Biomedical subjects

Ian A Gardner

Publications and source records attributed to Ian A Gardner.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

PubMed2005

Immune responses during pregnancy in heifers naturally infected with Neospora caninum with and without immunization.

This study was designed to identify changes in parasite-specific immune responses that occur during vertical transmission of Neospora caninum and can be used as indicators of parasite reactivation in naturally infected heifers. Ten heifers were unimmunized and 11 immunized with killed tachyzoites. One unimmunized heifer, which aborted at week 19 of gestation, had an increase in parasite-specific antibodies, mainly IgG(2), from week 15 to week 19 and a concomitant decline in parasite-specific cell-mediated immune (CMI) responses. Eight unimmunized heifers, which had live full-term congenitally infected calves, had an increase in antibodies, mainly IgG(2), from week 21 onwards. All immunized heifers delivered live full-term congenitally infected calves, and had a bimodal increase in antibodies; primarily IgG(1) following immunization and predominantly IgG(2) from week 17 onwards. Immunized heifers had significantly greater overall mean humoral and CMI responses than unimmunized heifers. Nine uninfected control heifers and their calves were seronegative. These results indicate that reactivation of a latent infection occurred in the naturally infected heifers, regardless of their immunization status, and was associated with increased parasite-specific antibodies, mainly IgG(2).

Abortion, Veterinary↗

PubMed2005

Clams (Corbicula fluminea) as bioindicators of fecal contamination with Cryptosporidium and Giardia spp. in freshwater ecosystems in California.

This study evaluated clams as bioindicators of fecal protozoan contamination using three approaches: (i) clam tissue spiking experiments to compare several detection techniques; (ii) clam tank exposure experiments to evaluate clams that had filtered Cryptosporidium oocysts from inoculated water under a range of simulated environmental conditions; (iii) sentinel clam outplanting to assess the distribution and magnitude of fecal contamination in three riverine systems in California. Our spiking and tank experiments showed that direct fluorescent antibody (DFA), immunomagnetic separation (IMS) in combination with DFA, and PCR techniques could be used to detect Cryptosporidium in clam tissues. The most analytically sensitive technique was IMS concentration with DFA detection of oocysts in clam digestive gland tissues, which detected 10 oocysts spiked into a clam digestive gland 83% of the time. In the tank experiment, oocyst dose and clam collection time were significant predictors for detecting Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts in clams. In the wild clam study, Cryptosporidium and Giardia were detected in clams from all three study regions by IMS-DFA analysis of clam digestive glands, with significant variation by sampling year and season. The presence of C. parvum DNA in clams from riverine ecosystems was confirmed with PCR and DNA sequence analysis.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Probability of introduction of exotic strains of bluetongue virus into the US and into California through importation of infected cattle.

Strategies designed to minimize the probability of bluetongue virus (BTV) introduction to new areas should be based on a quantitative assessment of the probability of actually establishing the virus once it is introduced. The risk of introducing a new strain of bluetongue virus into a region depends on the number of viremic animals that enter and the competency of local vectors to transmit the virus. We used Monte Carlo simulation to model the probability of introducing BTV into California, USA, and the US through importation of cattle. Records of cattle and calf imports into California and the US were obtained, as was seroprevalence information from the exporting countries. A simulation model was constructed to evaluate the probability of importing either a viremic PCR-negative animal after 14-day quarantine, a c-ELISA BTV-antibody-negative animal after 28-day quarantine, or an untested viremic animal after 100-day quarantine into California and into the US. We found that for animals imported to the US, the simulated (best to worst scenarios) median percentage that tested positive for BTV-antibody ranged from 5.4 to 7.2%, while for the subset imported to California, the simulated median percentage that tested positive for BTV-antibody ranged from 20.9 to 78.9%. Using PCR, for animals imported to the US these values were 71.8-85.3%, and for those imported to California, the simulated median that test positive ranged from 74.3 to 92.4%. The probability that an imported animal was BTV-viremic is very low regardless of the scenario selected (median probability=0.0%). The probability of introducing an exotic strain of BTV into California or the US by importing infected cattle was remote, and the current Office International des Epizooties (OIE) recommendation of either a final PCR test performed 14 days after entry into quarantine, a c-ELISA performed 28 days after entry into quarantine or a 100-day quarantine with no testing requirement was adequate to protect cattle in the US and California from an exotic strain of BTV.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence inferences based on joint and sequential testing with finite population sampling.

