Biomedical subjects

Carl P Schmertmann

Publications and source records attributed to Carl P Schmertmann.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2005

Empirical Bayes estimation of demographic schedules for small areas.

In this article, we analyze empirical Bayes (EB) methods for estimating small-area rate schedules. We develop EB methods that treat schedules as vectors and use adaptive neighborhoods to keep estimates appropriately local. This method estimates demographic rates for local subpopulations by borrowing strength not only from similar individuals elsewhere but also from other groups in the same area and from regularities in schedules across locations. EB is substantially better than standard methods when rates have strong spatial and age patterns. We illustrate this method with estimates of age-specific fertility schedules for over 3,800 Brazilian municipalities.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

A simple method for estimating age-specific rates from sequential cross sections.

I develop and demonstrate a simple formula for estimating age-specific event rates for a period from "before" and "after" cross sections. The general approach applies to a wide range of estimation problems in demography, the social sciences, and epidemiology. The method arises from the formal mathematics of unstable populations and is similar in spirit to "variable-r" methods. Unlike those methods, however, the new technique does not require specialized computer programming or iterative calculations, and event rates can be calculated directly from cross-sectional data in simple spreadsheets. The article includes a formal mathematical exposition of the method, simulation tests, and several examples.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil.

Using microdata from the Brazilian demographic censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1991, aggregated into 518 consistently defined spatial units called microregions, we estimated fertility and mortality and constructed indicators of development and living conditions in the rural and urban areas of the microregions in each census. We then estimated cross-sectional and fixed-effects models to answer questions about the degree to which changes in these indicators are associated with changes in fertility and whether the relationship between fertility and development shifts through time. We found strong and consistent relationships between the decline in fertility and measurable changes in social and economic circumstances.

Adult↗