Reservoir time-scales for anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere: commentary
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Atmosphere↗
Biomedical subjects
J F Kasting
Publications and source records attributed to J F Kasting.
Early Mars: how warm and how wet?
Early in its history, Mars underwent fluvial erosion that has been interpreted as evidence for a warmer, wetter climate. However, no atmosphere composed of only CO2 and H2O appears capable of producing mean planetary temperatures even close to 0 degrees C. Rather than by precipitation, aquifer recharge and ground water seepage may have been enabled by hydrothermal convection driven by geothermal heat and heat associated with impacts. Some climatic warming was probably necessary to allow water to flow for long distances across the surface. Modest warming could be provided by even a low-pressure CO2 atmosphere if it was supplemented with small amounts of CH4, NH3, or SO2. Episodic excursions to high obliquities may also have raised temperatures over some portions of the planet's surface.
Ammonia↗
Earth's early atmosphere.
Ideas about atmospheric composition and climate on the early Earth have evolved considerably over the last 30 years, but many uncertainties still remain. It is generally agreed that the atmosphere contained little or no free oxygen initially and that oxygen concentrations increased markedly near 2.0 billion years ago, but the precise timing of and reasons for its rise remain unexplained. Likewise, it is usually conceded that the atmospheric greenhouse effect must have been higher in the past to offset reduced solar luminosity, but the levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases required remain speculative. A better understanding of past atmospheric evolution is important to understanding the evolution of life and to predicting whether Earth-like planets might exist elsewhere in the galaxy.
Atmosphere↗
Habitable zones around main sequence stars.
A one-dimensional climate model is used to estimate the width of the habitable zone (HZ) around our Sun and around other main sequence stars. Our basic premise is that we are dealing with Earth-like planets with CO2/H2O/N2 atmospheres and that habitability requires the presence of liquid water on the planet's surface. The inner edge of the HZ is determined in our model by loss of water via photolysis and hydrogen escape. The outer edge of the HZ is determined by the formation of CO2 clouds, which cool a planet's surface by increasing its albedo and by lowering the convective lapse rate. Conservative estimates for these distances in our own Solar System are 0.95 and 1.37 AU, respectively; the actual width of the present HZ could be much greater. Between these two limits, climate stability is ensured by a feedback mechanism in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations vary inversely with planetary surface temperature. The width of the HZ is slightly greater for planets that are larger than Earth and for planets which have higher N2 partial pressures. The HZ evolves outward in time because the Sun increases in luminosity as it ages. A conservative estimate for the width of the 4.6-Gyr continuously habitable zone (CHZ) is 0.95 to 1.15 AU. Stars later than F0 have main sequence lifetimes exceeding 2 Gyr and, so, are also potential candidates for harboring habitable planets. The HZ around an F star is larger and occurs farther out than for our Sun; the HZ around K and M stars is smaller and occurs farther in. Nevertheless, the widths of all of these HZs are approximately the same if distance is expressed on a logarithmic scale. A log distance scale is probably the appropriate scale for this problem because the planets in our own Solar System are spaced logarithmically and because the distance at which another star would be expected to form planets should be related to the star's mass. The width of the CHZ around other stars depends on the time that a planet is required to remain habitable and on whether a planet that is initially frozen can be thawed by modest increases in stellar luminosity. For a specified period of habitability, CHZs around K and M stars are wider (in log distance) than for our Sun because these stars evolve more slowly. Planets orbiting late K stars and M stars may not be habitable, however, b ecause they can become trapped in synchronous rotation as a consequence of tidal damping. F stars have narrower (log distance) CHZ's than our Sun because they evolve more rapidly. Our results suggest that mid-to-early K stars should be considered along with G stars as optimal candidates in the search for extraterrestrial life.
Atmosphere↗
New constraints on Precambrian ocean composition.
The Precambrian record of carbonate and evaporite sedimentation is equivocal. In contrast to most previous interpretations, it is possible that Archean, Paleoproterozoic, and to a lesser extent, Meso to Neoproterozoic seawater favored surplus abiotic carbonate precipitation, as aragonite and (hi-Mg?) calcite, in comparison to younger times. Furthermore, gypsum/anhydrite may have been only rarely precipitated prior to halite precipitation during evaporation prior to about 1.8 Ga. Two effects may have contributed to these relationships. First, sulfate concentration of seawater may have been critically low prior to about 1.9 Ga so the product mCa++ x mSO4-- would not have produced gypsum before halite, as in the Mesoproterozoic to modern ocean. Second, the bicarbonate to calcium ratio was sufficiently high so that during progressive evaporation of seawater, calcium would have been exhausted before the gypsum field was reached. The pH of the Archean and Paleoproterozoic ocean need not have been significantly different from the modern value of 8.1, even at CO2 partial pressures of a tenth of an atmosphere. Higher CO2 partial pressures require somewhat lower pH values.
