Biomedical subjects

B A Rosner

Publications and source records attributed to B A Rosner.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

PubMed1999

Dietary carotenoids and vitamins A, C, and E and risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Data on intake of specific carotenoids and breast cancer risk are limited. Furthermore, studies of vitamins A, C, and E in relation to breast cancer risk are inconclusive. We have conducted a large, prospective study to evaluate long-term intakes of these nutrients and breast cancer risk. METHODS: We examined, by use of multivariate analysis, associations between intakes of specific carotenoids, vitamins A, C, and E , consumption of fruits and vegetables, and breast cancer risk in a cohort of 83234 women (aged 33-60 years in 1980) who were participating in the Nurses' Health Study. Through 1994, we identified 2697 incident cases of invasive breast cancer (784 premenopausal and 1913 postmenopausal). RESULTS: Intakes of beta-carotene from food and supplements, lutein/zeaxanthin, and vitamin A from foods were weakly inversely associated with breast cancer risk in premenopausal women. Strong inverse associations were found for increasing quintiles of alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, lutein/zeaxanthin, total vitamin C from foods, and total vitamin A among premenopausal women with a positive family history of breast cancer. An inverse association was also found for increasing quintiles of beta-carotene among premenopausal women who consumed 15 g or more of alcohol per day. Premenopausal women who consumed five or more servings per day of fruits and vegetables had modestly lower risk of breast cancer than those who had less than two servings per day (relative risk [RR] = 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.58-1.02); this association was stronger among premenopausal women who had a positive family history of breast cancer (RR = 0.29; 95% CI = 0.13-0.62) or those who consumed 15 g or more of alcohol per day (RR = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.27-1.04). CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of fruits and vegetables high in specific carotenoids and vitamins may reduce premenopausal breast cancer risk.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Dietary fat and coronary heart disease: a comparison of approaches for adjusting for total energy intake and modeling repeated dietary measurements.

Previous cohort studies of fat intake and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) have been inconsistent, probably due in part to methodological differences and various limitations, including inadequate dietary assessment and incomplete adjustment for total energy intake. The authors analyzed repeated assessment of diet from the Nurses' Health Study to examine the associations between intakes of four major types of fat (saturated, monounsaturated, polyunsaturated, and trans fats) and risk of CHD during 14 years of follow-up (1980-1994) by using alternative methods for energy adjustment. In particular, the authors compared four risk models for energy adjustment: the standard multivariate model, the energy-partition model, the nutrient residual model, and the multivariate nutrient density model. Within each model, the authors compared four different approaches for analyzing repeated dietary measurements: baseline diet only, the most recent diet, and two different algorithms for calculating cumulative average diets. The substantive results were consistent across all models; that is, higher intakes of saturated and trans fats were associated with increased risk of CHD, while higher intakes of monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fats were associated with reduced risk. When nutrients were considered as continuous variables, the four energy-adjustment methods yielded similar associationS. However, the interpretation of the relative risks differed across models. In addition, within each model, the methods using the cumulative averages in general yielded stronger associations than did those using either only baseline diet or the most recent diet. When the nutrients were categorized according to quintiles, the residual and the nutrient density models, which gave similar results, yielded statistically more significant tests for linear trend than did the standard and the partition models.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Relationship of blood pressure to cardiovascular death: the effects of pulse pressure in the elderly.

