Quo vadis: perinatal AIDS issues--2004.
The HIV problem will inexorably increase over the next decade, with an increasing proportionate impact upon women and children over the next decade. HIV will become endemic, essentially worldwide. Some regions in the developed world may be relatively spared if current trends continue. This may reduce the willingness to expend necessary resources, particularly if trends toward increasing isolationism continue. There are already signs of a world becoming "bored" with AIDS and the chronicity of a difficult problem. This engenders an atmosphere ripe for increasing discrimination, with the development of loopholes in protective legislation. Already in the United States, some lawsuits concerning health care access among employees have been decided in the employer's favor, permitting them to restrict access to health insurance, despite other regulations which might have protected such workers. Similarly, some HIV-infected health care workers have been dismissed or lost their privileges in the 1990s, despite passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act as well as preceding legislation. It remains to be seen how society will cope with these complicated issues. The view of AIDS in 2004 presented above is pessimistic. There are some important rays of hope. Recent innovative vaccine work and new theoretical models may put us on the road to success, both with preventive and therapeutic vaccines. In particular, the first success in eliciting protection against vaginal HIV exposure, albeit partial, was reported in mid 1993. In a simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) in vivo experimental model, cellular immunity to SIV was induced in macaques without their developing any signs of SIV infection. These macaques after rechallenge with low-dose SIV remained free of detectable SIV, so there may be an element of protection associated with specific cellular immune responses to immunodeficiency viruses. However, very high-dose SIV rechallenge experiments in similar macaques still led to acquisition of active SIV infection, suggesting that any such protection was only partial. It is also possible that cellular immune protection may be of varying efficacy against different types of exposure, particularly parenteral versus mucosal (such as sexual) exposures. There is also reason for specific optimism concerning interventions that might directly reduce the risk of perinatal transmission. Data from studies of twins suggest that a substantial proportion of perinatal transmission does not occur until after labor has commenced. Thus, caesarian sections may potentially reduce the risk of transmission to the fetus in some cases.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)