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D B Pryor

Publications and source records attributed to D B Pryor.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1997

Racial variation in the use of coronary-revascularization procedures. Are the differences real? Do they matter?

BACKGROUND: Studies have reported that blacks undergo fewer coronary-revascularization procedures than whites, but it is not clear whether the clinical characteristics of the patients account for these differences or whether they indicate underuse of the procedures in blacks or overuse in whites. METHODS: In a study at Duke University of 12,402 patients (10.3 percent of whom were black) with coronary disease, we calculated unadjusted and adjusted rates of angioplasty and bypass surgery in blacks and whites after cardiac catheterization. We also examined patterns of treatment after stratifying the patients according to the severity of disease, angina status, and estimated survival benefit due to revascularization. Finally, we compared five-year survival rates in blacks and whites. RESULTS: After adjustment for the severity of disease and other characteristics, blacks were 13 percent less likely than whites to undergo angioplasty and 32 percent less likely to undergo bypass surgery. The adjusted black:white odds ratios for receiving these procedures were 0.87 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.73 to 1.03) and 0.68 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.56 to 0.82), respectively. The racial differences in rates of bypass surgery persisted among those with severe anginal symptoms (31 percent of blacks underwent surgery, vs. 45 percent of whites, P<0.001) and among those predicted to have the greatest survival benefit from revascularization (42 percent vs. 61 percent, P<0.001). Finally, unadjusted and adjusted rates of survival for five years were significantly lower in blacks than in whites. CONCLUSIONS: Blacks with coronary disease were significantly less likely than whites to undergo coronary revascularization, particularly bypass surgery - a difference that could not be explained by the clinical features of their disease. The differences in treatment were most pronounced among those predicted to benefit the most from revascularization. Since these differences also correlated with a lower survival rate in blacks, we conclude that coronary revascularization appears to be underused in blacks.

Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary↗
PubMed1997

Assessment of coronary artery bypass graft surgery performance in New York. Is there a bias against taking high-risk patients?

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine whether performing coronary artery bypass surgery on high-risk patients adversely affects the risk-adjusted mortality rates for patients of surgeons and hospitals in New York State compared with the impact of performing surgery on more routine patients. METHODS: Risk-adjusted mortality-rates were calculated for 31 hospitals and 87 surgeons for high-risk (a predicted mortality rate of at least 7.5%) and low-risk patients during the time period 1990 to 1992. RESULTS: The risk-adjusted mortality for all high-risk patients was lower (2.94%) than the risk-adjusted mortality for other patients (3.02%). Fifteen of the 31 hospitals had a lower risk-adjusted mortality for all patients than they did for low-risk patients only, and no differences in either direction were statistically significant. Forty-one of 87 surgeons (47%) had risk-adjusted mortality for all patients that was at least as low as the risk-adjusted mortality for low-risk patients. In general, hospitals and surgeons with the lowest risk-adjusted mortality for all cases also had the lowest risk-adjusted mortality for high-risk cases. CONCLUSIONS: The authors conclude that there is no systematic bias against operating on high-risk coronary artery bypass graft patients in the risk-adjusted performance system in New York.

Bias↗
PubMed1997

Geographic variation in resource use for coronary artery bypass surgery. IHD Port Investigators.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the national variability in patient-level cost and length of stay for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in Medicare patients. METHODS: Retrospective multivariate regression analysis was done using Medicare administrative files and American Hospital Association files. Patients in the study had an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) procedure code for CABG, with accompanying 1990 procedure data, in the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review File (n = 92,449). RESULTS: Outcome measures used were inpatient cost (exclusive of professional fees) and inpatient length of stay associated with bypass admission. The national average cost of bypass surgery was $22,847 (median $18,783), with an accompanying average length of stay of 16 days (median 13 days). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that patient-level cost and length of stay were related to clinical, demographic, hospital, and regional characteristics (R2 = 25% and 16%, respectively). After accounting for these characteristics at the patient level, considerable variation among states persisted in both cost and length of stay. In addition, states with similar adjusted lengths of stay varied widely with respect to adjusted cost. No relation was found at the state level between level of resource use and either procedural mortality or 60-day mortality/readmission rates. CONCLUSIONS: Considerable variability exists among states in patient-level cost and length of stay for CABG surgery, after adjusting to the extent possible for clinical, demographic, hospital, and regional characteristics. The lack of association at the state level between resource use and rates of mortality and hospital readmission suggests that costs could be reduced in many areas of the United States without compromising quality of care.

