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J Grimley Evans

Publications and source records attributed to J Grimley Evans.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) supplementation for cognitive function in healthy elderly people.

BACKGROUND: In view of the theoretical possibility of beneficial effects of DHEA or DHEAS in retarding age-associated deterioration in cognitive function, we have reviewed studies in this area. OBJECTIVES: To establish whether administration of DHEA, or its sulphate, DHEAS, improves cognitive function or reduces the rate of decline of cognitive function in normal older adults. SEARCH STRATEGY: Trials were identified from a last updated search of the Specialized Register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group on 10 October 2005 using the terms dhea*, prasterone, dehydroepiandrosterone*. In addition MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL were searched to find trials with volunteers who had no or minor memory complaints. Relevant journals, personal communications and conference abstracts were searched for randomized controlled trials investigating the effects of DHEA/S on cognition in older adults. SELECTION CRITERIA: All randomized placebo-controlled trials enrolling people aged over 50 without dementia and to whom DHEA/S in any dosage was administered for more than one day were considered for inclusion in the review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data for the specified outcomes were independently extracted by two reviewers (JGE and RM) and cross-checked. Any discrepancies were discussed and resolved. No data pooling was undertaken owing to the lack of availability of the relevant statistics. MAIN RESULTS: Only three studies provided results from adequate parallel-group data. Barnhart 1999 enrolled perimenopausal women with complaints of decreased well-being and, using three cognitive measures, found no significant effect of DHEA compared with placebo at 3 months. Wolf 1998b enrolled 75 healthy volunteers (37 women and 38 men aged 59-81) in a study of the effect of DHEA supplements on cognitive impairment induced by stress; after two weeks of treatment, placebo group performance deteriorated significantly on a test of selective attention following a psychosocial stressor (p<0.05), while deterioration was not evident in the DHEA group (p=0.85). However, when compared with placebo, DHEA was associated with a significant impairment on a visual memory recall test (p<0.01) following the stressor. No significant effects were found on a third cognitive task. Effects were not found on tasks when administered in the absence of a stressor. van Niekerk 2001 found no effect on cognitive function in 46 men aged 62-76 from three months of DHEA supplementation. DHEA supplements were well tolerated and without significant adverse effects apart from the reduced performance in the visual memory recall test observed in one trial. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: What little evidence there is from controlled trials does not support a beneficial effect of DHEA supplementation on cognitive function of non demented middle-aged or elderly people. There is no consistent evidence from the controlled trials that DHEA produces any adverse effects. In view of growing public enthusiasm for DHEA supplementation, particularly in the USA, and the theoretical possibility of long-term neuroprotective effects of DHEA/S, there is a need for further high quality trials in which the duration of DHEA treatment is longer than one year, and the number of participants is large enough to provide adequate statistical power.

Aged↗
PubMed2004

Vitamin B12 and folate deficiency in later life.

OBJECTIVES: to examine the prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency and folate deficiency in later life in representative samples of the elderly population in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: a population-based cross-sectional analysis of 3,511 people aged 65 years or older from three studies was used to estimate the age-specific prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency and of folate deficiency. Vitamin B12 deficiency is conventionally diagnosed if serum vitamin B12 < 150 pmol/l ('low vitamin B12'). We defined 'metabolically significant vitamin B12 deficiency' as vitamin B12 < 200 pmol/l and blood total homocysteine >20 micro mol/l. Folate deficiency, which usually refers to serum folate <5 nmol/l, was defined as 'metabolically significant' if serum folate was <7 nmol/l and homocysteine >20 micro mol/l. RESULTS: the prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency, whether defined as low vitamin B12 or metabolically significant vitamin B12 deficiency increased with age in all three studies, from about 1 in 20 among people aged 65-74 years to 1 in 10 or even greater among people aged 75 years or greater. The prevalence of folate deficiency also increased with age, and was similar to that for vitamin B12 deficiencies, but only about 10% of people with low vitamin B12 levels also had low folate levels. CONCLUSION: the high prevalence of vitamin B12 and folate deficiency observed in older people indicates a particular need for vigilance for deficiency of these vitamins. Reliable detection and treatment of vitamin deficiency could reduce the risk of deficiency-related disability in old age.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2004

Does the type of flooring affect the risk of hip fracture?

