributed to J M Long.
Complex maze performance in young and aged rats: response to glucose treatment and relationship to blood insulin and glucose.
In aged rats and humans, impaired glucose regulation has been correlated with poor memory performance, and glucose treatment can result in improved performance. We tested this glucose hypothesis with rats in a 14-unit T-maze that has provided robust evidence of age-related performance decline. Aged (24-25 month) and young (6-7 month) male F-344 rats were pretrained for one-way active avoidance before receiving complex maze training (4 daily trials over 5 days) with the contingency of moving through each of 5 segments to avoid footshock. Ten min before daily training, aged rats received either saline or glucose in doses of 10, 100, or 500 mg/kg IP, while young rats received saline. Significant (ps less than 0.05) age-related increases in errors, runtime, and shock duration were observed. Glucose treatment had no significant effect on the number of maze errors committed; however, performance variables such as runtime and shock duration appeared to be reduced in rats receiving glucose. About 4-6 weeks later, a sample of these rats was fasted overnight, injected IP with glucose (150 mg/kg), and bled at various postinjection intervals to obtain estimates of blood glucose and insulin levels. Significant correlations (ps less than 0.05) were observed between maze errors and baseline glucose levels, r(21) = -.62, and peak glucose response, r(19) = .49. However; within the aged group, significant correlations (ps less than 0.01) with maze errors emerged only for baseline glucose, r(13) = -.69, and peak insulin response, r(13) = -.65. Thus, regulation of insulin, but not glucose, appeared related to learning abilities among aged rats.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Aging↗
Women in the POSCH trial. Effects of aggressive cholesterol modification in women with coronary heart disease. The POSCH Group. Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias.
The Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias (POSCH) provided the clearest and the most convincing evidence supporting the beneficial effects of cholesterol lowering in hypercholesterolemic survivors of a myocardial infarction. In POSCH, 78 of the 838 patients (9.3%) were women, with 32 randomized to the diet-control group and 46 to the diet plus partial ileal bypass surgery-intervention group. At 5 years, the mean per cent change from baseline was -23.9% for total plasma cholesterol (p < 0.0001), -36.1% for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p < 0.0001), and +8.5% for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p = not significant). Because of the small number of women, no statistically significant changes in clinical event rates were observed between the control and the surgery groups. A comparison of 162 coronary arteriography film pairs in the POSCH women, between baseline and 3, 5, 7, and 10 years, consistently showed less disease progression in the surgery group (p = 0.013 for combined assessments of the baseline to the longest follow-up film). Because the lipid and coronary arteriography findings in the POSCH women paralleled these findings in the total POSCH population and in the POSCH men, and because the arteriography changes in POSCH have previously been demonstrated to be statistically significant surrogate end points for certain clinical events and predictors of overall and atherosclerotic coronary heart disease mortality rates, we conclude that the lipid modification achieved in the POSCH women by partial ileal bypass reduced their atherosclerosis progression. The POSCH findings in women support the aggressive treatment of hyperlipidemia in the general management of atherosclerosis in women.
Coronary Angiography↗
Effect of prenatal cocaine on respiration, heart rate, and sudden infant death syndrome.
We studied 114 neonates by pneumocardiogram recordings in order to examine the effects of cocaine with and without opiate exposure on neonatal respiration, heart rate, apparent life threatening events (ALTE), and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). In full-term infants exposed to cocaine without opiates we found increased longest apnea duration and more episodes of bradycardia, but decreased periodic breathing and average heart rate than in control full-term infants. Term infants prenatally exposed to cocaine with opiates also had less periodic breathing. Preterm infants exposed to cocaine with and without opiates had decreased apnea density and periodic breathing compared with preterm controls. Discriminant analysis to determine whether perinatal asphyxia or exposure to other drugs could predict cardiorespiratory abnormalities showed no consistent relationship. In 72 of 114 infants available for follow-up, no ALTE occurred but two were lost to SIDS. Our data support the hypothesis that prenatal cocaine exposure may perturb, albeit subtly, the maturation of respiratory control, resulting in disruption of postnatal respiration.
