Biomedical subjects

D J Nokes

Publications and source records attributed to D J Nokes.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Serological and molecular epidemiology of measles virus outbreaks reported in Ethiopia during 2000-2004.

Twenty-eight outbreaks in six regions and two major cities in Ethiopia from 2000 to 2004 were investigated, with the collection of 207 venous blood and/or oral fluid samples. Measles diagnosis was confirmed by detection of measles-specific IgM and/or detection of measles virus by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Of 176 suspected cases tested for specific measles IgM, 142 (81%) were IgM positive. Suspected cases in vaccinated children were much less likely to be laboratory confirmed than in unvaccinated children (42% vs. 83%, P < 0.0001). Of 197 samples analyzed by RT-PCR measles virus genome was detected in 84 (43%). A total of 58 wild-type measles viruses were characterized by nucleic acid sequence analysis of the nucleoprotein (N) and hemagglutinin (H) genes. Two recognized genotypes (D4 and B3) were identified. Each outbreak comprised only a single genotype and outbreaks of each genotype tended to occur in distinct geographical locations. B3 was first observed in 2002, and has now been the cause of three documented outbreaks near to the border of Sudan. D4 genotype was previously observed in an outbreak in 1999 and occurs in more diverse locations throughout the country. These data yield insights into geographical and age-related sources of continued transmission. Refinement of measles control measures might include targeting older age groups (5-14 years) and strengthening routine immunization particularly where importation of cases is a concern.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection.

Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

Comparison of three methods of collecting nasal specimens for respiratory virus analysis.

BACKGROUND: Nasopharyngeal aspiration (NPA) is used widely in the collection of nasal specimens for respiratory virus diagnosis. The method has limitations in relation to technical expertise, patient anxiety, and apparatus dependence. Nasal washing (NW) offers an alternative approach. OBJECTIVE: To identify the merits of two different NW methods in comparison with NPA. DESIGN: Two hundred children with acute respiratory infection (ARI) were randomised to receive one of three collection devices: (i) standard NPA, (ii) NW using a 30ml ear-syringe bulb (NWb), or (iii) NW using a 5ml syringe (NWs) with a shortened (9cm) 8FG tube. Assessment focused on ease of procedure, acceptability to parent and child, and adequacy of epithelial cell yield for immunofluorescence testing. A short questionnaire was delivered. SETTING: Paediatric Ward of Kilifi District Hospital, (KDH) Kilifi, Kenya. SUBJECTS: Any child admitted with ARI between 5th November 2001 and 24th January 2002. RESULTS: Children recruited into NPA, NWb and NWs procedures numbered 62, 76 and 62, respectively (median age of 8 months). A higher proportion of children receiving NWb did not cry (43%) compared to those receiving NPA (13%) (OR 5.18; 95% CI 2.17-12.4). Whereas 66% of mothers were comfortable with NPA procedure, the proportion for NWs was 40% (OR 0.341; 0.163-0.714). Acceptability to the operator was marginally lower for NWs than NPA (79% vs 92%, OR 0.324, 0.107-0.974). For other observations there were no differences between the procedures; these were length of procedure (98% <5mins), the acceptable time interval for repeating a procedure (64% <1 week), comparison with blood collection (77% preferred the nasal specimen) and slides with 20 or more epithelial cells (overall 82%). CONCLUSION: Nasal washing methods provide simple and effective alternatives to NPA, with the NWb being the more acceptable, and have merits for use in resource poor and home settings.

Child, Preschool↗

PubMed2003

Improving sensitivity of oral fluid testing in IgG prevalence studies: application of mixture models to a rubella antibody survey.

A method for the analysis of age-stratified antibody prevalence surveys is applied to a previously reported survey of antibody to rubella virus using oral fluid samples in which the sensitivity of the assay used was shown to be compromised. The age-specific distribution of the quantitative results of antibody tests using oral fluids is modelled as a mixture of strong positive, weak positive and negative components. This yields maximum likelihood estimates of the prevalence at each age and demonstrates that, when used in conjunction with mixture modelling techniques, the results of antibody prevalence studies using oral fluids accurately reflect those obtained using sera.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Seroepidemiology of hepatitis B virus in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: transmission patterns and vaccine control.