Bicarbonates↗
Mantle redox evolution and the oxidation state of the Archean atmosphere.
Current models predict that the early atmosphere consisted mostly of CO2, N2, and H2O, along with traces of H2 and CO. Such models are based on the assumption that the redox state of the upper mantle has not changed, so that volcanic gas composition has remained approximately constant with time. We argue here that this assumption is probably incorrect: the upper mantle was originally more reduced than today, although not as reduced as the metal arrest level, and has become progressively more oxidized as a consequence of the release of reduced volcanic gases and the subduction of hydrated, oxidized seafloor. Data on the redox state of sulfide and chromite inclusions in diamonds imply that the process of mantle oxidation was slow, so that reduced conditions could have prevailed for as much as half of the earth's history. To be sure, other oxybarometers of ancient rocks give different results, so the question of when the mantle redox state has changed remains unresolved. Mantle redox evolution is intimately linked to the oxidation state of the primitive atmosphere: A reduced Archean atmosphere would have had a high hydrogen escape rate and should correspond to a changing mantle redox state; an oxidized Archean atmosphere should be associated with a constant mantle redox state. The converses of these statements are also true. Finally, our theory of mantle redox evolution may explain why the Archean atmosphere remained oxygen-deficient until approximately 2.0 billion years ago (Ga) despite a probable early origin for photosynthesis.
Atmosphere↗
Susceptibility of the early Earth to irreversible glaciation caused by carbon dioxide clouds.
Simple energy-balance climate models of the Budyko/Sellers type predict that a small (2-5%) decrease in solar output could result in runaway glaciation on the Earth. But solar fluxes 25-30% lower early in the Earth's history apparently did not lead to this result. One currently favoured explanation is that high partial pressures of carbon dioxide, caused by higher volcanic outgassing rates and/or slower rates of silicate weathering, created a large enough greenhouse effect to keep the planet warm. This does not resolve the problem of climate stability, however, because as we argue here, the oceans can freeze much more quickly than CO2 can accumulate in the atmosphere. Had such a transient global glaciation occurred in the distant past when solar luminosity was low, it might have been irreversible because of the formation of highly reflective CO2 clouds, similar to those encountered in climate simulations of early Mars. Our simulations of the early Earth, incorporating the possible formation of such clouds, suggest that the Earth might not be habitable today had it not been warm during the first part of its history.
Ammonia↗
Paradox lost and paradox found
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Atmosphere↗
Bolide impacts and the oxidation state of carbon in the Earth's early atmosphere.
A one-dimensional photochemical model was used to examine the effect of bolide impacts on the oxidation state of Earth's primitive atmosphere. The impact rate should have been high prior to 3.8 Ga before present, based on evidence derived from the Moon. Impacts of comets or carbonaceous asteroids should have enhanced the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by bringing in CO ice and/or organic carbon that can be oxidized to CO in the impact plume. Ordinary chondritic impactors would contain elemental iron that could have reacted with ambient CO2 to give CO. Nitric oxide (NO) should also have been produced by reaction between ambient CO2 and N2 in the hot impact plumes. High NO concentrations increase the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by increasing the rainout rate of oxidized gases. According to the model, atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios of unity or greater are possible during the first several hundred million years of Earth's history, provided that dissolved CO was not rapidly oxidized to bicarbonate in the ocean. Specifically, high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios are possible if either: (1) the climate was cool (like today's climate), so that hydration of dissolved CO to formate was slow, or (2) the formate formed from CO was efficiently converted into volatile, reduced carbon compounds, such as methane. A high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio may have helped to facilitate prebiotic synthesis by enhancing the production rates of hydrogen cyanide and formaldehyde. Formaldehyde may have been produced even more efficiently by photochemical reduction of bicarbonate and formate in Fe(++)-rich surface waters.
Atmosphere↗
What determines the volume of the oceans?
