Cigarette smoking was associated with an increased risk of mortality in China.
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Journal Article↗
Biomedical subjects
H Blackburn
Publications and source records attributed to H Blackburn.
Smoking is a major cause of death in China.
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Journal Article↗
Trends in cholesterol knowledge and screening and hypercholesterolemia awareness and treatment, 1980-1992. The Minnesota Heart Survey.
BACKGROUND: National cholesterol education initiatives were implemented in the middle to late 1980s. This study examines whether there were significant increases in population cholesterol knowledge and screening and hypercholesterolemia awareness and treatment from 1980 to 1992. METHODS: Three population-based surveys were conducted among adults aged 25 to 74 years in 1980-1982 (N = 4086), 1985-1987 (N = 5735) and 1990-1992 (N = 6305) in the Minneapolis-St Paul, Minn, metropolitan area as part of the Minnesota Heart Survey. Personal interviews about knowledge of cholesterol level and hypercholesterolemia awareness and treatment were conducted. Total serum cholesterol was measured; hypercholesterolemia was defined as having a total cholesterol level of 6.21 mmol/L or more (> or = 240 mg/dL) or current use of cholesterol-lowering medications. Hypercholesterolemia awareness was defined as the belief of a participant with hypercholesterolemia that her or his total cholesterol was high. RESULTS: Knowledge increased from 15% in 1980-1982 to 17% in 1985-1987 to 55% in 1990-1992 (P < .001) in women; similar trends were observed for men (19%, 22%, and 47%, respectively; P < .001). Hypercholesterolemia awareness doubled during the decade (women: 17%, 1980-1982; 24%, 1985-1987; 60%, 1990-1992; P < .001; men: 25%, 30%, and 55%, respectively; P < .001). Among participants who reported physician-diagnosed hypercholesterolemia, the prevalence of current pharmacological treatment increased from 9% in 1980-1982 to 14% in 1990-1992 in women, and from 7% to 13%, respectively, in men. CONCLUSIONS: Cholesterol knowledge and hypercholesterolemia awareness and treatment increased substantially during the 1980s, concurrent with educational initiatives of the National Cholesterol Education Program and other efforts.
Adult↗
Prognostic associations of Minnesota Code serial electrocardiographic change classification with coronary heart disease mortality in the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.
A central requirement for epidemiologic studies and clinical trials is a bias-free, objective determination of cardiac incidence rates between comparison groups. Epidemiologic studies and clinical trials frequently use changes in the Minnesota Code to document incident ischemic events. An electrocardiographic (ECG) classification system was developed to document significant ECG pattern change using objective comparison rules for side-by-side annual ECG comparison. Previously, we showed that major evolving Q waves were strongly and independently associated with total and coronary disease mortality. Using baseline-to-annual ECG comparisons in the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial, we evaluated major evolving Q waves, minor evolving Q waves combined with major evolving ST-T waves and major evolving ST-T waves alone for their prognostic associations with coronary, cardiovascular, and total mortality during 16 years of follow-up. The 16-year coronary mortality rate in men with evolving minor Q waves plus evolving ST-T waves had an average adjusted relative risk of 4, equivalent to that of a major evolving Q wave. These risk ratios held whether a clinical infarction had occurred. Silent evolving ST-T waves without Q-wave change had an average adjusted relative coronary mortality risk of 1.6. Serial comparison methodology documents additional incident ischemic ECG events beyond the traditional major Minnesota Q-code change used in older epidemiologic studies. The procedure is standardized, quantitative, and repeatable. It is applicable for any study, present or past, that used Minnesota coding. The method is also well suited for incorporation in computer analysis programs.
Adult↗
Twelve-year trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Minnesota Heart Survey. Are socioeconomic differences widening?