Aged↗
PubMed1996

Identification of preoperative variables needed for risk adjustment of short-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The Working Group Panel on the Cooperative CABG Database Project.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this consensus effort was to define and prioritize the importance of a set of clinical variables useful for monitoring and improving the short-term mortality of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). BACKGROUND: Despite widespread use of data bases to monitor the outcome of patients undergoing CABG, no consistent set of clinical variables has been defined for risk adjustment of observed outcomes for baseline differences in disease severity among patients. METHODS: Experts with a background in epidemiology, biostatistics and clinical care with an interest in assessing outcomes of CABG derived from previous work with professional societies, government or academic institutions volunteered to participate in this unsponsored consensus process. Two meetings of this ad hoc working group were required to define and prioritize clinical variables into core, level 1 or level 2 groupings to reflect their importance for relating to short-term mortality after CABG. Definitions of these 44 variables were simple and specific to enhance objectivity of the 7 core, 13 level 1 and 24 level 2 variables. Core and level 1 variables were evaluated using data from five existing data bases, and core variables only were examined in an additional two data bases to confirm the consensus opinion of the relative prognostic power of each variable. RESULTS: Multivariable logistic regression models of the seven core variables showed all to be predictive of bypass surgery mortality in some of the seven existing data sets. Variables relating to acuteness, age and previous operation proved to be the most important in all data sets tested. Variables describing coronary anatomy appeared to be least significant. Models including both the 7 core and 13 level 1 variables in five of the seven data sets showed the core variables to reflect 45% to 83% of the predictive information. However, some level 1 variables were stronger than some core variables in some data sets. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively small number of clinical variables provide a large amount of prognostic information in patients undergoing CABG.

Coronary Artery Bypass↗
PubMed1995

Outcomes of coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 24,461 patients aged 80 years or older.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass graft surgery is increasingly common in patients of age > or = 80 years. Single-institution reviews have cited a wide range of mortality results after bypass surgery in this age group, in part because of limited sample sizes. Using claims data, we examined recent national trends in the use and outcomes of bypass surgery in the very elderly. METHODS AND RESULTS: From an examination of Medicare data from 1987 through 1990, we identified 24,461 patients of age > or = 80 years who underwent bypass surgery. We compared surgical outcomes in these patients with those in Medicare patients of age 65 to 70 years. We found that the national use of bypass surgery in patients of age > or = 80 years increased 67% between 1987 and 1990. Compared with patients of age 65 to 70 years, the very elderly had significantly longer postoperative hospital stays (mean, 14.3 versus 10.4 days), higher charges (mean, $48,200 versus $38,000), and greater costs (mean, $27,200 versus $21,700). In-hospital (11.5% versus 4.4%), 1-year (19.3% versus 7.9%), and 3-year mortality rates (28.8% versus 13.1%) after bypass surgery were also significantly higher in patients of age > or = 80 years compared with younger patients. Although their initial surgical risk was high, octogenarians who underwent bypass surgery had a long-term survival rate similar to that of the general US octogenarian population. CONCLUSIONS: The use of bypass surgery in patients of age > or = 80 years in increasing. These very elderly patients face high surgical risks and accumulate significant hospital expenses. Further research is indicated to determine whether the long-term benefits from bypass surgery in the very elderly outweigh the increased procedural risks.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1995