BACKGROUND: The number of hip fractures occurring worldwide in 1990 was estimated at 1.7 million and is predicted to rise to 6.3 million by 2050. The vast majority occur as a result of simple falls and the impact of the femoral trochanter with the floor. Previous studies have addressed the problem from the patient's side of the impact. Little research has been carried out on the other surface involved in the impact, the floor. STUDY LOCATION: 34 residential care homes. METHODS: (1) The mechanical properties of the floor were measured with force transducers. (2) The number and location of falls and fractures on the various floors were recorded prospectively for 2 years. The threshold for reporting falls in different care homes was assessed using a standardised set of scenarios. RESULTS: A total of 6,641 falls and 222 fractures were recorded. Wooden carpeted floors were associated with the lowest number of fractures per 100 falls. The risk of fracture resulting from a fall was significantly lower compared to all other floor types (odds ratio 1.78, 95% CI 1.33-2.35). The mean impact force was significantly lower on wooden carpeted floors: 11.9 kN compared to the other floor types. DISCUSSION: The possible implications of our findings are considerable. Residents of homes are typically frail and many have a propensity to falls. In designing safer environments for older people, the type of floor should be chosen to minimise the risk of fracture. This may result in a major reduction in fractures in the elderly.

Accidental Falls↗
PubMed2004

Evaluation of the European Academy for Medicine of Ageing "Teaching the Teachers" program (EAMA course II 1997- 1998).

The European Academy for Medicine of Ageing, founded by professors in geriatric medicine, provides a geriatric education program for European postgraduate physicians in geriatric medicine who are future academics in geriatric medicine in their countries. The course is organized for 30 participants involved in four one week residential sessions over two years. The program of each session involves 20 teachers, and includes state of the art lectures, student's lectures and working-group discussions. A first course took place in 1995-96, a second in 1997-98, a third has been accomplished in 1999-00, a fourth for 2001-02 and a fifth is ongoing for 2003--2004. The sessions are subjected to an evaluation program regarding the skills of the students, the value of the presentations and the satisfaction about the educational activities. The evaluations of the four sessions of EAMA course II (1997-1998) are presented here, with emphasis on the changes across the sessions for the whole group and for the individual students. The results are good to excellent for the main goals of the course, both by self-evaluation and by peer-evaluation. The dynamic process of this European academic-oriented geriatric education program attracts an increasing number of participants seeking the necessary skills and expertise to obtain academic position in geriatrics, and to meet international colleagues for further collaborative opportunities. Changes and adaptations of the following programs are fostered by the evaluation program to enhance weaker points. Accordingly, improvements in the programs and in the evaluation methods have been introduced during the third course, and are tested during the fourth and the fifth course.

Academies and Institutes↗
PubMed2003

The effect of vitamin B6 on cognition.

