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E Massad

Publications and source records attributed to E Massad.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Threshold conditions for a non-autonomous epidemic system describing the population dynamics of dengue.

A non-autonomous dynamical system, in which the seasonal variation of a mosquito vector population is modeled, is proposed to investigate dengue overwintering. A time-dependent threshold, R(t), is deduced such that when its yearly average, denoted by R, is less than 1, the disease does not invade the populations and when R is greater than 1 it does. By not invading the population we mean that the number of infected individuals always decrease in subsequent seasons of transmission. Using the same threshold, all the qualitative features of the resulting epidemic can be understood. Our model suggests that trans-ovarial infection in the mosquitoes facilitates dengue overwintering. We also explain the delay between the peak in the mosquitoes population and the peak in dengue cases.

Aedes↗
PubMed2006

The impact of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of HIV virulence.

A theoretical framework is proposed on which some hypotheses related to the impact of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of HIV virulence can be tested. For this, a linear increase of risk behaviour with vaccine efficacy is assumed. This is based on the hypothesis that people are prone to relax preventive measures by knowing that they and their partners are vaccinated and that this effect is more intense the more effective the vaccine is known to be. An additional, and perhaps more important hypothesis is related to the theoretical possibility that increased risk behaviour of some vaccinated individuals in partially protected populations could act as a selective pressure toward more virulent HIV strains. Those hypotheses were tested by a mathematical model that considers three different HIV strains competing against each other in a population partially protected by imperfect vaccines of distinct efficacies. Simulations of the model demonstrated that, under the above hypotheses, there is a shift in HIV virulence towards more aggressive strains with increase in vaccine efficacy, associated with a marked reduction in the total amount of transmission and, consequently, in the prevalence of HIV. Potential ways for further testing the theory/model and the implications of the results are discussed.

AIDS Vaccines↗
PubMed2005

Liver transplantation: waiting list dynamics in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

São Paulo is the first Brazilian state to perform liver transplantation in 1968. Since then the recipient waiting list has increased; now approximately 150 new cases per month are referred to the single list at the central organ procurement organization. Official data have shown 37.3 monthly deaths on the waiting list in the state of São Paulo. The number of liver transplants has increased after the creation of São Paulo transplant notification centers but are insufficient to deal with the increasing waiting list. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the performance of our state liver transplantation program and analyze when the number of liver transplantations will meet our waiting list demand.

Brazil↗
PubMed2005

Experimental rabies infection in haematophagous bats Desmodus rotundus.

In order to determine the susceptibility and serum neutralizing antibody response of Desmodus rotundus to rabies virus, bats were inoculated with a virus isolated from a naturally infected haematophagous bat. Bats were divided into four groups of 10 animals each. Dilutions of rabies virus containing 100, 1000, 10,000 and 100,000 MICLD50 (lethal dose 50% for mice inoculated by the intracerebral route) were administrated in the pectoral muscle. The presence of rabies virus was detected in brain and salivary glands by fluorescent antibody, mouse inoculation and RT-PCR. The observed mortality for each virus dose was 0, 20, 20 and 60% respectively. Serum neutralizing antibodies were tested for by the rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test, and antibody titres greater than 0.5 IU/ml were found in 53% of bats 30 days after virus inoculation. Resistance to infection was seen in bats that developed low or no detectable antibody response as well as in bats with high titres. Among the 10 bats that died of rabies, eight showed signs of paralytic rabies and two bats showed no clinical signs.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Age-specific seroprevalence to an immunodominant Cryptosporidium sporozoite antigen in a Brazilian population.

The seroepidemiology of Cryptosporidium infection was investigated in a representative sample of a normal population in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil using a recombinant form of the immunodominant 27-kDa sporozoite antigen. IgG seropositivity was low in infants following loss of maternal antibody but quickly increased to approximately 60% by 5 years, then 80% by the age of 10 years, after which prevalence remained constant. The broad range of antibody concentrations is consistent with previous reports that the IgG response to C. parvum is short-lived. There is also evidence that average antibody concentrations increase with age. Results suggest that the recombinant antigen may be a more sensitive method of measuring seroprevalence than the native antigen in Western blot. Although cross-sectional studies can provide an insight into the epidemiology of C. parvum in normal populations, further studies investigating the dynamics of the humoral immune responses to Cryptosporidium and the use of serology in epidemiological studies are required.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Brain mappings of the arithmetic processing in children and adults.