PURPOSE: To investigate the relationship of systolic and diastolic blood pressure to fatal myocardial infarction, fatal stroke and other death related to cardiovascular diseases (CVD). METHODS: The study was based on a prospective longitudinal study conducted by the Veterans Administration at the Boston Outpatient Clinic. Participants are male volunteers from the greater Boston area. Main outcome measures are fatal myocardial infarction, fatal stroke and other deaths related to cardiovascular diseases. The method of pooled logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: For younger men (age 21-59), after adjusting for effects of other risk factors, when systolic and diastolic blood pressure were considered separately, SBP was predictive of cardiovascular death (SBP: RR = 1.23; 95% CI = (1.05, 1.45) per 10 mmHg of increase), and DBP showed a nonsignificant positive trend in relation to cardiovascular death (DBP: RR = 1.27; 95% CI = (0.95, 1.69) per 10 mmHg of increase). For older men (age 60-85), when SBP and DBP were considered separately, SBP (RR = 1.26; 95% CI = (1.02, 1.55) per 15 mmHg of increase) was directly related, but DBP (RR = 1.05; 95% CI = (0.83, 1.32) per 8 mmHg of increase) was not related to cardiovascular death. However, for the elderly group, when SBP and DBP were considered jointly in the regression model, then the regression coefficient of DBP (beta = -0.018, p = 0.30) was of approximately the same absolute magnitude as that of SBP (beta = 0.021, p = 0.02) but opposite in sign. For younger men, when SBP and DBP were considered jointly, SBP (beta = 0.021, p = 0.049) but not DBP (beta = -0.001, p = 0.953) was positively related to cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: We found that, for the elderly, pulse pressure (SBP-DBP) may be a more accurate predictor of cardiovascular death than either SBP or DBP alone. The relative risk per 35 mmHg of increase of pulse pressure, which equals the approximate interval from the 10th to the 90th percentile in the elderly group, is 2.1 with 95% CI = (1.1, 3.8). In younger subjects, SBP, but not DBP, is an independent predictor of fatal CVD.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Validity of a food frequency questionnaire in assessing nutrient intakes of low-income pregnant women.

OBJECTIVE: In 1989, a validation study of eight nutrients was performed on a modified food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) specifically designed for low-income pregnant women. The purpose of this study was to broaden the scope of the previous study by assessing the validity of the FFQ for 17 additional nutrients. METHODS: The Pregnancy Food Frequency Questionnaire (PFFQ) was administered to a sample of 295 low-income, pregnant women aged 14-43 years living in Massachusetts. A randomly selected subsample of 101 women who provided at least one diet recall and reported intake of less than 4,500 calories were included in this analysis. RESULTS: Mean intake of 25 nutrients as assessed by one administration of the PFFQ and up to three diet recalls collected over 1 month were similar. Unadjusted correlation coefficients between nutrient intake measured by diet recalls and the questionnaire ranged from .28 (carotene) to .61 (folate). After adjusting for energy intake the correlations ranged from .03 (B12) to .46 (folate). The correlations corrected for day-to-day variation were higher, ranging from .07 (B12) to .90 (zinc). The mean correlation was .47 and there were 54% over .40. CONCLUSIONS: A food frequency questionnaire for English-speaking, low-income, pregnant women can provide maternal and child health practitioners and researchers a valid estimate of diet across a wide range of nutrients.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1999

Refining behavioral phenotypes: personality-motivation in Williams and Prader-Willi syndromes.

Despite behavioral differences, individuals with Williams or Prader-Willi syndrome share a proneness to certain personality characteristics. We hypothesized that there are qualitative differences in these shared personality features. Personality-motivation (measured using the Reiss Profiles) was compared for equal numbers of age- and gender-matched individuals with Williams or Prader-Willi syndrome or mental retardation due to nonspecific causes. Each syndrome featured aberrant motivational profiles, and similarities were found across groups in various domains. Significant differences emerged in the specific stimuli that motivated behavior in several Reiss Profile domains. Implications are discussed for the "classic" sociable personality in Williams syndrome and for compulsivity in Prader-Willi syndrome. Recommendations are made for treatment and more refined phenotypic research.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1998

Frequent nut consumption and risk of coronary heart disease in women: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relation between nut consumption and risk of coronary heart disease in a cohort of women from the Nurses' Health Study. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Nurses' Health Study. SUBJECTS: 86 016 women from 34 to 59 years of age without previously diagnosed coronary heart disease, stroke, or cancer at baseline in 1980. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Major coronary heart disease including non-fatal myocardial infarction and fatal coronary heart disease. RESULTS: 1255 major coronary disease events (861 cases of non-fatal myocardial infarction and 394 cases of fatal coronary heart disease) occurred during 14 years of follow up. After adjusting for age, smoking, and other known risk factors for coronary heart disease, women who ate more than five units of nuts (one unit equivalent to 1 oz of nuts) a week (frequent consumption) had a significantly lower risk of total coronary heart disease (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 0.89, P for trend=0.0009) than women who never ate nuts or who ate less than one unit a month (rare consumption). The magnitude of risk reduction was similar for both fatal coronary heart disease (0.61, 0.35 to 1.05, P for trend=0.007) and non-fatal myocardial infarction (0.68, 0.47 to 1.00, P for trend=0.04). Further adjustment for intakes of dietary fats, fibre, vegetables, and fruits did not alter these results. The inverse association persisted in subgroups stratified by levels of smoking,use of alcohol, use of multivitamin and vitamin E supplements, body mass index, exercise, and intake of vegetables or fruits. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent nut consumption was associated with a reduced risk of both fatal coronary heart disease and non-fatal myocardial infarction. These data, and those from other epidemiological and clinical studies, support a role for nuts in reducing the risk of coronary heart disease.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

Calcium channel blockers, cancer incidence, and cancer mortality in a cohort of U.S. women: the nurses' health study.

