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C R Rinaldo

Publications and source records attributed to C R Rinaldo.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Viability and recovery of peripheral blood mononuclear cells cryopreserved for up to 12 years in a multicenter study.

The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), an ongoing prospective study of the natural history of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), has stored biologic specimens, including peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), from 5,622 participants for up to 12 years. The purpose of the present analysis was to evaluate the quality of the PBMC in the MACS repository in order to test the validity and feasibility of nested retrospective studies and to guide the planning of future repositories. PBMC were collected from MACS participants at four centers at 6-month intervals from 1984 to 1995, cryopreserved, and transported to a central repository for storage. A total of 596 of these specimens were subsequently tested for viability and used to evaluate cell function, to conduct immunophenotype analysis, or to isolate HIV. Simple linear regression models were applied to evaluate trends in recovery and viability over time and by center. Results indicated that from a nominal 10(7) cells cryopreserved per vial at all four centers, the median number of viable cells recovered was at least 5 x 10(6) (50% of the number stored) and the median viability was at least 90%. Results suggested that cryopreserved cells can be stored for at least 12 years with no general tendency toward cell loss over time. Furthermore, there were no statistically significant changes in the percent cell viability according to the length of time frozen, regardless of HIV serostatus or the level of CD4(+) lymphocytes. Storing 10(7) PBMC per vial yields sufficient viable cells for phenotypic and/or functional analysis. Results from the MACS provide the basis for the planning of future repositories for use by investigators with similar research goals.

Blood Preservation↗

Effects of anticoagulant, processing delay, and assay method (branched DNA versus reverse transcriptase PCR) on measurement of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 RNA levels in plasma.

We conducted two studies to determine the potential influence of delays in blood processing, type of anticoagulant, and assay method on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA levels in plasma. The first was an experimental study in which heparin- and EDTA-anticoagulated blood samples were collected from 101 HIV-positive individuals and processed to plasma after delays of 2, 6, and 18 h. HIV-1 RNA levels in each sample were then measured by both branched-DNA (bDNA) and reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) assays. Compared to samples processed within 2 h, the loss (decay) of HIV-1 RNA in heparinized blood was significant (P < 0.05) but small after 6 h (bDNA assay, -0.12 log(10) copies/ml; RT-PCR, -0.05 log(10) copies/ml) and after 18 h (bDNA assay, -0.27 log(10) copies/ml; RT-PCR, -0.15 log(10) copies/ml). Decay in EDTA-anticoagulated blood was not significant after 6 h (bDNA assay, -0.002 log(10) copies/ml; RT-PCR, -0.02 log(10) copies/ml), but it was after 18 h (bDNA assay, -0.09 log(10) copies/ml; RT-PCR, -0.09 log(10) copies/ml). Only 4% of samples processed after 6 h lost more than 50% (>/=0.3 log(10) copies/ml) of the HIV-1 RNA, regardless of the anticoagulant or the assay that was used. The second study compared HIV-1 RNA levels in samples from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS; samples were collected in heparin-containing tubes in 1985, had a 6-h average processing delay, and were assayed by bDNA assay) and the British Columbia Drug Treatment Program (BCDTP) (collected in EDTA- or acid citrate dextrose-containing tubes in 1996 and 1997, had a 2-h maximum processing delay, and were assayed by RT-PCR). HIV-1 RNA levels in samples from the two cohorts were not significantly different after adjusting for CD4(+)-cell count and converting bDNA assay values to those corresponding to the RT-PCR results. In summary, the decay of HIV-1 RNA measured in heparinized blood after 6 h was small (-0.05 to -0.12 log(10) copies/ml), and the minor impact of this decay on HIV-1 RNA concentrations in archived plasma samples of the MACS was confirmed by the similarity of CD4(+)-cell counts and assay-adjusted HIV-1 RNA concentrations in the MACS and BCDTP.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Consistent viral evolutionary changes associated with the progression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

