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Biomedical subjects

D A Ahlburg

Publications and source records attributed to D A Ahlburg.

14 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1997

Determinants of extramarital sex in the Philippines.

Understanding the factors associated with sexual behaviour is critical in slowing the spread of HIV in the Philippines, where sexual transmission accounts for most HIV infections, with the majority from heterosexual activity. Further, unprotected sex is common, as is sex with prostitutes. These factors increase the risks associated with extramarital sex. From an analysis of a nationally representative sample of women, we found that a number of factors were related to women's reports of their husbands' sexual activity outside their current relationship: women report that partners who are more educated, have been in the current relationship longer, and who had sex before marriage are more likely to be engaging in sex outside the marriage. Further, men who are older, who are farmers, who live at home, and who have more educated wives, were believed to be less likely to be having extramarital sex.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Simple versus complex models: evaluation, accuracy, and combining.

"This paper argues that it is premature to decide whether simple forecasting models in demography are more (or less) accurate than complex models and whether causal models are more (or less) accurate than noncausal models. It is also too early to say under what conditions one type of model can outperform another. The paper also questions the wisdom of searching for a single best model or approach. It suggests that combining forecasts may improve accuracy." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Evaluation Studies as Topic↗
PubMed1995

The demographic and employment characteristics of home care aides: a comparison with nursing home aides, hospital aides, and other workers.

This article uses data from the 1987, 1988, and 1989 Current Population Surveys (CPS) to compare the characteristics of hospital, nursing home, and home care aides. The different types of aides were identified through cross-tabulations of the detailed industry and occupation codes available in the CPS. The results verify previous findings in the literature that home care workers tend to be older, less likely to be married, and have poorer educations than other types of aides. In addition, the three types of aides fall into a clear economic continuum with hospital aides tending to be the most affluent, followed by nursing home aides, and finally, by home care workers.

Adult↗
PubMed1990

Alternative projections of the U.S. population.

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1988

Is population growth a deterrent to development in the South Pacific?

"Some have argued that population growth deters development, while others claim that population growth either aids development or has no significant effect on development. In a sample of South Pacific nations, population growth and size were found to be unrelated to economic development, defined as GDP per capita. However, when indices of quality of life or social development such as mortality, health services and education were used, population growth and size were found to be negatively related to these indices. If these 'quality of life' indices are valued by nations, an argument may exist for policy support for family planning."

Delivery of Health Care↗
PubMed1987

Population forecasts for South Pacific nations using autoregressive models, 1985-2000.

"This paper uses an autoregressive statistical model to forecast population for Fiji, Western Samoa, Tonga, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu and compares these forecasts with those obtained from other methods. The growth rate of population is predicted to continue to fall in Fiji and Tonga, rise a little for Western Samoa, and rise considerably in Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. The implications of the forecasts for recent government development plans are also discussed."

Demography↗
PubMed1984

Socioeconomic ramifications of changing cohort size: an analysis of U.S. postwar suicide rates by age and sex.

This paper presents a relative cohort size model of suicide. The model states that as relative cohort size (the ratio of younger to older workers) rises, income and income aspirations diverge for the young. One possible extreme reaction to this disequilibrium is suicide. The model explains the variation in age- and sex-specific suicide rates for the United States over the period 1948 to 1976. It identifies the direct effect of changes in cohort size on suicide rates as well as the indirect effect operating through other demographic variables. The model predicts the suicide rates for males above 45 years of age to rise and those for all other groups to decline. For most groups this is a reversal of recent movements in their suicide rates.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1982

The new Kuznets cycle: a test of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter hypothesis.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model of the effect of the size of one generation on the size of the succeeding generation. An attempt is made "to identify and test empirically each component of the Easterlin-Wachter-Wachter model..., to show how the components collapse to give a closed demographic model of generation size, and to investigate the impacts of relative cohort size on the economic performance of a cohort." The models derived are then used to generate forecasts of the U.S. birth rate to the year 2050. The results provide support for the major components of the original model.

Americas↗
PubMedDate not supplied

How accurate are the U.S. Bureau of the Census projections of total live births.

"The accuracy of total live birth forecasts issued by the U.S. Bureau of the Census was analysed. Forecast accuracy has not improved significantly since 1950. Further, the forecasts are not more accurate than several naive alternatives. Moving from a period methodology to a cohort methodology improved forecast accuracy for certain forecasts. [It is demonstrated that] the Bureau of the Census systematically underestimated total births in the upswing and overestimated in the downswing."

Americas↗