Despite the increasing number of experimental mapping showing that human arithmetic cognition is supported by widely spread neural circuits; the theoretical reasoning about these data remains mostly metaphorical and guided by a connectionist approach. Although neurons at distinct areas in the brain are assumed to take charge of different duties in the solution of the experimental task, the results are always discussed by hypothesizing some association between the different areas without questioning any difference of behavior at the level of the neurons at each of these areas. Here, the brain is assumed as Distributed Intelligent Processing System (DIPS) formed by collections of loosely interacting specialized agents (neurons), each agent specializing, for example, in data collection (sensors), problem solving (associative neurons), data communication (interneuronal systems) and in acting upon the surrounding environment (motorneurons). A new technique for EEG brain mapping is proposed and used to study arithmetic cognition in elementary school aged children and adults. Factor analysis showed three distinct patterns of neuronal recruitment for arithmetic calculations in all experimental groups which varied according to the type of calculation, age and sex.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

The vulnerability of Brazilian female prisoners to HIV infection.

The purpose of the present study was to determine the vulnerability of women in prison to HIV infection. The study was carried out from August to October 2000 in a São Paulo State Penitentiary, where 299 female prisoners were serving time. We interviewed and obtained a blood sample from 290 females who agreed to enter the study. Sera were tested for the presence of antibodies to HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and syphilis and the odds ratio (OR) was calculated for variables related to HIV positivity on the basis of a questionnaire. The overall prevalence data were: 13.9% for HIV (37 of 267), 22.8% for syphilis (66 of 290), and 16.2% for HCV (47 of 290). Sexual partnership variables were significantly related to HIV infection. These included HIV-positive partners (OR = 7.36, P = 0.0001), casual partners (OR = 8.96, P = 0.009), injectable drug user partners (OR = 4.7, P = 0.0001), and history of sexually transmitted disease (OR = 2.07, P = 0.05). In addition, a relationship was detected between HIV infection and drug use (OR = 2.48, P = 0.04) and injectable drug use (OR = 4.2, P = 0.002). Even women with only one partner presented a significant OR for HIV infection (OR = 2.57, P = 0.009), reflecting their vulnerability due to their trust in their partner, who did not use a condom. Although the use of injectable substances is associated with HIV infection, our results point to sexual behavior as the most important component of HIV transmission in the female prisoner population.

Brazil↗
PubMed2004

Malaria vaccines: lessons from field trials.

Malaria vaccine candidates have already been tested and new trials are being carried out. We present a brief description of specific issues of validity that are relevant when assessing vaccine efficacy in the field and illustrate how the application of these principles might improve our interpretation of the data being gathered in actual malaria vaccine field trials. Our discussion assumes that vaccine evaluation shares the same general principles of validity with epidemiologic causal inference, i.e., the process of drawing inferences from epidemiologic data aiming at the identification of causes of diseases. Judicious exercise of these principles indicates that, for meaningful interpretation, measures of vaccine efficacy require definitions based upon arguments conditional on the amount of exposure to infection, and specification of the initial and final states in which one believes the effect of interest takes place.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2004

The Eyam plague revisited: did the village isolation change transmission from fleas to pulmonary?