BACKGROUND: Inverse associations of educational level and household income (as proxy indicators of socioeconomic status) with cardiovascular disease risk factors are fairly well established. Whether differences in cardiovascular disease risk factors across education or income levels have widened in the last decade remains an issue of considerable public health importance. METHODS: Analysis by mixed-regression models of trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors, in population-based samples (n = 3334 in 1980-1982, n = 4538 in 1985-1987, and n = 4517 in 1990-1992) of Minneapolis-St Paul residents 25 to 74 years old. RESULTS: Education level was inversely related to serum cholesterol level, systolic blood pressure, smoking prevalence, and body mass index and positively related to leisure-time physical activity and health knowledge in both sexes. Household income was inversely associated with systolic blood pressure and body mass index in women and with smoking prevalence in both sexes. Income level was positively associated with leisure-time physical activity and health knowledge in both sexes. There were overall favorable downward secular trends in serum cholesterol level and systolic blood pressure, favorable upward trends in health knowledge, and unfavorable upward trends in body mass index across all socioeconomic status groups. Throughout the decade, trends in smoking prevalence differed by education level in men (P = .01), such that declines were observed only in those with a college degree or some college education. With respect to trends in leisure-time physical activity, there were greater gains among men with low socioeconomic status (P = .03 for education; P = .02 for income) and among less affluent women (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: These data support the inverse association between socioeconomic status and cardiovascular disease risk factors but suggest no widening (with the exception of smoking by education level in men) of socioeconomic differences in risk factor trends during the last decade in a representative sample of the Minneapolis-St Paul population.
Adult↗
The inverse relation of average population blood pressure and stroke mortality rates in the seven countries study: a paradox.
This study attempts to explain the unexpected finding of an inverse population (ecological) relationship between mean systolic blood pressure levels and stroke death rates in 25 years follow-up of the Seven Countries Study, a cross-cultural study of cardiovascular disease. Sixteen cohorts of all men aged 40-59 in seven countries (one cohort in the USA, two in Finland, one in the Netherlands, three in Italy, two in Croatia (former Yugoslavia), three in Serbia (former Yugoslavia), two in Greece, two in Japan) were surveyed from 1958 to 1964. Risk factors and personal characteristics were measured and follow-up for vital status and cause of death was then carried out over 25 years. Analyses were based on comparisons of mean levels of risk factors and death rates within and among the 16 cohorts. Mean entry population levels of systolic blood pressure among the cohorts were strongly and inversely related with their 25-year stroke death rates (R -0.55; CI -0.81 and -0.06; p = 0.0276). Within cohorts in contrast, the individual relation of blood pressure and stroke was strongly positive and significant in 14 of the 16 cohorts. Mean population levels of serum cholesterol were inversely and strongly related to stroke death rates (R -0.79; CI -0.92 and -0.46; p = 0.0003), while the partial correlation coefficient of systolic blood pressure, computed in models including serum cholesterol, became small and not significant (-0.05; CI -0.55 and +0.48; p = 0.8537). Age at death for stroke (average 68.9 +/- 7.1 years) was significantly higher than age at dath from myocardial infarction and sudden death (average 65.8 +/- 7.8 years) suggesting a competition effect between the conditions. Multivariate models including population average systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol provided no added explanation for the lack of direct and significant relationship of population blood pressure with stroke death rates. They were based on these variables: age at stroke death, age at myocardial infarction death or and sudden death, death rates from myocardial infarction and sudden death, the interaction term of systolic blood pressure with serum cholesterol and the multivariate coefficients for systolic blood pressure from Cox models run in individuals. Similar findings were obtained using diastolic instead of systolic blood pressure and excluding the Japanese cohorts. The paradox of the inverse ecologic relation of population blood pressure and stroke mortality and a direct relation for individual is only partly explained by the cofounding effect of population mean serum cholesterol levels. An effect of low cholesterol levels on excess stroke mortality cannot be excluded. A major limitation of the study was our inability to segregate thrombotic from heamorrhagic strokes.
Adult↗
Serum total cholesterol and risk of hospitalization, and death from respiratory disease.
