Lesion load reproducibility and statistical sensitivity of clinical trials in multiple sclerosis.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to D W Paty.
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The PRISMS (Prevention of Relapses and Disability by Interferon-beta1a Subcutaneously in Multiple Sclerosis) trial was a double-blind, randomized, multicenter, phase III, placebo-controlled study of interferon-beta1a in 560 patients from 22 centers in 9 countries with clinically definite or laboratory-supported relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The patients were randomized to receive recombinant interferon-beta1a (Rebif), 22 microg (6 mIU), 44 microg (12 mIU), or placebo, given subcutaneously, three times weekly for 2 years. All patients underwent biannual proton density/T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans to determine the overall magnetic resonance imaging disease activity and burden of disease, and a cohort of 205 patients had 11 initial monthly proton density/T2-weighted and gadolinium-enhanced/T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans. Over the 2 years, the placebo group showed a progressive median increase in burden of disease of 10.9%, whereas the 22-microg group and 44-microg group showed median decreases of 1.2% and 3.8%, respectively. The number of T2 active lesions and percentage of scans showing T2 activity on the biannual scans were also significantly reduced in both treatment groups compared with placebo, with a clear dose-effect favoring the 44-microg dose over the 22-microg dose. In the subgroup undergoing initial monthly scanning, this reduction in activity became statistically significant 2 months after the start of treatment. These results provide strong, objective evidence to support the positive clinical results of reduction in relapses and delay in disease progression. In addition, they also demonstrate a significant dosage effect, favoring the 44-microg dose.
Seventeen relapsing-remitting (R/R) multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and age/sex matched controls were studied every 6 weeks for 2 years. Disease activity, determined both clinically and by serial MRI, was correlated with natural killer (NK) cell functional activity (FA) and phenotype. Mean NK cell FA is significantly lower in MS patients, compared to controls (P < 0.001), while variability around the means is significantly greater (P < 0.01). The spectrum of mean NK cell FA, observed in the patient cohort, along with cyclical nature of the FA and phenotype over time, observed in both patients and controls, may begin to explain the discrepant results reported in previous studies. In R/R MS, there is a significant correlation between reductions (valleys) in NK cell FA and the development of active lesions on MRI, new (P < 0.001) or enlarging (P = 0.05). More importantly, a significant number of active lesions, new (P = 0.01) and enlarging (P = 0.02), are preceded by a reduction in NK cell FA. The correlation between the onset of clinical attacks and valleys of NK cell FA is also significant (P = 0.002). When taken together, the results suggest that reductions (valleys) in NK cell FA represent periods of susceptibility for the development of active lesions on MRI and clinical attacks. A significant positive correlation is also identified between mean NK cell FA for each R/R MS patient and total number of active MRI lesions developed by that patient over the 2 years (P = 0.001). The results would suggest that R/R MS patients with a higher mean NK cell FA are at greater risk for the development of active lesions. These results support the proposal that NK cells may play a role in the immunopathogenesis of R/R MS.
The change of brain lesion load, measured on T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using computer-assisted techniques, is a widely used secondary endpoint for phase III clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). Collection, transfer, and analysis of the electronic data across multiple centers have all proved challenging and give rise to potential errors. However, many new acquisition schemes and postprocessing techniques have been developed; these may reduce scan times and result in better lesion conspicuity or lessen the human interaction needed for data analysis. This review considers many aspects of the use of MRI in clinical trials for MS and provides international consensus guidelines, derived from a task force of the European Magnetic Resonance Networks in Multiple Sclerosis (MAGNIMS) together with a group of North American experts. The main points considered are the organization of correctly powered trials and selection of participating sites; the appropriate choice of pulse sequences and image acquisition protocol given the current state of technology; quality assurance for data acquisition and analysis; accuracy and reproducibility of lesion load assessments; and the potential for the application of quantitative methods to other MRI-derived measures of disease burden.