The two-test two-population model, originally formulated by Hui and Walter, for estimation of test accuracy and prevalence estimation assumes conditionally independent tests, constant accuracy across populations and binomial sampling. The binomial assumption is incorrect if all individuals in a population e.g. child-care centre, village in Africa, or a cattle herd are sampled or if the sample size is large relative to population size. In this paper, we develop statistical methods for evaluating diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence estimation based on finite sample data in the absence of a gold standard. Moreover, two tests are often applied simultaneously for the purpose of obtaining a 'joint' testing strategy that has either higher overall sensitivity or specificity than either of the two tests considered singly. Sequential versions of such strategies are often applied in order to reduce the cost of testing. We thus discuss joint (simultaneous and sequential) testing strategies and inference for them. Using the developed methods, we analyse two real and one simulated data sets, and we compare 'hypergeometric' and 'binomial-based' inferences. Our findings indicate that the posterior standard deviations for prevalence (but not sensitivity and specificity) based on finite population sampling tend to be smaller than their counterparts for infinite population sampling. Finally, we make recommendations about how small the sample size should be relative to the population size to warrant use of the binomial model for prevalence estimation.

Agglutination Tests↗

PubMed2004

Modelling risk when binary outcomes are subject to error.

We present methods for binomial regression when the outcome is determined using the results of a single diagnostic test with imperfect sensitivity and specificity. We present our model, illustrate it with the analysis of real data, and provide an example of WinBUGS program code for performing such an analysis. Conditional means priors are used in order to allow for inclusion of prior data and expert opinion in the estimation of odds ratios, probabilities, risk ratios, risk differences, and diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity. A simple method of obtaining Bayes factors for link selection is presented. Methods are illustrated and compared with Bayesian ordinary binary regression using data from a study of the effectiveness of a smoking cessation program among pregnant women. Regression coefficient estimates are shown to change noticeably when expert prior knowledge and imperfect sensitivity and specificity are incorporated into the model.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Prevalence of antibodies against Saint Louis encephalitis and Jamestown Canyon viruses in California horses.

Jamestown Canyon (JC) and Saint Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses are mosquito-transmitted viruses that have long been present in California. The objective of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of these two viruses in horses prior to the introduction of West Nile (WN) virus. Approximately 15% of serum samples collected in 1998 from 425 horses on 44 equine operations horses throughout California had serum antibodies to JC virus, whereas antibodies were not detected to SLE virus. The results indicate that horses in California were commonly infected prior to 1998 with mosquito-transmitted Bunyaviruses that are identical or closely related to JC virus, but not with SLE virus. The different seroprevalence of SLE and JC viruses in horses likely reflects the unique ecology of each virus, and it is predicted that WN virus will have a wider distribution in California than closely related SLE virus.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Sample size calculations for surveys to substantiate freedom of populations from infectious agents.

We develop a Bayesian approach to sample size computations for surveys designed to provide evidence of freedom from a disease or from an infectious agent. A population is considered "disease-free" when the prevalence or probability of disease is less than some threshold value. Prior distributions are specified for diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity and we test the null hypothesis that the prevalence is below the threshold. Sample size computations are developed using hypergeometric sampling for finite populations and binomial sampling for infinite populations. A normal approximation is also developed. Our procedures are compared with the frequentist methods of Cameron and Baldock (1998a, Preventive Veterinary Medicine34, 1-17.) using an example of foot-and-mouth disease. User-friendly programs for sample size calculation and analysis of survey data are available at http://www.epi.ucdavis.edu/diagnostictests/.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Effects of prevalence and testing by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and fecal culture on the risk of introduction of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis-infected cows into dairy herds.

