Simple way to estimate the median time and compare survival distributions in analgesic trials under informative censoring [letter].
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to E Marubini.
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BACKGROUND: Fenretinide (4-HPR) is a synthetic retinoid being clinically tested in the chemoprevention of different tumors and precancerous lesions. Though safer than many other retinoids in experimental models, in humans 4-HPR may induce adverse effects that mainly affect the eye and visual function. Such effects are thought to be caused by the reduction of plasma retinol levels, which occurs after administration of the retinoid. METHODS: A series of 826 women treated with 4-HPR was studied to quantify the incidence and temporal pattern of occurrence of visual (dark adaptation) and ophthalmologic complaints (ocular dryness, lacrimation, conjunctivitis or photophobia) and to investigate the possible association between their occurrence and plasma retinol levels. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of visual complaints reached nearly 20% at 5 years. The occurrence of these symptoms was more frequent at the start of treatment. The probability of developing visual complaints was significantly higher in patients with lower plasma retinol concentrations following 4-HPR treatment. The cumulative incidence of ophthalmologic complaints was 8% at 5 years. The occurrence of these complaints was evenly distributed during treatment. Ophthalmologic complaints were not associated with a greater degree of reduction of plasma retinol concentrations, but rather with the patient's age, since symptomatic patients were generally older than asymptomatic patients. CONCLUSIONS: Visual and ophthalmologic complaints are common during 4-HPR treatment; their estimated 5-year cumulative incidence is close to 20% and 8%, respectively. However, the pattern of occurrence over time and the underlying mechanisms of these two types of complaints seem different.
The Fenretinide (4-HPR) Breast Cancer Study is a randomized multicenter clinical trial originally designed and conducted by the investigators of the Istituto Nazionale Tumori of Milan. The study is sponsored by the National Cancer Institute of Bethesda and by the Italian National Research Council. The trial was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the synthetic retinoid 4-HPR, at a dose of 200 mg per os every day for 5 years, in reducing the incidence of contralateral breast cancer in a population of patients previously operated on for breast cancer. Between 1987 and 1993, the Istituto Nazionale Tumori of Milan and 9 other collaborating Centers enrolled 2,972 women between the ages of 30 and 70 years who had been previously operated on for T1-T2 N- M0 breast cancer. This paper describes the rationale, design, methodology, organization, data management, statistics and accrual of the participating population.
This paper describes the accrual of the controlled clinical trial with fenretinide for the prevention of contralateral breast cancer. Accrual screened 4,030 potentially eligible patients of whom 1,815 were randomized. Two strategies of recruitment were used, i.e. retrospective and prospective. In the retrospective accrual, the medical staff reviewed the records of breast cancer patients who had received curative surgery to select those who fulfilled the eligibility criteria of the study. For the prospective recruitment operated, patients were contacted after the beginning of the trial. The study started in March 1987 and accrual closed on July 31, 1993. The planned accrual period was extended by 19 months. The yearly accrual tended to decrease with time. This was mainly due to the end of the retrospective recruitment and to the introduction of adjuvant chemotherapy, a reason for exclusion from the trial, also for patients with negative axillary nodes. The known accrual difficulties of chemoprevention studies proved also to be true for the high-risk population of this trial.
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Biomarker analysis and evaluation in oncology is the product of a number of processes (including managerial, technical and interpretation steps) which need to be monitored and controlled to prevent and correct errors and guarantee a satisfactory level of quality. Several biomarkers have recently moved to clinical validation studies and successively to clinical practice without any definition of standard procedures and/or quality control (QC) schemes necessary to guarantee the reproducibility of the laboratory information. In Italy several national scientific societies and single researchers have activated -- often on a pilot level -- specific external quality assessment protocols, thereby potentially jeopardizing the clinical reality even further. In view of the seriousness of the problem, in 1998 the Italian Ministry of Health sponsored a National Survey Project to coordinate and standardize the procedures and to develop QC programs for the analysis of cancer biomarkers of potential clinical relevance. Twelve QC programs focused on biomarkers and concerning morphological, immunohistochemical, biochemical, molecular, and immunoenzymatic assays were coordinated and implemented. Specifically, external QC programs for the analytical phase of immunohistochemical p53, Bcl-2, c-erb-2/neu/HER2, and microvessel density determination, of morphological evaluation of tumor differentiation grade, and of molecular p53 analysis were activated for the first time within the project. Several hundreds of Italian laboratories took part in these QC programs, the results of which are available on the web site of the Network (www.cqlaboncologico.it). Financial support from the Italian Government and the National Research Council (CNR) will guarantee the pursuit of activities that will be extended to new biomarkers, to preanalytical phases of the assays, and to revision of the criteria of clinical usefulness for evaluating the cost/benefit ratio.