Apnea↗
Effect of partial ileal bypass surgery on mortality and morbidity from coronary heart disease in patients with hypercholesterolemia. Report of the Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias (POSCH)
BACKGROUND AND METHODS: The Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias (POSCH), a randomized clinical trial, was designed to test whether cholesterol lowering induced by the partial ileal bypass operation would favorably affect overall mortality or mortality due to coronary heart disease. The study population consisted of 838 patients (417 in the control group and 421 in the surgery group), both men (90.7 percent) and women, with an average age of 51 years, who had survived a first myocardial infarction. The mean follow-up period was 9.7 years. RESULTS: When compared with the control group at five years, the surgery group had a total plasma cholesterol level 23.3 percent lower (4.71 +/- 0.91 vs. 6.14 +/- 0.89 mmol per liter [mean +/- SD]; P less than 0.0001), a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level 37.7 percent lower (2.68 +/- 0.78 vs. 4.30 +/- 0.89 mmol per liter; P less than 0.0001), and a high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level 4.3 percent higher (1.08 +/- 0.26 vs. 1.04 +/- 0.25 mmol per liter; P = 0.02). Overall mortality and mortality due to coronary heart disease were reduced, but not significantly so (deaths overall [control vs. surgery], 62 vs. 49, P = 0.164; deaths due to coronary disease, 44 vs. 32, P = 0.113). The overall mortality in the surgery subgroup with an ejection fraction greater than or equal to 50 percent was 36 percent lower (control vs. surgery, 39 vs. 24; P = 0.021). The value for two end points combined--death due to coronary heart disease and confirmed nonfatal myocardial infarction--was 35 percent lower in the surgery group (125 vs. 82 events; P less than 0.001). During follow-up, 137 control-group and 52 surgery-group patients underwent coronary-artery bypass grafting (P less than 0.0001). A comparison of base-line coronary arteriograms with those obtained at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years consistently showed less disease progression in the surgery group (P less than 0.001). The most common side effect of partial ileal bypass was diarrhea; others included occasional kidney stones, gallstones, and intestinal obstruction. CONCLUSIONS: Partial ileal bypass produces sustained improvement in the blood lipid patterns of patients who have had a myocardial infarction and reduces their subsequent morbidity due to coronary heart disease. The role of this procedure in the management of hypercholesterolemia remains to be determined. These results provide strong evidence supporting the beneficial effects of lipid modification in the reduction of atherosclerosis progression.
Adult↗
Evaluation of Syva enzyme immunoassay for detection of Chlamydia trachomatis in genital specimens.
Detection of Chlamydia trachomatis infection was evaluated by culture and a new Syva enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in 1,012 patients at two Baltimore, Md., sexually transmitted disease clinics. The overall chlamydia prevalence determined by culture was 12%. For 506 fresh cervical and urethral specimens, the sensitivity of Syva EIA was 90% and its specificity was 94% compared with culture. Discordant Syva EIA results were further evaluated by staining the sediment in centrifuged culture transport media and Syva EIA transport tubes with a fluorescent monoclonal antibody to C. trachomatis to detect elementary bodies. Reanalysis of the data after use of this technique to resolve discordant results increased sensitivity and specificity to 92 and 96%, respectively. A subsample of 307 fresh cervical specimens was also tested in a three-way comparison using Abbott Chlamydiazyme, Syva EIA, and culture. In this sample, compared with culture, the sensitivity and specificity of Syva EIA were 87 and 95%, respectively, and for Chlamydiazyme they were 77 and 98%, respectively. Syva EIA is a 4-h, easy-to-perform enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay which has a high sensitivity with fresh genital specimens and offers an excellent alternative to culture.
Adolescent↗
Lipid results of partial ileal bypass in patients with heterozygous, type II-A hyperlipoproteinemia. Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias.