BACKGROUND: In earlier studies, serum total cholesterol was inversely associated with death due to respiratory diseases. METHODS: Relationships of cholesterol with risk of respiratory diseases were examined between 1978 and 1993 in a health maintenance organization in Northern California (48,188 men, 55,276 women, about 60% white, age range 25-89). Incident and fatal endpoints were ascertained using hospital discharge diagnostic codes and underlying cause of death, respectively. RESULTS: An inverse association of cholesterol level with pneumonia/influenza hospitalization was found among men and women except that, contrary to hypothesis, a positive association was seen in women under 55 years of age. Inconsistent inverse associations were found in men, but not women, between cholesterol level and hospitalization for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Hospitalization for asthma was unrelated to cholesterol level. An inverse association existed between cholesterol level and hospitalization for miscellaneous respiratory diseases among men, but not women. Exclusion of early hospitalizations tended to attenuate risk for cholesterol level below 4.14 mmol/l, but not the risk gradient across higher cholesterol levels. For deaths, cholesterol level was statistically significantly inversely associated only with COPD. CONCLUSIONS: Cholesterol had graded inverse associations with some respiratory diseases, but not others, tending to be stronger in men than in women, and in older than in younger participants. Associations varied for hospitalizations compared to deaths. More epidemiological and basic research is needed to elucidate the potential mechanisms underlying the observed associations.
Adult↗
Changes in population cholesterol levels and coronary heart disease deaths in seven countries.
BACKGROUND: Are trends in coronary heart disease deaths based on risk factor changes? OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between trends in coronary deaths and changes in blood cholesterol in the Seven Countries Study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 years from seven countries (U.S.A., Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Croatia (former Yugoslavia), Serbia (former Yugoslavia), Greece, Japan) were units for the analyses of serum cholesterol measured at entry and after 5 and 10 years, and for mortality over 25 years. RESULTS: In the populations, the ecological relationship of mean serum cholesterol at entry to late coronary heart disease death rates during the 10- to 25-year follow-up was weak, with an R-square of 0.31. Cholesterol measurements made at year 10, and an indicator of cholesterol change during the first 10 years, increased the association (R-square, 0.49). A negative and significant interaction was shown between baseline population cholesterol levels and their 10-year change. As an indicator of acceleration in mortality, cholesterol change over 10 years was also positively correlated (partial R-square 0.44) with the ratio of 25-year to 5-year deaths. CONCLUSIONS: In the Seven Countries Study, late coronary heart disease death rates are largely "explained' by changes in blood cholesterol levels during the early phases of the study, mainly due to increases in lower cholesterol levels among some cohorts.
Adult↗
Stroke rates during the 1980s. The Minnesota Stroke Survey.
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The decline in stroke mortality it the United States may have resulted from declining incidence improved survival of stroke patients, or both. We previously reported that stroke patients who were 30 to 74 years old and were treated in Minneapolis/St Paul hospitals in 1990 survived longer than did their counterparts in 1980. In the present study, we examined trends in the rate of hospitalized stroke in Minneapolis/ St Paul between 1980 and 1990. METHODS: For 1980, 1985, and 1990, we obtained lists of discharge codes (International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision) from Minneapolis/St Paul hospitals, identified hospitalizations for acute cerebrovascular disease, and randomly selected 50% of the cases for medical record abstraction. We counted stroke events in five different ways, which were based on discharge codes as well as diagnostic criteria, and computed age adjusted stroke rates for each year. Stroke mortality in the population was computed for 1960 through 1994. RESULTS: Among men, all five measures of hospitalized stroke attack rate indicated a decline between 1980 and 1985, which ranged from 5% to > 20%. Among women, there was a sharp contrast between trends that relied on discharge codes and trends that relied on diagnostic criteria: the former indicated a decline (4% to 19%), whereas the latter indicated some increase. For the second half of the 1980s, most measures of stroke attack rate in men, all measures of stroke attack rate in women, and measures of stroke incidence in both sexes did not indicate a decline in stroke occurrence in the population. Mortality from stroke among 30- to 74-year-old residents of Minneapolis/St Paul, which declined rapidly during the 1970s and early 1980s, declined slowly, if at all, during the second half of the 1980s and early 1990s. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of stroke may have declined among 30- to 74-year-old residents of Minneapolis/St Paul in the early 1980s. However, we found little indication of such a trend between 1985 and 1990, a period of slow decline or no decline in stroke mortality in that population.
