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Biomedical subjects

D A Bundy

Publications and source records attributed to D A Bundy.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
PubMed1997

The design of veterinary vaccination programmes.

The optimal design of a veterinary vaccination programme depends on both the characteristics of the vaccine and the epidemiology of the pathogen or parasite. Relevant vaccine characteristics are the proportion of those vaccinated that are initially protected, the duration of protection and the coverage achieved by the vaccination programme. The most important epidemiological parameter is the basic reproduction number, R0. Mathematical theory can integrate this information to address such questions as: whether it is possible to eliminate an infection; what proportion of hosts must be vaccinated to achieve this: what age should hosts first be vaccinated; and at what interval should hosts be revaccinated? Examples of rabies in foxes and foot-and-mouth disease in cattle suggest that theory can be used to guide the design of vaccination programmes.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Morbidity and mortality due to ascariasis: re-estimation and sensitivity analysis of global numbers at risk.

This paper presents estimates of the global numbers of people at risk from morbidity related to infection with Ascaris lumbricoides and the numbers of deaths from this infection. Morbidity is classified into 4 types: deficits in growth and fitness which are contemporaneous with infection, or permanent, overt acute illness of mild to moderate severity, and complications involving hospitalization. The estimation of morbidity is based on theoretical models of parasite distributions developed in previous papers. A sensitivity analysis is carried out in which parameters of the model are varied using a Latin hypercube sampling technique. The results estimate approximately 1300 million infections globally with 59 million at risk of some morbidity. The estimate for acute illness is 12 million cases per year with approximately 10,000 deaths. Most morbidity is in children. Sensitivity analysis suggests that infection estimates will not vary greatly with changes in parameter values but that morbidity estimates may be highly variable.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

Transmission patterns and the epidemiology of hookworm infection.

BACKGROUND: This paper presents a suite of models of hookworm transmission dynamics which vary the mixing patterns and rates of contamination and infection between children and adults. In this context mixing refers to the degree of epidemiological communication between children and adults, for example, whether adults are likely to get infected from infective material passed by children. METHODS: Three models are described which represent random mixing, no mixing and restricted mixing respectively. Child, adult and population targeted chemotherapy programmes are examined and compared between these models. Data from a hookworm control programme in Zimbabwe were analysed with respect to their fit to the various models. RESULTS: The analysis suggests that some mixing does occur and that in this study location, the sites where adults deposit faeces are more likely to lead to subsequent contamination than the sites children use. CONCLUSIONS: Mixing patterns may have a profound effect on transmission dynamics and should be considered in relation to design of control programmes.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Control of Schistosoma haematobium morbidity on Pemba Island: validity and efficiency of indirect screening tests.

Four indirect screening methods for the detection of Schistosoma haematobium morbidity are compared (history of haematuria, visual haematuria, and microhaematuria at the 1+ and 2+ positivity limit by reagent strips) in terms of their diagnostic performance under conditions of progressive decrease in prevalence of infection, intensity and risk of morbidity as a result of repeated schistosomiasis control programmes on Pemba Island, United Republic of Tanzania. The results show that the sensitivity of a history of haematuria was higher (71%) in children but lower in adults (40%), similar to the findings for visual haematuria in children (60%) and adults (40%) at baseline. However, visual haematuria had a higher specificity, positive predictive value, and efficiency than a history of haematuria in both children and adults. Microhaematuria at the 1+ positivity limit (by reagent strips) had the highest sensitivity of all the methods investigated, but the lowest specificity, positive predictive value, and efficiency. Quantitatively, the indirect methods tended to increase in specificity, negative predictive value, and efficiency during the course of the intervention programme. In contrast, positive predictive value tended to decrease, while the sensitivity remained fairly stable. Overall, these findings suggest that a history of haematuria and/or visual haematuria are appropriate methods for preliminary screening of communities to identify those at risk of morbidity. Thereafter, microhaematuria (1+ positivity limit) may be the more appropriate method for targeting intervention at the individual level.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Schools for health: Focus on health, education and the school-age child.

Mortality in children under five years old has been dramatically reduced through successful programmes of immunization and control of diarrhoeal diseases. UNICEF estimates that some 90% of children in developing regions now survive to reach school age. These survivors face new and continuing threats to their health, which can affect their physical development and may also prevent them taking full advantage of their only opportunity for formal education. The physical and mental growth of the 1000 million school-age children today will influence how the world is shaped for coming generations. Yet the health problems of this age group have received little attention. Recognizing the importance of this age group, a workshop funded by the Edna McConnell Clark Foundation was held 10-13 November 1994 in Fort Mitchell, Kentucky, USA, to review what is known about the health of school-age children, what is or can be done to improve their health, and what steps must be taken to find ways to improve the health and educational achievement of this important segment of the world's population. Don Bundy and Helen Guyatt here report on the workshop, which had three major conclusions: (1) the school-age children of developing countries face health problems that remain neglected and poorly understood; (2) an important research need is to develop simpler means of monitoring the health status of school-age children and evaluating the impact of public health interventions in this age group; and (3) two strategies are available to address this public health problem. The first is to develop further and test programmes that appear, from available evidence and pilot studies, to offer effective means of improving the health of this age group at reasonable cost, and to be sustainable; and the second is, over a longer term, to develop the capacity within countries to assess the health problems of school-age children and devise cost-effective strategies to address these problems. This report attempts, in brief form, to survey what is known about the health status of school-age children, to discuss the possible benefits to health and learning that accrue from health interventions, and to suggest some avenues currently available for both research and application.