Job strain and the prevalence and outcome of coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: It has been hypothesized that jobs that have both high psychological demands and low decision latitude ("job strain") can lead to coronary disease. The objective of this study was to test whether job strain was correlated with the presence of coronary disease at angiography or with long-term outcome in patients with angiographic coronary disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Employed patients under the age of 65 years undergoing diagnostic coronary angiography completed a self-administered questionnaire about their job duties and work environment. Job strain was measured by the method of Karasek. Patients were separated into three groups, based on extent of coronary disease: significant disease (> or = 75% stenosis), insignificant disease (> 0% but < 75% stenosis), and normal coronary arteries. Statistical analyses were performed using logistic regression and the Cox proportional hazards model. The 1489 patients enrolled had a median age of 52 years; 76% were male and 88% were white. By design, all patients were employed, 60% in white-collar jobs and only 16% in jobs requiring heavy labor. Traditional cardiac risk factors were most prevalent in the 922 patients with significant coronary artery disease, at intermediate levels in the 204 patients with insignificant disease, and least prevalent in the 363 patients with normal coronary arteries (all P < .01). Job strain was actually more common in patients with normal coronary arteries (35%) than in patients with insignificant (26%) or significant disease (25%, P < .002). In a multivariate analysis, job strain was not significantly correlated with the presence of coronary disease. Job strain was not correlated with angina frequency at the time of angiography. Job strain was not a predictor of cardiac events (cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Job strain was not correlated with the prevalence or severity of coronary artery disease in a cohort of patients undergoing coronary angiography. The outcome of patients with angiographically defined coronary disease was not affected by the level of job strain as measured by the method of Karasek.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Managing the delivery of health care: care-plans/managed care/practice guidelines.

Concerns about increasing costs of health care combined with an increasing appreciation of the variability in health care delivery practices has led to the development of strategies to better standardise health care delivery. Care-plans and practice algorithms define road maps of care and decision algorithms for individual patient conditions. When incorporated into routine clinical practice and coupled with the recording of the outcomes of care, they permit an improved understanding of how to provide more cost-effective health care. Routine integration into information systems should help to establish a continuous quality improvement model for health care delivery. Substantial problems exist, however, in the development of care-plans and integrating them into information systems and routine clinical practice.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗
PubMed1994

The relation between the volume of coronary angioplasty procedures at hospitals treating Medicare beneficiaries and short-term mortality.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have found that hospitals at which more procedures, such as coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) and other vascular surgery, are performed have lower rates of mortality related to these procedures than hospitals where fewer such procedures are performed. METHODS: We examined the relation between the number of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) procedures performed at hospitals (volume) and short-term mortality in a population of 217,836 Medicare beneficiaries 65 years of age or older who underwent angioplasty in the United States from 1987 through 1990. RESULTS: The unadjusted in-hospital mortality among patients who underwent PTCA increased from 2.5 percent among the 10 percent of patients treated in hospitals with the highest volume of such procedures to 3.9 percent among the 10 percent of patients treated in hospitals with the lowest volume. The rate of bypass surgery after PTCA also increased, from 2.8 percent among patients in the highest-volume hospitals to 5.3 percent among those in the lowest-volume hospitals. Higher rates of mortality and CABG persisted in all the groups of patients treated in hospitals that performed fewer than 100 angioplasty procedures per year in Medicare beneficiaries; this volume in Medicare beneficiaries can be extrapolated to an overall annual volume of 200 to 400 angioplasty procedures. In a logistic-regression model, the volume of PTCA procedures at a hospital was found to be a highly significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (P < 0.001). These results suggest that if the hospitals with the lowest volume had achieved the experience and technical results of the highest-volume hospitals, 381 fewer patients would have undergone CABG and there would have been 300 fewer in-hospital deaths in the population we studied. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitals that perform more PTCA procedures have lower short-term mortality rates after the procedure. These data provide evidence in support of the regionalization of angioplasty services.

Aged↗
PubMed1994

Changes in mortality after myocardial revascularization in the elderly. The national Medicare experience.