Magnetization transfer and T2 relaxation data were obtained for five white and six gray matter brain structures from 10 normal volunteers and 9 multiple sclerosis patients. Thirty MS lesions were also analyzed. Magnetization transfer ratios and myelin water percentages were compared. Both techniques showed a significant difference between the average of white and gray matter of the normal volunteers as well as the average of normal-appearing white matter and gray matter of the multiple sclerosis patients. The average magnetization transfer ratio and myelin water percentage for lesions were significantly lower than those of normal-appearing white matter. Myelin water percentages and magnetization transfer ratios were uncorrelated in white and gray matter but showed a small (R = 0.5, P = 0.005) but significant correlation in multiple sclerosis lesions. In summary, the myelin water percentage and the magnetization transfer ratio provide quantifiable but largely independent measures of multiple sclerosis lesion pathology.
We tested the hypothesis that susceptibility to relapsing-progressive (RP) (but not to relapsing-remitting [RR]) multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with a gene linked to the TcR beta-chain variable region delimited by the Vbeta8-BamHI and Vbeta11-BamHI RFLP alleles in DRw15+ MS patients, using a contingency-table test of patient data and affected family-based controls. Control alleles and haplotypes were composed of parental marker alleles and haplotypes not transmitted to the affected child, in 90 simplex and 31 multiplex families from British Columbia. A total of 6,164 alleles at 11 loci were segregated through families of probands with RP MS or RR MS. The Vbeta8-Vbeta11 subhaplotype frequencies in the DRw15+ RP MS (but not RR MS) patients differed from control frequencies, because of an increase of the 2-1 subhaplotype (P=.02). Vbeta8-BamHI and Vbeta11-BamHI allele frequencies (P=.05 and .009, respectively) in the DRw15+ RP MS (but not RR MS) patients differed from control frequencies. The Vbeta1-Vbeta8 subhaplotype frequencies in the DRw15- RP MS (but not RR MS) patients differed from control frequencies (P=.03), with a significantly increased frequency of the 1-1 subhaplotype (P=.01; RR=7.1) in RP MS versus RR MS patients. Susceptibility to RP MS is associated both with a recessive inheritance of a gene linked to the 3' (Vbeta11) end of the 2-1 subhaplotype defined by the Vbeta8-BamHI and Vbeta11-BamHI alleles in DRw15+ patients and with a gene, located on the 1-1 subhaplotype, defined by the Vbeta1-TaqI and Vbeta8-MspI alleles of the TcR beta-chain complex in DRw15- patients.
Magnetic resonance has provided a literal window on the brain to visualise the actual pathology of MS as it evolves in the living patient. Natural history studies disclosed that MRI visualised pathological activity was seen at 5 to 10x the rate of clinical relapses. Utilising that knowledge, systematic MRI monitoring has been used to supplement clinical monitoring to show the treatment effect in several clinical trials. This chapter explains how MR techniques can be used to further explore the evolution of in vivo pathology both in clinical trials and natural history studies.
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Using a 32-echo imaging pulse sequence, T2 relaxation decay curves were acquired from five white- and six gray-matter brain structures outlined in 12 normal volunteers. The water contents of white and gray matter were 0.71 (0.01) and 0.83 (0.03) g/ml, respectively. All white-matter structures had significantly higher myelin water percentages (signal percentage with T2 between 10 and 50 ms) than all gray-matter structures. The range in geometric mean T2 of the main peak for both white and gray matter was from 70 to 86 ms. T2 distributions from the posterior internal capsules and splenium of the corpus callosum were significantly wider (width is related to water environment inhomogeneity) than those from any other white- or gray-matter structures. Thus, quantitative measurement and analysis of T2 relaxation reveals differences in brain tissue water environments not discernible on conventional MR images. These differences may make short T2 components reliable markers for normal myelin.