Journal Article↗
PubMed1996

Dynamic aspects of morbidity and acquired immunity in schistosomiasis control.

In schistosomiasis control, rational planning of chemotherapy programmes is complicated by the dynamic interactions between treatment and levels of acquired immunity and morbidity in the community. In this paper, mathematical models that address the development of acquired immunity and the prevalence of morbidity are incorporated within an age-structured transmission framework to explore some of the dynamic complexities of long-term chemotherapy programmes. As well as illustrating some of the potential problems inherent in predicting the consequences of control measures, the model provides insights into the dynamics of schistosomiasis transmission and the parameters that need to be measured to further improve the design of community-based control programmes.

Humans↗
PubMed1996

Re-assessing the global prevalence and distribution of lymphatic filariasis.

This paper estimates the global burden of lymphatic filariasis based on a review of the published literature on infection and disease surveys. A method for aggregating and projecting prevalence data from individual studies to national, regional and global levels, which also facilitates the estimation of gender and age-specific burdens, is presented. The method weights in favour of the larger, and hence presumbably more reliable, studies and relies on estimated empirical relationships between gender, age, infection and disease in order to correct studies with incomplete data. The results presented here suggest that although the overall prevalence of filariasis cases is 2.0% globally (approximately totalling 119 million cases), the disease continues to be of considerable local importance, particularly in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Estimates by age and gender clearly show that, unlike other helminth infections, filariasis is mainly a disease of the adult and older age-classes and appears to be more prevalent in males. This work suggests that the derivation of more accurate estimates of the burden of filariasis will require a better understanding of both the epidemiology and the spatial aspects of infection and disease. It also suggests that filariasis is preventable based on a geographically targeted strategy for control.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1996

Past exposure and the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis infection in young children.

This study utilizes parallel, longitudinal entomological and parasitological data collected during a 5-year vector control programme in Pondicherry, South India, to quantify Wuchereria bancrofti transmission from the vector to the human population. A simple mathematical model, derived from the standard catalytic model, is used to examine the hypothesis that current infection prevalence in young children is a dynamical function of their cumulative past exposure to infective bites. Maximum likelihood fits of the model to the observed data indicate a constant child infection rate with age, above a threshold representing the pre-patent period, or equivalently, the cumulative biting intensity required to produce patent infections. Extrapolation of the model allows the crude estimation of the equilibrium microfilaria age-prevalence curve due to control. The results suggest that vector control alone may have little impact on the overall age-prevalence of infection even when sustained for long periods. These observations are discussed in terms of the likely impact of density dependent mechanisms, such as acquired immunity, on model predictions.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1996

Dynamic modeling of epidemiologic patterns of schistosomiasis morbidity.

This paper uses preliminary mathematical models to examine how the dynamic relationship between schistosomiasis infection and disease is altered by chemotherapy. Two types of morbidity are examined: an acute form that is proportional to current infection intensity and that resolves after treatment, and a chronic form that represents accumulated experience of infection and that does not resolve after treatment, or resolves according to some delay function. The analyses indicate that nonlinearities in the age and frequency distributions of infection intensity have a marked impact on the patterns of morbidity. They also suggest that treatment close to the age of maximum infection intensity (i.e., children of schoolage) is most effective in controlling morbidity in the community as a whole. These models are preliminary, and their further development to include more realistic assumptions in relation to field data is discussed.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1996

Short report: long-term serum antibody isotype responses to Strongyloides stercoralis filariform antigens in eight patients treated with ivermectin.

The enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay was used to investigate long-term changes in serum immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1), IgG4, IgE, and IgA against Strongyloides stercoralis phosphate-buffered saline-soluble filariform larval antigens in eight Jamaican patients treated with ivermectin. Patients were followed for periods of between 170 and 542 days. Based on repeated formalin-ether concentration and agar plate culture, all patients were found to be uninfected up to 18 months following chemotherapy. Generally, all antibody isotype levels decreased following treatment, although there was considerable heterogeneity among patients. In a single patient with hyperinfection, the decrease in IgG4 was marginal and may represent a treatment failure. Reduction in serum antibody isotype responses to S. stercoralis following treatment may be used to assess the effectiveness of ivermectin in treating endemic strongyloidiasis.

Animals↗
PubMed1996

Dynamic models of schistosomiasis morbidity.

