Epithelial atypia in hamster cheek pouches treated repeatedly with calcium hydroxide.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to C S Muir.
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Cancer mortality and morbidity data are usually collected and published by calendar time period and by age class. Transformation of the age-specific incidence or mortality rates into those for birth cohorts is readily undertaken when one age class of each time period corresponds to a given cohort: a requirement that is often not satisfied. The authors propose a method for the computation of birth cohort age-specific incidence rates given irregular cross-sectional data. The procedure is based on a cross-sectional interpolation of cumulated population and case figures, from which cohort rates can be derived. Using the method several examples of trends in cancer incidence by birth cohort are discussed.
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While rare in most parts of the world, cancer of the nasopharynx is shown to be very common in Southern Chinese whether living in South China or elsewhere, is of intermediate level in a variety of Mongoloid populations such as Malays, Thais, Javanese and Vietnamese and the indigeneous peoples of Borneo, yet uncommon in North China and very rare in Japan. Moderate frequencies are seen in parts of the Maghreb, Malta, the Sudan and possibly East Africa. Occupational risk has not been demonstrated and case-control studies have generally been negative. Studies of migrants, notably Chinese of the US, have shown a diminution of mortality for the second and third generation, yet their risk still remains much higher than for white Americans. There is no convincing evidence of elevated risk among low-risk Caucasian populations living in South East Asia. The above findings, which have been held to indicate a genetic predisposition to an unknown environmental agent, are reviewed in the light of the recent discoveries of a characteristic HL-A profile in the high risk Cantonese. Several investigations of the HL-A profiles of groups of contrasting incidence are suggested as these may be of significance in relation to the postulated causal role of the Epstein-Barr virus for this neoplasm.
MacMahon and Pugh define epidemiology as the use of knowledge on the frequency and distribution of disease to search for determinants. This paper demonstrates that a multinational approach in cancer epidemiology can be of great value in at least four circumstances: namely, the compilation and standardization of data, the assessment of risk, the pooling of study populations to obtain interpretable results, and the provision of resources for specific epidemiologic investigations. One or two examples are given for each category--the determination of international cancer incidence patterns, the evaluation of the risk posed by chemicals to man, assessment of the effects of low doses of ionizing radiation, determination of the long-term effects of exposure to asbestos substitutes, and studies on the influence of diet on esophageal cancer.
The value of routinely collected cancer statistics for hypothesis generation and for risk prediction is examined in relation to age, place, migration, time, anatomical sub-site, morphology, and occupation. Current descriptive epidemiological data of this nature reflect the carcinogenic exposures of the past 40 years, and are thus useful for generating hypotheses. While they do not permit prediction of risk associated with a new substance entering the environment, once etiology for a given cancer is known, the likely course of events unless preventive action is taken can be forecast on the basis of existing statistics.