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Biomedical subjects

D Le Sueur

Publications and source records attributed to D Le Sueur.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2004

Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: part I. The impact of climatic factors.

Large parts of Africa are prone to malaria epidemics. Advance epidemic warning would give health services an opportunity to prepare. Because malaria transmission is largely limited by climate, climate-based epidemic warning systems are a real possibility. To develop and test such a system, good long-term malaria and climate data are needed. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, 30 years of confirmed malaria case data provide a unique opportunity to examine short- and long-term trends. We analysed seasonal case totals and seasonal changes in cases (both log-transformed) against a range of climatic indicators obtained from three weather stations in the highest malaria incidence districts, using linear regression analysis. Seasonal changes in case numbers (delta log cases, dlc) were significantly associated with several climate variables. The two most significant ones were mean maximum daily temperatures from January to October of the preceding season (n=30, r2=0.364, P=0.0004) and total rainfall during the current summer months of November-March (n=30, r2=0.282, P=0.003). These two variables, when entered into the same regression model, together explained 49.7% of the total variation in dlc. We found no evidence of association between case totals and climate. In KZN, where malaria control operations are intense, climate appears to drive the interannual variation of malaria incidence, but not its overall level. The accompanying paper provides evidence that overall levels are associated with non-climatic factors such as drug resistance and possibly HIV prevalence.

Climate↗
PubMed2004

Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: part II. The impact of non-climatic factors.

Malaria transmission is a multifactorial phenomenon. Climate is a major limiting factor in the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria, but many non-climatic factors may alter or override the effect of climate. Thirty years of monthly malaria incidence data from KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, reveal strong medium and long-term trends, which were not present in the climate data. This paper explores various non-climatic factors that may have contributed towards the observed trends. The development of antimalarial drug resistance, available information on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, cross-border people movements, agricultural activities, emergence of insecticide resistance and the case reporting system are reviewed and their potential effect on malaria transmission examined. Single-variable linear regression analysis showed significant association between seasonal case totals (log-transformed) and the measured level of drug resistance (log-transformed) (r2=0.558, n=10, P=0.013) as well as relative measures of HIV infection since 1990 (r2=0.846, n=11, P=0.001). The other factors appear to have affected the level of malaria transmission at certain periods and to some degree. The importance of surveillance and inclusion of non-climatic variables in analysis of malaria data is demonstrated.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2000

A spatial statistical approach to malaria mapping.

BACKGROUND: Good maps of malaria risk have long been recognized as an important tool for malaria control. The production of such maps relies on modelling to predict the risk for most of the map, with actual observations of malaria prevalence usually only known at a limited number of specific locations. Estimation is complicated by the fact that there is often local variation of risk that cannot be accounted for by the known covariates and because data points of measured malaria prevalence are not evenly or randomly spread across the area to be mapped. METHOD: We describe, by way of an example, a simple two-stage procedure for producing maps of predicted risk: we use logistic regression modelling to determine approximate risk on a larger scale and we employ geo-statistical ('kriging') approaches to improve prediction at a local level. Malaria prevalence in children under 10 was modelled using climatic, population and topographic variables as potential predictors. After the regression analysis, spatial dependence of the model residuals was investigated. Kriging on the residuals was used to model local variation in malaria risk over and above that which is predicted by the regression model. RESULTS: The method is illustrated by a map showing the improvement of risk prediction brought about by the second stage. The advantages and shortcomings of this approach are discussed in the context of the need for further development of methodology and software.

Child↗
PubMed1996

[Malaria in South Africa: past, present and perspectives].

This paper outlines a brief historical perspective on malaria which is considered essential to an understanding of the gains made in the control of the disease, followed by an emphasis on the fact that control is a dynamic process requiring research back-up, private and public sector and national and international collaboration. Malaria control is based on scientific principles and ongoing success requires continual research input, government commitment to control of the disease and appropriately skilled and trained personnel. This overview cannot do justice to malaria control and research in South Africa in its entirety, but looks at some of the major factors facing malaria control that have motivated the Medical Research Council's research initiative, which includes vector and parasite research, the use of geographical information systems and the epidemiology of the disease, with a view to sustaining control in the future.