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Besides the application of conventional qualitative PCR as a valuable tool to enrich or identify specific sequences of nucleic acids, a new revolutionary technique for quantitative PCR determination has been introduced recently. It is based on real-time detection of PCR products revealed as a homogeneous accumulating signal generated by specific dyes. However, as far as we know, the influence of the variability of this technique on the reliability of the quantitative assay has not been thoroughly investigated. A national program of external quality assurance (EQA) for real-time PCR determination involving 42 Italian laboratories has been developed to assess the analytical performance of real-time PCR procedures. Participants were asked to perform a conventional experiment based on the use of an external reference curve (standard curve) for real-time detection of three cDNA samples with different concentrations of a specific target. In this paper the main analytical features of the standard curve have been investigated in an attempt to produce statistical diagnostics emerging from external quality control. Specific control charts were drawn to help biochemists take technical decisions aimed at improving the performance of their laboratories. Overall, our results indicated a subset of seven laboratories whose performance appeared to be markedly outside the limits for at least one of the standard curve features investigated. Our findings suggest the usefulness of the approach presented here for monitoring the heterogeneity of results produced by different laboratories and for selecting those laboratories that need technical advice on their performance.
In current clinical practice for breast cancer patients, estrogen (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) concentrations, quantified by the dextran-coated charcoal assay, are categorized by an arbitrary cutoff into a negative or positive status. However, although the results obtained with this approach are easy to interpret, such a representation could oversimplify the relationship between ER and PgR content and patient outcome and imply an assumption of monotonicity, which is generally expected but rarely proven. We evaluated the relationship between ER and PgR content (considered on a continuous scale) and clinical outcome, using a flexible statistical model, in a group of postmenopausal patients with N-positive operable tumors who were submitted to surgery and different adjuvant treatments (tamoxifen or CMF). Univariate analysis indicated that in the tamoxifen-treated group, ER level, number of metastatic nodes (pN) and age, but not PgR, were significant indicators of clinical outcome (p = 0.032, p = 0.021 and p = 0.029, respectively). Multivariate analysis indicated that in this group of patients there was no interaction between variables, and in the final model for disease-free survival (DFS) only ER and pN were retained with an overall predictive ability of the regression model of 0.723, as evaluated by Harrell's c. However, pN markedly contributed to the predictive ability of the model with respect to ER, since a marked decrease in Harrell's c statistic (c = 0.582) was observed when pN was removed from the model. In the CMF-treated group, only pN affected clinical outcome. When the estimated DFS curves obtained from the final Cox regression models were plotted according to four values of ER (in the tamoxifen-treated group) or three values of pN (in the CMF-treated group) we observed that in the tamoxifen-treated group patients with an ER concentration equal to 0 fmol/mg cytosol protein had the worst prognosis, whereas a marked improvement of the expected DFS was observed for patients with a low but detectable ER level (generally classified as ER-negative because falling below the conventional cutoff value of 10 fmol/mg cytosol protein). Our results seem to suggest that the use of steroid receptor concentrations on a continuous scale, instead of dichotomous "status", is to be preferred in the choice of adequate therapeutic strategies.
Urinary androstanediol measurement, often in association with other androgens, is commonly used to support the clinical diagnosis of idiopathic hirsutism. In addition, androgen excess has been shown to be the endocrine abnormality which characterizes patients with breast cancer. We recently developed a method for the measurement of urinary testosterone employing solid-phase extraction and HPLC purification before quantitative measurement by gas chromatography. In the present report we verify the feasibility of the method for the simultaneous measurement of 5 alpha-androstane-3 alpha,17 beta-diol and 5 beta-androstane-3 alpha,17 beta-diol in addition to testosterone in the same urine sample. The mean recovery for the whole procedure was 89.8% for 5 alpha-androstane-3 alpha,17 beta-diol and 87.8% for 5 beta-androstane-3 alpha, 17 beta-diol. The estimates of the coefficients of variation were 4.9% (95% confidence limits: 3.9-6.5%) and 3.9% (95% confidence limits: 3.1-5.2%), respectively. Accuracy was evaluated by standard addition and dilution assays and a linear relationship was found between expected and observed values (r2 = 0.997 for 5 alpha-androstane-3 alpha,17 beta-diol and r2 = 0.999 for 5 beta-androstane-3 alpha,17 beta-diol). The method is rapid, effective and suitable for the measurement of testosterone, 5 alpha-androstanediol and 5 beta-androstanediol in the same urine sample.
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The aim of the present article is to introduce and discuss the problem of optimal modelling of the prognostic information provided by putative prognostic variables, possibly measured on a quantitative scale. A number of methodological aspects will be treated, with particular reference to the role of spline functions and artificial neural networks, which will be discussed in the context of the analysis of survival data. The problem of the evaluation and the choice of the optimal statistical models will be examined, with particular attention to the critical aspects related to the definition of prognostic indexes on the basis of the results of the selected models. Clinical examples in breast cancer on the evaluation of the prognostic impact of several tumor markers are provided. This paper is addressed to all researchers who are interested in the evaluation of the prognostic role of tumor markers, therefore we will stress the necessity of integrating the methodologies of biological, clinical and statistical research in the assessment of prognosis.
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