Although reduction in total plasma cholesterol has yet to be shown to have a beneficial effect on overall mortality, the weight of experimental and epidemiologic evidence supports efforts to lower total plasma cholesterol levels to reduce the risk of death from coronary heart disease (CHD). This is especially true in patients with heterozygous, type II-A hyperlipoproteinemia, whose total plasma cholesterol levels above the 90th percentile for age and sex place them at markedly increased risk of death from CHD. The lipid results of partial ileal bypass (PIB) were assessed in 110 patients with heterozygous, type II-A hyperlipoproteinemia in the Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias, a randomized, prospective clinical trial assessing the effects of cholesterol reduction on overall mortality and the course of CHD. Compared with dietary control (n = 52), PIB (n = 58) reduced total plasma cholesterol levels 24% +/- 2% (mean +/- SEM), reduced low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels 34% +/- 3%, and increased high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels 5% +/- 5% 5 years after surgery. Very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were 28% +/- 21% higher and plasma triglyceride levels were 24% +/- 11% higher in the surgical group. The HDL cholesterol/total plasma cholesterol and HDL cholesterol/LDL cholesterol ratios were significantly higher after PIB. Apolipoprotein A-I and HDL subfraction 2 levels were significantly higher and apolipoprotein B-100 levels were significantly lower in the surgical group. PIB successfully lowered mean total plasma cholesterol and LDL cholesterol levels below the limits recommended by the National Cholesterol Education Program to minimize the risk of death from CHD. These results confirm the efficacy and support the role of PIB in the management of patients with marked hypercholesterolemia.
Adult↗
Multicenter randomized study of single-dose ofloxacin versus amoxicillin-probenecid for treatment of uncomplicated gonococcal infection.
The safety and efficacy of ofloxacin, 400 mg orally, were compared with those of amoxicillin, 3.0 g, plus probenecid, 1.0 g orally, as single-dose therapy in 201 heterosexual patients (101 men and 100 women) with uncomplicated gonococcal infection. Treatment groups were comparable in age, duration of symptoms, number of sexual partners within the previous month, and number of previous episodes of sexually transmitted diseases. The cure rate for men treated with ofloxacin was 98% (47 of 48), and that for women was 100% (52 of 52). Cure rates for both men and women treated with amoxicillin-probenecid were 96% (51 of 53 men; 46 of 48 women). All 13 patients with positive rectal cultures and 7 of 8 patients with positive pharyngeal cultures treated with ofloxacin were cured. Neither regimen reliably eradicated coexistent infection with Chlamydia trachomatis. The MIC of ofloxacin for all but two of 198 pretreatment isolates was 0.3 microgram/ml or less. The MIC of amoxicillin for 90% of isolates tested was 1.0 microgram/ml. Single oral doses of ofloxacin and of amoxicillin plus probenecid were equally effective for treatment of urethral and cervical gonorrhea. Ofloxacin appears promising as treatment for rectal and pharyngeal infection, but studies with larger numbers of patients with rectal or pharyngeal infection or both are required for confirmation. Relative contraindications in children and possibly pregnant women plus the potential for single-step, high-level resistance may limit the usefulness of quinolone therapy for gonorrhea.
Adult↗
Using a symbiotic man/machine approach to evaluating visual clinical research data.
Some candidate medical expert system applications have a significant visual component. Knowledge engineers usually dismiss such task domains as potential expert systems applications. Our success in developing ESCA, a system for evaluating serial coronary angiograms, shows that such task domains should not be dismissed so quickly. We used a symbiotic approach between man and machine, where technologists provide the visual skills with an expert system imitating the conceptual skills of the expert, to produce a partially automated system that is more consistent and cost effective than one that is fully manual. The agreement between the system's conclusions and that of a panel of experts is good. The expert system actually has a slightly higher agreement rate with the expert panel than the agreement rate between two expert panel teams evaluating the same film pair.
Angiocardiography↗
Predictors of total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol change after partial ileal bypass.