BACKGROUND: Micronutrient status can affect cognitive function at all ages. Vitamin deficiencies could influence memory function and might contribute to age-associated cognitive impairment and dementia. Vitamin B6, comprising three chemically distinct compounds pyridoxal, pyridoxamine, and pyridoxine, is involved in the regulation of mental function and mood. Vitamin B6 is also an essential homocysteine re-methylation cofactor, and deficiency is associated with increase in blood homocysteine levels. Homocysteine is a risk factor for cerebrovascular disease and may also have directly toxic effects on neurons of the central nervous system. Neuropsychiatric disorders including seizures, migraine, chronic pain and depression have been linked to vitamin B6 deficiency. Epidemiological studies indicate that poor vitamin B6 status is common among older people. Hyperhomocysteinaemia has been suggested as a cause or mechanism in the development Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia. Supplementation with B vitamins including vitamin B6 has been shown to reduce blood homocysteine levels. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy of vitamin B6 supplementation in reducing the risk of developing cognitive impairment by older healthy people, or improving cognitive functioning of people with cognitive decline and dementia, whether or not vitamin B6 deficiency has been diagnosed. SEARCH STRATEGY: The Specialized Register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group was searched on 20 May 2003 using the terms: vitamin B6, pyridoxine, pyridoxamine, pyridoxal. For relevant trials on healthy elderly people MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL were searched using the previously mentioned terms as well as the term cognit * SELECTION CRITERIA: All unconfounded, double-blind randomized controlled trials in which the intervention with vitamin B6 was compared with placebo for healthy older people or people with cognitive decline or dementia. The primary outcome of interest was the efficacy of vitamin B6 supplementation on cognitive function. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: The two reviewers independently evaluated all studies identified as possibly meeting the criteria for inclusion. One reviewer independently extracted the data. Studies were rated for their overall quality. The weighted mean differences between treatment and placebo groups, with 95% confidence intervals, were calculated for each outcome. Review Manager version 4.2 was used to analyse the variance. MAIN RESULTS: No trials of vitamin B6 involving people with cognitive impairment or dementia were found. The two trials included in the review (Bryan 2002; Deijen 1992) used a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled design and involved 109 healthy older people. One trial restricted enrolment to women and the other to men. Vitamin B6 supplementation and healthy older women: Bryan 2002 enrolled 211 healthy women from various age groups into a 5-week study. The trial was of multifactorial design with folic acid, vitamin B12, vitamin B6 and placebo in its four arms. Twelve healthy women aged 65 to 92 years received 75 mg vitamin B6 orally per day and were compared with 21 healthy women who were allocated to placebo. No statistically significant benefits from vitamin B6 on mood or cognition were observed. Vitamin B6 supplementation and healthy older men: Deijen 1992 recruited 76 healthy men aged 70 to 79 years. They were divided into 38 matched pairs, one member of each pair randomly allocated to 20 mg of vitamin B6 (pyridoxine hydrochloride) per day for 12 weeks the other to placebo. No statistically significant differences between treatment and placebo were found in their effects on cognition or mood. Effect of vitamin B6 supplementation on vitamin B6 status: Deijen 1992 reported that 20 mg of pyridoxine hydrochloride per day for 12 weeks increased blood vitamin B6 activity as assessed as by plasma pyridoxal-5'-phosphate (WMD 238, 95%CI 211.58 to 264.42, P<0.00001) and erythrocyte enzyme asparate aminotransferase (WMD 0.43, 95%CI 0.30 to 0.56, P<0.00001). Effect of vitamin B6 supplementation on blood homocysteine concentration: Neither of the included trials measured homocysteine levels. Drop-outs: All participants allocated to vitamin B6 or placebo completed the trial protocol. Adverse Events: No adverse effects were reported. Effect of vitamin B6 on carer burden, care costs and institutionalization rate: We found no trials in which these outcomes were assessed. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: This review found no evidence for short-term benefit from vitamin B6 in improving mood (depression, fatigue and tension symptoms) or cognitive functions. For the older people included in one of the two trials included in the review, oral vitamin B6 supplements improved biochemical indices of vitamin B6 status, but potential effects on blood homocysteine levels were not assessed in either study. This review found evidence that there is scope for increasing some biochemical indices of vitamin B6 status among older people. More randomized controlled trials are needed to explore possible benefits from vitamin B6 supplementation for healthy older people and those with cognitively impairment or dementia.

Aged↗
PubMed2003

Evidence of underdiagnosis of myasthenia gravis in older people.

BACKGROUND: Myasthenia gravis is a potentially serious but treatable muscle disease caused by autoantibodies directed at the acetylcholine receptor (AChR) on the postsynaptic membrane of the neuromuscular junction. There is anecdotal evidence that the diagnosis is sometimes missed in older patients. OBJECTIVE: To examine the incidence and age distribution of positive AChR antibodies in samples referred to diagnostic laboratories in the UK, and the prevalence of positive AChR antibodies in samples from a cohort of older individuals. METHODS: Positive AChR antibody tests were identified from all UK centres registered for the assay with the European quality assurance scheme (EQAS) during 1997-99, and the age and sex specific incidence was calculated, based on the UK population. The prevalence of AChR antibodies in sera from a sample of 2000 individuals aged > or =60 years was determined. RESULTS: 3183 individuals had positive AChR antibody tests on routine screening during the years 1997 to 1999 in the UK, giving an annual incidence of 1.8/100 000. In both sexes, the age specific incidence rose steeply between the ages of 45 and 74, reaching 9.9/100 000 in men, and then fell, with a sharp decline above the age of 80. In the prevalence study, whereas only one serum from individuals aged 60-74 years was positive for AChR antibodies (0.12%), sera from eight individuals aged > or =75 years were positive (0.7%). Only one had a previous clinical diagnosis of myasthenia gravis but four others had histories of stroke or transient ischaemic attacks. CONCLUSIONS: The sharp fall in the incidence of clinically recognised myasthenia gravis in people over 80 years of age in our national AChR antibody incidence study, and the high prevalence of previously unrecognised positive AChR antibodies in those > or =75 years old, suggest that myasthenia gravis may be substantially underdiagnosed in older people.