Drug Resistance↗
PubMed1993

Assessment of the residual efficacy of lambda-cyhalothrin. 1. A laboratory study using Anopheles arabiensis and Cimex lectularius (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) on treated daub wall substrates from Natal, South Africa.

Laboratory assessment of the residual efficacy of lambda-cyhalothrin (Icon) 10% AI against Anopheles arabiensis and Cimex lectularius was carried out. The insecticide was applied to daub substrates, simulating the wall surface of houses from 3 areas within the endemic malaria area of Natal, South Africa. Variability in residual efficacy was found between different areas and appeared to correlate to organic content of the substrate. Residual efficacy against An. arabiensis ranged from as little as 2 wk in some areas to in excess of 14 wk in others. Residual efficacy against C. lectularius was 4 wk for all 3 areas, but was 10 wk in only 2 areas.

Animals↗
PubMed1993

Assessment of the residual efficacy of lambda-cyhalothrin. 2. A comparison with DDT for the intradomiciliary control of Anopheles arabiensis in South Africa.

There are several factors that support the need to assess the efficacy of potential alternative insecticides to DDT for malaria vector control. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the persistence and efficacy against Anopheles arabiensis of lambda-cyhalothrin used as an intradomiciliary insecticide in daub huts and to compare its efficacy in this regard to DDT. Exit trap catches showed the population of An. arabiensis was high during the months of January to March, with a peak in February. During all months, the number caught leaving lambda-cyhalothrin-sprayed huts was markedly less than the number from both control and DDT-sprayed huts. The percentage survival of bloodfed mosquitoes ranged from a low of 55% caught leaving the lambda-cyhalothrin-sprayed huts, to 82% of those caught leaving DDT-sprayed huts. The percentage of bloodfed mosquitoes caught leaving huts was high (> 60%). The survival of unfed mosquitoes was low, even from the control huts (43%).

Animals↗
PubMed1990

Effect of DDT on survival and blood feeding success of Anopheles arabiensis in northern Kwazulu, Republic of South Africa.

The effect of house spraying with DDT on blood-feeding and resting behavior of An. arabiensis in Natal Province, Republic of South Africa, was investigated. Indoor resting occurred in both control (unsprayed) and replastered (DDT on walls covered due to replastering) huts, but was minimal in fully DDT-sprayed huts. The percentage of bloodfed mosquitoes was greater than 50% in both control and replastered huts, but in the latter huts there was a reduction in the percentage of gravid and an increase in the percentage of unfed mosquitoes. Large numbers were collected in exit traps irrespective of the DDT status of the huts. The percentage of catch that was bloodfed was lowest in exit traps fitted on DDT-sprayed houses. The percentage survival of bloodfed mosquitoes caught in exit traps exceeded 72% for all 3 hut types. The survival of unfed mosquitoes was, however, markedly lower. Susceptibility tests showed no physiological tolerance to DDT by the wild An. arabiensis population. Bioassays using colonized An. arabiensis showed the DDT deposits on hut walls to effect 100% kill with 15 minutes of exposure.

Animals↗
PubMed1988

Effects of salinity on the larvae of some Afrotropical anopheline mosquitoes.

Laboratory experiments showed that the larvae of some freshwater-breeding Afrotropical anopheline species exhibit various degrees of tolerance to 25% sea-water. At 24 degrees C, survival rates from egg to fourth instar larva were significantly less in salt-water than in freshwater for four species: 39.5% versus 55.4% for Anopheles tenebrosus Dönitz, 31.9% versus 86.2% for An. mousinhoi De Meillon & Pereira, 3.5% versus 67.9% for An. pharoensis Theobald and 3.9% versus 41.9% for An. quadriannulatus (Theobald). Conversely, An. merus Dönitz showed a significantly better survival rate of 46.4% in 25% sea-water compared with 15.5% in freshwater. Simulated winter conditions did not significantly change these differential survival rates of An. merus. Effects of salinity on the anal papillae of third instar larvae are discussed.

Animals↗