Back in the 17th century the Derbyshire village of Eyam fell victim to the Black Death, which is thought to have arrived from London in some old clothes brought by a travelling tailor. The village population was 350 at the commencement of plague, of which only 83 survived. Led by the church leaders, the village community realized that the whole surrounding region was at risk from the epidemic, and therefore decided to seal themselves off from the other surrounding villages. In the first 275 days of the outbreak, transmission was predominantly from infected fleas to susceptible humans. From then onward, mortality sharply increased, which indicates a changing in transmission pattern. We hypothesize that the confinement facilitated the spread of the infection by increasing the contact rate through direct transmission among humans. This would be more consistent with pulmonary plague, a deadlier form of the disease. In order to test the above hypothesis we designed a mathematical model for plague dynamics, incorporating both the indirect (fleas-rats-humans) and direct (human-to-human) transmissions of the infection. Our results show remarkable agreement between data and the model, lending support to our hypotheses. The Eyam plague episode is celebrated as a remarkable act of collective self-sacrifice. However, to the best of our knowledge, there were no evidence before that the confinement actually increased the burden payed by the commoners. In the light of our results, it can be said that the hypothesis that confinement facilitated the spread of the infection by increasing the contact rate through direct transmission is plausible.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Can the human brain do quantum computing?

The electrical membrane properties have been the key issues in the understanding of the cerebral physiology for more than almost two centuries. But, molecular neurobiology has now discovered that biochemical transactions play an important role in neuronal computations. Quantum computing (QC) is becoming a reality both from the theoretical point of view as well as from practical applications. Quantum mechanics is the most accurate description at atomic level and it lies behind all chemistry that provides the basis for biology ... maybe the magic of entanglement is also crucial for life. The purpose of the present paper is to discuss the dendrite spine as a quantum computing device, taking into account what is known about the physiology of the glutamate receptors and the cascade of biochemical transactions triggered by the glutamate binding to these receptors.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2003

Vaccination against rubella: analysis of the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact patterns.

In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a very specific vaccination program in a previously nonvaccinated population where rubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for the age-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters that can be estimated from the force of infection in a steady state prior to the vaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which are compared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patterns among members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission of rubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of the theory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for four communities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland, and the United Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according to the distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence of vaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not very efficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This gives support to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al., accepted and implemented by the government of the State of São Paulo, Brazil.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2002

Malnutrition and susceptibility to enteroparasites: reinfection rates after mass chemotherapy.

The evidence that relates malnutrition to enteroparasite infections arises from studies that demonstrate the improvement of nutritional indicators after antiparasitism treatment. However, the role of malnutrition as an aggravating factor to the susceptibility to enteroparasite infections is still not fully understood. We investigated the correlation between malnutrition and enteroparasite infection after mass chemotherapy, in a poor city of São Paulo State, Brazil. The sample comprised 759 children between 1 and 10 years of age of whom 585 were followed up for a period of 1 year and periodically assessed for reinfection with enteroparasites. One year of follow-up after mass chemotherapy demonstrated that 38 of the undernourished children were reinfected with enteroparasites, as compared with 25 of the eutrophic children (P = 0.033). The survival multivariate analysis demonstrated that, after controlling for the potential confounding variables, maternal literacy and per capita income rate, malnutrition was associated with susceptibility to reinfection (P = 0.13). We demonstrate that, although maternal literacy and per capita income rate are indeed confounding variables, malnutrition contributes to an increase in the risk of enteroparasite infections.

Antiparasitic Agents↗
PubMed2001

Optimal age for vaccination against measles in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, taking into account the mother's serostatus.

In order to investigate if the changing levels of measles antibody in women resulting from extensive vaccination programs influence the susceptibility of children, we measured the seroprevalence of measles virus antibody of children in the first year of life and of their mothers. We compared maternal antibody decay of two groups of children: those whose mothers were 25 years old or more (mothers born in the pre-vaccination era), and less than 25 years old (mothers born in the vaccination era). Therefore, the 25-year-age cut-off was chosen to distinguish between vaccinated and non-vaccinated mothers. We also compared the immunogenicity of measles vaccine in children from 6 to 12 months of age, in these two groups and also according to their mother's serostatus. The optimal age of vaccination for a routine program was estimated by means of mathematical models. This study was carried out in a sample of 1216 mothers and their respective children. Our results indicate that the optimal age for vaccination of the whole sample was 15 months, 17 months for children born from older mothers, 14 months for children born from younger mothers, 17 months for children born from seropositive mothers and 12 months for children born from seronegative mothers. Therefore, a change to an earlier age of routine vaccination is not justified by our results.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

Modelling the natural history of HIV infection in individuals and its epidemiological implications.

