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E Gouws

Publications and source records attributed to E Gouws.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

National population based HIV prevalence surveys in sub-Saharan Africa: results and implications for HIV and AIDS estimates.

BACKGROUND: Sentinel surveillance among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) has been the main source of information on HIV trends in sub-Saharan Africa. These data have also been used to generate national HIV and AIDS estimates. New technologies and resources have allowed many countries to conduct national population based surveys that include HIV prevalence measurement, as an additional source of information on the AIDS epidemic. METHODS: The authors reviewed the reports of 20 national population based surveys from 19 countries carried out in sub-Saharan Africa since 2001. They examined the sampling methodology, HIV testing and response rates, and female:male and urban:rural prevalence ratios. They also constructed adjusted prevalence scenarios assuming different relative risks for survey non-responders. RESULTS: The national population based surveys vary considerably in quality, as reflected in the household response rate (ranging from 75.4% to 99.7%), women's testing rate (ranging from 68.2% to 97.3%), and men's testing rate (ranging from 62.2% to 95.4%), while for some surveys detailed response information is lacking. While 95% confidence intervals around the female:male and urban:rural prevalence ratios in individual countries are large, the median female:male ratio of the combined set of surveys results is 1.5 and the median urban:rural ratio 1.7. A scenario assuming that non-responders have twice the HIV prevalence of those who fully participated in the survey suggests that individual non-response could result in an adjusted HIV prevalence 1.03 to 1.34 times higher than the observed prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Population based surveys can provide useful information on HIV prevalence levels and distribution. This information is being used to improve national HIV and AIDS estimates. Further refinements in data collection, analysis, and reporting, combined with high participation rates, can further improve HIV and AIDS estimates at national and regional level.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Short term estimates of adult HIV incidence by mode of transmission: Kenya and Thailand as examples.

OBJECTIVE: Patterns of transmission of HIV are different among different regions of the world and change over time within regions. In order to adapt prevention strategies to changing patterns of risk, we need to understand the behaviours that put people at risk of infection and how new infections are distributed among risk groups. METHODS: A model is described to calculate the expected incidence of HIV infections in the adult population by mode of exposure using the current distribution of prevalent infections and the patterns of risk within different populations. For illustration the model is applied to Thailand and Kenya. RESULTS: New infections in Kenya were mainly transmitted through heterosexual contact (90%), while a small but significant number were related to injecting drug use (4.8%) and men who have sex with men (4.5%). In Thailand, the epidemic has spread over time to the sexual partners of vulnerable groups and in 2005 the majority of new infections occurred among the low risk heterosexual population (43%). Men having sex with men accounted for 21% and sex work (including sex workers, clients, and partners of clients) for 18% of new infections. Medical interventions did not contribute significantly to new infections in either Kenya or Thailand. CONCLUSIONS: The model provides a simple tool to inform the planning of effective, appropriately targeted, country specific intervention programmes. However, better surveillance systems are needed in countries to obtain more reliable biological and behavioural data in order to improve the estimates of incidence by risk group.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

The 2005 Workbook: an improved tool for estimating HIV prevalence in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.

OBJECTIVE: This paper describes improvements and updates to an established approach to making epidemiological estimates of HIV prevalence in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. METHODS: The structure of the software used to make estimates is briefly described, with particular attention to changes and improvements. DISCUSSION: The approach focuses on identifying populations which, through their behaviour, are at high risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Major changes in the software focus on the move away from short term projections and towards developing an epidemiological curve that more accurately represents the change in prevalence of HIV over time. The software continues to provide an output file for use in the Spectrum software so as to estimate the demographic impact of HIV infection at country level.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Improved plausibility bounds about the 2005 HIV and AIDS estimates.

