Sewall Wright, 1889-1988: in memoriam.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to J F Crow.
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A formula by J. L. King gives the equilibrium mutation load as L = 2 sigma ui(1 - qi)/z - x) in which ui is the mutation rate to deleterious alleles at the ith locus, qi is the frequency of mutant alleles at this locus, x is the mean number of such mutant genes per individual before selection, z is the mean number in individuals eliminated by selection, and the summation is over all relevant loci. We show that this rule is inaccurate for intense selection and that a correct formula is L = 2 sigma ui(1 - qi) w/(z - x) = 2U w/(z - x) = 2U/(z - x + 2U) in which U is the mean number of new mutations per haploid genome in the population and w is the mean relative fitness before selection. If w/(z - x) less than 1/2, the mutation load is less than the Haldane value (U less than or equal to L less than or equal to 2U) and can be considerably less. In a diploid asexual population, however, with independent occurrence of mutations, L = 1 - e-2U regardless of the mode of selection.
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Although the progress in basic understanding of mutagenesis and in techniques for precise measurement of mutation rates in test systems has been enormous, there has been very little progress in applying this information to estimates of germline mutation in humans, and even less in translating such estimates into quantitative assessments of the impact on future generations. This doesn't mean that new information about the mutation process, and antimutagens in particular, is not useful. Lowering the human mutation rate would be good, even if we can't say how good. Some simple population kinetics of a change of mutation are discussed, and it is shown that future environmental changes can be ignored if we assume that the impact of a disease on human welfare is changed by the environment in the same proportion as its effect on fitness. Since the human mutation rate appears to be much higher in males than in females, it would be especially important to find ways of reducing the male rate. The role of transposable elements in determining human spontaneous mutation rates is unknown, but unless data from experimental organisms are grossly misleading, this role may be substantial. It is sometimes argued that such responses as error-prone repair systems may be an evolutionary strategy to allow the population to try a larger repertoire of mutations in times of environmental change. They may also be a survival strategy. I suggest that, although such an evolutionary strategy may possibly be adopted in asexual organisms with a very high reproductive rate, it is very unlikely in Mendelian species with limited reproduction such as most higher animals. The amount of existing variability in a large population is so great relative to that which arises in a few generations by mutation that segregation and recombination of existing alleles would appear to be a better way of coping with changing environment. As the human age of reproduction has increased in the recent evolutionary past, it is possible that the compensatory adjustment of mutation rates has not been fast enough to keep up. Perhaps evolution of mutation rates is more determined by selection to reduce somatic mutation than by selection to reduce germinal mutation. Regardless of the answer to the question of the optimum mutation rate for long-time evolution, in my view, the optimum mutation rate from the standpoint of human welfare for the foreseeable future is zero.
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For assessing the degree of population subdivision, and therefore the extent to which group selection might favor an altruistic trait, an appropriate measure is Nei's GST, defined by (F0-F)/(1-F). F0 is the probability that two alleles drawn from the same group are identical in state and F is the probability for two alleles drawn at random from the entire population. These probabilities can be assessed from molecular polymorphisms. GST has a number of properties that make it useful for empirical studies. When the mutation rate is small relative to the migration rate and the reciprocal of the group size, GST depends mainly on the absolute number of migrants per generation, moves rapidly to near equilibrium, and is independent of the number of alleles. The relative homogenizing effect of migration in the island and stepping-stone models is not as different as might be expected; one immigrant chosen randomly from the rest of the population is only one to two times as effective as one from a neighboring group, appreciably exceeding 2 only when there are 1000 or more groups. The use of molecular data to estimate the degree of population subdivision may permit testable predictions of the extent of altruistic behavior.
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Conditions for natural selection to increase a polygenic behavioral trait are derived for a model in which the population is divided into a very large number of partially isolated groups of variable and varying size. Specifically, we consider an altruistic trait that is deleterious to the individual but raises the mean fitness of the group. We assume, for each generation, that all groups have the same proportion of males, k, at the time of migration and that each group contributes Mf females and Mm males to a pool of migrants, from which Mf females and Mm males are randomly parceled out to each group. This assumption ensures that at equilibrium between random drift and a low level of migration and neglecting the small per locus effect of selection, each group has the same expected value of Wright's fixation index, FST = F. AT equilibrium, this is approximately 1/(1 + 4Me), where Me = 2kMf + 2(1 - k)Mm. The trait will increase when (b - c)/c greater than (1-F)/2F=2Me, where b is the expected benefit to the group and c is the expected cost of a unit change in the mean value of the altruistic trait. In particular, the group selection analogue of Hamilton's inequality, c/b less than r, where r is the coefficient of relationship, is obtained. The effect of isolation is enhanced if migration is mainly between adjacent groups and if group splitting is along family lines, as data on population structure of primates seem to indicate.
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