Aged↗
PubMed2003

Estimating implied rates of discount in healthcare decision-making.

OBJECTIVES: To consider whether implied rates of discounting from the perspectives of individual and society differ, and whether implied rates of discounting in health differ from those implied in choices involving finance or "goods". DESIGN: The study comprised first a review of economics, health economics and social science literature and then an empirical estimate of implied rates of discounting in four fields: personal financial, personal health, public financial and public health, in representative samples of the public and of healthcare professionals. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Samples were drawn in the former county and health authority district of South Glamorgan, Wales. The public sample was a representative random sample of men and women, aged over 18 years and drawn from electoral registers. The health professional sample was drawn at random with the cooperation of professional leads to include doctors, nurses, professions allied to medicine, public health, planners and administrators. RESULTS: The literature review revealed few empirical studies in representative samples of the population, few direct comparisons of public with private decision-making and few direct comparisons of health with financial discounting. Implied rates of discounting varied widely and studies suggested that discount rates are higher the smaller the value of the outcome and the shorter the period considered. The relationship between implied discount rates and personal attributes was mixed, possibly reflecting the limited nature of the samples. Although there were few direct comparisons, some studies found that individuals apply different rates of discount to social compared with private comparisons and health compared with financial. The present study also found a wide range of implied discount rates, with little systematic effect of age, gender, educational level or long-term illness. There was evidence, in both samples, that people chose a lower rate of discount in comparisons made on behalf of society than in comparisons made for themselves. Both public and health professional samples tended to choose lower discount rates in health-related comparisons than in finance-related comparisons. It was also suggested that implied rates of discount, derived from responses to hypothetical questions, can be influenced by detail of question framing. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggested that both the lay public and healthcare professionals consider that the discount rate appropriate for public decisions is lower than that for private decisions. This finding suggests that lay people as well as healthcare professionals, used to making decisions on behalf of others, recognise that society is not simply an aggregate of individuals. It also implies a general appreciation that society is more stable and has a more predictable future than does the individual. There is fairly general support for this view in the theoretical literature and limited support in the few previous direct comparisons. Further research is indicated, possibly involving more in-depth interviewing and drawing inference on real, rather than hypothetical choices.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

