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Biomedical subjects

C J Mode

Publications and source records attributed to C J Mode.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1991

Stochastic methods for short term projections of symptomatic HIV disease.

We designed and implemented stochastic methods for short term projections of HIV disease at the local level, that accommodate various states or stages of the disease. We gave particular attention to projection of the number of patients with HIV disease who need care, when durations of stay in these various states depend on current methods for treating opportunistic infections. We consider two types of data as input to these projections. One concerns seroprevalence surveys conducted over time and from which we can obtain time series estimates of the numbers of HIV-infected individuals. The other is a reported time series of AIDS cases adjusted for delays in reporting. Several projections, with data from the City of Philadelphia, illustrate this method. In addition, we consider a Monte Carlo method for computing confidence bounds on a projection.

Confidence Intervals↗
PubMed1991

A stochastic model for the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population.

A non-age-dependent model, describing the evolution of a bisexual population, is developed in this paper and applied to projecting an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population. Included in the formulation are frequency- and non-frequency-dependent rules of partnership formation as well as five states of HIV disease, affecting the probability of infection per sexual contact. Results from computer experiments, designed to study the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population fed by single males with a 50% prevalence of HIV infection prior to becoming active in heterosexual partnerships, are reported. In these experiments, the only source of HIV infection for females was sexual contacts with infected males within partnerships. Data on the probability of infection per sexual contact with an infected partner and the number of sexual contacts per month were incorporated into the model. However, the numbers used for the initial population of singles, couples, and those becoming sexually active per month were hypothetical. Even though the prevalence of HIV infection among males entering heterosexual partnerships was high, after 30 years the projected prevalence of HIV infection among females ranged from about 10 to 15% depending in part on the expected duration of partnerships and on whether the frequency- or non-frequency-dependent model was used. In these experiments, solutions of the embedded, nonlinear, deterministic equations for the incidence of HIV infection and the cumulative number of deaths due to AIDS proved to be good measures of central tendency for the sample functions of the stochastic population process.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1989

A methodological study of a nonlinear stochastic model of an AIDS epidemic with recruitment.

A nonlinear stochastic model of an AIDS epidemic with recruitment of infectives, susceptibles, and AIDS cases into a randomly mixing population of male homosexuals was formulated and studied from a methodological point of view through intensive computer experimentation. Probability generating functions were used to formulate a model for the monthly probability that a susceptible individual becomes infected with HIV, under the assumption that the probability of infection per sexual contact varies as a function of the duration of infection. A method for taking into account the use of condoms to prevent infection with HIV was also introduced. Nonlinear difference equations, resembling deterministic epidemic models, were embedded in the stochastic population process by iterating an initial conditional expectation. Examples of Monte Carlo experiments are presented, illustrating that solutions of these nonlinear difference equations are not always good measures of central tendency for variations in the sample functions of the process. Two important substantive conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo experiments were that efforts should be made to collect quantitative information on the probability of infection per sexual contact as a function of duration of infection and the frequency of condom use within and among risk categories in a population.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1978

Robustness of life table methods in large populations--a study by computer simulation.

The robustness of the product life table estimator of the survival function was studied for large populations under perturbations in the age distribution, changing levels of mortality and changing patterns of fertility. A macrosimulation system, based on a class of stochastic population models called generalised age-dependent branching processes, was used to carry out the numerical investigations. Aside from drastic perturbations in the age distribution and changes in levels of mortality, the product life table estimator of the survival function was found to be robust in large populations, under a variety of conditions.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1977

Methodological issues underlying multiple decrement life table analysis.

In this paper, the actuarial method of multiple decrement life table analysis of censored, longitudinal data is examined. The discussion is organized in terms of the first segment of usage of an intrauterine device. Weaknesses of the actuarial approach are pointed out, and an alternative approach, based on the classical model of competing risks, is proposed. Finally, the actuarial and the alternative method of analyzing censored data are compared, using data from the Taichung Medical Study on Intrauterine Devices.

Female↗
PubMed1976

Implications of fertility patterns in the Republic of Korea: a study by computer simulation.

Implications of various fertility patterns in the Republic of Korea (ROK) are studied by computer simulation. These patterns include the factors: age of marriage, sex preference, abortion (induced), contraception and sterilisation. As a result of studying a large number of combinations of these factors, the following tentative conclusions, among others, are reached. If future cohorts of women in the ROK become limiters after two live births and marry according to an observed high level marriage distribution, at least two of the methods of birth control--abortion, contraception, and sterilisation--will have to be used extensively to yield a mean number of live births (MNLB) in these cohorts of the order 2-2. However, if these women marry later than the observed high level marriage distribution and, in addition, accept effective methods of contraception more widely and use them more effectively, then the MNLB experienced by these cohorts could move below 2-5 wihtout the extensive utilisation of abortion and sterilisation.

Abortion, Induced↗