Biomedical subjects

Christopher M Kribs-Zaleta

Publications and source records attributed to Christopher M Kribs-Zaleta.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2004

To switch or taper off: the dynamics of saturation.

Many situations in population biology involve a rate--typically a contact or recruitment rate--which increases linearly for small populations but reaches a maximum value (saturates) for large populations. Models for populations of variable size need to incorporate both characteristics to predict behavior accurately. This can be done by defining the rate as a continuous, piecewise linear function with a switch point, or via a Verhulst-type (smooth) saturation function. This paper presents several examples of both approaches and draws some conclusions about the differences from a modeling perspective.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2004

Effects of education, vaccination and treatment on HIV transmission in homosexuals with genetic heterogeneity.

Genetic studies report the existence of a mutant allele Delta32 of CCR5 chemokine receptor gene at high allele frequencies (approximately 10%) in Caucasian populations. The presence of this allele is believed to provide partial or full resistance to HIV. In this study, we look at the impact of education, temporarily effective vaccines and therapies on the dynamics of HIV in homosexually active populations. In our model, it is assumed that some individuals possess one or two mutant alleles (like Delta32 of CCR5) that prevent the successful invasion or replication of HIV. Our model therefore differentiates by genetic and epidemiological status and naturally ignores the reproduction process. Furthermore, HIV infected individuals are classified as rapid, normal or slow progressors. In this complex setting, the basic reproductive number R0 is derived in various situations. The separate or combined effects of therapies, education, vaccines, and genetic resistance are analyzed. Our results support the conclusions of Hsu Schmitz that some integrated intervention strategies are far superior to those based on a single approach. However, treatment programs may have effects which counteract each other, as may genetic resistance.

AIDS Vaccines↗

PubMed2004

Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS.

Control of the 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak control. The transmission rate and isolation effectiveness have the largest fractional effect on R0. We estimated the distribution of the reproductive number R0 under perfect isolation conditions. The distribution lies in the interquartile range 0.19-1.08, with a median of 0.49. Even though the median of R0 is <1, we found that 25% of our R0 distribution lies at R0 > 1, even with perfect isolation. This implies the need to simultaneously apply more than one method of control.

Communicable Disease Control↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Vaccination strategies and backward bifurcation in an age-since-infection structured model.

We consider models for a disease with acute and chronic infective stages, and variable infectivity and recovery rates, within the context of a vaccination campaign. Models for SIRS and SIS disease cycles exhibit backward bifurcations under certain conditions, which complicate the criteria for success of the vaccination campaign by making it possible to have stable endemic states when R(0)<1. We also show the extent to which the forms of the infectivity and recovery functions affect the possibility of backward bifurcations. SIR and SI models examined do not exhibit this behavior.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