Piracetam for dementia or cognitive impairment.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical efficacy of piracetam for the features of dementia or cognitive impairment, classified according to the major subtypes of dementia: vascular, Alzheimer's disease or mixed vascular and Alzheimer's disease or unclassified dementia or cognitive impairment not fulfilling the criteria for dementia. SEARCH STRATEGY: The Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Group Register of Clinical Trials was searched using the terms "piracetam", "nootropic" and "2-oxo-l-pyrrolidine acetamide". Electronic bibliographic databases including Medline, Embase, PychLit, Current Contents, Sociofile were searched back to 1966 with the terms piracetam, nootropics, 2-oxo-1-pyrrolidine and trials. In addition the pharmaceutical company responsible for marketing most of the piracetam worldwide, UCB Pharma, provided a comprehensive list of abstracts, which included many unpublished studies. As many of these unpublished, placebo control studies will be reviewed as possible. SELECTION CRITERIA: All unconfounded trials specified as randomised in which treatment with piracetam was administered for more than a day and compared with placebo in patients with dementia of the Alzheimer's type, vascular dementia or mixed vascular and Alzheimer's disease or uncalssified dementia or cognitive impairment not fulfilling the criteria for dementia. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted independently by two reviewers. Each study was independently verified as fulfilling the inclusion criteria. Studies were rated for methodological quality by assessment of blinding and loss before analysis as described by Jadad et al. (1996). Studies were pooled if appropriate and possible, and the pooled odds ratios (95%CI) or the average differences (95%CI) were estimated. Where possible, intention-to-treat data were used. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine if successive elimination of those studies performing most poorly on these quality criteria changed the effect estimate. MAIN RESULTS: Unfortunately, many of these studies were crossover in design and data were unavailable from the first period. In many other studies data were not able to be extracted from the first period. From the data that were pooled there was only one outcome where significant amounts of evidence were available, Global Impression of Change. There was evidence of heterogeneity in the results from the individual studies, Chi squared test = 20.8 (df=5). Using a fixed effects model the odds ratio for improvement in the Piracetem group compared with the Placebo group was 3.55, [95% CI][2.45, 5.16]. If a random effects model was used the odds ratio was 3.47 [1.29, 9.30]. If one single-blind study was excluded, the fixed effects model yielded an odds ratio of 3.36 [2.29, 4.99] and if a random effects model was applied then the odds ratio was 2.89 [1.01, 8.24]. The evidence of effects on cognition and other measures, was inconclusive. REVIEWER'S CONCLUSIONS: At this stage the evidence available from the published literature does not support the use of Piracetem in the treatment of people with dementia or cognitive impairment because effects were found only on global impression of change but not on any of the more specific measures. There is a need for further evaluation of piracetam by : 1) Obtaining the data from these studies for an individual patient database review, 2) Performing a randomised trial of Piracetam in patients with diagnoses made by currently accepted diagnostic criteria. Piracetam should be trialled for a period of at least 6 months and preferably longer. Specific cognitive instruments which are sensitive to change, Clinician Global Impression of Change, levels of dependency and caregiver quality of life scales should also be incorporated in such a study.

Alzheimer Disease↗
PubMed2000

21st Century: Review: Ageing and medicine.

Throughout the world, populations are ageing. The response of the health services needs to be based on a knowledge of the nature of human ageing and the principles of rational health care for older people. Ageing comes about from interactions between intrinsic (genetic) and extrinsic (environment and lifestyle) factors. Health care has to be responsive to the general needs of older people, but also to recognize the heterogeneity produced by different rates and patterns of individual ageing. There are now real possibilities of improving the course of human ageing through modulation of both intrinsic and extrinsic processes. There is also a need to adapt social institutions to what is a permanent change in demography.

Aging↗
PubMed1998

Mental health expectancy--the European perspective: a synopsis of results presented at the Conference of the European Network for the Calculation of Health Expectancies (Euro-REVES). Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study Group.

The increase in life expectancy observed over the last decade has particular relevance for mental health conditions of old age, such as dementia. Although mental disorders have been estimated to be responsible for 60% of all disabilities, until recently population health indicators such as health expectancies have concentrated on calculating disability-free life expectancy based on physical functioning. In 1994, a European Network for the Calculation of Health Expectancies (Euro-REVES) was established, one of its aims being the development and promotion of mental health expectancies. Such indicators may have an important role in monitoring future changes in the mental health of populations and predicting service needs. This article summarizes the proceedings and recommendations of the first European Conference on Mental Health Expectancy.

Aged↗
PubMed1997

Implications for health services.

Health services for older people in the NHS have developed pragmatically, and reflect the nature of disease in later life and the need to agree objectives of care with patients. Although services are likely to be able to cope with the immediate future, the growth of the elderly population anticipated from 2030 calls for long-term planning and research. The issue of funding requires immediate political thought and action. Scientifically the focus needs to be on maximizing the efficiency of services by health services research and reducing the incidence of disability in later life through research on its biological and social determinants. Senescence is a progressive loss of adaptability due to an interaction between intrinsic (genetic) processes with extrinsic factors in environment and lifestyle. There are grounds for postulating that a policy of postponement of the onset of disability, by modifications of lifestyle and environment, could reduce the average duration of disability before death. The new political structures of Europe offer under exploited-unexploited opportunities for the necessary research.

Aged↗
PubMed1996

The development of ischemic heart disease in relation to autoimmune thyroid disease in a 20-year follow-up study of an English community.