A community-based seroepidemiological survey of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia was conducted in 1994 to inform on the transmission dynamics and control of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Venous blood from 4736 individuals under 50 years of age from 1262 households, selected using stratified cluster-sampling, was screened for HBV markers using commercial ELISAs. HBsAg prevalence was 7% (95 % CI 6-8), higher in males (9%; 7-10) than females (5%; 4-6). HBeAg prevalence in HBsAg positives was 23% (18-29), and less than 1% of women of childbearing age were HBeAg positive. Overall HBV seroprevalence (any marker), rose steadily with age to over 70% in 40-49 year olds, indicating significant childhood and adult transmission. Estimated instantaneous incidence was 3-4/100 susceptibles/year, higher in males than females in 0-4 year olds, and peaking in early childhood and young adults. The age at which 50% had evidence of infection was around 20 years, and the herd immunity threshold is approximated at 63-77%. Addis Ababa is of intermediate-high HBV endemicity, with negligible perinatal transmission. Our main findings are the identification of a significant difference between males and females in the age-acquisition of HBV infection, and marked differences between age groups in HBV incidence rates. These results should target future research studies of underlying risk factors. Furthermore, we generate a crude estimate of the level of coverage of HBV vaccine that would be required to eliminate the virus from the study population.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Seroepidemiology of measles in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: implications for control through vaccination.

We undertook a representative survey of measles antibodies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 1994, to characterize immunity and transmission. Specific-antibody levels (IU/l) were determined by ELISA for 4654 sera from individuals aged 0-49 years (1805 < 15 years) collected by stratified household-cluster sampling. The proportion seronegative (< 100 IU/l) was 20% (95% CI: 16-25) in children 9-59 months old, declining to 9% (7-12) in 5-9 year olds, 5% (4-7) in 10-14 year olds, and < 1% in adults. The proportion of children (< 15 years old) with low-level antibody (100-255 IU/l) was 8% (7-10). Vaccination and an absence of a history of measles illness were strongly associated with low-level antibody. History of measles vaccination in 9 months to 14-year-old children was approximately 80%. We estimate a primary vaccine failure rate of 21% (12-34) and continued high measles incidence of 22 per 100 susceptibles (19-24) per annum. Our data support the introduction of campaign vaccination in the city in 1998, although higher routine vaccine coverage is required to sustain the impact. The implications of a high prevalence of low-level antibody are discussed.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Analysis of the relationship between immunogenicity and immunity for viral subunit vaccines.

The prevention of viral infection by vaccination relies on stimulating an appropriate immune response in order to reduce the probability with which a virus can establish an infection. Post-vaccination antibody responses have therefore been associated with reducing the probability with which an individual can be infected (i.e., the vaccine's "impact"). Quantifying this relationship is essential in evaluating new vaccines, especially since comparisons between vaccines, and vaccine licensure, may be dependent on antibody responses alone. In this paper two principal questions are identified which need to be addressed in the evaluation of subunit vaccines: i) how do specific antibody levels relate to complete protection from infection or disease and ii) how do antigenic subunits interact in developing protection when combined together in a single vaccine. The aim is to identify explicitly certain assumptions that are frequently made implicitly in the discussion of vaccine action. First, antibody levels are related to levels of protection through a novel statistical analysis of incidence data from a published hepatitis B vaccine trial. The antibody response observed after influenza A virus infection is discussed in relation to the selection of neutralisation escape variants. Finally, by way of example, a theoretical situation is examined and three simple models of subunit vaccine action are constructed in order to describe how antibody levels may be related to population level phenomena such as the elimination of an infection by mass vaccination.

Animals↗

PubMed2001

Measles virus strains circulating in Ethiopia in 1998-1999: molecular characterisation using oral fluid samples and identification of a new genotype.

