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I Forgacs

Publications and source records attributed to I Forgacs.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
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A model for the long-term planning of physician workforce in Hungary.

A computer programme for the long term (25 years) projection of the physician workforce was developed. The input variables were the admittance rate of the medical schools and the unemployment rate of the active physicians, the output variables were the number of active physicians. The age and sex structure, the retirement age were taken into account. Different scenarios were made to compare the impact of the output of medical faculties and the unemployment rate of doctors on the number of active of the physicians in five years intervals for a twenty-five years period. The input of the young graduates varied between 800-600/year, the unemployment rate between 4.5% and nil. At end of the 25 years projection period the reduction of physicians was between 9.6 and 25.0%. The aim was to find a professionally acceptable, socially tolerable and politically eligible optimal relationship among the three variables.

Adult↗
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The required number of physicians: is it an optimal figure?

Apart from the developing countries in which the number of physicians is extremely low, the number of physicians in the different countries shows a wide range even if it is comparing with the GDP or even with the number of nurses. According WHO data there are more than 500 physicians/100,000 inhabitants in Cuba and in Italy; more than 400 in Belarus and Norway, or in Spain and Georgia; more than 300 in 22 countries among them Belgium, France, Germany and Greece, Sweden, Switzerland, or Bulgaria, Czech, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, etc. The number of doctors is below 300/100,000 inhabitants for example in such rich countries as the Netherlands, and the USA, and below 200 in the United Kingdom or in Japan. There is no correlation between the GDP and the number of doctors, as well as between the average life expectancy (or GBD, DALY, DALE) and the number of doctors. (On the other hand there is good correlation between GDP and life expectancy.) There is no correlation between GP-s and specialists, but it may be a weak correlation between the number of hospital beds and the number of doctors. It is difficult to find an optimal doctor/nurse ratio among the different countries; nevertheless the definition of "nurses" has a different meaning in the different countries. The burden of diseases, or the "patients" load" is also not an objective reference point, because the more the doctors, the more the patients. In the different countries there are different norms of the physicians' performances mainly decided by the health insurance funds. The different reimbursement systems, as the "per capita" at the GP-s, or the DRG at the hospital care, or the point-based remuneration at the specialist care are the real rate limiting factors for the number of physicians, which are not necessarily adequate to the professional requirements.

Developing Countries↗