Biomedical subjects

Freddie Bray

Publications and source records attributed to Freddie Bray.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Time trends in the registration of Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphomas in Europe.

Lymphoma incidence is reported to be increasing globally. If real, these trends can only be explained by an increasing exposure to risk(s) as yet unknown. There have been numerous coding and classification changes over time and greater access to ever more sensitive diagnostic tests. It is important to understand the consequences that these changes, coupled with general improvements in cancer registration, have had on observed temporal trends. Trends in the registration rates of both non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) in Europe are presented. Age-adjusted and age-specific rates are described in men and women in 13 European countries according to both period of diagnosis and year of birth. Age, period and cohort effects are modelled. Overall, there are increases in the numbers of NHL registrations made with a corresponding decrease in HL. In recent history, however, there is a suggestion that the rate of increase is less and stable.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Chapter 2: The burden of HPV-related cancers.

On the basis of current evidence regarding human papillomavirus (HPV) and cancer, this chapter provides estimates of the global burden of HPV-related cancers, and the proportion that are actually "caused" by infection with HPV types, and therefore potentially preventable. We also present trends in incidence and mortality of these cancers in the past, and consider their likely future evolution.

Female↗

PubMed2006

Trends in testicular cancer incidence and mortality in 22 European countries: continuing increases in incidence and declines in mortality.

This study profiles testicular cancer incidence and mortality across Europe, and the effects of age, period and generational influences, using age-period-cohort modeling. Despite a 5-fold variation in incidence rates, there were consistent mean increases in incidence in each of the 12 European countries studied, ranging from around 6% per annum (Spain and Slovenia) to 1-2% (Norway). In contrast, declines in testicular cancer mortality of 3-6% per annum were observed in the 1980s and 1990s for the majority of the 22 countries studied, particularly in Northern and Western Europe. The mortality trends in several European countries were rather stable (Romania and Bulgaria) or increasing (Portugal and Croatia). Short-term attenuations in increasing cohort-specific risk of incidence were indicated among men born between 1940 and 1945 in 7 European countries. In Switzerland, successive generations born from the mid 1960s may have experienced a steadily declining risk of disease occurrence. While the underlying risk factors responsible remain elusive, the temporal and geographical variability in incidence may point to an epidemic in different phases in different countries-the result of country-specific differences in the prevalence of one or several ubiquitous and highly prevalent environmental determinants of the disease. Advances in treatment have led to major declines in mortality in many European countries from the mid 1970s, which has translated to cohorts of men at successively lower risk of death from the disease. Slower progress in the delivery of optimal care is however evident from the mortality trends in several lower-resource countries in Southern and Eastern Europe. The first beneficiaries of therapy in these populations may be those men born--rather than diagnosed--in the era of major breakthrough in testicular cancer care.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Interpreting the international trends in testicular seminoma and nonseminoma incidence.

There are considerable geographic, ethnic and temporal variations in the global incidence of testicular cancer. The disease mainly affects Western populations, with average rates in developed areas of the world six times higher than those in developing areas. About 500,000 new cases were diagnosed worldwide in 2002, with the vast majority being germ cell tumors and occurring in young adult males. Traditionally, these tumors are further classified into seminoma and nonseminoma. In this Review, trends in the incidence of germ cell tumors are examined using high-quality cancer-registry data from 41 populations within 14 countries worldwide. To assess whether trends of seminoma and nonseminoma incidence are similar, data were analyzed by birth cohort. These analyses should reveal similar trends if the 10-year difference in the clinical manifestation of cancer between subtypes is caused by differences in the speed of progression from the same early rate-limiting step to the onset of symptomatic disease. In each country, incidence has uniformly increased in successive generations born from around 1920 until very recently. Cohort-specific trends in seminoma incidence are similar to cohort-specific trends in nonseminoma incidence, lending support to the conclusion that the subtypes are epidemiologically and etiologically comparable. The findings presented are related to current theories and evidence regarding the determinants of testicular germ cell cancer.

Cohort Effect↗

PubMed2006

Predicting the future burden of cancer.