A measles outbreak in December 1998 in Bedelle (vaccine coverage <40%) and two sporadic cases in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, were investigated. Paired serum and oral fluid samples were collected 2-8 days after the onset of symptoms. A total of 53 of 55 outbreak cases and both sporadic cases were positive for serum measles virus-specific IgM. Oral fluid measles-specific IgM was positive in 71% of cases collected up to 5 days after onset and in 90% collected at 6-8 days. By contrast, 100% of oral fluid samples were positive for measles virus RNA by RT-PCR, suggesting that early collection of samples favoured the detection of measles virus RNA by RT-PCR. The measles virus strain in the outbreak was identified as genotype D4. One strain from a sporadic case was also genotype D4; the strain from the other sporadic case was assigned to clade D but was distinct. The degree of divergence from recognised clade D strains suggested that, together with three strains from the United Kingdom, it represents an additional genotype of clade D (GenBank accession numbers AF280800-280807).

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Hepatitis-B virus endemicity: heterogeneity, catastrophic dynamics and control.

Hepatitis-B virus infection is globally ubiquitous, but its distribution is very heterogeneous, with prevalence of serological markers in various nations ranging from less than 1% to more than 90%. We propose an explanation for this diversity using a mathematical model of hepatitis-B virus transmission dynamics that shows, for the first time, 'catastrophic' behavior using realistic epidemiological processes and parameters. Our major conclusion is that the prevalence of infection is largely determined by a feedback mechanism that relates the rate of transmission, average age at infection and age-related probability of developing carriage following infection. Using the model we identify possible, highly non-linear, consequences of chemotherapy and immunization interventions, for which the starting prevalence of carriers is the most influential, predictive quantity. Taken together, our results demand a re-evaluation of public health policy towards hepatitis-B.

Carrier State↗

PubMed2001

Has oral fluid the potential to replace serum for the evaluation of population immunity levels? A study of measles, rubella and hepatitis B in rural Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the suitability of using oral-fluid samples for determining the prevalence of immunity to vaccine-preventable infections. METHODS: Paired blood and oral-fluid samples were obtained from 853 individuals of all ages from a rural Ethiopian community. Oral fluid around the gums was screened for measles- and rubella-specific antibodies using enhanced IgG antibody capture (GAC) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), and for anti-HBc antibodies using a prototype GACELISA. IgG antibodies in serum to measles, rubella and HBc were determined using commercial ELISAs. FINDINGS: Relative to serum, oral fluid assay sensitivity and specificity were as follows: 98% and 87% for measles, 79% and 90% for rubella, and 43% and 87% for anti-HBc. These assay characteristics yielded population prevalence estimates from oral fluid with a precision equal to that of serum for measles (all ages) and rubella (ages < 20 years). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that oral fluid could have the potential to replace serum in IgG antibody prevalence surveys. Further progress requires assessment of variation in assay performance between populations as well as the availability of standardized, easy to use assays.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

Predicting and comparing long-term measles antibody profiles of different immunization policies.

OBJECTIVE: Measles outbreaks are infrequent and localized in areas with high coverage of measles vaccine. The need is to assess long-term effectiveness of coverage. Since 1991, no measles epidemic affecting the whole island has occurred in Taiwan, China. Epidemiological models are developed to predict the long-term measles antibody profiles and compare the merits of different immunization policies on the island. METHODS: The current measles immunization policy in Taiwan, China, is 1 dose of measles vaccine at 9 months of age and 1 dose of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine at 15 months of age, plus a 'mop-up' of MMR-unvaccinated schoolchildren at 6 years of age. Refinements involve a change to a two-dose strategy. Five scenarios based on different vaccination strategies are compared. The models are analysed using Microsoft Excel. FINDINGS: First, making the assumption that measles vaccine-induced immunity will not wane, the predicted measles IgG seroprevalences in preschool children range from 81% (lower bound) to 94% (upper bound) and in schoolchildren reach 97-98% in all strategy scenarios. Results are dependent on the association of vaccine coverage between the first and second dose of vaccine. Second, if it is assumed that vaccine-induced antibody titres decay, the long-term measles seroprevalence will depend on the initial titres post vaccination, decay rates of antibody titres and cut-off of seropositivity. CONCLUSION: If MMR coverage at 12 months of age can reach > 90%, it would be worth changing the current policy to 2 doses at 12 months and 6 years of age to induce higher antibody titres. These epidemiological models could be applied wherever a similar stage of measles elimination has been reached.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2000

Protective titres of measles neutralising antibody.