BACKGROUND: Since 1998 the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and the World Health Organization has provided estimates on the magnitude of the HIV epidemic for individual countries. Starting with the 2003 estimates, plausibility bounds about the estimates were also reported. The bounds are intended to serve as a guide as to what reasonable or plausible ranges are for the uncertainty in HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality. METHODS: Plausibility bounds were developed for three situations: for countries with generalised epidemics, for countries with low level or concentrated epidemics (LLC), and for regions. The techniques used build on those developed for the previous reporting round. However the current bounds are based on the available surveillance and survey data from each individual country rather than on data from a few prototypical countries. RESULTS: The uncertainty around the HIV estimates depends on the quality of the surveillance system in the country. Countries with population based HIV seroprevalence surveys have the tightest plausibility bounds (average relative range about the adult HIV prevalence (ARR) of -18% to +19%.) Generalised epidemic countries without a survey have the next tightest ranges (average ARR of -46% to +59%). Those LLC countries which have conducted multiple surveys over time for HIV among the populations most at risk have the bounds similar to those in generalised epidemic countries (ARR -40% to +67%). As the number and quality of the studies in LLC countries goes down, the plausibility bounds increase (ARR of -38% to +102% for countries with medium quality data and ARR of -53% to +183% for countries with poor quality data). The plausibility bounds for regions directly reflect the bounds for the countries in those regions. CONCLUSIONS: Although scientific, the plausibility bounds do not represent and should not be interpreted as formal statistical confidence intervals. However in order to make the bounds as meaningful as possible the authors have tried to apply reasonable statistical approaches and assumptions to their derivation. An understanding of the uncertainty in the HIV estimates may help policy makers take better informed decisions to address the epidemic in their respective countries.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Quality of care for under-fives in first-level health facilities in one district of Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: The multi-country evaluation of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) effectiveness, cost and impact (MCE) is a global evaluation to determine the impact of IMCI on health outcomes and its cost-effectiveness. MCE studies are under way in Bangladesh, Brazil, Peru, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania. The objective of this analysis from the Bangladesh MCE study was to describe the quality of care delivered to sick children under 5 years old in first-level government health facilities, to inform government planning of child health programmes. METHODS: Generic MCE Health Facility Survey tools were adapted, translated and pre-tested. Medical doctors trained in IMCI and these tools conducted the survey in all 19 health facilities in the study areas. The data were collected using observations, exit interviews, inventories and interviews with facility providers. FINDINGS: Few of the sick children seeking care at these facilities were fully assessed or correctly treated, and almost none of their caregivers were advised on how to continue the care of the child at home. Over one-third of the sick children whose care was observed were managed by lower-level workers who were significantly more likely than higher-level workers to classify the sick child correctly and to provide correct information on home care to the caregiver. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate an urgent need for interventions to improve the quality of care provided for sick children in first-level facilities in Bangladesh, and suggest that including lower-level workers as targets for IMCI case-management training may be beneficial. The findings suggest that the IMCI strategy offers a promising set of interventions to address the child health service problems in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh↗
PubMed2004

Hookworm (Necator americanus) transmission in inland areas of sandy soils in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

This study extended the association between hookworm transmission in KwaZulu-Natal and the sandy coastal plain by investigating the parasite's occurrence in isolated areas of sandy soils further inland. A school-based prevalence survey was carried out in selected inland sandy areas and in surrounding areas dominated by clay soils within a narrow altitudinal range of between 500 and 700 m to reduce the effect of altitude on climate-related factors (rainfall and temperature). Sandy areas situated on the coastal plain were included in the analysis for comparative purposes. Soil samples (0-50 mm depth) were collected from each locality to assess their nematode loadings and to analyse selected physical and chemical properties. Significant differences were found between the moderate prevalence of hookworm infection among children living in inland areas with sandy soils (17.3%) and the low prevalence in surrounding non-sandy areas (5.3%, P < 0.001), and between infection among children living in all inland areas (9.3%) and the high prevalence on the coastal plain (62.5%, P < 0.001). Amounts of fine and medium sand were highest in both the coastal plain soils and in inland sandy areas and these fractions showed a significant positive correlation with hookworm prevalence and nematode loadings. Clay, coarse sand and organic matter contents were highest in surrounding non-sandy soils and showed a significant negative correlation with the nematode variables. No statistically significant correlations were found with soil pH at study localities. We conclude that properties of inland sandy soils, particularly particle size distribution, correlate well with hookworm prevalence and nematode loadings and therefore provide a more suitable habitat for nematodes than surrounding non-sandy areas. These results suggest that particle size distribution of sand fractions, organic matter and clay content in the soil influence the survival of hookworm larvae and hence the parasite's transmission.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

The effect of soil type and climate on hookworm (Necator americanus) distribution in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