POSCH is a prospective, randomized secondary intervention trial examining the effect of maximal lipoprotein modification achieved by partial ileal bypass on overall mortality and the course of coronary heart disease. In the initial 189 surgical patients, total cholesterol levels decreased from 256.7 +/- 2.6 mg/dl to 166.6 +/- 2 mg/dl, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels decreased from 181.5 +/- 2.7 mg/dl to 94.1 +/- 1.7 mg/dl 3 months after operation. These significant decreases were sustained through 5 years of follow-up (p less than 0.001). The total cholesterol level was 29.2 +/- 0.9 percent lower and the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was 43.2 +/- 1 percent lower at 5 years compared with the baseline level. Decreases of similar magnitude were seen in each of the common WHO lipoprotein phenotypes. The baseline total cholesterol level was the only significant independent preoperative predictor of the 5 year total cholesterol level (correlation coefficient 0.547; p less than 0.001), and the baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was the only significant independent preoperative determinant of the 5 year low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (correlation coefficient 0.599; p less than 0.001). These relationships are expressed by the following equations: 5 year total cholesterol = 0.54 X baseline total cholesterol + 42.3, and 5 year low-density lipoprotein cholesterol = 0.455 X baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol + 19.2. The decrease in total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels after partial ileal bypass are greater than reported by any trial of drug or diet intervention, including the Lipid Research Clinics Coronary Primary Prevention Trial which examined cholestyramine. Estimation of the change in total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels after partial ileal bypass can be made based on preoperative lipid analysis and is essential in comparing different therapeutic modalities and assessing the role of partial ileal bypass among strategies aimed at lowering coronary heart disease risk.
Adult↗
Program on Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias (POSCH): recruitment experience.
The Program on Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias (POSCH) is an investigator-initiated NHLBI grant-funded secondary coronary heart disease intervention trial using partial ileal bypass (PIB) for lipid reduction. Randomization started in September 1975 and ended in July 1983 with enrollment of 838 participants (421 surgery, 417 controls). The trial is scheduled to reveal the atherosclerosis impact of the lipid changes in 1990, at which time the average individual in the program will have been followed for 9.6 years. Initially, the magnitude of the recruitment task was greatly underestimated. An area containing 500,000 people was judged to be sufficient to randomize one patient per month. Actually, a population of 2.4-10.5 million, depending upon proximity to a clinic, was needed to achieve this goal. The study design was changed in 1981, due to recruitment costs, with reduction of the number of individuals to be randomized from 1000 to 838 and with extension of the duration of minimum follow-up from 5 to 7 years. Only with the development of a uniform model clinic concept, with specified levels of performance calculated from actual recruitment data, did accrual of patients into the trial become predictable and achievable. Some of the recruitment delays in POSCH were related to problems, in part generic to the existent grant funding mechanism and associated with decisions made by NHLBI and its Advisory Council. These delays were manifested by denial of reallocation of approved funds to initiate replacement clinics for discontinued ones, an 18-month delay in implementation of a protocol change in lipid criteria suggested by the Data Monitoring Committee, and a 2-year delay in the starting date for the fourth active clinic.
Adult↗
An example of expert systems applied to clinical trials: analysis of serial graded exercise ECG test data.
Clinical trials collect large amounts of data over time. The use of statistical methods to compare and interpret these serial data often fall short of complete evaluation because the analysis requires clinical judgment. As an alternative, some trials use individual experts or panels of experts to evaluate data, but this method usually requires the participation of clinicians who must spend large amounts of time performing tedious, repetitive tasks. The authors examined the use of expert systems to analyze serial clinical trial data where the analyses required use of clinical judgment. A prototype expert system was built to assess the data obtained from a pair of serial graded exercise ECG tests and reach a decision that would duplicate the decision reached by a cardiologist. The experiment was successful. Expert systems should be further developed and tested in other areas, such as serial coronary arteriography data.
Clinical Trials as Topic↗
Lipoprotein modification achieved by partial ileal bypass: five-year results of The Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias.