OBJECTIVE: To examine secular changes in the use and outcome of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and cardiac bypass graft surgery in the elderly. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study based on a longitudinal database created from the administrative files of Medicare. SETTING: U.S. hospitals that perform myocardial revascularization procedures covered by Medicare. PATIENTS: 225,915 consecutive patients who had angioplasty and 357,885 consecutive patients who had bypass surgery from 1987 to 1990. MEASUREMENTS: The rates of angioplasty and bypass surgery use; unadjusted 30-day and 1-year mortality rates after revascularization; and adjusted odds ratios for mortality by year of procedure for 1987 to 1990. RESULTS: From 1987 to 1990, the rates of angioplasty and bypass surgery done in the elderly increased by 55% and 18%, respectively. During this period, 30-day unadjusted mortality rates after angioplasty and bypass surgery decreased by 25% (95% CI, 22% to 28%) and 12% (CI, 10% to 14%), and 1-year mortality rates decreased by 10% (CI, 8% to 11%) and 8% (CI, 7% to 10%), respectively. After adjustment for changes in patient characteristics, 30-day mortality rates after these procedures decreased by 37% (CI, 32% to 41%) and 18% (CI, 14% to 21%), and 1-year mortality rates decreased by 22% (CI, 18% to 25%) and 19% (CI, 16% to 21%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The use of cardiac revascularization procedures in the elderly has steadily increased. Patients who had revascularization are progressively older, have more coded comorbid conditions, and present with more acute diseases. Although elderly patients have apparently higher risk profiles, mortality rates after angioplasty and bypass surgery in the elderly have decreased, suggesting a national improvement in the outcomes of these interventions. Health policy decisions concerning revascularization procedures in the elderly must consider these trends in improved outcome.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1994

Absence of sex bias in the referral of patients for cardiac catheterization.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that women with clinical evidence of coronary artery disease are less often referred for cardiac catheterization than are men. To determine whether there is sex-related bias in referral for cardiac catheterization, we prospectively studied a cohort of 410 symptomatic outpatients (280 men and 130 women) who were being evaluated with exercise testing for possible-coronary artery disease. METHODS: Before the patients underwent exercise testing, 15 cardiologists from an academic medical center were asked to predict the probability that the patients they saw in the cardiology clinic would have angiographic evidence of any obstructive coronary disease (stenosis of 75 percent or more); the probability of severe coronary disease (three-vessel or left main coronary artery disease); the probability of left main coronary artery disease; and the probability of survival one, three, and five years after the evaluation. Similar predictions were generated by previously validated statistical models with use of data collected before exercise testing from the history, physical examination, and 12-lead electrocardiography with the patient at rest. RESULTS: Overall, women were referred for cardiac catheterization significantly less often than men (18 percent vs. 27 percent, P = 0.03). As compared with men, women had a significantly lower pretest probability of coronary disease (as estimated by their physicians) and a lower rate of positive exercise-test results. After accounting for differences in these two factors, sex was not an independent predictor of referral for catheterization. Comparing physicians' estimates of outcome with those generated by the statistical models revealed no evidence that the physicians were underestimating the risk of coronary disease in women. Furthermore, physicians' predictions did not underestimate the probability of any obstructive coronary disease in men and women who subsequently underwent catheterization. CONCLUSIONS: Academic cardiologists made appropriately lower pretest predictions of categories of disease in women with possible coronary artery disease than in men, and these assessments, along with women's lower rate of positive exercise tests, rather than bias based on sex, accounted for the lower rate of catheterization among women.

Aged↗
PubMed1994

Programmed Outcome Research Teams (PORTs) and implications for clinical practice.

The spiraling cost of health care has created a health care crisis. Concerns about the appropriate use of expensive medical technologies have been heightened by health services research studies that demonstrate widespread and dramatic geographic variability in the use of tests and procedures. The Agency for Health Care Policy and Research has funded 14 Programmed Outcome Research Teams (PORTs) targeted at specific disease entities. The PORT in ischemic heart disease is examining 2 principal decisions--which patients should undergo cardiac catheterization and, following catheterization, how patients should be treated. The PORT in ischemic heart disease combines information from the literature, 18 databases, and patient preference studies in models examining these 2 decisions. The databases have also been used to develop statistical models that estimate outcomes with different therapies. The benefit of a therapy in a population can be illustrated using an empirically derived, marginal value curve that describes the expected improvement in outcome (e.g., survival) that accrues with additional procedures performed in patients who are most likely to benefit.