Previous attempts to assess the health impact of schistosomiasis control programs on community morbidity have been limited by a lack of a theoretical framework that describes the dynamic relationships between infection and morbidity. In this paper, a model of schistosomal morbidity is developed and parameterized. Morbidity is divided into that due to current heavy infection, and early and late stages of chronic disease. The model was parameterized using data showing resolution of disease after treatment, correlations between prevalence of disease and intensity of infection and using age-morbidity profiles. The fitted parameters suggest that early manifestations of disease such as hepatomegaly in Schistosoma mansoni and S. japonicum infections would resolve relatively quickly following treatment whereas later forms of disease such as liver fibrosis resolve very slowly or not at all. Similar general conclusions were obtained with data on early and late forms of urinary tract morbidity in S. haematobium.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1996

IgG4 responses to antigens of adult Necator americanus: potential for use in large-scale epidemiological studies.

Described is an epidemiological investigation of hookworm infections in a rural community in Zimbabwe, where Necator americanus is the only human helminth species present. Among a cohort of 120 individuals the overall prevalence of infection was 78%. Intensity of infection was quantified both as egg counts (range: 0-2563 eggs per g of stool) and worm burden (range: 0-100 worms). Although both these measures provide useful quantitative data, they are tedious to determine in large-scale epidemiological studies and may present social and logistic difficulties. As an alternative screening method, we therefore investigated isotype-specific responses to adult worm antigens of N. americanus. The results show that specific IgG4 responses correlate positively and significantly with both measures of intensity and may be a useful marker of hookworm infection.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Frequency distribution of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in the vector host in relation to human host: evidence for density dependence.

This paper uses detailed entomological data from Pondicherry to compare the microfilaria distribution in vector with that of human and also to examine the evidence for the operation of density dependence on parasite transmission. Analysis showed that the distribution in vector is similar to that in human. The expected distribution derived from the fit of a zero-truncated negative binomial to the human data, closely reflected the observed microfilaria distribution in the vector. This implies that a relatively large proportion of observed microfilaria negatives in the vector population may be true zeros, as observed in human, arising from the biting on true negatives (as yet uninfected, with unmated female worms or immune) in humans, rather than attributable to the blood sampling process. Further it was found that both the prevalence of infection and the degree of parasite aggregation in the vector population falls significantly with parasite stage, implying the operation of density dependence, perhaps via parasite-induced vector mortality.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

The practicality and sustainability of vaccination as an approach to parasite control.

The development of a successful vaccine depends not only on the production of the vaccine itself, but also on the design pf the vaccination programme. This involves a better understanding of the epidemiology of the disease to be controlled, the delivery system to be used and the costs involved. This review focuses on current understanding of parasite population dynamics and epidemiology, and on the logistic experience gained from immunization programmes using existing viral and bacterial vaccines. The feasibility and sustainability of any new vaccine would greatly benefit from research into epidemiology and health systems which are conducted in parallel, rather than sequential to, vaccine development.

Animals↗
PubMed1995

Estimating the number of multiple-species geohelminth infections in human communities.

Infections with Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and the hookworm species are often found in the same communities and individuals. Hosts infected by more than one species are potentially at risk of morbidity associated with each infection. This paper describes the use of a probabilistic model to predict the prevalence of multiple-species infections in communities for which only overall prevalence data exist. The model is tested against field data, using log-linear analysis, and is found to be more effective at estimating the numbers of multiple infections involving hookworms than those involving only A. lumbicoides and T. trichiura. This latter combination of infections is found, in half the communities examined, to be more common than expected by chance. An age-stratified analysis reveals that the degree of interaction between these two infections does not alter significantly with age in the child age classes of a Malaysian population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

Age-prevalence and household clustering of Strongyloides stercoralis infection in Jamaica.

The epidemiology of Strongyloides stercoralis was studied in families of clinical (reference) cases and their neighbours at endemic foci in Jamaica. Thirteen foci were studied based on the place of residence of a reference case. For each household of a reference case, the 4 most proximal neighbourhood households (spatial controls) were included in the study. Out of 312 persons contacted 244 were followed up using questionnaires, stool examination and serology. Prevalence of infection based on stool examination was 3.5% and on ELISA 24.2%. Prevalence increased with age but was not related to gender. Reference cases were significantly older than the general study population. The prevalence of infection based on both serology and stool examination was significantly higher in reference than in neighbouring households (the reference cases, themselves, were not included in the analysis). Furthermore, prevalence of infection was highest among persons who shared a bedroom with a reference case and decreased significantly with increasing spatial separation. This is indicative of close contact transmission which has not been previously shown for a geohelminth, but which is common among microparasites.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1995

The development of an age structured model for schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control and its validation for Schistosoma mansoni.

Mathematical models are potentially useful tools to aid in the design of control programmes for parasitic diseases. In this paper, a fully age structured epidemiological model of human schistosomiasis is developed and parameterized, and used to predict trends in infection prevalence, intensity and prevalence of heavy infections over age and time during several rounds of mass and age targeted treatment. The model is validated against data from a Schistosoma mansoni control programme in Kenya.

Adolescent↗