The Program on the Surgical Control of Hyperlipidemias (POSCH) is a multicentered, randomized, secondary intervention trial assessing the effect of lipoprotein modification achieved by partial ileal bypass (PIB) on overall mortality rates and the course of coronary heart disease. Of the 838 participants, 396 (196 control and 200 surgical patients) have complete 5-year lipoprotein results and are the basis of this report. After PIB, total cholesterol level decreased 24 +/- 1.2% (mean +/- SEM) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level fell 38 +/- 1.5% in comparison with control subjects. High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level was not changed by PIB; however, a significant decrease in HDL occurred over 5 years in the control group (41.7 +/- 0.7 mg/dl versus 39.5 +/- 0.6 mg/dl, p less than 0.05). This led to consistently higher HDL levels in the surgical group in comparison with control subjects after PIB. Very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride levels were higher in the surgery group than in control subjects (24 +/- 7.6% and 21 +/- 5.4% at 5 years). Apolipoprotein B-100 was significantly lower, and apolipoprotein A-I and HDL-2 were significantly higher in the surgery group. These lipoprotein changes are greater than have been reported from any previous trial of dietary or pharmacologic intervention, including the Lipid Research Clinics-Coronary Primary Prevention Trial, which used cholestyramine. Based on available epidemiologic data, these changes predict a marked reduction in morbidity and mortality rates associated with coronary heart disease after PIB.
Adult↗
More evidence for selective use of intraoperative cholangiography.
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Cholangiography↗
The POSCH data processing experience. The problem of metadata.
Metadata, the term, may be new but metadata, the concept, is not new. For purposes of this paper, the term metadata is defined as the data used to define, store, retrieve, combine, analyze, and present the data values (the "real" data, so to speak). As clinical research studies get larger, it becomes desirable to use automated managers of the metadata. The Program on the Surgical Control of the Hyperlipidemias (POSCH), a national multiclinic clinical trial, manages most of its metadata manually but has been experimenting with ways to more fully automate them. Its Information Management System (IMS) is described with special emphasis on how it manages the metadata. The case is presented for further automation and standardization of metadata in large clinical research studies so that costs can be contained and smaller increments of "progress" can be measured. The concept of a Metadatabase Management System (MDBMS) is developed and illustrated using POSCH.
Arteriosclerosis↗
Nutritional assessment indications of postburn complications.
This study evaluates the use of nutritional assessment indexes measured on the fifth day after injury to predict subsequent wound infections, episodes of septicemia, and other infectious complications in burned patients. Nutritional assessment data collected included anthropometric measurements (weight, height, triceps skinfold, and upper-arm circumference); biochemical testing (serum albumin concentration, serum transferrin concentration, total lymphocyte count, creatinine/height index, and nitrogen balance); and recall skin antigen testing. Seventy-four adult patients (mean age of 35 years) who had burn injuries ranging from 10% to 96% total body surface were studied. Indexes predictive of imminent wound infection include serum transferrin concentrations less than 150 mg/dl (p = .0006) and anergy to the skin test battery (p = .01). Those indexes were also prognostic of the development of septicemia (p = .0002 and p = .0001, respectively). Although statistically insignificant, total lymphocyte count also showed a similar trend toward predicting complications. Serum albumin concentration (less than 3.0 gm/dl), creatinine/height index (less than 60% standard), percent ideal body weight (less than 80%), percent weight change, and nitrogen balance did not contribute to group discrimination. Severe depletion of the visceral protein compartment was documented in a large percentage of patients on the fifth postburn day. Serum transferrin concentration and recall skin antigen testing can be helpful in identifying thermally injured patients who are at high risk of infectious complications.
Adolescent↗
Finding malnourished patients in a community hospital: development of a nutritional assessment service.
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Adolescent↗
The effect of status on blood pressure during verbal communication.
Blood pressures and heart rates of 40 subjects were recorded at 1-min intervals over 35 min during which subjects engaged in a variety of verbal activities with either a high-status or an equal-status experimenter. All subjects showed statistically significant increases in blood pressure and heart rate when speaking compared to when quiet. Blood pressure increases during speaking of the 20 subjects exposed to a high-status experimenter were significantly greater than those of subjects exposed to an equal-status experimenter. While the blood pressure increase was related partly to the act of speaking, the amount of increase was also related to the social distance between experimenter and subject. The results are discussed relative to behavioral interventions for the treatment of hypertension.
Adult↗