Cardiac Catheterization↗
PubMed1994

Effects of coronary angioplasty, coronary bypass surgery, and medical therapy on employment in patients with coronary artery disease. A prospective comparison study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare return-to-work rates after coronary angioplasty, coronary bypass surgery, and medical therapy in patients with coronary disease. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary care referral center. PATIENTS: Between March 1986 and June 1990, we enrolled 1252 patients who were younger than 65 years, who had not had previous coronary revascularization, and who were employed. All patients were followed for 1 year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: One-year employment status. RESULTS: After 1 year, 84% of patients who had coronary angioplasty were still working compared with 79% of patients who had bypass surgery and with 76% of patients who received medicine. After adjusting for the more favorable baseline characteristics of patients who had angioplasty (less severe coronary artery disease, better left ventricular function, and less functional impairment), however, no significant differences were noted in 1-year employment rates among the three groups. These adjusted 1-year return-to-work rates were 84% for angioplasty, 80% for surgery, and 79% for medicine (P > 0.05). In a random subset of 72 patients, 23 patients who had angioplasty returned to work after a median of 18 days (mean, 27 days) compared with 54 days (mean, 67 days) for 24 patients having bypass surgery and with 14 days (mean, 45 days) for 25 patients receiving medicine (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Patients who had coronary angioplasty were able to return to work earlier than those who had bypass surgery, but by 1 year no significant difference was noted in employment rates. Neither revascularization strategy improved employment rates when compared with initial treatment using medical therapy.

Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary↗
PubMed1994

Estimated contribution of coronary artery bypass graft surgery to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality: the Minnesota Heart Survey.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the possible contribution of coronary artery bypass graft surgery to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area population between 1970 and 1984. BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass graft surgery is a major contemporary therapeutic approach for coronary heart disease. Its use has increased over the past two decades because it provides relief of symptoms and, in certain circumstances, prolongs life. During the period that age-adjusted coronary heart disease mortality has decreased, the use of coronary artery bypass graft surgery has increased dramatically, suggesting a relation. METHODS: All 30- to 74-year old Minneapolis-St. Paul area residents undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery between 1970 and 1984 (9,548 patients) were registered; their medical records were abstracted; and their survival was ascertained. These data were used in a medical survival probability model using a multivariate analytical approach developed from registries of patients treated medically. The model assumed that coronary artery bypass graft surgery was not available. Two annual mortality rates were compared: the observed Minneapolis-St. Paul annual coronary heart disease mortality rate and the modeled annual coronary heart disease mortality rate. The difference between these rates was the estimated contribution of coronary artery bypass graft surgery to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates. RESULTS: Between 1970 and 1984, the estimated surgical contribution increased from 0.2% (increased mortality) to +6.6% of the annual decrease in Minneapolis-St. Paul coronary heart disease mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1970 and 1984, the contribution of coronary artery bypass graft surgery to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality, although small, gradually increased. This change appeared to be related to an increased frequency of coronary artery bypass graft surgery, improved operative mortality and changes in the clinical mix of surgical patients.

Adult↗
PubMed1993

Discordance of databases designed for claims payment versus clinical information systems. Implications for outcomes research.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the suitability of insurance claims information for use in clinical outcomes research in ischemic heart disease. DESIGN: Concordance study of two databases. SETTING: Tertiary care referral center. PATIENTS: A total of 12,937 consecutive patients hospitalized for cardiac catheterization for suspected ischemic heart disease between July 1985 and May 1990. INTERVENTIONS: Two-by-two tables were used to compute overall and kappa measures of agreement comparing clinical versus claims data for 12 important predictors of prognosis in patients with ischemic heart disease. MEASUREMENTS: Kappa statistics (agreement adjusted for chance agreement) were used to quantify agreement rates. RESULTS: Agreement rates between the clinical and claims databases ranged from 0.83 for the diagnosis of diabetes to 0.09 for the diagnosis of unstable angina (kappa values). Claims data failed to identify more than one half of the patients with prognostically important conditions, including mitral insufficiency, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, old myocardial infarction, hyperlipidemia, cerebrovascular disease, tobacco use, angina, and unstable angina, when compared with the clinical information system. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that insurance claims data lack important diagnostic and prognostic information when compared with concurrently collected clinical data in the study of ischemic heart disease. Thus, insurance claims data are not as useful as clinical data for identifying clinically relevant patient groups and for adjusting for risk in outcome studies, such as analyses of hospital mortality.