Adult↗
The relation of chronic diseases to all-cause mortality risk--the Seven Countries Study.
The relation of chronic conditions on all-cause mortality in population samples was studied based on observations from the Seven Countries Study. The objective of this work was to study the risk of death during a 15-year follow-up of middle-aged men in relation to six chronic diseases. Fifteen cohorts of men aged 50-69, totalling 8122 subjects, were examined around 1970 in seven countries: Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, Croatia (former Yugoslavia), Serbia (former Yugoslavia), Greece and Japan. Clinical diagnoses findings were made for coronary heart disease (CHD), 'other heart diseases' (OTH), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), stroke (STR), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and diabetes mellitus (DIAB). All-cause mortality was assessed in the subsequent 15 years. Death rates and relative risks were estimated from crude data, and in proportional hazards models after adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol level, cigarette smoking and body mass index. Large regional differences were found in the prevalence of the six conditions. Weak relations were found between population prevalence of each disease and population death rates for that disease. Among cohorts the relative risk of death in 15 years from any cause, adjusted for other risk factors, showed little variation among countries. Pooled relative risks, adjusted by the inverse of variance (with 95% CI) were: for CHD, 1.81 (1.60-2.06); for OTH, 1.47 (1.28-1.69); for PAD, 1.64 (1.39-1.93); for STR, 1.56 (1.23-1.98); for COPD, 1.67 (1.48-1.88); and for DIAB, 1.75 (1.43-2.15). The smallest variability of prognosis among countries was found for CHD, OTH and DIAB; the largest for PAD, STR and COPD. Despite simple clinical diagnostic procedures and large differences in prevalence, the relation of established prevalent conditions to subsequent all-cause mortality is relatively uniform among countries and across these conditions, with a relative risk of dying in 15 years usually ranging between 1.5 and 2.0.
Aged↗
Contributions of epidemiology to cardiovascular health.
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Cardiovascular Diseases↗
Community education for cardiovascular disease prevention. Morbidity and mortality results from the Minnesota Heart Health Program.
The Minnesota Heart Health Program was a community trial of cardiovascular disease prevention methods that was conducted from 1980 to 1990 in three Upper Midwestern communities with three matched comparison communities. A 5- to 6-year intervention program used community-wide and individual health education in an attempt to decrease population risk. A major hypothesis was that the incidence of validated fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease and stroke in 30- to 74-year-old men and women would decline differentially in the education communities after the health promotion program was introduced. This hypothesis was investigated using mixed-model regression. The intervention effect was modeled as a series of annual departures from a linear secular trend after a 2-year lag from the start of the intervention program. In the education communities, 2,394 cases of coronary heart disease and 818 cases of stroke occurred, with 2,526 and 739 cases, respectively, being seen in the comparison communities. The overall decline in coronary heart disease incidence was 1.8 percent per year in men (p = 0.03) and 3.6 percent per year in women (p = 0.007). For stroke, there were no significant secular trends. The authors recently published findings showing minimal effects of sustained intervention on risk factor levels. In the current report, there was no evidence of a significant intervention effect on morbidity or mortality, either for coronary heart disease or for stroke.
Adult↗
Olestra and the FDA.
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Conflict of Interest↗
Recent trends in acute coronary heart disease--mortality, morbidity, medical care, and risk factors. The Minnesota Heart Survey Investigators.
