Biomedical subjects

Bruce W Turnbull

Publications and source records attributed to Bruce W Turnbull.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Efficient group sequential designs when there are several effect sizes under consideration.

We consider the construction of efficient group sequential designs where the goal is a low expected sample size not only at the null hypothesis and the alternative (taken to be the minimal clinically meaningful effect size), but also at more optimistic anticipated effect sizes. Pre-specified Type I error rate and power requirements can be achieved both by standard group sequential tests and by more recently proposed adaptive procedures. We investigate four nested classes of designs: (A) group sequential tests with equal group sizes and stopping boundaries determined by a monomial error spending function (the 'rho-family'); (B) as A but the initial group size is allowed to be different from the others; (C) group sequential tests with arbitrary group sizes and arbitrary boundaries, fixed in advance; (D) adaptive tests-as C but at each analysis, future group sizes and critical values are updated depending on the current value of the test statistic. By examining the performance of optimal procedures within each class, we conclude that class B provides simple and efficient designs with efficiency close to that of the more complex designs of classes C and D. We provide tables and figures illustrating the performances of optimal designs within each class and defining the optimal procedures of classes A and B.

Anticholesteremic Agents↗

PubMed2006

Confirmatory seamless phase II/III clinical trials with hypotheses selection at interim: opportunities and limitations.

This is a discussion of the following two papers in this special issue on adaptive designs: 'Confirmatory seamless phase II/III clinical trials with hypotheses selection at interim: General concepts' by Frank Bretz, Heinz Schmidli, Franz König, Amy Racine and Willi Maurer, and 'Confirmatory seamless phase II/III clinical trials with hypotheses selection at interim: Applications and practical considerations' by Heinz Schmidli, Frank Bretz, Amy Racine and Willi Maurer.

Biometry↗

PubMed2005

On the multivariate probit model for exchangeable binary data with covariates.

This paper considers the use of a multivariate binomial probit model for the analysis of correlated exchangeable binary data. The model can naturally accommodate both cluster and individual level covariates, while keeping a fairly flexible intracluster association structure. We discuss Bayesian estimation when a sample of independent clusters of varying sizes are available, and show how Gibbs sampling may be used to derive the posterior densities of parameters. The methodology is illustrated with two examples: the first involves epidemiological data from a study of familial disease aggregation; the second uses teratological data from a developmental toxicity application.

Abnormalities, Drug-Induced↗

PubMed2005

Meta-analyses and adaptive group sequential designs in the clinical development process.

The clinical development process can be viewed as a succession of trials, possibly overlapping in calendar time. The design of each trial may be influenced by results from previous studies and other currently proceeding trials, as well as by external information. Results from all of these trials must be considered together in order to assess the efficacy and safety of the proposed new treatment. Meta-analysis techniques provide a formal way of combining the information. We examine how such methods can be used in combining results from: (1) a collection of separate studies, (2) a sequence of studies in an organized development program, and (3) stages within a single study using a (possibly adaptive) group sequential design. We present two examples. The first example concerns the combining of results from a Phase IIb trial using several dose levels or treatment arms with those of the Phase III trial comparing the treatment selected in Phase IIb against a control This enables a "seamless transition" from Phase IIb to Phase III. The second example examines the use of combination tests to analyze data from an adaptive group sequential trial.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2003

Selenium supplementation and secondary prevention of nonmelanoma skin cancer in a randomized trial.

The Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial was a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial designed to test whether selenium as selenized yeast (200 microg daily) could prevent nonmelanoma skin cancer among 1312 patients from the Eastern United States who had previously had this disease. Results from September 15, 1983, through December 31, 1993, showed no association between treatment and the incidence of basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin. This report summarizes the entire blinded treatment period, which ended on January 31, 1996. The association between treatment and time to first nonmelanoma skin cancer diagnosis and between treatment and time to multiple skin tumors overall and within subgroups, defined by baseline characteristics, was evaluated. Although results through the entire blinded period continued to show that selenium supplementation was not statistically significantly associated with the risk of basal cell carcinoma (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.94 to 1.26), selenium supplementation was associated with statistically significantly elevated risk of squamous cell carcinoma (HR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.51) and of total nonmelanoma skin cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.34). Results from the Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial conducted among individuals at high risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer continue to demonstrate that selenium supplementation is ineffective at preventing basal cell carcinoma and that it increases the risk of squamous cell carcinoma and total nonmelanoma skin cancer.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Mid-course sample size modification in clinical trials based on the observed treatment effect.