Multiple sclerosis is primarily a disease of myelin. The degeneration of neurons and axons in MS has not been considered to be a major factor until recently. Magnetic resonance (MR) techniques have helped a great deal in describing the evolution of MS lesions over time. Some pathological and MR studies have shown that in the chronic stage of MS, axonal loss occurs. Further studies using MR techniques should help to understand this phenomenon as it occurs in vivo.
Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was used to monitor cyclosporine therapy for chronic progressive multiple sclerosis in a multicenter clinical trial and an analysis was performed to determine whether there was a correlation between clinical changes and MRI changes. MRI was performed on 163 patients at the onset and completion of the 2-year study. Burden of disease (BOD, lesion load) was quantitated by a single observer using a computer program. Active lesions were also identified. The Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score was determined every 3 months MRI data did not show any effect of cyclosporine treatment on BOD progression (mean 24.5% increase/yr) or lesion activity. However, there was a statistically significant positive correlation between the baseline total BOD value and the baseline EDSS score (r = 0.221, p = 0.005) and a positive correlation between the percent changes in BOD from baseline to exit and EDSS score (r = 0.186, p = 0.018). The study supports the concepts that MRI is a useful technique in monitoring therapeutic trials and that MRI is a direct measure of pathology.
Because of the major difficulties in measuring clinical end points in multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment trials, there has been much enthusiasm for using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings as an alternative outcome. To provide international consensus guidelines for the use of MRI in MS clinical trials, a task force of the US National MS Society was convened. The recommendations of the task force are presented in this review. Given the high sensitivity for detecting pathological activity in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS, monthly T2-weighted and gadolinium-enhanced brain MRI is an excellent tool for short-term exploratory trials of new agents where it serves as the primary end point; in particular, failure to demonstrate a reduction in lesion activity avoids the time, cost, and risks of a larger clinical end point study. However, conventional MRI findings have a limited correlation with disability in established MS. The primary end point of a definitive trial should therefore be clinical, although serial MRI at 6- to 12-month intervals is a useful secondary end point in providing an index of pathological progression. In trials of patients presenting with clinically isolated syndromes suggestive of MS, MRI findings can be used in the entry criteria, and as a secondary outcome measure, but conversion to clinically definite MS should be the primary outcome. The pathological substrates of irreversible disability are demyelination and axonal loss. Putative magnetic resonance markers for these processes include decreased N-acetylaspartate on proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy, decreased magnetization transfer ratios, hypointensity on T1-weighted images, and loss of short T2 water fractions, some of which relate more closely to disability than conventional MRI findings. Further technical developments should lead to more accurate quantitation, greater pathological specificity, and stronger clinical correlations.
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The aetiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) is uncertain. There is strong circumstantial evidence to indicate it is an autoimmune complex trait. Risks for first degree relatives are increased some 20 fold over the general population. Twin studies have shown monozygotic concordance rates of 25-30% compared to 4% for dizygotic twins and siblings. Studies of adoptees and half sibs show that familial risk is determined by genes, but environmental factors strongly influence observed geographic differences. Studies of candidate genes have been largely unrewarding. We report a genome search using 257 microsatellite markers with average spacing of 15.2 cM in 100 sibling pairs (Table 1, data set 1 - DS1). A locus of lambda>3 was excluded from 88% of the genome. Five loci with maximum lod scores (MLS) of >1 were identified on chromosomes 2, 3, 5, 11 and X. Two additional data sets containing 44 (Table 1, DS2) and 78 sib pairs (Table 1, DS3) respectively, were used to further evaluate the HLA region on 6p21 and a locus on chromosome 5 with an MLS of 4.24. Markers within 6p21 gave MLS of 0.65 (non-significant, NS). However, D6S461, just outside the HLA region, showed significant evidence for linkage disequilibrium by the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT), in all three data sets (for DS1 chi2 = 10.8, adjusted P < 0.01)(DS2 and DS3 chi2 = 10.9, P < 0.0005), suggesting a modest susceptibility locus in this region. On chromosome 5p results from all three data sets (222 sib pairs) yielded a multipoint MLS of 1.6. The results support genetic epidemiological evidence that several genes interact epistatically to determine heritable susceptibility.