As observations in the past do not necessarily hold into the future, predicting future cancer occurrence is fraught with uncertainty. Nevertheless, predictions can aid health planners in allocating resources and allow scientists to explore the consequence of interventions aimed at reducing the impact of cancer. Simple statistical models have been refined over the past few decades and often provide reasonable predictions when applied to recent trends. Intrinsic to their interpretation, however, is an understanding of the forces that drive time trends. We explain how and why cancer predictions are made, with examples to illustrate the concepts in practice.

Cost of Illness↗

PubMed2006

Do testicular seminoma and nonseminoma share the same etiology? Evidence from an age-period-cohort analysis of incidence trends in eight European countries.

The incidence of the two main clinical subentities of testicular germ cell cancer (seminoma and nonseminoma) is increasing throughout Europe. Most studies have revealed little variation in risk factors between the two subtypes. This study compared generation-specific trends in eight European countries, hypothesizing that similar temporal pattern by birth cohort implied that seminoma and nonseminoma had a largely comparable etiology. The results are presented using the age-period-cohort model and the nonidentifiability problem highlighted by partitioning the age, period, and cohort effects in terms of their linear and curvature component parts, assuming a priori that cohort effects predominated. Despite uniform overall increases by calendar period, declining rates of nonseminoma but not pure seminoma were observed in the majority of countries during the 1990s. The subtype trends were, however, largely analogous on a birth cohort scale. Notable observations were a decline in rates of both subtypes among recent birth cohorts in Switzerland and a short-term wartime effect in several countries, involving an attenuation of increasing risk of both subtypes in men born in 1940 to 1945. Departures from the steady increases in testicular cancer over time were likely to occur for nonseminomas some years ahead of seminoma on a period scale. The importance of birth cohort coincided with the view that given a short time interval of susceptibility to exposures earlier in life and a biologically constant time to diagnosis, all temporal changes in rate-limiting exposures should appear as generational effects. Trends in seminoma and nonseminoma conform to largely the same temporal patterns on this scale, implying that they share important etiologic factors.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

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Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

International lung cancer trends by histologic type: male:female differences diminishing and adenocarcinoma rates rising.

Lung cancer rates have peaked among men in many areas of the world, but rates among women continue to rise. Most lung cancers are squamous cell carcinoma, small cell carcinoma, or adenocarcinoma; trends vary according to type. We compiled population-based morphology-specific incidence data from registries contributing to the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) databases. Unspecified cancers and carcinomas were reallocated based on a registry, time period, sex and age group-specific basis. Where available, data from several registries within a country were pooled for analysis. Rates per 100,000 person-years for 1980-1982 to 1995-1997 were age-adjusted by the direct method using the world standard. Squamous cell carcinoma rates among males declined 30% or more in North America and some European countries while changing less dramatically in other areas; small cell carcinoma rates decreased less rapidly. Squamous and small cell carcinoma rates among females generally rose, with the increases especially pronounced in the Netherlands and Norway. In contrast, adenocarcinoma rates rose among males and females in virtually all areas, with the increases among males exceeding 50% in many areas of Europe; among females, rates also rose rapidly and more than doubled in Norway, Italy and France. Rates of all lung cancer types among women and adenocarcinoma among men continue to rise despite declining cigarette use in many Western countries and shifts to filtered/low-tar cigarettes. Renewed efforts toward cessation and prevention are mandatory to curb the prevalence of cigarette smoking and to reduce lung cancer rates eventually.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed2005

Geographic and temporal variations in cancer of the corpus uteri: incidence and mortality in pre- and postmenopausal women in Europe.