The original Whickham Survey documented risk factors for cardiovascular disease and the prevalence of thyroid disorders in a sample of 2779 adults that closely matched the British population. A 20-year follow-up study has determined outcomes in terms of morbidity and mortality from ischemic heart disease in over 97% of the original survey population. Analysis of deaths from all causes and from ischemic heart disease showed no association with antithyroid antibody status identified at first survey. A multiple logistic regression using the development of ischemic heart disease in the total population at follow-up as the dependent variable found that the significant predictor variables for men were age, cholesterol, mean arterial blood pressure, smoking history, and skinfold thickness index. For women only age, cholesterol, and mean arterial blood pressure were significant. The presence of autoimmune thyroid disease, as defined by either hypothyroidism, positive antithyroid antibodies, or raised serum thyrotropin at first survey, was not significant. A retrospective cohort study of a subsample of women identified at first survey with positive antithyroid antibodies or raised serum thyrotropin and closely matched controls found no significant association with mortality or development of ischemic heart disease. There is no evidence from this study to suggest that evidence of autoimmune thyroid disease identified 20 years ago is associated with an increased risk of ischemic heart disease.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

The incidence of thyroid disorders in the community: a twenty-year follow-up of the Whickham Survey.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The original Whickham Survey documented the prevalence of thyroid disorders in a randomly selected sample of 2779 adults which matched the population of Great Britain in age, sex and social class. The aim of the twenty-year follow-up survey was to determine the incidence and natural history of thyroid disease in this cohort. DESIGN, PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Subjects were traced at follow-up via the Electoral Register, General Practice registers, Gateshead Family Health Services Authority register and Office of Population Censuses and Surveys. Eight hundred and twenty-five subjects (30% of the sample) had died and, in addition to death certificates, two-thirds had information from either hospital/General Practitioner notes or post-mortem reports to document morbidity prior to death. Of the 1877 known survivors, 96% participated in the follow-up study and 91% were tested for clinical, biochemical and immunological evidence of thyroid dysfunction. RESULTS: Outcomes in terms of morbidity and mortality were determined for over 97% of the original sample. The mean incidence (with 95% confidence intervals) of spontaneous hypothyroidism in women was 3.5/1000 survivors/year (2.8-4.5) rising to 4.1/1000 survivors/year (3.3-5.0) for all causes of hypothyroidism and in men was 0.6/1000 survivors/year (0.3-1.2). The mean incidence of hyperthyroidism in women was 0.8/1000 survivors/year (0.5-1.4) and was negligible in men. Similar incidence rates were calculated for the deceased subjects. An estimate of the probability of the development of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism at a particular time, i.e. the hazard rate, showed an increase with age in hypothyroidism but no age relation in hyperthyroidism. The frequency of goitre decreased with age with 10% of women and 2% of men having a goitre at follow-up, as compared to 23% and 5% in the same subjects respectively at the first survey. The presence of a goitre at either survey was not associated with any clinical or biochemical evidence of thyroid dysfunction. In women, an association was found between the development of a goitre and thyroid-antibody status at follow-up, but not initially. The risk of having developed hypothyroidism at follow-up was examined with respect to risk factors identified at first survey. The odds ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) of developing hypothyroidism with (a) raised serum TSH alone were 8 (3-20) for women and 44 (19-104) for men; (b) positive anti-thyroid antibodies alone were 8 (5-15) for women and 25 (10-63) for men; (c) both raised serum TSH and positive anti-thyroid antibodies were 38 (22-65) for women and 173 (81-370) for men. A logit model indicated that increasing values of serum TSH above 2mU/l at first survey increased the probability of developing hypothyroidism which was further increased in the presence of anti-thyroid antibodies. Neither a positive family history of any form of thyroid disease nor parity of women at first survey was associated with increased risk of developing hypothyroidism. Fasting cholesterol and triglyceride levels at first survey when corrected for age showed no association with the development of hypothyroidism in women. CONCLUSIONS: This historical cohort study has provided incidence data for thyroid disease over a twenty-year period for a representative cross-sectional sample of the population, and has allowed the determination of the importance of prognostic risk factors for thyroid disease identified twenty years earlier.

Adult↗