BACKGROUND: Mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) has declined in the United States since the late 1960s. To understand the reasons for the decline during the period form 1985 to 1990, we examined trends in mortality and morbidity due to CHD, medical care, and risk factors for CHD in a large metropolitan population. METHODS: We identified all deaths from CHD in residents of the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, metropolitan area who were 30 to 74 years old and classified the deaths according to whether they occurred in or out of the hospital. For 1985 and 1990, we obtained lists of patients in this age range who were discharged with a diagnosis of acute CHD from all area hospitals, and we selected the medical records of 50 percent of these patients for abstraction. Definite myocardial infarctions were identified with standardized diagnostic algorithm. The 1985 and 1990 cohorts of patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction were followed for at least three years to identify those who died from any cause. Trends in risk factors for CHD were investigated through surveys of 25-to-74-year-olds that were conducted in 1985 through 1987 and 1990 through 1992. RESULTS: Between 1985 and 1990, mortality from CHD fell by 25 percent for both men and women, and the decline in in-hospital mortality (41 percent) exceeded the decline in out-of-hospital mortality (17 percent) among men. The rates of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction declined slightly, by 5 to 10 percent, between 1985 and 1990. Survival among patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction increased substantially during that period. After adjustment for age and previous myocardial infarction, the relative risk of dying within three years of hospitalization for a myocardial infarction (for the 1990 cohort as compared with the 1985 cohort) was 0.76 for men (95 percent confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89) and 0.84 for women (95 percent confidence interval, 0.71 to 1.00). Substantial increases in the use of thrombolytic therapy, heparin, aspirin, and coronary angioplasty paralleled the survival trends. In general, the risk-factor profile of the area population with respect to CHD also improved considerably during that time. CONCLUSIONS: The recent decline in mortality due to CHD in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area can be explained by both the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population and the improved survival of patients with myocardial infarction.
Acute Disease↗
Alcohol, fish, fibre and antioxidant vitamins intake do not explain population differences in coronary heart disease mortality.
BACKGROUND: Within the Seven Countries Study data we investigated whether population differences in 25-year mortality rates from coronary heart disease could be explained by population differences in alcohol, fish, fibre and antioxidant intake. METHODS: Baseline surveys were carried out between 1958 and 1964, on 12 763 middle-aged men constituting 16 cohorts in seven countries. In 1987 and 1988 equivalent food composites representing the average food intake of each cohort at baseline were collected locally and analysed for their fibre and antioxidant content in one central laboratory. The vital status of all participants was verified at regular intervals over 25 years. RESULTS: Alcohol and fish intake were inversely related to 25-year mortality from coronary heart disease in univariate analyses. These associations became non-significant when the confounding effects of saturated fatty acids, flavonoids and smoking were taken into account. Fibre and antioxidant vitamins intake were not related to coronary heart disease mortality in either uni- or multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: These cross-cultural analyses show that alcohol, fish, fibre and antioxidant vitamins do not explain population differences in coronary heart disease mortality, independently of saturated fatty acids and flavonoids intake and cigarette smoking.
Adult↗
Twenty-five-year prediction of stroke deaths in the seven countries study: the role of blood pressure and its changes.
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This report explores the prediction of long-term stroke mortality in cohorts of the Seven Countries Study. METHODS: Sixteen cohorts of men aged 40 to 59 years at entry were examined at years 0, 5, and 10, with mortality follow-up through 25 years. RESULTS: Stroke death rates in 25 years were high in rural Serbia, Croatia, and Japan; intermediate in Italy, Greece, and urban Serbia; and low in Finland, the Netherlands, and the United States. Age and blood pressure were powerful predictors of 25-year stroke mortality in almost all cohorts and countries. Proportional hazards regression coefficients were .0232 increase in stroke death hazard per millimeter of mercury (t=14.60) for systolic blood pressure and .0409 (t=13.41) for diastolic blood pressure. Moderate blood pressure increases from low usual levels were associated with lower stroke mortality rates in years 10 to 25. Increases of blood pressure starting from high usual levels were associated with increased rates of stroke mortality. Systolic blood pressure was associated with stroke mortality at given levels of diastolic pressure, but diastolic blood pressure was not predictive of stroke mortality at given levels of systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Associations of systolic and diastolic blood pressure with stroke mortality were similar in cultures with different stroke mortality rates. Increases in blood pressure were associated with subsequent excess stroke mortality only in those who started from high usual levels; this study finds lower stroke risk in those men whose blood pressure increased moderately from low usual levels. Diastolic blood pressure is not independently associated with stroke risk in these populations.
Adult↗
Comparison of multivariate predictive power of major risk factors for coronary heart diseases in different countries: results from eight nations of the Seven Countries Study, 25-year follow-up.