A nation-wide measles outbreak occurred in 1988 in Taiwan. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to define the protective titre of measles neutralising (NT) antibody. Paired sera collected in 1987 and 1988 were available from 190 individuals born in 1984 who had participated in an annual hepatitis B immunisation follow-up from 1986 to 1991. Measles NT titres were quantified using a standardised neutralisation enzyme immunoassay. Measles infection was defined as a >/=4-fold rise in NT titre or seroconversion between paired sera. Symptomatic measles infection was ascribed to individuals who had measles infection and who reported measles-like symptoms between 1987 and 1988. Results demonstrated a dose-response relationship between pre-exposure NT titres and protection against measles infection. 47 of 48 individuals with measles infection in 1988 had pre-exposure NT titres </=1,017 mIU/ml; all 12 symptomatic cases had pre-exposure NT titres </=434 mIU/ml. Eleven vaccinees had pre-exposure NT titres <50 mIU/ml, of whom nine developed asymptomatic infection. The study suggests that measles NT titres >1, 000 mIU/ml may prevent measles infection and NT titres >500 mIU/ml may prevent symptomatic infection but vaccinees with undetectable or low NT titres may not necessarily be susceptible to symptomatic infection.

Antibodies, Viral↗

PubMed2000

Predictions of the emergence of vaccine-resistant hepatitis B in The Gambia using a mathematical model.

Vaccine escape variants of hepatitis B virus (HBV) have been identified world-wide. A mathematical model of HBV transmission is used to investigate the potential pattern of emergence of such variants. Attention is focused on The Gambia as a country with high quality epidemiological data, universal infant immunization and in which escape mutants after childhood infections have been observed. We predict that a variant cannot become dominant for at least 20 years from the start of vaccination, even when using a vaccine which affords no cross protection. The dominant factor responsible for this long time scale is the low rate of infectious contacts between infected and susceptible individuals (we estimate the basic reproduction number of hepatitis B in The Gambia to be 1.7). A variant strain that achieves high prevalence will also take many years to control, and it is questionable whether emergence will be identifiable by sero-surveillance until of high prevalence. The sensitivity of the model predictions to epidemiological and demographic factors is explored.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2000

Sero-epidemiology of rubella in the urban population of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

We conducted a community-based cluster sample survey of rubella sero-epidemiology in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in 1994. Among 4666 individuals for whom complete data were available, rubella antibody prevalence was 91% (95% confidence interval: 90, 92). On multivariable analysis, seroprevalence was lower among individuals who were resident in Addis Ababa for 1 year or less. Approx. 50% seroprevalence was attained by age 4 years, and the estimated average age at infection was 5.2 years. The highest age-specific force of infection was estimated to occur in 5- to 9-year-olds. The early age at infection corresponded with a low estimated incidence of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) of 0.3 per 1000 live births, equivalent to nine cases of CRS in 1994. The predicted critical level of immunity for elimination of rubella via vaccination was 85-91%, requiring 89-96% coverage with a vaccine of 95% effectiveness. Unless very high coverage of rubella vaccine could be guaranteed, the introduction of childhood vaccination could increase the incidence of CRS in Addis Ababa.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1999

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programmes: a dynamic perspective.