To understand the high variability of the asymptomatic interval between primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection and the development of AIDS, we studied the evolution of the C2-V5 region of the HIV-1 env gene and of T-cell subsets in nine men with a moderate or slow rate of disease progression. They were monitored from the time of seroconversion for a period of 6 to 12 years until the development of advanced disease in seven men. Based on the analysis of viral divergence from the founder strain, viral population diversity within sequential time points, and the outgrowth of viruses capable of utilizing the CXCR4 receptor (X4 viruses), the existence of three distinct phases within the asymptomatic interval is suggested: an early phase of variable duration during which linear increases ( approximately 1% per year) in both divergence and diversity were observed; an intermediate phase lasting an average of 1.8 years, characterized by a continued increase in divergence but with stabilization or decline in diversity; and a late phase characterized by a slowdown or stabilization of divergence and continued stability or decline in diversity. X4 variants emerged around the time of the early- to intermediate-phase transition and then achieved peak representation and began a decline around the transition between the intermediate and late phases. The late-phase transition was also associated with failure of T-cell homeostasis (defined by a downward inflection in CD3(+) T cells) and decline of CD4(+) T cells to </=200 cells/microliter. The strength of these temporal associations between viral divergence and diversity, viral coreceptor specificity, and T-cell homeostasis and subset composition supports the concept that the phases described represent a consistent pattern of viral evolution during the course of HIV-1 infection in moderate progressors. Recognition of this pattern may help explain previous conflicting data on the relationship between viral evolution and disease progression and may provide a useful framework for evaluating immune damage and recovery in untreated and treated HIV-1 infections.

Base Sequence↗

Comparison of cytomegalovirus antigenemia and culture assays in patients on and off antiviral therapy.

We examined 1,869 consecutive blood specimens from 529 patients (>80% organ transplant recipients) for detection of CMV by antigenemia and culture assays, and compared results between patients on and off antiviral therapy. All 1,869 specimens were tested by the shell vial assay and antigenemia, and 503 were also tested by standard tube culture. The overall positivity rate for each test was 17.0% for antigenemia, 1.8% for shell vial culture assay, and 0.7% by tube culture. No specimens were positive by either shell vial or tube culture, while negative by antigenemia. These findings were consistent across all organ transplant and other patient types. Shell vial positivity was associated with higher antigenemia levels in patients either on or off anti-CMV drug therapy. Among the shell vial positive specimens, the antigenemia counts were higher in patients on antiviral drug therapy as compared to those not on therapy. We conclude that the pp65 antigenemia assay is superior to culture methods for detection of CMV in blood, particularly for patients on anti-CMV drug treatment. Additionally, its quantitative nature renders the antigenemia assay an excellent tracking tool for both resolution of asymptomatic, low level CMV reactivations and response of CMV infection to antiviral treatment.

Adolescent↗

Association of HLA profiles with early plasma viral load, CD4+ cell count and rate of progression to AIDS following acute HIV-1 infection. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Host genetic factors, such as HLA alleles, play an important role in mediating the course of HIV-1 disease progression through largely undefined mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of HLA markers with HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load and other factors associated with course of disease progression in HIV-1 infection. DESIGN AND METHODS: A group of 139 HIV-1 seroconverters from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study had been typed for a variety of HLA markers. HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load was measured from frozen plasma specimens obtained approximately 9 months following seroconversion. CD4+ cell counts were available from the same study visit. Statistical analysis was performed using survival techniques and linear regression models to quantify the relative associations of an HLA score profile, HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load, CD4+ cell count and age with each other and with rate of progression to AIDS and death. RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards models showed statistically significant differences in time to AIDS by HLA score profile category per unit increase [relative hazard (RH), 0.64; P < 0.0001], HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load per 10-fold increase (RH, 2.04; P = 0.0003), and CD4+ cell count per 100 cell (x 10(6)/l) increase (RH, 0.90; P = 0.02). Multivariate linear regression showed that viral load was 39% lower (P = 0.0001) for each unit increase in HLA score profile and 13% lower (P = 0.002) for each 100 cell (x 10(6)/l) increase in CD4+ cell count. CONCLUSION: The means by which the HLA score profile influences the time to AIDS is probably through immunologic responses that affect the rate of HIV-1 replication, as manifested by the HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load during the first 6-12 months following acute infection.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Anti-HIV type 1 memory cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses associated with changes in CD4+ T cell numbers in progression of HIV type 1 infection.