BACKGROUND: Some studies have suggested that the use of calcium channel blockers may increase the risk of cancer. A possible association of the use of calcium channel blockers with cancer incidence and cancer mortality was addressed using data from the Nurses' Health Study. METHODS: In this study, a total of 18,635 female nurses reported regularly taking at least 1 of 4 cardiovascular medications in 1988: diuretics, beta-blockers, calcium channel blockers, and/or angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors. Cancer incidence and cancer deaths were ascertained until 1994. RESULTS: During 6 years of follow-up, 852 women were newly diagnosed with cancer and 335 women died of cancer. Women who reported the use of calcium channel blockers had no increased risk of newly diagnosed cancer compared with those taking other cardiovascular drugs (relative risk=1.02; 95% CI 0.83-1.26). The relative risk of dying from cancer associated with the self-reported use of calcium channel blockers was 1.25 (95% CI 0.91-1.72). Relative risks were adjusted for the following self-reported factors: age; weight; height; cholesterol level; systolic and diastolic blood pressure; smoking; alcohol intake; physical activity; menopausal status; postmenopausal hormone use; aspirin use; and history of diabetes, cancer, stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft or percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, angina, and hypertension. Regarding site specific cancer incidence and mortality, only lung cancer incidence was somewhat increased (RR=1.61; 95% CI 0.88-2.96). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest no important increase in overall cancer incidence or cancer mortality related to the self-reported use of calcium channel blockers.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗

PubMed1998

Multivitamin use, folate, and colon cancer in women in the Nurses' Health Study.

BACKGROUND: High intake of folate may reduce risk for colon cancer, but the dosage and duration relations and the impact of dietary compared with supplementary sources are not well understood. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relation between folate intake and incidence of colon cancer. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: 88,756 women from the Nurses' Health Study who were free of cancer in 1980 and provided updated assessments of diet, including multivitamin supplement use, from 1980 to 1994. PATIENTS: 442 women with new cases of colon cancer. MEASUREMENTS: Multivariate relative risk (RR) and 95% CIs for colon cancer in relation to energy-adjusted folate intake. RESULTS: Higher energy-adjusted folate intake in 1980 was related to a lower risk for colon cancer (RR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.52 to 0.93] for intake > 400 microg/d compared with intake < or = 200 microg/d) after controlling for age; family history of colorectal cancer; aspirin use; smoking; body mass; physical activity; and intakes of red meat, alcohol, methionine, and fiber. When intake of vitamins A, C, D, and E and intake of calcium were also controlled for, results were similar. Women who used multivitamins containing folic acid had no benefit with respect to colon cancer after 4 years of use (RR, 1.02) and had only nonsignificant risk reductions after 5 to 9 (RR, 0.83) or 10 to 14 years of use (RR, 0.80). After 15 years of use, however, risk was markedly lower (RR, 0.25 [CI, 0.13 to 0.51]), representing 15 instead of 68 new cases of colon cancer per 10,000 women 55 to 69 years of age. Folate from dietary sources alone was related to a modest reduction in risk for colon cancer, and the benefit of long-term multivitamin use was present across all levels of dietary intakes. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term use of multivitamins may substantially reduce risk for colon cancer. This effect may be related to the folic acid contained in multivitamins.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

Prospective study of calcium channel blocker use, cardiovascular disease, and total mortality among hypertensive women: the Nurses' Health Study.