A stochastic simulation model was developed to assess the risk of introduction of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection into a dairy herd through purchase of female replacement cattle. The effects of infection prevalence in the source herd(s), number of females purchased, and testing by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) alone or ELISA and fecal culture as risk mitigation strategies were evaluated. Decisions about negative test results were made on a lot and individual basis. A hypothetical dairy herd, free from M. a. paratuberculosis, which replaced 1 lot (10, 30, or 100) of cows per year, was considered. Probability distributions were specified for the sensitivities and specificities of ELISA and fecal culture, the proportion of infected herds and within-herd prevalence for randomly selected replacement source herds (high prevalence) and herds in level 2 (medium prevalence) and level 3 (low prevalence) of the Voluntary Johne's Disease Herd Status Program (VJDHSP). Simulation results predicted that 1-56% of the lots had at least 1 M. a. paratuberculosis-infected cow. Assuming that ELISA sensitivity was 25%, simulation results showed on a lot basis that between 0.4% and 18% and between 0.1% and 9% were predicted to have at least 1 infected cow not detected by ELISA and by a combination of ELISA and fecal culture, respectively. On an individual cow basis, between 0.1% and 8.3% of ELISA-negative cattle in ELISA-positive lots were estimated to be infected. In both the lot and individual analyses, the probability of nondetection increased with larger lot sizes and greater prevalence. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the effect of a lower ELISA sensitivity (10%) was a variable decrease in mean detection probabilities for all combinations of prevalence and lot size. The benefit of testing introduced cattle with ELISA alone or in combination with fecal culture was found to be minimal if cows were purchased from known, low-prevalence (level 3) herds. The value of testing by ELISA alone or in combination with fecal culture was greatest in high-prevalence herds for all lot sizes. Testing of random-source cattle, bought as herd replacements, can partially mitigate the risk of introduction of M. a. paratuberculosis but not as well as by using low-prevalence source herds (level-3 VJDHSP), with or without testing.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Evaluation of five diagnostic methods for the detection and quantification of Myxobolus cerebralis.

Diagnostic methods were used to identify and quantify Myxobolus cerebralis, a myxozoan parasite of salmonid fish. In this study, 7-week-old, pathogen-free rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were experimentally infected with M. cerebralis and at 7 months postinfection were evaluated with 5 diagnostic assays: 1) pepsin-trypsin digest (PTD) to detect and enumerate spores found in cranial cartilage, 2) 2 different histopathology grading scales that provide a numerical score for severity of microscopic lesions in the head, 3) a conventional single-round polymerase chain reaction (PCR), 4) a nested PCR assay, and 5) a newly developed quantitative real-time TaqMan PCR. There were no significant differences (P > 0.05) among the 5 diagnostic assays in distinguishing between experimentally infected and uninfected control fish. The 2 histopathology grading scales were highly correlated (P < 0.001) for assessment of microscopic lesion severity. Quantification of parasite levels in cranial tissues using PTD and real-time TaqMan PCR was significantly correlated r = 0.540 (P < 0.001). Lastly, 104 copies of the 18S rDNA gene are present in the M. cerebralis genome, a feature that makes this gene an excellent target for PCR-based diagnostic assays. Also, 2 copies of the insulin growth factor-I gene are found in the rainbow trout genome, whose detection can serve both as an internal quality control for amplifiable DNA and as a basis to quantify pathogen genome equivalents present in quantitative PCR assays.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Evaluation and comparison of an indirect fluorescent antibody test for detection of antibodies to Sarcocystis neurona, using serum and cerebrospinal fluid of naturally and experimentally infected, and vaccinated horses.

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of the indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) using serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of horses naturally and experimentally infected with Sarcocystis neurona, to assess the correlation between serum and CSF titers, and to determine the effect of S. neurona vaccination on the diagnosis of infection. Using receiver-operating characteristic analysis, the areas under the curve for the IFAT were 0.97 (serum) and 0.99 (CSF). Sensitivity and specificity were 83.3 and 96.9% (serum, cutoff 80) and 100 and 99% (CSF, cutoff 5), respectively. Titer-specific likelihood ratios (LRs) ranged from 0.03 to 187.8 for titers between <10 and 640. Median time to conversion was 22-26 days postinfection (DPI) (serum) and 30 DPI (CSF). The correlation between serum and CSF titers was moderately strong (r = 0.6) at 30 DPI. Percentage of vaccinated antibody-positive horses ranged from 0 to 95% between 0 and 112 days after the second vaccination. Thus, the IFAT was reliable and accurate using serum and CSF. Use of LRs potentially improves clinical decision making. Correlation between serum and CSF titers affects the joint accuracy of the IFAT; therefore, the ratio of serum to CSF titers has potential diagnostic value. The S. neurona vaccine could possibly interfere with equine protozoal myeloencephalitis diagnosis.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Risk of transplacental transmission of Sarcocystis neurona and Neospora hughesi in California horses.