Corpus uteri cancer is the fourth most common neoplasm in women in Europe and the tenth most common cause of cancer death. We examined geographic and temporal variations in corpus uteri cancer incidence and mortality rates in the age groups 25-49 and 50-74 in 22 European countries. The disease is considerably less common in premenopausal women, with incidence and mortality rates decreasing throughout Europe and mortality declines more marked in western and southern European countries. Incidence rates among postmenopausal women are highest in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden and Slovenia and lowest in France and the United Kingdom. Increasing incidence trends in this age group are observed in the Nordic countries (except Denmark) and in the United Kingdom. Some increases are also seen in eastern (Slovakia) and southern Europe (Spain and Slovenia), while relatively stable or modestly decreasing trends are observed in Italy and most western European countries. Postmenopausal mortality rates are systematically higher in eastern Europe, with death rates in the Ukraine, Latvia, Czech Republic, Russia and Belarus 2-3 times those seen in western Europe. Declining mortality trends are seen in most populations, though in certain Eastern European countries, the declines began rather recently, during the 1980s. In Belarus and Russia, recent postmenopausal death rates are stable or increasing. The rates are adjusted for misclassification of uterine cancer deaths but remain unadjusted for hysterectomy, and where there is an apparent levelling off of incidence or mortality rates recently, rising prevalence of hysterectomy cannot be discounted as an explanation. However, the trends by age group can be viewed in light of several established risk factors for endometrial cancer that are highly prevalent and most likely changing with time. These are discussed, as are the prospects for preventing the disease.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Ovarian cancer in Europe: Cross-sectional trends in incidence and mortality in 28 countries, 1953-2000.

We have considered trends in incidence and mortality in 28 European countries using incidence data from successive volumes of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and mortality from the WHO database. Countries with the highest rates in the early 1960s included the Nordic countries, Austria, Germany and the United Kingdom, but trends in these areas have tended to decline over recent calendar periods, particularly with regard to mortality. Southern European countries showed upward trends, at least until the early 1980s for France and Italy. Likewise, in most central and eastern European countries, ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates were originally relatively low, but tended to rise over time. Falls in mortality, but not in incidence, over recent years were observed in the Czech Republic and Hungary. In several countries, mainly in northern Europe, trends were more favorable at younger age (25-49 years) than in the subsequent age groups. Thus, recent trends in ovarian cancer have led to a leveling of rates across various areas of the continent, although a 2.5-fold variation was still observed in the late 1990s between the highest mortality rate of 9.3/100,000 in Denmark and the lowest one of 3.6 in Portugal. These patterns should be viewed in the light of an observed reduction in parity, mainly in southern and eastern Europe, and the spread of oral contraceptive use, mainly in northern Europe, since these are the best recognized protective factors with regard to ovarian carcinogenesis. The declining mortality trends can also in part be ascribed to improvements in treatment.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2005

Trends in cervical squamous cell carcinoma incidence in 13 European countries: changing risk and the effects of screening.

Despite there being sufficient evidence for the effectiveness of screening by cytology in preventing cancer of the cervix uteri, screening policies vary widely among European countries, and incidence is increasing in younger women. This study analyzes trends in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix uteri in 13 European countries to evaluate effectiveness of screening against a background of changing risk. Age-period-cohort models were fitted and period and cohort effects were estimated; these were considered as primarily indicative of screening interventions and changing etiology, respectively. A unique set of estimates was derived by fixing age slopes to one of several plausible age curves under the assumption that the relation between age and cervical cancer incidence is biologically determined. There were period-specific declines in cervical SCC in several countries, with the largest decreases seen in northern Europe. A pattern emerged across Europe of escalating risk in successive generations born after 1930. In the western European countries, a decrease followed by a stabilization of risk by cohort was accompanied by period-specific declines. In southern Europe, stable period, but increasing cohort trends, were observed. Substantial changes have occurred in cervical SCC incidence in Europe and well-organized screening programs have been highly effective in reducing the incidence of cervical SCC. Screening and changing sexual mores largely explain the changing period- and cohort-specific patterns, respectively. The increasing risk in recent cohorts is of obvious concern particularly in countries where no screening programs are in place. Further investigation of the effectiveness of opportunistic screening is warranted as is the observation of differing risk patterns in young cohorts in countries with relatively similar societal structures.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Endometrial cancer incidence trends in Europe: underlying determinants and prospects for prevention.