It is not uncommon to set the sample size in a clinical trial to attain specified power at a value for the treatment effect deemed likely by the experimenters, even though a smaller treatment effect would still be clinically important. Recent papers have addressed the situation where such a study produces only weak evidence of a positive treatment effect at an interim stage and the organizers wish to modify the design in order to increase the power to detect a smaller treatment effect than originally expected. Raising the power at a small treatment effect usually leads to considerably higher power than was first specified at the original alternative. Several authors have proposed methods which are not based on sufficient statistics of the data after the adaptive redesign of the trial. We discuss these proposals and show in an example how the same objectives can be met while maintaining the sufficiency principle, as long as the eventuality that the treatment effect may be small is considered at the design stage. The group sequential designs we suggest are quite standard in many ways but unusual in that they place emphasis on reducing the expected sample size at a parameter value under which extremely high power is to be achieved. Comparisons of power and expected sample size show that our proposed methods can out-perform L. Fisher's 'variance spending' procedure. Although the flexibility to redesign an experiment in mid-course may be appealing, the cost in terms of the number of observations needed to correct an initial design may be substantial.

Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic↗

PubMed2003

Likelihood inference for exchangeable binary data with varying cluster sizes.

This article investigates maximum likelihood estimation with saturated and unsaturated models for correlated exchangeable binary data, when a sample of independent clusters of varying sizes is available. We discuss various parameterizations of these models, and propose using the EM algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates. The methodology is illustrated by applications to a study of familial disease aggregation and to the design of a proposed group randomized cancer prevention trial.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2002

Baseline characteristics and the effect of selenium supplementation on cancer incidence in a randomized clinical trial: a summary report of the Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial.

The Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial was a randomized, clinical trial designed to evaluate the efficacy of selenium as selenized yeast (200 microg daily) in preventing the recurrence of nonmelanoma skin cancer among 1312 residents of the Eastern United States. Original secondary analyses through December 31, 1993 showed striking inverse associations between treatment and the incidence of total [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.46-0.82], lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer and total cancer mortality. This report presents results through February 1, 1996, the end of blinded treatment. Effect modification by baseline characteristics is also evaluated. The effects of treatment overall and within subgroups of baseline age, gender, smoking status, and plasma selenium were examined using incidence rate ratios and Cox proportional hazards models. Selenium supplementation reduced total (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.58-0.97) and prostate (HR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.28-0.80) cancer incidence but was not significantly associated with lung (HR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.44-1.24) and colorectal (HR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.21-1.02) cancer incidence. The effects of treatment on other site-specific cancers are also described. The protective effect of selenium was confined to males (HR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.50-0.89) and was most pronounced in former smokers. Participants with baseline plasma selenium concentrations in the lowest two tertiles (<121.6 ng/ml) experienced reductions in total cancer incidence, whereas those in the highest tertile showed an elevated incidence (HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 0.77-1.86). The Nutritional Prevention of Cancer trial continues to show a protective effect of selenium on cancer incidence, although not all site-specific cancers exhibited a reduction in incidence. This treatment effect was restricted to males and to those with lower baseline plasma selenium concentrations.

Age Distribution↗

PubMed2002

Selenium supplementation and lung cancer incidence: an update of the nutritional prevention of cancer trial.

Interest in the chemopreventive effects of the trace element selenium has spanned the past three decades. Of >100 studies that have investigated the effects of selenium in carcinogen-exposed animals, two-thirds have observed a reduction in tumor incidence and/or preneoplastic endpoints (G. F. Combs and S. B. Combs, The Role of Selenium in Nutrition Chapter 10, pp. 413-462. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1986, and B. H. Patterson and O. A. Levander, Cancer Epidemiol. Biomark. Prev., 6: 63-69, 1997). The Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial, a randomized clinical trial reported by Clark et al. (L. C. Clark et al., JAMA, 276: 1957-1963, 1996), showed as a secondary end point, a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence with selenium supplementation. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 0.56 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.31-1.01; P = 0.05]. These results were based on active follow-up of 1312 participants. This reanalysis used an extended Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial participant follow-up through the end of the blinded clinical trial on February 1, 1996. The additional 3 years added 8 cases to the selenium-treated group and 4 cases to the placebo group, and increased follow-up to 7.9 years. The relative risk of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.40-1.21; P = 0.18) is not statistically significant. Whereas the overall adjusted HR is not significant (HR = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.44-1.24; P = 0.26), and the HR for current and former smokers was not significant, the trend is toward a reduction in risk of incident lung cancer with selenium supplementation. In a subgroup analysis there was a nominally significant HR among subjects with baseline plasma selenium in the lowest tertile (HR = 0.42; 95% CI, 0.18-0.96; P = 0.04). The analysis for the middle and highest tertiles of baseline showed HRs of 0.91 and 1.25. The current reanalysis indicates that selenium supplementation did not significantly decrease lung cancer incidence in the full population, but a significant decrease among individuals with low baseline selenium concentrations was observed.

Aged↗