The volume of Earth's oceans may be determined by a dynamic mechanism involving exchange of water between the crust and the mantle. Fast-spreading mid-ocean ridges are currently submerged to a depth at which the pressure is close to the critical pressure for seawater. This ensures optimal convective heat transport and, hence, maximal penetration of hydrothermal circulation along the ridge axes. The oceanic crust is hydrated to a depth of a kilometer or more and can therefore carry a substantial flux of water to the upper mantle when it is subducted. The current ingassing rate of water by this process is probably at least sufficient to balance the outgassing rate. If the oceans were shallower, as they may have been in the distant past, convective heat transport would be reduced and the depth of hydrothermal penetration and crustal hydration would decrease. Outgassing would exceed ingassing and ocean volume would increase. The system is self-stabilizing as long as the depth of the oceans does not exceed its present value. This mechanism could explain why continental freeboard has remained approximately constant since the Archean despite probable increases in continental area.
Climate↗
Effects of fuel and forest conservation on future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
We develop a numerical simulation of the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon that works over time scales extending from years to millions of years. The ocean is represented by warm and cold shallow water reservoirs, a thermocline reservoir, and deep Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific reservoirs. The atmosphere is characterized by a single carbon reservoir and the global biota by a single biomass reservoir. The simulation includes the rock cycle, distinguishing between shelf carbonate and pelagic carbonate precipitation, with distinct lysocline depths in the three deep ocean reservoirs. Dissolution of pelagic carbonates in response to decrease in lysocline depth is included. The simulation is tuned to reproduce the observed radiocarbon record resulting from atomic weapon testing. It is tuned also to reproduce the distribution of dissolved phosphate and total dissolved carbon between the ocean reservoirs as well as the carbon isotope ratios for both 13C and 14C in ocean and atmosphere. The simulation reproduces reasonably well the historical record of carbon dioxide partial pressure as well as the atmospheric isotope ratios for 13C and 14C over the last 200 yr as these have changed in response to fossil fuel burning and land use changes, principally forest clearance. The agreements between observation and calculation involves the assumption of a carbon dioxide fertilization effect in which the rate of production of biomass increases with increasing carbon dioxide partial pressure. At present the fertilization effect of increased carbon dioxide outweighs the effects of forest clearance, so the biota comprises an overall sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide sufficiently large to bring the budget approximately into balance. This simulation is used to examine the future evolution of carbon dioxide and its sensitivity to assumptions about the rate of fossil fuel burning and of forest clearance. Over times extending up to thousands of years, the results are insensitive to the formulation of the rock cycle and to the dissolution of deep sea carbonate sediments. Atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to increase as long fossil fuel is burned at a significant rate, because the rate of fossil fuel production of carbon dioxide far exceeds the rates at which geochemical processes can remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The maximum concentration of carbon dioxide achieved in the atmosphere depends on the total amount of fossil fuel burned, but only weakly on the rate of burning. The future course of atmospheric carbon dioxide is, however, very sensitive to the fate of the forests in this simulation because of the important role assigned to carbon dioxide fertilization of plant growth rate. Forest clearance drives up atmospheric carbon dioxide not only by converting biomass into atmospheric carbon dioxide but more importantly by reducing the capacity of the biota to sequester fossil fuel carbon dioxide. In this simulation, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could be sustained indefinitely below 500 parts per million (ppm) if fossil fuel combustion rates were immediately cut from their present value of 5 x 10(14) m/y to 0.2 x 10(14) m/y (a factor of 25 reduction) and if further forest clearance were halted. If neither of these conditions is met and if we consume most of the world's fossil fuel reserves, peak carbon dioxide concentrations of 1000-2000 ppm are probable within the next few centuries.
Atmosphere↗
Making Mars habitable.
Mars is believed to be lifeless, but it may be possible to transform it into a planet suitable for habitation by plants, and conceivably humans. The success of such an enterprise would depend on the abundance, distribution and form of materials on the planet that could provide carbon dioxide, water and nitrogen.
Atmosphere↗
CO2 condensation and the climate of early Mars.
A one-dimensional, radiative-convective climate model was used to reexamine the question of whether early Mars could have been kept warm by the greenhouse effect of a dense, CO2 atmosphere. The new model differs from previous models by considering the influence of CO2 clouds on the convective lapse rate and on the the planetary radiation budget. Condensation of CO2 decreases the lapse rate and, hence, reduces the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. This phenomenon becomes increasingly important at low solar luminosities and may preclude warm (0 degree C), globally averaged surface temperatures prior to approximately 2 billion years ago unless other greenhouse gases were present in addition to CO2 and H2O. Alternative mechanisms for warming early Mars and explaining channel formation are discussed.