We investigated environmental factors influencing the distribution of hookworm infection in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Prevalence data were sourced from previous studies and additional surveys carried out to supplement the database. When geo-referenced the data revealed that higher prevalences are limited to areas below 150 m above sea level, and low prevalences to areas above this altitude. Using univariate analysis we investigated the differences in environmental factors in the two areas. The relationship between hookworm prevalence, altitude and climate-derived variables was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient, and that of soil type using the t-test. Multivariate analysis was used to determine environmental factors that combine best to provide favourable conditions for hookworm distribution. The results revealed that areas 150 m above sea level, i.e. inland, supported low mean hookworm prevalences (x = 6, n = 21), and were characterized by soils with a clay content of more than 45%, variable temperatures and moderate rainfall. Hookworm prevalence also decreased southwards as temperatures became slightly cooler, rainfall remained more-or-less constant and the coastal plain narrowed. In the multivariate model prevalence was most significantly correlated with the mean daily minimum temperature for January followed by the mean number of rainy days for January. This indicates the importance of summer conditions in the transmission of hookworm infection in KwaZulu-Natal and suggests that transmission may be seasonal.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

High incidence of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in South African Indians: a 10-year follow-up study.

AIMS: Previous cross-sectional studies have established that South African Indians have a high prevalence of Type 2 diabetes mellitus. A prospective community study was undertaken to determine the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and the risk factors associated with its development in a cohort of South African Indians who had been studied 10 years previously. METHODS: This is a report on 563 subjects who participated both at baseline and at the 10-year follow-up study. In the baseline study, 2479 subjects (> 15 years) were studied; using 1985 World Health Organization criteria for glucose tolerance based on 75 g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT), the crude prevalence of diabetes mellitus (Diabetes) was 9.8% and of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) 5.8% (age and sex-adjusted prevalence 13% and 6.9%, respectively). RESULTS: At the 10-year follow-up study, 563 of the subjects who could be traced consented to a repeat OGTT; of these, 91 (16.2%) were classified as Diabetes and 41 (7.3%) as IGT. Of the subjects who did not have diabetes at baseline (n = 517), 49 (9.5%) progressed to diabetes (PTD) and 40 (7.7%) had IGT. The crude cumulative incidence of diabetes was 9.5% (rate of progression 0.95% per annum; incidence density 9.5/1000 person years) with an age and sex-adjusted cumulative incidence of 8.3% (rate of progression 0.95% per annum; incidence density 8.3/1000 person years). Examination of risk factors predictive of subsequent diabetes development was undertaken by analysis of baseline (year 0) variables in the 517 subjects who did not have diabetes at baseline. In multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, the significant predictive risk factors for future diabetes included 2-h post load plasma glucose (2 PG) (P < 0.0001, odds ratio (OR) 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-2.1), body mass index (BMI) (P < 0.006, OR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.3) and obesity (P < 0.01, OR 4.6, 95% CI 1.4-14.7). CONCLUSIONS: This long-term study has shown that in South African Indians there is a high incidence of Type 2 diabetes, and in this population significant predictors include higher baseline blood glucose, BMI and obesity.

Asia↗
PubMed2003

Risk factors for HIV infection among women in Carletonville, South Africa: migration, demography and sexually transmitted diseases.

We investigate the prevalence of, and risk factors for, HIV infection among women in an urban South African setting. A random sample of 834 women was recruited into a community-based cross-sectional study. HIV prevalence was 37.1% with higher prevalence among migrant women (46.0%) than non-migrant women (34.7%), (odds ratio [OR]=1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11-2.31). The highest HIV prevalence (50.9%) was between ages 26 and 35 years. Having two or more lifetime partners increased the risk of HIV infection (OR=4.88, 95% CI: 3.01-7.89). Migration, age, marital status, alcohol use, syphilis and gonorrhoea were independently associated with HIV infection. Migration increases the risk of HIV infection. Provision of services to treat sexually transmitted diseases and educational empowerment programmes that will promote safer sex among migrant women are urgently needed.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

The epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus in South Africa.

We review the epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa where the prevalence of HIV infection is among the highest in the world. The epidemic reached South Africa relatively recently but the prevalence of infection has increased rapidly and there are significant differences among provinces. Although few 15-year-old people are infected the prevalence increases rapidly with age thereafter, especially among women. The prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 exceeds that of HIV and curable sexually transmitted infections are common. 'Circular migration' may help to explain the high rates and rapid spread of HIV in the region. The incidence of tuberculosis has increased dramatically as a result of the HIV epidemic. Antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of vertical transmission has been shown to be effective in local conditions but transmission through breast-feeding remains problematical. While some epidemiological models have been developed, much more needs to be done in this regard in order to plan, coordinate and evaluate an effective response to the epidemic. We conclude by discussing some of the research that is needed and steps that could be taken to reduce the continued spread of the infection.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations.