Cardiac Catheterization↗
PubMed1993

Value of the history and physical in identifying patients at increased risk for coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether information from the physician's initial evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease predicts coronary anatomy at catheterization and 3-year survival. DESIGN: Prospective validation of regression model estimates in an outpatient cohort. SETTING: University medical center. PATIENTS: A total of 1030 consecutive outpatients referred for noninvasive testing for suspected coronary artery disease; 168 of these patients subsequently underwent catheterization within 90 days. MEASUREMENTS: Information from the initial history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and chest radiograph was used to predict coronary anatomy (the likelihood of any significant coronary disease, severe disease [left main or three-vessel], and significant left main disease) among 168 catheterized patients and to estimate 3-year survival among all patients. These estimates were compared with those based on treadmill testing. Cardiovascular testing charges were calculated for all patients. RESULTS: Predicted coronary anatomy and survival closely corresponded to actual findings. Compared with the treadmill exercise test, initial evaluation was slightly better able to distinguish patients with or without any coronary disease and was similar in the ability to identify patients at increased risk for dying or with anatomically severe disease. Based on arbitrary definitions, 37% to 66% of patients were at low risk and responsible for 31% to 56% of the charges for cardiovascular testing. CONCLUSIONS: The physician's initial evaluation, despite the subjective nature of much of the information gathered, can be used to identify patients likely to benefit from further testing. The development of strategies for cost-conscious quality care must begin with the history, physical examination, and simple laboratory testing.

Aged↗
PubMed1993

Is silent ischemia on the routine admission ECG an important finding?

The authors' objective was to determine if, in the absence of known coronary artery disease, ST-T changes suggestive of silent ischemia on the admission electrocardiogram (ECG) identify a group of patients at high risk for cardiac event or death. A prospective cohort study was undertaken at the university hospital of a tertiary care center. All patients admitted to the hospital during the 5-month study period were screened. The authors found 54 patients with risk factors but no symptoms of coronary artery disease whose admission ECGs showed silent ischemia (ischemia group), and 71 patients with similar risk of coronary artery disease but without admission ECGs showing silent ischemia (control group). Three-week and 6-month incidences of angina, myocardial infarction, and death among patients in the silent ischemia and control groups were compared. Seven (13%) patients in the silent ischemia group had cardiac events or noncardiac death in the subsequent 3 weeks versus one (1%) noncardiac death in the control group (p < 0.02). At 6 months, eight (15%) patients in the silent ischemia group versus two (3%) in the control group had cardiac events (p = 0.02). It is concluded that among patients with risk factors but no symptoms of coronary artery disease, silent ischemia on the admission ECG is associated with an increased likelihood of short-term death or cardiac event.

Aged↗
PubMed1993

Comparison of analytic models for estimating the effect of clinical factors on the cost of coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

The cost of treating disease depends on patient characteristics, but standard tools for analyzing the clinical predictors of cost have deficiencies. To explore whether survival analysis techniques might overcome some of these deficiencies in the analysis of cost data, we compared ordinary least square (OLS) linear regression (with and without transformation of the data) and binary logistic regression with two survival models: the Cox proportional hazards model and a parametric model assuming a Weibull distribution. Each model was applied to data from 155 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. We examined the effects of age, sex, ejection fraction, unstable angina, and number of diseased vessels on univariable and multivariable predictions of costs. The significant univariable predictors of cost were consistent in all models: ejection fraction was significant in all five models, and age and number of diseased vessels were each significant in all but the OLS model, while sex and angina type were significant in none of the models. The significant multivariable predictors of cost, however, differed according to model: ejection fraction was a significant multivariable predictor of cost in all five models, age was significant in three models, and number of diseased vessels was significant in one model. All five models were also used to predict the costs for an average patient undergoing surgery. The Cox model provided the most accurate predictions of mean cost, median cost, and the proportion of patients with high cost. This study shows: (1) lower ejection fraction and older age are independent clinical predictors of increased cost of CABG, and (2) the Cox proportional hazards model shows considerable promise for the analysis of the impact of clinical factors upon cost.

Aged↗