Atmosphere↗
Box models for the evolution of atmospheric oxygen: an update.
A simple 3-box model of the atmosphere/ocean system is used to describe the various stages in the evolution of atmospheric oxygen. In Stage I, which probably lasted until redbeds began to form about 2.0 Ga ago, the Earth's surface environment was generally devoid of free O2, except possibly in localized regions of high productivity in the surface ocean. In Stage II, which may have lasted for less than 150 Ma, the atmosphere and surface ocean were oxidizing, while the deep ocean remained anoxic. In Stage III, which commenced with the disappearance of banded iron formations around 1.85 Ga ago and has lasted until the present, all three surface reservoirs contained appreciable amounts of free O2. Recent and not-so-recent controversies regarding the abundance of oxygen in the Archean atmosphere are identified and discussed. The rate of O2 increase during the Middle and Late Proterozoic is identified as another outstanding question.
Atmosphere↗
Xenon fractionation in porous planetesimals.
The distinctively fractionated Xe on Mars and Earth may have its root in a common source from which both planets accreted. We begin with Ozima and Nakazawa's hypothesis that terrestrial Xe fractionation was caused by gravitational separation of adsorbed solar nebular gases inside large porous planetesimals. We point out that Xe would have been trapped as the planetesimal grew and pores were squeezed shut by lithostatic pressure. We show that enough fractionated Xe to supply the Earth could have been trapped this way. The degree of fractionation is controlled by the lithostatic pressure at the pore-closing front and so would have been roughly the same for all large planetesimals. The predicted degree of fractionation agrees well with that preserved in terrestrial and martian Xe. Relative to Xe, this source is strongly depleted in other noble gases. In contrast to the original Ozima and Nakazawa hypothesis, our hypothesis predicts the observed fractionation, and it allows planetary accretion to occur after the dissipation of the solar nebula. The required planetesimals are large, representing a class of object now extinct in the solar system.
Atmosphere↗
Mass fractionation of noble gases in diffusion-limited hydrodynamic hydrogen escape.
Mass fractionation by hydrodynamic hydrogen escape is a promising mechanism for explaining the observed elemental and isotopic abundance patterns in terrestrial planet atmospheres. Previous work has considered only pure hydrogen winds. Here, the theory of mass fractionation by hydrogen escape is extended to atmospheres in which hydrogen is not the only major constituent. Analytical solutions are derived for cases in which all relevant atmospheric constituents escape; both analytical and numerical solutions are obtained for cases in which important heavy constituents are retained. In either case the fractionation patterns that result can differ significantly from those produced by pure hydrogen winds. Three applications of the theory are discussed: (1) The observed fractionation of terrestrial atmospheric neon with respect to mantle neon can be explained as a by-product of diffusion-limited hydrogen escape from a steam atmosphere toward the end of accretion. (2) The anomalously high Martian (SNC) 38Ar/36Ar ratio is attributed to hydrodynamic fractionation by a vigorously escaping, nearly pure hydrogen wind. (3) It is possible that the present high Martian D/H ratio was established during the same hydrodynamic escape phase that fractionated argon, but the predicted degree of D/H enrichment is sensitive to other, less well constrained parameters.
Argon↗
Impacts and the origin of life.
As living creatures, all of us have some interest in the question of how life originated. To some, the question is more religious than scientific; nonetheless, a small but dedicated group of scientists spend their careers trying to answer it from a rational standpoint. Logically, the question can be broken down into the three standard divisions of any mystery: When did life originate? Where did it originate? And how did it originate? Of these three sub-questions the last is by far the most difficult and I will make no attempt to address it here. I will however take a personal look at the two easier parts of the problem. In particular, I will outline my current view of the physical environment of the early Earth, and I will try to show how observations of other solar system bodies, especially our own Moon, provide clues as to when and where life could have originated.
Atmosphere↗
Annihilation of ecosystems by large asteroid impacts on the early Earth.
Large asteroid impacts produced globally lethal conditions by evaporating large volumes of ocean water on the early Earth. The Earth may have been continuously habitable by ecosystems that did not depend on photosynthesis as early as 4.44 Gyr BP (before present). Only a brief interval after 3.8 Gyr exists between the time when obligate photosynthetic organisms could continuously evolve and the time when the palaeontological record indicates highly evolved photosynthetic ecosystems.
Biological Evolution↗