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

HIV infection among youth in a South African mining town is associated with herpes simplex virus-2 seropositivity and sexual behaviour.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the seroprevalence of HIV and herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) by age and gender among young people aged 14--24 years in a South African town and to identify risk factors for HIV infection. DESIGN: A community-based, cross-sectional study was conducted on a random sample of men (n = 723) and women (n = 784) living in a township in the Carletonville district of South Africa. METHODS: Potential demographic and behavioural risk factors associated with HIV were recorded by questionnaire and biological tests were performed on serum and urine. Data analysis was performed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Among men and women the prevalence of HIV infection was 9.4 and 34.4%, respectively, and of positive HSV-2 serology was 17.0 and 53.3%, respectively. Among 24-year-old women the prevalence of HIV was 66.7% [95% confidence interval (CI), 54.6--77.3%]. HSV-2 seropositivity was a strong independent risk factor for HIV infection with odds ratios of 5.3 (95% CI, 2.7--10.3) for men and 8.4 (95% CI, 4.9--14.2) for women. There was no independent effect of age at first sex or serological markers of other sexually transmitted infections on HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection among young women increases rapidly after the onset of sexual activity and reaches extremely high levels by 24 years of age. These findings suggest that rates of HIV transmission from men to women are high and that HSV-2 plays a major role in the spread of HIV in this population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Growth in early childhood in a cohort of children born to HIV-1-infected women from Durban, South Africa.

This study describes growth in a cohort of black South African children born to HIV-1-infected women in Durban. Children born to HIV-1-seropositive women were followed up from birth to early childhood. At birth and at each visit, growth parameters were measured. Mean Z-scores were calculated for weight-for-length, weight-for-age and length-for-age and, if they were low, the children were regarded as wasted, malnourished or stunted, respectively. At the end of the study, there were 48 infected and 93 uninfected children. There were no significant differences between the two groups at birth. Thereafter, the infected group was found to have early and sustained low mean Z-scores for length-for-age and weight-for-age but not for weight-for-length. The means reached significance at ages 3, 6 and 12 months for length and at 3, 6 and 9 months for weight. Infected children who died early had more severe stunting, wasting and malnutrition than infected children who survived. Infected children born to HIV-positive women have early and sustained stunting and are malnourished but not wasted. Children with rapidly progressive disease have both stunting and wasting and are more severely affected. Early nutritional intervention might help prevent early progression or death in HIV-infected children, particularly in developing countries without access to anti-retroviral therapy in state hospitals.

Anthropometry↗
PubMed2001

Craniotomy improves outcomes for cranial subdural empyemas: computed tomography-era experience with 699 patients.

OBJECTIVE: Uncertainty regarding the best surgical management for subdural empyemas (SDEs) continues. Our unit has considered craniotomy the preferred method of surgical drainage for all cranial SDEs since 1988. We performed an analysis of our previously published, computed tomography-era, experience with 699 patients. METHODS: Two analyses of the database (1983-1997) were performed. First, analysis of the periods from 1983 to 1987 and from 1988 to 1997 was performed. Second, analysis of the composite database was performed. Outcomes were compared for possible outcome predictors by univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was used to identify variables that contributed independently to outcomes, using stepwise discriminant analysis. RESULTS: Significant correlations between the analyzed periods with respect to outcome and type of surgery (P = 0.001) were noted. Analysis of the entire database (1983-1997) revealed a significant relationship between outcome and surgery type (P = 0.05). Pairwise comparison of limited procedures such as burr holes or craniectomies with wide-exposure surgical procedures such as primary craniotomies or procedures proceeding to full craniotomies indicated significant correlation with outcomes (P = 0.027). Reoperation and morbidity rates were increased with limited procedures. Stepwise discriminant analyses revealed that the type of surgery was correlated with outcomes (P = 0.0008, partial r(2) = 0.034). CONCLUSION: Craniotomy was determined to be the surgical procedure of choice for treatment of cranial SDEs, allowing complete evacuation of the pus and, more importantly, decompressing the underlying cerebral hemisphere. Limited procedures such as burr holes or craniectomies may be performed for patients in septic shock, for patients with parafalcine empyemas, or for children with SDEs secondary to meningitis.