We investigated memory cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTLm) responses to HIV-1 as a determinant of HIV-1 disease progression, in relation to plasma HIV-1 load and T lymphocyte numbers in a longitudinal study of 14 homosexual men with incident HIV-1 infection. Study participants were selected who exhibited failure of T cell homeostasis, i.e., a downward inflection in CD3+ T cells that occurs in >75% of persons 1.5 to 2.5 years before development of AIDS, and compared with participants who developed low CD4+ T cell counts associated with possible T cell homeostasis failure, a subject who progressed rapidly to AIDS without well-defined T cell inflection, and subjects who had long-term preservation of T cell homeostasis (nonprogressors). High CTLm responses against Gag, but not Pol or Env, soon after seroconversion were associated with a slower loss of CD4+ T cells 1-4 years after seroconversion. Anti-Env CTLm responses decreased in most subjects around the time that T cell homeostasis failed. Plasma HIV-1 RNA increased exponentially (1.59-fold per year) over the 5 years preceding failure of T cell homeostasis, and there was a shift from a non-syncytium-inducing/CCR5 coreceptor phenotype of HIV-1 to a syncytium-inducing/CXCR4 phenotype, regardless of high or increasing levels of anti-HIV-1 CTLm during this time. These observations suggest that decreases in CTLm and increasing virus load are independent factors contributing to HIV-1 disease progression.

CD4 Lymphocyte Count↗

Replication-defective HIV as a vaccine candidate.

Live attenuated vaccines prepared from simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) have provided the best protective immunity in challenge experiments. In animals vaccinated with attenuated SIV, immune responses may be elicited owing to endogenous expression of native SIV proteins and/or antigen presentation in the native replication site of virus. However, replication-competent viral vaccines raise safety concerns for clinical trials in humans. To ensure the safety and maintain the immunogenicity of a live, attenuated vaccine, we have developed a replication-defective HIV pseudotyped with vesicular stomatitis virus G protein (VSV-G). The polymerase gene of HIV was truncated to construct the replication-defective HIV. This pseudotyped HIV can infect many cell types, including human and simian cells, and undergoes only one round of replication. Furthermore, antibody immune response can be detected in mice immunized with VSV-G-pseudotyped replication-defective HIV.

AIDS Vaccines↗

Evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 envelope sequences in infected individuals with differing disease progression profiles.

Sequence variation displayed by the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) has been proposed to be linked to the pathogenesis of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). To assess viral evolution during the course of infection, we evaluated sequence variability in the env variable domains in four HIV-1-infected individuals exhibiting differing profiles of CD4+ T cell decline when followed from seroconversion until the development of AIDS or loss of followup. Proviral sequences encoding the V3-V5 region of gp 120 were obtained following PCR amplification of peripheral blood mononuclear cell DNA and cloning. Virus in each patient was relatively homogeneous early in infection and then diverged with time, more consistently at its nonsynonymous sites. Just prior to or coincident with a rapid decline in CD4+ T cell numbers, sequences were found with basic amino acid substitutions clustered within and downstream of the gp 120 V3 domain. Within the constraints of the current data set, we conclude that the virus appears to continually accumulate changes in its amino acid sequences well into the time of marked CD4+ T cell decline.

Amino Acid Sequence↗

Plasma viral load and CD4+ lymphocytes as prognostic markers of HIV-1 infection.