The variation of viraemia in the natural course of HIV infection is expected to have major influence on the probability of transmission and, consequently, on the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. In this paper we propose a model which takes into account the time evolution of HIV viraemia (measured as HIV-RNA copies per ml of blood) in an infected individual and its impact on the threshold for the establishment of an endemic level, and mainly on the relative contribution of each of the clinical phases of the infection to the total transmission of HIV per infected individual. We consider that an infected individual passes through three phases of viraemia. The first phase, which lasts for 6-7 weeks, is characterized by very high viraemia. In the second phase, which lasts about 10 years, the viraemia is much lower, increasing again in the last phase, which lasts up to two years, and ends in full-blown AIDS. We show that the relative contribution of each phase to the total transmission of HIV is very sensitive to the model we assume for the dependence of the transmissibility of HIV on the viral load. For instance, if we assume that transmissibility is proportional to the decimal logarithm of viraemia, then the second phase predominates always. Due to the epidemiological importance of this fact, it is clear that further improvement on virological research to better understand the dependence of HIV transmissibility on the viral concentration in biological fluids is necessary.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2001

A mixed ectoparasite--microparasite model for bat-transmitted rabies.

This paper considers the transmission of rabies to domestic livestock by vampire bats. Vampire bats act as ectoparasites on cattle both by ingesting a small amount of blood every night and by prolonging bleeding by the action of anticoagulant substances in their saliva. In addition to this parasitic action bats may also transmit rabies, inflicting important losses on affected herds by the inevitable mortality due to the infection. We modeled this complex interaction and we also demonstrate that bat control measures are more effective in reducing rabies prevalence and mortality by rabies than cattle vaccination.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Varicella transmission in two samples of children with different social behaviour in the State of São Paulo, Brazil.

In order to establish the differences in transmission pattern of varicella-zoster virus (VZV), a comparative seroepidemiological study was carried out in two different children samples. Children aged 1-11 years, were randomly selected from state schools of São Paulo city, Brazil. Individuals aged 1-15 years were sampled by cluster from Caieiras city. Children aged 3 years or under from Caieiras were not attending school, while those from São Paulo were attending all-day nurseries or kindergarten. The presence of antibodies to VZV was analysed by ELISA technique. The force of infection and contact rate were determined by mathematical techniques. The average age of first infection was 2.87 +/- 0.14 years and 4.07 +/- 0.47 years for Sao Paulo and Caieiras, respectively. The average force of infection estimated was 0.29 year(-1) for São Paulo and was 0.26 year(-1) for Caieiras. The proportion of seropositivity and the force of infection were higher in São Paulo school children up to 3 years of age compared with Caieiras children, where the social contact starts later. In conclusion, social changes affecting contact among children may influence varicella epidemiology.

Antibodies, Viral↗
PubMed2001

Cytomegalovirus seroepidemiology in an urban community of São Paulo, Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: After the era of rubella vaccine, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is one of the most frequently causes of mental retardation and congenital deafness. Seroepidemiological studies are necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease. The purpose of the study was to quantify the transmission rate of CMV disease in a community in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Using ELISA test (IgG), a retrospective serological survey looking for CMV antibodies was performed in an non-immunized community. Frozen sera from 443 individuals, randomly selected by cluster sampling technique in the town of Caieiras, São Paulo, were collected from November 1990 to January 1991. Seroprevalence was stratified by age (0-40 years). Mathematical techniques were applied to determine the age-dependent decay function of maternal antibodies during the first year of life, the age-dependent seroprevalence function and the force of infection for CMV in this community. RESULTS: It was observed a descending phase of seropositivity in the first 9 months, but changes in antibody titration were observed between 8 months old and one year of age. The average age of the first infection was 5.02 months of age and 19.84 years, when the age-dependent seroprevalence and the force of infection were analyzed between 10 months of age and 10 years of age and from 10 to 40 years old, respectively. CONCLUSION: CMV infection is highly prevalent among the population studied and infection occurs in the first year of life. This study shows that most women at reproductive age are vulnerable to the first infection, increasing the risk for congenital infection.

Adolescent↗