More than one in 20 female cancers in Europe are of the endometrium. Surveillance of incidence rates is imperative given the rapidly changing profile in the prevalence and distribution of the underlying determinants. This study presents an analysis of observed and age-period-cohort-modeled trends in 13 European countries. There were increasing trends among postmenopausal women in many Northern and Western countries. Denmark and possibly France and Switzerland were exceptions, with decreasing trends in postmenopausal women. In premenopausal and perimenopausal women, declines were observed in Northern and Western Europe, most evidently in Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, affecting consecutive generations born after 1925. These contrast with the increasing trends regardless of menopausal age in some Southern and Eastern European countries, particularly Slovakia and Slovenia. These observations provide evidence of changes in several established risk factors over time and have implications for possible primary prevention strategies. In postmenopausal women, changes in reproductive behavior and prevalence of overweight and obesity may partially account for the observed increases, as well as hormone replacement therapy use in certain countries. Combined oral contraceptive use may be responsible for the declines observed among women aged <55 years. Whereas there are some prospects for chemoprevention in premenopausal women as oral contraceptive use becomes more widespread in Europe, increases in obesity and decreases in fertility imply that endometrial cancer in postmenopausal women will become a more substantial public health problem in the future.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Incidence trends of adenocarcinoma of the cervix in 13 European countries.

Rapid increases in cervical adenocarcinoma incidence have been observed in Western countries in recent decades. Postulated explanations include an increasing specificity of subtype-the capability to diagnose the disease, an inability of cytologic screening to reduce adenocarcinoma, and heterogeneity in cofactors related to persistent human papillomavirus infection. This study examines the possible contribution of these factors in relation with trends observed in Europe. Age-period-cohort models were fitted to cervical adenocarcinoma incidence trends in women ages <75 in 13 European countries. Age-adjusted adenocarcinoma incidence rates increased throughout Europe, the rate of increase ranging from around 0.5% per annum in Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland to >/=3% in Finland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The increases first affected generations born in the early 1930s through the mid-1940s, with risk invariably higher in women born in the mid-1960s relative to those born 20 years earlier. The magnitude of this risk ratio varied considerably from around 7 in Slovenia to almost unity in France. Declines in period-specific risk were observed in United Kingdom, Denmark, and Sweden, primarily among women ages >30. Whereas increasing specificity of subtype with time may be responsible for some of the increases in several countries, the changing distribution and prevalence of persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus types, alongside an inability to detect cervical adenocarcinoma within screening programs, would accord with the temporal profile observed in Europe. The homogeneity of trends in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in birth cohort is consistent with the notion that they share a similar etiology irrespective of the differential capability of screen detection. Screening may have had at least some impact in reducing cervical adenocarcinoma incidence in several countries during the 1990s.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed2004

Increasing mortality rates of common malignancies in Colombia: an emerging problem.

BACKGROUND: As a result of a major social and demographic transition, Colombia is currently undergoing major changes in disease-specific mortality rates, including an increasing burden of cancer death. The current article described some aspects of the evolution of cancer mortality in Colombia and, in particular, highlighted the trends for the most common causes of cancer death in Colombia. METHODS: Cancer deaths registered in the national mortality database from 1981-1996 were used to obtain age-standardized mortality rates by gender and site using the world standard population. The estimated annual percentage change was obtained by fitting a simple log-linear model to the rates in the last decade of recorded data, to gauge recent and near-future cancer mortality trends. RESULTS: Between 1987 and 1996, the most common causes of cancer death were gastric carcinoma (17% of all cancer deaths), followed by lung (10.5%), prostate (6.2%), cervical (6%), and colorectal carcinoma (5.4%). There were observed declines in mortality trends noted in both genders for gastric carcinoma. Trends in lung carcinoma appeared to be reaching a plateau among men, but increased among women. There were apparent increases in rates of death from colorectal carcinoma for both genders, and from prostate carcinoma for men. Cervical carcinoma appeared to be increasing moderately. CONCLUSIONS: The authors reported that mortality rates from the most common malignancies are increasing, indicating that effective strategies for cancer control need to be put into immediate practice. To monitor and evaluate future trends, the provision of high-quality data also needs to be addressed.

Colombia↗

PubMed2004

The changing global patterns of female breast cancer incidence and mortality.

One in ten of all new cancers diagnosed worldwide each year is a cancer of the female breast, and it is the most common cancer in women in both developing and developed areas. It is also the principal cause of death from cancer among women globally. We review the descriptive epidemiology of the disease, focusing on some of the key elements of the geographical and temporal variations in incidence and mortality in each world region. The observations are discussed in the context of the numerous aetiological factors, as well as the impact of screening and advances in treatment and disease management in high-resource settings.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

Lung cancer mortality patterns in selected Central, Eastern and Southern European countries.