BACKGROUND: The rate of disease progression among persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) varies widely, and the relative prognostic value of markers of disease activity has not been defined. OBJECTIVE: To compare clinical, serologic, cellular, and virologic markers for their ability to predict progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and death during a 10-year period. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter cohort study. SETTING: Four university-based clinical centers participating in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. PATIENTS: 1604 men infected with HIV-1. MEASUREMENTS: The markers compared were oral candidiasis (thrush) or fever; serum neopterin levels; serum beta 2-microglobulin levels; number and percentage of CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ lymphocytes; and plasma viral load, which was measured as the concentration of HIV-1 RNA found using a sensitive branched-DNA signal-amplification assay. RESULTS: Plasma viral load was the single best predictor of progression to AIDS and death, followed (in order of predictive strength) by CD4+ lymphocyte count and serum neopterin levels, serum beta 2-microglobulin levels, and thrush or fever. Plasma viral load discriminated risk at all levels of CD4+ lymphocyte counts and predicted their subsequent rate of decline. Five risk categories were defined by plasma HIV-1 RNA concentrations: 500 copies/mL or less, 501 to 3000 copies/mL, 3001 to 10000 copies/mL, 10001 to 30000 copies/mL, and more than 30000 copies/mL. Highly significant (P < 0.001) differences in the percentages of participants who progressed to AIDS within 6 years were seen in the five risk categories: 5.4%, 16.6%, 31.7%, 55.2%, and 80.0%, respectively. Highly significant (P < 0.001) differences in the percentages of participants who died of AIDS within 6 years were also seen in the five risk categories: 0.9%, 6.3%, 18.1%, 34.9%, and 69.5%, respectively. A regression tree incorporating both HIV-1 RNA measurements and CD4+ lymphocyte counts provided better discrimination of outcome than did either marker alone; use of both variables defined categories of risk for AIDS within 6 years that ranged from less than 2% to 98%. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma viral load strongly predicts the rate of decrease in CD4+ lymphocyte count and progression to AIDS and death, but the prognosis of HIV-infected persons is more accurately defined by combined measurement of plasma HIV-1 RNA and CD4+ lymphocytes.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Loss of T cell receptor Vbeta repertoires in HIV type 1-infected SCID-hu mice.

Late-stage HIV-1 disease in humans has been associated with perturbations of the T cell receptor (TCR) Vbeta repertoire. It is not known if the observed loss of certain Vbeta families is attributable directly to HIV-1 infection or whether this is a consequence of multiple opportunistic infections. Putative HIV-1-associated superantigens have been postulated to be the cause of the perturbed TCR Vbeta repertoire and the subsequent CD4+ T cell depletion in HIV-1-infected humans. In this study, we examined the human TCR Vbeta repertoire in SCID-hu mice, housed in a pathogen-free environment and infected with a molecularly cloned virus strain, to ascertain directly the effect of HIV-1 on the human TCR Vbeta repertoire in the absence of other infectious agents. We demonstrate that mock-infected human thymus/liver (Thy/Liv) implants in SCID-hu mice have complete TCR Vbeta repertoires, reflective of a normal human thymus. However, HIV-1-infected implants in SCID-hu mice had depleted TCR Vbeta repertoires, corresponding with thymocyte depletion. These results indicate that HIV-1-specific mechanisms are the cause of the TCR Vbeta repertoire depletion in infected implants. However, these thymocyte depletions were not restricted to specific TCR Vbeta subsets. These results are not consistent with the hypothesis that HIV-1 acts as a superantigen in vivo. The disruption of the TCR Vbeta repertoire in the human Thy/Liv implants of the SCID-hu mice suggests that HIV-1 infection may be influencing T cell development in the thymus, contributing to both the overall CD4+ T cell depletion in AIDS and limited TCR repertoire diversity.

Animals↗

Comparison of commercially available antibody reagents for the cytomegalovirus pp65 antigenemia assay.

BACKGROUND: The Argene Biosoft 1C3 and the Biotest C10,C11 monoclonal antibodies are two of the most commonly used commercially available antibody reagents for the cytomegalovirus (CMV) pp65 antigenemia assay. OBJECTIVES: The sensitivities of these two reagents were compared in peripheral blood specimens received for CMV antigenemia testing. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 1149 peripheral blood specimens were processed for CMV antigenemia testing. Duplicate slides were stained with the Biosoft 1C3 and Biotest C10,C11 monoclonal antibodies. RESULTS: A total of 158 specimens gave a positive result by one or both antibodies. One hundred and forty five were positive by the Biosoft antibody and 130 were positive by the Biotest antibody. Positive cell counts were significantly higher on cell preparations stained by the Biosoft antibody (Wilcoxon signed rank, P < 0.001) and the Biosoft antibody detected twice as many low-level positive specimens as the Biotest. CONCLUSIONS: The Biosoft antibody reagent was superior to the Biotest reagent for the detection of CMV antigenemia. This is an important factor since early detection is essential for appropriate initiation of preemptive antiviral therapy, particularly in transplant recipients at high risk of CMV disease.

Antibodies, Monoclonal↗

Distinguishing baboon cytomegalovirus from human cytomegalovirus: importance for xenotransplantation.