The study objective was to assess the risk of transplacental transmission of Sarcocystis neurona and Neospora hughesi in foals from 4 California farms during 3 foaling seasons. Serum of presuckle foals and serum and colostrum of periparturient mares were tested using indirect fluorescent antibody tests for S. neurona and N. hughesi. Serum antibody titers were < or =10 in 366 presuckle foals tested. There was no serologic or histologic evidence of either parasite in aborted fetuses or placentas examined. Positivity for S. neurona and N. hughesi in mares increased with age. Mares < or =9 yr that originated from Kentucky were 3.8 and 1.4 times more likely to be positive for S. neurona and N. hughesi, respectively, than mares from California. The strength of association between positivity to either parasite and state of birth decreased as age increased. Mares positive for S. neurona and N. hughesi were 2.2 and 1.7 times more likely, respectively, to have a previous abortion than negative mares, adjusted for age and state of birth. The annual mortality rate for mares was 4%. The annual incidence rate of equine protozoal myeloencephalitis was 0.2%. In conclusion, there was no detectable risk of transplacental transmission of S. neurona and N. hughesi. Prevalence of antibodies against both parasites in mares increased with age.

Abortion, Veterinary↗

PubMed2004

Evaluation of forelimb horseshoe characteristics of thoroughbreds racing on dirt surfaces.

OBJECTIVE: To describe forelimb horseshoe characteristics of horses racing on dirt surfaces and determine whether these characteristics vary with region of California, season, horse characteristics, and race-related factors. ANIMALS: 5,730 Thoroughbred racehorses. PROCEDURE: From June 17, 2000, to June 16, 2001, the characteristics of 1 forelimb horseshoe of horses that raced on dirt surfaces at 5 major racetracks in California were recorded. These characteristics included shoe type; toe grab height; and presence of a rim, pad, and heel traction devices (jar caulks, heel stickers, heel blocks, and special nails). Horse and race information was obtained from commercial records. One race/horse was randomly selected. RESULTS: 99% of forelimb horseshoes were aluminum racing plates, 35% had a pad, 23% had a rim, and 8% had a heel traction device. A toe grab was observed on 75% of forelimb horseshoes (14% very low [< or = 2 mm], 30% low [> 2 and < or = 4 mm], 30% regular [> 4 and < or = 6 mm], and 1% high [> 6 and < or = 8 mm]). Forelimb horseshoe characteristics varied with region of California, season, age and sex of the horse, race purse and distance, and track surface condition. Log-linear modeling revealed that all of these factors were significantly interrelated. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Complex interrelationships among forelimb horseshoe characteristics and region, season, age and sex of the horse, and race-related factors need to be considered when evaluating the relationships between injury and horseshoe characteristics in Thoroughbred racehorses.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2004