BACKGROUND: In several observational studies, patients prescribed calcium channel blockers had higher risks of cardiovascular diseases and mortality than those prescribed other antihypertensive medications. We explored these associations in the Nurses' Health Study. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 14 617 women who reported hypertension and regular use of diuretics, beta-blockers, calcium channel blockers, ACE inhibitors, or a combination in 1988 were included in the analyses. Cardiovascular events and deaths were ascertained through May 1, 1994. We documented 234 cases of myocardial infarction. Calcium channel blocker monodrug users had an age-adjusted relative risk (RR) of myocardial infarction of 2.36 (95% CI, 1.43 to 3.91) compared with those prescribed thiazide diuretics. Women prescribed calcium channel blockers had a higher prevalence of ischemic heart disease. After adjustment for these and other coronary risk factors, the RR was 1.64 (95% CI, 0.97 to 2.77). Comparing the use of any calcium channel blocker (monodrug and multidrug users) with that of any other antihypertensive agent, the adjusted RR was 1.42 (95% CI, 1.01 to 2.01). An association between calcium channel blocker use and myocardial infarction was apparent among women who had ever smoked cigarettes (covariate-adjusted RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.20 to 2.72) but not among never-smokers (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.48 to 1.84). CONCLUSIONS: In analyses adjusted only for age, we found a significant elevation in RR of total myocardial infarction among women who used calcium channel blockers compared with those who did not. After adjustment for comorbidity and other covariates, the RR was reduced. Whether the remaining observed elevated risk is real, or a result of residual confounding by indication, or chance, or a combination of the above cannot be evaluated with certainty on the basis of these observational data.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

Does body mass index adequately capture the relation of body composition and body size to health outcomes?

Body mass index (BMI) has become the most commonly used index of body composition in epidemiologic research. It has displaced weight, height, and other measures of body composition. In this paper, the authors show that use of BMI alone does not always capture adequately the joint relation of body composition and body size to health outcomes, and that such use often represents implausible restrictions on the relation. Use of body mass index and height or weight and height will often be needed to describe this relation and to control confounding by these variables.

Adipose Tissue↗

PubMed1998

Effects of ozone and other pollutants on the pulmonary function of adult hikers.

This study evaluated the acute effects of ambient ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and strong aerosol acidity on the pulmonary function of exercising adults. During the summers of 1991 and 1992, volunteers (18-64 years of age) were solicited from hikers on Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Volunteer nonsmokers with complete covariates (n = 530) had pulmonary function measured before and after their hikes. We calculated each hiker's posthike percentage change in forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), the ratio of these two (FEV1/FVC), forced expiratory flow between 25 and 75% of FVC(FEF25-75%), and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR). Average O3 exposures ranged from 21 to 74 ppb. After adjustment for age,sex, smoking status (former versus never), history of asthma or wheeze, hours hiked, ambient temperature, and other covariates, there was a 2.6% decline in FEV1 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.4-4.7; p = 0.02] and a 2.2% decline in FVC (CI, 0.8-3.5; p =0.003) for each 50 ppb increment in mean O3. There were consistent associations of decrements in both FVC (0.4% decline; CI,0.2-0.6, p = 0.001) and PEFR (0.8% decline; CI, 0.01-1.6; p = 0.05) with PM2.5 and of decrements in PEFR (0.4% decline; CI, 0.1-0.7; p = 0.02) with strong aerosol acidity across the interquartile range of these exposures. Hikers with asthma or a history of wheeze (n = 40) had fourfold greater responsiveness to ozone than others. With prolonged outdoor exercise, low-level exposures to O3, PM2.5, and strong aerosol acidity were associated with significant effects on pulmonary function among adults. Hikers with a history of asthma or wheeze had significantly greater air pollution-related changes in pulmonary function.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1998

Risk factors for breast cancer in women with a breast cancer family history.

Family history (FH) is an important indicator of a woman's future risk of developing breast cancer. Using data collected in a large population-based case-control study (6705 cases and 9341 controls), we examined the associations of breast cancer with known risk factors in women reporting a first-degree FH (mother or sister), with an emphasis on lifestyle determinants that may be altered to reduce risk. First-degree FH was reported by 18.4% (n = 1234) of cases and 11.3% (n = 1058) of controls; the overall relative risk (RR) for breast cancer associated with a positive history was 1.70 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.55-1.87] and 2.34 (95% CI, 1.80-3.02) for breast cancer at age 45 years or younger. Among women with a FH, statistically significant inverse associations were observed for increasing parity (RR per birth = 0.90; P < 0.0001), intake of carotene-rich foods (RR for >2000 IU/day = 0.73; P = 0.02), and strenuous activity as a young adult (RR per episode/week = 0.93; P = 0.02). Recent alcohol consumption increased risk (RR per 13 g/week = 1.21; P = 0.02), as did weight gain during adult life in postmenopausal women (RR per 5 kg = 1.08; P = 0.001). Breast-feeding for any duration was associated with a lower RR in parous, premenopausal women (RR = 0.59; P = 0.04). Associations for most risk factors with breast cancer were similar among women with and without a FH of breast cancer; however, a stronger inverse association was observed for parity in women with a positive history (P for interaction = 0.04). Based on these data, women with a FH may reduce their excess risk of breast cancer through adjustments in lifestyle and reproductive choices. The risk associated with FH of breast cancer seems to be largely independent of other known risk factors.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1998