Significant changes in the prevalence of tobacco smoking have been observed in many European countries. EU candidate countries have also experienced major changes with respect to tobacco smoking, which have resulted in changes in the frequency of lung cancer. In men in the majority of these countries, a reduction of mortality rates has been observed recently, while in Hungary and Poland a deceleration of mortality increase was observed in the 1990s. The situation is much less favorable in females, where in the majority of countries a continuous increase of mortality rates has been observed, the only exceptions being Latvia, Lithuania and, to a lesser extent, Estonia. In Hungarian women, an acceleration of the increase rate was observed in the 1980s and 1990s (compared with the 1970s). Patterns of lung cancer mortality in analyzed countries are somewhat similar to those observed in EU member states. Recent analyses of time trends of lung cancer in EU countries showed, in general, a decreasing risk in the majority of male populations and an increase in several countries in women. If the decrease of mortality is to be achieved and maintained in the longer term, efforts have to be focused on young generations (entering adulthood now or in the near future). Despite all the difficulties present in reducing tobacco smoking in youth, it seems that one of the most important ways to reduce the future lung cancer burden in current and new EU member states is to strengthen efforts toward changing smoking attitudes in young generations.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Lung cancer in Europe in 2000: epidemiology, prevention, and early detection.

Lung cancer is the most common cancer in the world. In men, the highest incidence rates are seen in Europe (especially eastern Europe) and North America. In women, high incidence rates are found in North America and in Europe, particularly in northern and western Europe. It is estimated that there were about 375000 cases of lung cancer in Europe in 2000; 303000 in men and 72000 in women. The number of resulting deaths was about 347000 (280000 in men and 67000 in women). Tobacco smoking is well established as the main cause of lung cancer and about 90% of cases are thought to be tobacco related. There is a clear dose-response relation between lung-cancer risk and the number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and age at initiation of smoking. Someone who has smoked all their life has a lung-cancer risk 20-30 times greater than a non-smoker. However, risk of lung cancer decreases with time since smoking cessation. Recently, there has been renewed interest in screening because spiral computerised tomography can detect small asymptomatic lesions more effectively than conventional radiography. Although cure rates for such lesions are very good, there is to date no evidence for effectiveness of mass-screening strategies.

Chemoprevention↗

PubMed2003

Pleural mesothelioma incidence in Europe: evidence of some deceleration in the increasing trends.

OBJECTIVE: To summarize the geographical and temporal variations in incidence of pleural mesothelioma in Europe, using the extensive data available from European general cancer registries, and consider these in light of recent trends in asbestos extraction, use and import in European countries. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data were extracted from the European Cancer Incidence and Mortality database (EUROCIM). The inclusion criteria was acceptance in Volume VII of Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Truncated age-standardized rates per 100,000 for the ages 40-74 were used to summarise recent geographical variations. Standardized rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the periods 1986-1990 and 1991-1995 were compared to assess geographical variations in risk. To investigate changes in the magnitude of most recent trends, regression models fitted to the latest available 10-year period (1988-1997) were compared with trends in the previous decade. Fitted rates in younger (40-64) and older adults (65-74) in the most recent period were also compared. RESULTS: There was a great deal of geographical variation in the risk of mesothelioma, annual rates ranging from around 8 per 100,000 in Scotland, England and The Netherlands, to lower than 1 per 100,000 in Spain (0.96), Estonia (0.85), Poland (0.85) and Yugoslavia, Vojvodina (0.56) among men. The rank of the rates for women was similar to that observed for men, although rates were considerably lower. Between 1978 and 1987, rates in men significantly increased in all countries (excepting Denmark). In the following 10 years, there was a deceleration in trend, and a significant increase was detectable only in England and France. In addition, the magnitude of recent trends in younger men was generally lower than those estimated for older men, in both national and regional cancer registry settings. CONCLUSIONS: While mesothelioma incidence rates are still rising in Europe, a deceleration has started in some countries. A decrease may begin in the next few years in certain European populations considering the deceleration of observed trends in mesothelioma and asbestos exposure, as well as the recent ban on its use.

Asbestos↗