Risk of postnatal exposure to Sarcocystis neurona and Neospora hughesi in horses.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate risk of exposure and age at first exposure to Sarcocystis neurona and Neospora hughesi and time to maternal antibody decay in foals. ANIMALS: 484 Thoroughbred and Warmblood foals from 4 farms in California. PROCEDURE: Serum was collected before and after colostrum ingestion and at 3-month intervals thereafter. Samples were tested by use of the indirect fluorescent antibody test; cutoff titers were > or = 40 and > or = 160 for S neurona and N hughesi, respectively. RESULTS: Risk of exposure to S neurona and N hughesi during the study were 8.2% and 3.1%, respectively. Annual rate of exposure was 3.1% for S neurona and 1.7% for N hughesi. There was a significant difference in the risk of exposure to S neurona among farms but not in the risk of exposure to N hughesi. Median age at first exposure was 1.2 years for S neurona and 0.8 years for N hughesi. Highest prevalence of antibodies against S neurona and N hughesi was 6% and 2.1 %, respectively, at a mean age of 1.7 and 1.4 years, respectively. Median time to maternal antibody decay was 96 days for S neurona and 91 days for N hughesi. There were no clinical cases of equine protozoal myeloenchaphlitis (EPM). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Exposure to S neurona and N hughesi was low in foals between birth and 2.5 years of age. Maternally acquired antibodies may cause false-positive results for 3 or 4 months after birth, and EPM was a rare clinical disease in horses < or = 2.5 years of age.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2004

Evaluation of microbial culture of pooled fecal samples for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis in large dairy herds.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate sensitivity of microbial culture of pooled fecal samples for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) in large dairy herds and assess the use of the method for estimation of MAP prevalence. ANIMALS: 1,740 lactating cows from 29 dairy herds in California. PROCEDURE: Serum from each cow was tested by use of a commercial ELISA kit. Individual fecal samples were cultured and used to create pooled fecal samples (10 randomly selected fecal samples/pool; 6 pooled samples/herd). Sensitivity of MAP detection was compared between Herrold's egg yolk (HEY) agar and a new liquid culture method. Bayesian methods were used to estimate true prevalence of MAP-infected cows and herd sensitivity. RESULTS: Estimated sensitivity for pooled fecal samples among all herds was 0.69 (25 culture-positive pools/36 pools that were MAP positive). Sensitivity increased as the number of culture-positive samples in a pool increased. The HEY agar method detected more infected cows than the liquid culture method but had lower sensitivity for pooled fecal samples. Prevalence of MAP-infected cows was estimated to be 4% (95% probability interval, 2% to 6%) on the basis of culture of pooled fecal samples. Herd-level sensitivity estimate ranged from 90% to 100% and was dependent on prevalence in the population and the sensitivity for culture of pooled fecal samples. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Use of pooled fecal samples from 10 cows was a cost-effective tool for herd screening and may provide a good estimate of the percentage of MAP-infected cows in dairy herds with a low prevalence of MAP.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Effects of injury to the suspensory apparatus, exercise, and horseshoe characteristics on the risk of lateral condylar fracture and suspensory apparatus failure in forelimbs of thoroughbred racehorses.

OBJECTIVE: To assess concurrently the effects of moderate ligamentous suspensory apparatus injury (MLSAI), racing-speed exercise, and horseshoe characteristics on risk of catastrophic suspensory apparatus failure (SAF) or metacarpal condylar fracture (CDY) in forelimbs of racehorses. SAMPLE POPULATION: Cadavers of 301 Thoroughbred racehorses (108 with SAF, 33 with CDY and 160 control horses). PROCEDURE: A cross-sectional epidemiologic study was used to describe distributions and relationships between MLSAI, exercise, and horseshoe variables. Logistic regression was used to assess potential risk factors for developing SAF and CDY. RESULTS: Exercise variables were more highly associated with age than height of a steel bar affixed to the ground surface of the front of a horseshoe (ie, toe grab) or sex. Marginal associations were detected between MLSAI and age and height of toe grab. Higher risk for developing SAF was associated with MLSAI, use of a pad on a horseshoe, longer interval since last period of > or = 60 days without a race or timed workout (ie, layup), 2 to 5 career races, and higher intensity of recent exercise. Higher risk for developing CDY was associated with MLSAI, male horses, age between 2 and 5 years, higher intensity of recent exercise, and longer interval since layup. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Recognition of MLSAI and rehabilitation of affected horses should reduce incidence of SAF and CDY. Horses in longterm continuous training with recent high-intensity exercise are at greater risk for injury. Use of pads in horseshoes was associated with SAF, although the relationship may not be causal.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2004