The severe shortage of human organs for transplantation is the driving force behind xenotransplant research. Nonhuman primates, particularly baboons, are potential sources of organs and tissues. Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is the most common donor-associated infection after allotransplantation. Baboon cytomegalovirus (BCMV) is endemic in baboon populations and therefore is a potential cause of donor-associated disease after xenotransplantation. Accordingly, the ability for BCMV to grow in human cells was determined and a sensitive method to distinguish BCMV from HCMV was developed. Human fibroblasts were permissive for BCMV, isolates exhibited cytopathology characteristic of HCMV, and herpesvirus-like virions were observed by electron microscopy. BCMV and HCMV could be distinguished by restriction fragment length polymorphism patterns and by polymerase chain reaction with primers targeting the BCMV major immediate-early gene promoter. These methods can be used to evaluate BCMV pathogenicity in laboratory and clinical xenotransplant trials.

Animals↗

High viral load in semen of human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected men at all stages of disease and its reduction by therapy with protease and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors.

Seminal viral load is likely to be directly related to the sexual transmissibility of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). However, it is not clear whether the level of HIV-1 in semen varies with the stage of infection and whether antiretroviral therapy reduces seminal viral load. A nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) technique was used to quantify HIV-1 RNA as an indicator of infectious viral load in semen and blood plasma of homosexual men with different stages and durations of HIV-1 infection. The median viral load in a cross section of 34 men was 11,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml (range, <400 to 1.3 x 10(7) copies/ml) in whole semen and 5,238 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml (range, <400 to 2.8 x 10(5) copies/ml) in seminal plasma, which is 10- to 1,000-fold higher than previous estimates. Viral loads in whole semen and seminal plasma were strongly correlated with blood plasma viral load (P < 0.001) but not with blood CD4+ T-cell count (P = 0.420). Longitudinal analysis of eight subjects who progressed to AIDS showed that seminal viral load increased in most cases, with viral load consistently higher in blood plasma than in semen. Viral loads in semen and blood plasma decreased markedly in six other patients following initiation of potent combination therapy with a protease inhibitor (indinavir) and a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (DMP-266). These findings have important implications for the biology of sexual transmission of HIV-1 and its potential reduction by antiretroviral therapy.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Cytotoxic T lymphocytes and viral turnover in HIV type 1 infection.

To understand the role of the immune system in limiting HIV type 1 replication, it is critical to know to what extent the rapid turnover of productively infected cells is caused by viral cytopathicity or by immune-mediated lysis. We show that uncultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells of many patients contain cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) that lyse target cells-at plausible peripheral blood mononuclear cell-to-target ratios-with half-lives of less than 1 day. In 23 patients with CD4 counts ranging from 10 to 900 per microliter, the average rate of CTL-mediated lysis corresponds to a target cell half-life of 0.7 day. We develop mathematical models to calculate the turnover rate of infected cells subjected to immune-mediated lysis and viral cytopathicity and to estimate the fraction of cells that are killed by CTL as opposed to virus. The models provide new interpretations of drug treatment dynamics and explain why the observed rate of virus decline is roughly constant for different patients. We conclude that in HIV type 1 infection, CTL-mediated lysis can reduce virus load by limiting virus production, with small effects on the half-life of infected cells.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Virologic and serologic markers of rapid progression to AIDS after HIV-1 seroconversion.