Exercise and sports in children and adolescents with developmental disabilities. Positive physical and psychosocial effects.

This article reviews findings to date on the effects of exercise and sports in children and adolescents with developmental disabilities. Although much work remains, exercise and sports are associated with reduced maladaptive behavior in children with disabilities, as well as with improved physical fitness, self-esteem, and social competence. Improved physical and psychosocial functioning are found in studies of both children and adults with mental retardation, as well as in research on athletes enrolled in Special Olympics International, the largest recreational sport program in the world for persons with developmental disabilities. The review ends with recommendations for promoting recreation and sports in children and adolescents with disabilities.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

Dietary fat intake and the risk of coronary heart disease in women.

BACKGROUND: The relation between dietary intake of specific types of fat, particularly trans unsaturated fat and the risk of coronary disease remains unclear. We therefore studied this relation in women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study. METHODS: We prospectively studied 80,082 women who were 34 to 59 years of age and had no known coronary disease, stroke, cancer, hypercholesterolemia, or diabetes in 1980. Information on diet was obtained at base line and updated during follow-up by means of validated questionnaires. During 14 years of follow-up, we documented 939 cases of nonfatal myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease. Mutivariate analyses included age, smoking status, total energy intake, dietary cholesterol intake, percentages of energy obtained from protein and specific types of fat, and other risk factors. RESULTS: Each increase of 5 percent of energy intake from saturated fat, as compared with equivalent energy intake from carbohydrates, was associated with a 17 percent increase in the risk of coronary disease (relative risk, 1.17; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.41; P=0.10). As compared with equivalent energy from carbohydrates, the relative risk for a 2 percent increment in energy intake from trans unsaturated fat was 1.93 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.43 to 2.61; P<0.001); that for a 5 percent increment in energy from monounsaturated fat was 0.81 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.65 to 1.00; P=0.05); and that for a 5 percent increment in energy from polyunsaturated fat was 0.62 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.85; P= 0.003). Total fat intake was not signficantly related to the risk of coronary disease (for a 5 percent increase in energy from fat, the relative risk was 1.02; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.07; P=0.55). We estimated that the replacement of 5 percent of energy from saturated fat with energy from unsaturated fats would reduce risk by 42 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 23 to 56; P<0.001) and that the replacement of 2 percent of energy from trans fat with energy from unhydrogenated, unsaturated fats would reduce risk by 53 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 34 to 67; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that replacing saturated and trans unsaturated fats with unhydrogenated monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fats is more effective in preventing coronary heart disease in women than reducing overall fat intake.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Geographic variation in breast cancer incidence rates in a cohort of U.S. women.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer mortality and incidence rates vary by geographic region in the United States. Previous analytic studies have measured mortality, not incidence, and have used regional prevalences to control for geographic variation in risk factors rather than adjusting for risk factors measured at the level of the individual. We prospectively evaluated regional variation in breast cancer incidence rates in the Nurses' Health Study and assessed the influence of breast cancer risk factors measured at the individual level. METHODS: The Nurses' Health Study cohort was established in 1976 when 121700 female nurses aged 30-55 years living in 11 U.S. states were enrolled. These states represent all four regions of the continental United States. We identified 3603 incident cases of invasive breast cancer through 1992 (1794565 person-years of follow-up). We calculated relative risks (RRs) adjusted for age and for age and established risk factors (i.e., multivariate-adjusted analysis), comparing California, the Northeast, and the Midwest with the South. RESULTS: For premenopausal women, there was little evidence of regional variation in breast cancer incidence rates, either in age-adjusted or in multivariate-adjusted analyses. For postmenopausal women in California, age-adjusted risk was modestly elevated (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05-1.47); after adjusting for age and for established risk factors, the excess rate in California was attenuated by 25% (RR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.00-1.40). No excess of breast cancer incidence was observed for postmenopausal women in either the Northeast or the Midwest. CONCLUSIONS: Little regional variation in age-adjusted breast cancer incidence rates was observed, with the exception of a modest excess for postmenopausal women in California. Adjustment for differences in the distribution of established risk factors explained some of the excess risk in California.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Oral contraceptives and ovulatory causes of delayed fertility.