Recent clinical trials have shown that interferon beta (IFN-beta) is effective in reducing exacerbations in relapsing-remitting MS, while interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) precipitates the relapses. To investigate mechanisms underlying the beneficial effects of IFN-beta and the detrimental effects of IFN-gamma in MS, cell growth-regulatory effects of IFNs were examined in astrocyte-enriched cultures isolated from fetal brains of 12-20 weeks' gestation. Treatment with IFN-gamma (50 or 500 IU ml-1) stimulated significantly the proliferation of astrocytes in 6 out of 9 culture series examined, while IFN-beta (50 or 500 IU ml-1) inhibited the astrocytic proliferation in 3 out of 9 cultures, and IFN-alpha (50 or 500 IU ml-1) did not affect the proliferation IFN-beta and to a lesser degree IFN-alpha reduced the astrocytic proliferation induced by IFN-gamma-treatment in 8 out of 9 culture series. The counteracting effect of IFN-alpha/IFN-beta against IFN-gamma-induced astrocytic proliferation was verified by the DNA content distribution analysis of propidium iodide-labeled cells. The antagonistic effect of IFN-alpha/IFN-beta on the growth-promoting activity of IFN-gamma in cultured human astrocytes suggests that interferons serve as growth regulators of astrocytes at sites of reactive gliosis lesions of MS.
The Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT) is a prospective study of corticosteroid treatment of acute optic neuritis (ON), with subsequent longitudinal follow-up to determine development of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). We analyzed the CSF of 83 patients with clinically isolated ON who underwent lumbar puncture within 24 hours of enrollment into the ONTT to determine the value of CSF changes in ON, especially regarding diagnostic utility, immunologic changes, MRI correlations, and progression to CDMS. All patients had baseline MRI scans graded for changes typical of MS. CSF measurements included immunoglobulin G (IgG) synthesis, IgG ratio, myelin basic protein, IgG kappa light chains, and oligoclonal banding. No patients had their diagnosis or management altered as a result of CSF findings. Except for oligoclonal bands, few patients showed any abnormalities on CSF tests, and no tests correlated with the 2-year development of CDMS. Oligoclonal banding, present at baseline in 11 of 13 patients who developed CDMS, did predict progression to CDMS, but this was not independent of MRI abnormalities. Two patients with oligoclonal bands and a normal MRI did progress to CDMS. We conclude that CSF analysis may not be necessary in the routine evaluation of patients presenting with a typical clinical profile of acute ON, and that most CSF tests add little additional information to MRI results for predicting the 2-year development of CDMS. However, the precise role of oligoclonal banding in the analysis of such patients awaits longer follow-up of this cohort.
The objective of the present study were (1) to ascertain the lifetime risk of a depression in a representative group of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, (2) to assess the morbidity risks for depression among first-degree relatives of these MS patients, and (3) to compare these familial risks for first-degree relatives of MS patients with those for first-degree relatives of a primary depression population, i.e., depression but no MS. We psychiatrically evaluated 221 MS patients (index cases) using a structured clinical interview for the DSM-III-R and calculated the rate and lifetime risk of depression for these index cases using the product limit estimate of survival function. We obtained psychiatric histories for all first-degree relatives of index cases, and we calculated morbidity risks for depression for these relatives using the maximum likelihood approach and compared the risks using the likelihood ratio tests. Index cases had a 50.3% lifetime risk of depression. Morbidity risks for depression among first-degree relatives of index cases were decidedly lower when compared with morbidity risks among first-degree relatives of the reference population. Although there appears to be a very high rate of depression among MS patients, the data for their first-degree relatives do not support a clear genetic basis for this depression, or at least the same genetic basis that probably operates within families when depression occurs in the absence of MS.
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