Although there are many models which are used to calculate the health benefits (and thus the cost-effectiveness) of vaccination programmes, they can be divided into two groups: those which assume a constant force of infection, that is a constant per-susceptible rate of infection; and those which assume that the force of infection (at time t) is a function of the number of infectious individuals in the population at that time (dynamic models). In constant force of infection models the per-susceptible rate of infection is not altered, whereas in dynamic models mass immunization results in fewer infectious individuals in the community and thus a lower force of infection acting on those who were not immunized. We take an example of each of these types of model, examine their underlying assumptions and compare their predictions of the cost-effectiveness of a mass immunization programme against a hypothetical close contact infection, such as measles. We show that if cases of infection are the outcome of interest then the constant force of infection model will always underestimate the cost-effectiveness of the immunization programme except at the extremes when no one or everyone is immunized. However, unlike the constant force of infection model, the dynamic model predicts an increase in the average age at infection after immunization which could impact on the estimate of the cost-effectiveness of the programme if the risk of developing serious disease is a function of the age at infection (as, for instance, is the case for congenital rubella syndrome). Taking cases of infection as the outcome measure and using the dynamic model, the undiscounted cost-effectiveness ratio will tend to decline over time and approach a constant value, as the system moves from pre- to post-immunization equilibrium. We go on to show how the cost-effectiveness of a fixed-term immunization programme might change over time, and discuss why, under most circumstances, decision makers should not assume that elimination (permitting termination of mass immunization) will occur.

Cohort Studies↗

PubMed1999

Modeling the impact of subclinical measles transmission in vaccinated populations with waning immunity.

An increasing body of evidence suggests that a substantial proportion of individuals who respond to measles vaccine display an antibody boost accompanied by mild or no symptoms on exposure to wild virus. It is unknown whether this emerging class of individuals can support transmission. The epidemiologic consequences of vaccinated individuals able to transmit virus are investigated using a mathematical model. Parameters for this model are estimated using regression analysis on a Canadian serologic data set. The authors confirm that neutralizing antibodies are decaying significantly in absence of circulating virus. Based on a protective threshold plaque reduction neutralization (PRN) titer of 120, the authors estimate the mean duration of vaccine-induced protection in absence of reexposure to be 25 years (95% confidence interval (CI) 18, 48). After long-term absence of circulating virus, the mathematical model predicts that 80% (95% CI 65, 91) of all seroconverted vaccinees have titers below the protective threshold. In this case, elimination of measles virus cannot be achieved by a single-dose routine vaccination strategy if the basic reproduction number in vaccinated individuals exceeds 1.24 (95% CI 1.10, 1.53). For this reason, there is a need to establish the intensity and duration of infectiousness in vaccinated individuals.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1999

Do we need 3 doses of hepatitis B vaccine?

The hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine may provide protection through the clonal expansion of specific memory cells without necessarily having to produce high serum antibody levels. We develop a mathematical model which distinguishes between the accumulation of sensitive memory B and T-helper cells prior to a booster and the high circulating antibody levels present in an individual after a booster. We suggest this immune memory accumulates primarily in an antigen-independent fashion. These phenomena suggest individuals may be immune to infection six months after the priming vaccine dose(s) regardless of whether they receive a booster or not. This hypothesis is supported by immunogenicity data and by two independent vaccine efficacy trials comparing 0, 1 month schedules with 0, 1 and 6 month schedules.

Hepatitis B Vaccines↗

PubMed1999

The predicted pattern of emergence of vaccine-resistant hepatitis B: a cause for concern?

We develop an epidemiological model of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in The Gambia in order to investigate the possible patterns of emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain. Under pessimistic assumptions (e.g., the current vaccine provides no cross-immunity against the variant) the model predicts the variant will not become dominant over the wild-type for at least 50 years. Therefore the current low prevalence of variant infections is not evidence for high cross-immunity of the vaccine or for low infectiousness of the variant, but may simply be a consequence of the epidemiology of HBV. The efficacy of the present vaccine against possible variants needs to be evaluated now to determine whether vaccine modifications are required. However, the model also suggests that serological surveillance may be unable to determine this efficacy for 40-50 years.

Adult↗