Observer variation in visual assessment of forelimb horseshoe characteristics on Thoroughbred racehorses.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy and reliability of a visual method of evaluating horseshoe characteristics. ANIMALS: 1,199 Thoroughbred racehorses. PROCEDURE: Characteristics of 1 forelimb horseshoe were visually assessed on horses immediately prior to racing by 5 field observers at 5 major racetracks in California. Characteristics evaluated included horseshoe type; toe grab height; and the presence of a rim, pad, and heel traction devices. Sensitivity and specificity for observer assessment of horseshoe characteristics were calculated by comparing observer assessments to a postmortem laboratory standard for horses that died within 48 hours of a race. Intraobserver agreement was assessed in a subset of horses by comparing horseshoe observations made before and after the horse's race. Interobserver agreement was evaluated by comparing horseshoe assessment among observers who examined the same subset of horses prior to racing on select days. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of this visual method of evaluating horseshoe characteristics were good and ranged from 0.75 to 1 and 0.67 to 1, respectively. Agreement beyond chance (weighted kappa values) between observers and the laboratory standard for toe grab height was fair (0.60 to 0.62). Intraobserver and interobserver agreements (kappa values) were high (0.86 to 0.99 and 0.71 to 1, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Visual observation of horseshoes can be a feasible and reproducible method for assessing horseshoe characteristics prospectively in a large cohort of horses under racing conditions.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Comparison of the use of regulatory assays and high-performance liquid chromatography for detection of residues of ceftiofur sodium metabolites in tissue specimens of culled dairy cattle.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the results of regulatory screening and confirmation assays with those of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in the detection of ceftiofur metabolites in the tissues of culled dairy cattle. ANIMALS: 17 lactating Holstein dairy cows. PROCEDURE: Daily IM injections of ceftiofur sodium were administered at a dose of 2.2 mg of ceftiofur equivalents/kg (n = 6) or 1.0 mg of ceftiofur equivalents/kg (10) for 5 days. Following withdrawal times of 12 hours (high-dose ceftiofur) and either 5 or 10 days (low-dose ceftiofur), cows were slaughtered and liver, kidney, and diaphragmatic muscle specimens were harvested and analyzed by HPLC and standard regulatory methods that included the following assays: the swab test on premises, the fast antimicrobial screen test, the calf antibiotic and sulfa test, and the 7-plate bioassay confirmation test. RESULTS: In all tissue specimens, residues of ceftiofur and desfuroylceftiofur-related metabolites, as measured by HPLC, were less than regulatory tolerance, as defined by the FDA. False-positive screening assay results were more likely for tissue specimens that had been frozen for shipment to a federal laboratory, compared with fresh tissue specimens that were assayed at the slaughter establishment (23% vs 3% false-positive results, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The observation that fresh tissues had negative results on screening assays, whereas subsets of the same tissue specimens had false-positive results on screening assays following freezing, suggests that freezing and thawing interferes with microbial inhibition-based regulatory screening assays.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

An epidemiologic critique of current microbial risk assessment practices: the importance of prevalence and test accuracy data.

Data deficiencies are impeding the development and validation of microbial risk assessment models. One such deficiency is the failure to adjust test-based (apparent) prevalence estimates to true prevalence estimates by correcting for the imperfect accuracy of tests that are used. Such adjustments will facilitate comparability of data from different populations and from the same population over time as tests change and the unbiased quantification of effects of mitigation strategies. True prevalence can be estimated from apparent prevalence using frequentist and Bayesian methods, but the latter are more flexible and can incorporate uncertainty in test accuracy and prior prevalence data. Both approaches can be used for single or multiple populations, but the Bayesian approach can better deal with clustered data, inferences for rare events, and uncertainty in multiple variables. Examples of prevalence inferences based on results of Salmonella culture are presented. The opportunity to adjust test-based prevalence estimates is predicated on the availability of sensitivity and specificity estimates. These estimates can be obtained from studies using archived gold standard (reference) samples, by screening with the new test and follow-up of test-positive and test-negative samples with a gold standard test, and by use of latent class methods, which make no assumptions about the true status of each sampling unit. Latent class analysis can be done with maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, and an example of their use in the evaluation of tests for Toxoplasma gondii in pigs is presented. Guidelines are proposed for more transparent incorporation of test data into microbial risk assessments.

Bayes Theorem↗