The return of fertility for women who discontinue oral contraceptives takes longer as compared with women who discontinue other methods of contraception. It remains unclear, however, whether subsequent fertility differs according to duration or age at first use. The authors performed a nested case-control study within a cohort of 116,686 female registered nurses residing in 14 US states. Baseline information was reported on mailed questionnaires in 1989. Cases comprised 1,917 married nurses without previous pregnancy who were unable to become pregnant for at least 1 year and were subsequently diagnosed with primary ovulatory infertility. Controls comprised 44,521 married parous nurses with no history of infertility and no pregnancies lasting less than 6 months. After allowing for 2 years of suppressed fertility following discontinuation of oral contraceptive use and excluding women with signs of menstrual or hormonal disorder, the authors found that the multivariate relative risk for ovulatory causes of delayed fertility was 1.2 (95% confidence interval 0.7-1.9) for ever users. There was no statistically significant trend of increasing risk with increasing duration of use and younger age at first use. The fact that 88 percent of cases reported an eventual pregnancy by 1993 suggests that absolute fertility was not impaired.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Body fat distribution and risk of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus in women. The Nurses' Health Study.

Obesity is an established risk factor for non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). Anthropometric measures of overall and central obesity as predictors of NIDDM risk have not been as well studied, especially in women. Among 43,581 women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study who in 1986 provided waist, hip, and weight information and who were initially free from diabetes and other major chronic diseases, NIDDM incidence was followed from 1986 to 1994. After adjustment for age, family history of diabetes, smoking, exercise, and several dietary factors, the relative risk of NIDDM for the 90th percentile of body mass index (BMI) (weight (kg)/height (m)2) (BMI = 29.9) versus the 10th percentile (BMI = 20.1) was 11.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.9-15.9). Controlling for BMI and other potentially confounding factors, the relative risk for the 90th percentile of waist: hip ratio (WHR) (WHR = 0.86) versus the 10th percentile (WHR = 0.70) was 3.1 (95% CI 2.3-4.1), and the relative risk for the 90th percentile of waist circumference (36.2 inches or 92 cm) versus the 10th percentile (26.2 inches or 67 cm) was 5.1 (95% CI 2.9-8.9). BMI, WHR, and waist circumference are powerful independent predictors of NIDDM in US women. Measurement of BMI and waist circumference (with or without hip circumference) are potentially useful tools for clinicians in counseling patients regarding NIDDM risk and risk reduction.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Prediction of young adult blood pressure from childhood blood pressure, height, and weight.

To assess the ability of childhood blood pressure, height, and weight to predict young adult blood pressure, the authors examined data obtained over multiple visits for four years on 339 children aged 8-18 years in East Boston, Massachusetts. These subjects were again seen 8-12 years later when they were aged 20-26 years. Multivariate regression models were used to predict true blood pressure in young adulthood from observed childhood measurements closest to age 10 (n = 219), adjusting for within-person variability. Without adjusting for childhood blood pressure, childhood height, weight and body mass index were at least marginally associated with young adult systolic blood pressure in boys and girls, with similar coefficients for each gender. The strongest predictor was weight (beta = 0.6 mmHg/10 lbs for girls, and beta = 0.7 mmHg/10 lbs for boys), and height was no longer predictive with weight in the model. With childhood blood pressure included, neither childhood height nor weight were predictors of future systolic blood pressure. However, change in height and weight were predictors of future systolic blood pressure. Weight change was a stronger predictor in girls than boys with beta = 0.9 mmHg/10 lbs. For diastolic blood pressure, height and weight had limited predictive ability in these data. These models, which allow for both between- and within-person variability in young adulthood, may be used to estimate the predictive value for future high blood pressure of a child's current blood pressure, height and weight, as well as future change in height and weight. These data suggest that the effects of childhood height and weight on future blood pressure may be negligible given childhood blood pressure, but that later height and weight remain predictive.

Adolescent↗