The association between early virologic and immunologic events after human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection and progression of HIV-1 infection to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was studied among 59 homosexual men with documented time of seroconversion. Epidemiologic factors, such as number of lifetime sexual partners, history of sexually transmitted diseases, and other factors, also were studied. All 17 seroconverters in the cohort who developed AIDS within 3 years (rapid progressors = RPs) were compared with 42 men without AIDS for at least 6 years seroconversion (nonrapid progressors = non-RPs). Plasma levels of HIV-1 RNA, p24 antigen, antibodies to HIV-1 structural genes, beta-2 microglobulin, neopterin, and interferon-alpha were measured at four time points: (a) the last seronegative visit, (b) the first seropositive visit, (c) the visit closest to AIDS (or the corresponding visit for the non-RPs) and (d) 6 years after seroconversion (for non-RPs). Up to seroconversion, the RPs had a significantly higher number of lifetime sexual partners than non-RPs (503 versus 171, respectively). At the first seropositive visit, RPs had significantly higher concentrations of plasma HIV-1 RNA (p < 0.01) and prevalence of p24 antigenemia (p < 0.001) and significantly lower levels of antibodies to the HIV-1 gag proteins p17 and p24 (p < 0.01-0.001) compared with non-RPs. These differences increased during follow-up visits. Antibodies to p66 and gp120 were significantly different only at the visit closet to AIDS (p < 0.001), as were beta-2 microglobulin and interferon alpha. These findings suggest that early virologic-immunologic events after HIV-1 infection may determine the rate of progression to AIDS. Anti-gag immune response may prevent rapid progression of HIV-1 disease and should be considered for future vaccine studies.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Seroconversion to antibodies against Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus-related latent nuclear antigens before the development of Kaposi's sarcoma.

BACKGROUND: If Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is the cause of Kaposi's sarcoma, serologic evidence of infection should be present in patients before the disease develops. METHODS: Using an immunoblot assay for two latent nuclear antigens of KSHV, we tested serum samples from homosexual male patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) with and without Kaposi's sarcoma (HIV-infected men with hemophilia), HIV-seronegative blood donors, and HIV-seronegative patients with high titers of antibodies against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). Serial serum samples obtained from patients with Kaposi's sarcoma before the diagnosis of the disease were tested for evidence of seroconversion. RESULTS: Of 40 patients with Kaposi's sarcoma, 32 (80 percent) were positive for antibodies against KSHV antigens by the immunoblot assay, as compared with only 7 of 40 homosexual men (18 percent) without Kaposi's sarcoma immediately before the onset of AIDS. Of 122 blood donors, 22 EBV-infected patients, and 20 HIV-infected men with hemophilia, none were seropositive. When studied by the immunoblot assay over a period of 13 to 103 months, 21 of the 40 patients with Kaposi's sarcoma (52 percent) seroconverted 6 to 75 months before the clinical appearance of Kaposi's sarcoma. The median duration of antibody seropositivity for KSHV-related latent nuclear antigens before the diagnosis of Kaposi's sarcoma was 33 months. CONCLUSIONS: In most patients with kaposi's sarcoma and AIDS, seroconversion to positivity for antibodies against KSHV-related nuclear antigens occurs before the clinical appearance of Kaposi's sarcoma. This supports the hypothesis that Kaposi's sarcoma results from infection with KSHV.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Prognosis in HIV-1 infection predicted by the quantity of virus in plasma.

The relation between viremia and clinical outcome in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) has important implications for therapeutic research and clinical care. HIV-1 RNA in plasma was quantified with a branched-DNA signal amplification assay as a measure of viral load in a cohort of 180 seropositive men studied for more than 10 years. The risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and death in study subjects, including those with normal numbers of CD4+ T cells, was directly related to plasma viral load at study entry. Plasma viral load was a better predictor of progression to AIDS and death than was the number of CD4+ T cells.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Projecting disease when death is likely.

Projection disease incidence, prevalence, and net morbidity is often needed when individuals are likely to die, either disease free or after the disease has developed. Examples of this include remission of cancer or heart disease in elderly people who can die from these or other causes and occurrence of a particular acquired immune deficiency syndrome illness in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) disease. Death is not an ancillary event but, rather, indicates either and end to disease morbidity or an end to risk to ever develop the disease. Thus, time to disease survival analyses that censor disease-free individuals at death can produce misleading results. The paper describes several useful quantifications of disease and death for this setting. A paradigm that utilizes Kaplan-Meier functions to estimate these quantities is introduced. The approach anchors on a four-stage disease/death model: stage A, living without disease; stage B, dead without ever developing disease; stage C, developed the disease and living; and stage D, dead after developing the disease. An application is made to projecting cytomegalovirus disease in a cohort of HIV-1-infected users of zidovudine and Pneumocystis prophylaxis from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) during 1989-1993. At 3 years after a CD4+ count below 100/microliters, a man had an 18.7%, 46.3%, 5.3% or 29.9% chance, respectively, to be in stage A, B, C, or D. This man, on average, had 0.28 years of cytomegalovirus morbidity during these 3 years.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