Craniotomy↗
PubMed2001

Effect of removing user fees on attendance for curative and preventive primary health care services in rural South Africa.

User fees are used to recover costs and discourage unnecessary attendance at primary care clinics in many developing countries. In South Africa, user fees for children aged under 6 years and pregnant women were removed in 1994, and in 1997 all user fees at all primary health care clinics were abolished. The intention of these policy changes was to improve access to health services for previously disadvantaged communities. We investigated the impact of these changes on clinic attendance patterns in Hlabisa health district. Average quarterly new registrations and total attendances for preventive services (antenatal care, immunization, growth monitoring) and curative services (treatment of ailments) at a mobile primary health care unit were studied from 1992 to 1998. Regression analysis was undertaken to assess whether trends were statistically significant. There was a sustained increase in new registrations (P = 0.0001) and total attendances (P = 0.0001) for curative services, and a fall in new registrations (P = 0.01) and total attendances for immunization and growth monitoring (P = 0.0002) over the study period. The upturn in demand for curative services started at the time of the first policy change. The decreases in antenatal registrations (P = 0.07) and attendances (P = 0.09) were not statistically significant. The number of new registrations for immunization and growth monitoring increased following the first policy change but declined thereafter. We found no evidence that the second policy change influenced underlying trends. The removal of user fees improved access to curative services but this may have happened at the expense of some preventive services. Governments should remain vigilant about the effects of new health policies in order to ensure that objectives are being met.

Ambulatory Care Facilities↗
PubMed2001

Microvascular complications in South African patients with long-duration diabetes mellitus.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of microvascular complications in South African black and Indian patients with long-duration diabetes mellitus (DM). DESIGN: A retrospective analysis was undertaken of clinical records of 219 DM patients (132 black, 87 Indian) with long-duration DM (over 10 years) attending a diabetes clinic in Durban. Data recorded on each subject included demographic details (age, gender, ethnic group, type of diabetes, age of onset and duration of diabetes), presence of retinopathy, markers of nephropathy and biochemical variables. The prevalence of complications and the clinical and biochemical parameters were evaluated for type 1 and type 2 diabetes and for each ethnic group. RESULTS: Of the 219 patients, 47 had type 1 DM (36 blacks, 11 Indians) and 172 were classified as type 2 DM (96 blacks, 76 Indians). The mean age of onset of DM was later in blacks than Indians, both for type 1 (P < 0.05) and type 2 DM (P < 0.01). In patients with type 1 DM, the prevalence of retinopathy was 53.2% (blacks 55.6%, Indians 45.5%), persistent proteinuria was found in 23.4% (blacks 25%, Indians 18.2%) and hypertension in 34%. No ethnic difference was found except for the prevalence of hypertension which was higher in blacks than Indians (41.7% v. 9.1%, P < 0.5). Onset of retinopathy from time of diabetes diagnosis occurred earlier in blacks than Indians (13.0 +/- 4.6 yrs v. 18.0 +/- 4.6 yrs, P < 0.05). For the type 2 DM group, retinopathy was found in 64.5% (black v. Indian 68.8 v. 59.2%) and persistent proteinuria in 25% (black v. Indian 30.2 v. 18.4%). Hypertension was observed in 68% and was more prevalent in blacks (84.4 v. 47.4%, P < 0.01) There was an earlier onset of retinopathy (P < 0.05) and hypertension (P < 0.01) from time of diabetes diagnosis in blacks than Indians. In the type 1 DM group retinopathy was associated with a significantly longer duration of diabetes (P < 0.05) and higher glycated haemoglobin (HbA1) (P < 0.05). For type 2 DM subjects there was a significant association between retinopathy and longer duration of diabetes (P < 0.05) and higher systolic blood pressure (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: This study has shown that there is a high prevalence of microvascular complications in South African patients with long-duration diabetes mellitus.

Adult↗
PubMed2000

High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: developing a cohort for intervention trials.

OBJECTIVE: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. SETTING: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. METHODS: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. RESULTS: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. In 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). CONCLUSIONS: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

Adolescent↗