BACKGROUND: It was hypothesized that among eight national groups of men aged 40-59 years enrolled in the Seven Countries Study, the multivariate coefficients of major risk factors predicting coronary heart disease mortality over 25 years would be relatively similar. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixteen cohorts were located in eight nations and pooled, comprising one cohort in the USA, two in Finland, one in the Netherlands, three in Italy, two in Croatia (former Yugoslavia), three in Serbia (Yugoslavia), two in Greece and two in Japan, for a total of over 12000 subjects at entry. Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality was defined as fatal myocardial infarction or sudden coronary death, and proportional hazard models were solved, for each country, with age, serum cholesterol level, systolic blood pressure and cigarette consumption as covariates. RESULTS: The relationships between risk factors and CHD mortality were statistically significant for all risk factors and for all countries, except for age in Croatia and Japan, cholesterol in Croatia and Japan, systolic blood pressure in Serbia and Greece, and cigarette-smoking in the Netherlands, Croatia, Serbia and Greece. When comparing all pairs of coefficients (28 comparisons for each factor) significant differences were found on four occasions for age, on six occasions for cholesterol, on no occasion for blood pressure and on four occasions for cigarette-smoking. Other tests suggested a substantial homogeneity among multivariate coefficients. Estimates for pooled coefficients were: age, in years, 0.0570 (95% confidence limits 0.0465 and 0.0673); relative risk for 5 years 1.33 (95% confidence limits 1.26 and 1.40); serum cholesterol level in mg/dl, 0.0057 (95% confidence limits 0.0045 and 0.0069); relative risk for 40 mg/dl 1.31 (95% confidence limits 1.20 and 1.31); systolic blood pressure in mmHg, 0.0160, (95% confidence limits 0.0134 and 0.0185), relative risk for 20 mmHg 1.38 (95% confidence limits 1.31 and 1.45); cigarettes per day, 0.0220 (95% confidence limits 0.0170 and 0.0272); relative risk for 10 cigarettes per day 1.25 (95% confidence limits 1.18 and 1.31). CONCLUSIONS: Great similarities were found in the multivariate coefficients of major coronary risk factors to CHD risk derived from population samples varying in CHD frequency.
Adult↗
Serum total cholesterol and long-term coronary heart disease mortality in different cultures. Twenty-five-year follow-up of the seven countries study.
OBJECTIVE: To compare the relationship between serum total cholesterol and long-term mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in different cultures. DESIGN: Total cholesterol was measured at baseline (1958 through 1964) and at 5- and 10-year follow-up in 12,467 men aged 40 through 59 years in 16 cohorts located in seven countries: five European countries, the United States, and Japan. To increase statistical power six cohorts were formed, based on similarities in culture and cholesterol changes during the first 10 years of follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risks (RRs), estimated with Cox proportional hazards (survival) analysis, for 25-year CHD mortality for cholesterol quartiles and per 0.50-mmol/L (20-mg/dL) cholesterol increase. Adjustment was made for age, smoking, and systolic blood pressure. RESULTS: The age-standardized CHD mortality rates in the six cohorts ranged from 3% to 20%. The RRs for the highest compared with the lowest cholesterol quartile ranged from 1.5 to 2.3, except for Japan's RR of 1.1. For a cholesterol level of around 5.45 mmol/L (210 mg/dL), CHD mortality rates varied from 4% to 5% in Japan and Mediterranean Southern Europe to about 15% in Northern Europe. However, the relative increase in CHD mortality due to a given cholesterol increase was similar in all cultures except Japan. Using a linear approximation, a 0.50-mmol/L (20-mg/dL) increase in total cholesterol corresponded to an increase in CHD mortality risk of 12%, which became an increase in mortality risk of 17% when adjusted for regression dilution bias. CONCLUSION: Across cultures, cholesterol is linearly related to CHD mortality, and the relative increase in CHD mortality rates with a given cholesterol increase is the same. The large difference in absolute CHD mortality rates at a given cholesterol level, however, indicates that other factors, such as diet, that are typical for cultures with a low CHD risk are also important with respect to primary prevention.
Adult↗