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Andy Purvis

Publications and source records attributed to Andy Purvis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

A higher-level MRP supertree of placental mammals.

BACKGROUND: The higher-level phylogeny of placental mammals has long been a phylogenetic Gordian knot, with disagreement about both the precise contents of, and relationships between, the extant orders. A recent MRP supertree that favoured 'outdated' hypotheses (notably, monophyly of both Artiodactyla and Lipotyphla) has been heavily criticised for including low-quality and redundant data. We apply a stringent data selection protocol designed to minimise these problems to a much-expanded data set of morphological, molecular and combined source trees, to produce a supertree that includes every family of extant placental mammals. RESULTS: The supertree is well-resolved and supports both polyphyly of Lipotyphla and paraphyly of Artiodactyla with respect to Cetacea. The existence of four 'superorders'--Afrotheria, Xenarthra, Laurasiatheria and Euarchontoglires--is also supported. The topology is highly congruent with recent (molecular) phylogenetic analyses of placental mammals, but is considerably more comprehensive, being the first phylogeny to include all 113 extant families without making a priori assumptions of suprafamilial monophyly. Subsidiary analyses reveal that the data selection protocol played a key role in the major changes relative to a previously published higher-level supertree of placentals. CONCLUSION: The supertree should provide a useful framework for hypothesis testing in phylogenetic comparative biology, and supports the idea that biogeography has played a crucial role in the evolution of placental mammals. Our results demonstrate the importance of minimising poor and redundant data when constructing supertrees.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Latent extinction risk and the future battlegrounds of mammal conservation.

Global conservation prioritization usually emphasizes areas with highest species richness or where many species are thought to be at imminent risk of extinction. However, these strategies may overlook areas where many species have biological traits that make them particularly sensitive to future human impact but are not yet threatened because such impact is currently low. In this article, we identify such areas for the world's mammals using latent extinction risk, the discrepancy between a species' current extinction risk and that predicted from models on the basis of biological traits. Species with positive latent risk are currently less threatened than their biology would suggest, usually because they inhabit regions or habitats still comparatively unmodified by human activity. Using large new geographic, biological, and phylogenetic databases for nearly 4,000 mammal species, we map the global geographic distribution of latent risk to reveal areas where the mammal fauna is still relatively unthreatened but has high inherent sensitivity to disturbance. These hotspots include large areas such as the Nearctic boreal forests and tundra that are unrepresented in most current prioritization schemes, as well as high-biodiversity areas such as the island arc from Indonesia to the south Pacific. Incorporating latent extinction risk patterns into conservation planning could help guard against future biodiversity loss by anticipating and preventing species declines before they begin.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

From more to fewer? Testing an allegedly pervasive trend in the evolution of morphological structure.

While evolutionary trends have long received much attention and have been widely disputed, new methods are now allowing the testing of directional hypotheses with increased rigor. Here, we test a general hypothesis about the way many kinds of discrete characters are thought to evolve, termed oligomerization. This is the tendency for serial structures (such as arthropod body and appendage segments) or armature (such as spines) to evolve primarily through loss and fusion. Focusing on the Crustacea, we use maximum likelihood methods to test for directional evolution in a large sample (> 500) of discrete traits, analyzed against molecular-based phylogenies. We find evidence for a significant trend toward trait loss, in accordance with the reduction principle. However, this trend is far from ubiquitous, with many characters exhibiting a reconstructed bias toward gains. These results suggest that caution must be used before drawing conclusions about which taxa are "primitive" or about the directionality of morphological shifts in the absence of phylogenetic analysis. Nevertheless, oligomerization-as a trend rather than a law-may be an important process that influences evolutionary trajectories from both morphological and functional perspectives.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species.

Many large animal species have a high risk of extinction. This is usually thought to result simply from the way that species traits associated with vulnerability, such as low reproductive rates, scale with body size. In a broad-scale analysis of extinction risk in mammals, we find two additional patterns in the size selectivity of extinction risk. First, impacts of both intrinsic and environmental factors increase sharply above a threshold body mass around 3 kilograms. Second, whereas extinction risk in smaller species is driven by environmental factors, in larger species it is driven by a combination of environmental factors and intrinsic traits. Thus, the disadvantages of large size are greater than generally recognized, and future loss of large mammal biodiversity could be far more rapid than expected.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Correlates of species richness in mammals: body size, life history, and ecology.

We present the most extensive examination to date of proposed correlates of species richness. We use rigorous phylogenetic comparative techniques, data for 1,692 mammal species in four clades, and multivariate statistics to test four hypotheses about species richness and compare the evidence for each. Overall, we find strong support for the life-history model of diversification. Species richness is significantly correlated with shorter gestation period in the carnivores and large litter size in marsupials. These traits and short interbirth intervals are also associated with species richness in a pooled analysis of all four clades. Additionally, we find some support for the abundance hypotheses in different clades of mammals: abundance correlates positively with species richness in primates but negatively in microchiropterans. Our analyses provide no evidence that mammalian species richness is associated with body size or degree of sexual dimorphism.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Evolution: how do characters evolve?

Ricklefs claims to show that morphological evolution in birds is associated with speciation events--that is, it is punctuational--by inference from data on only species number, clade age and character variance from a range of passerine clades. He suggests that variance increases in proportion with clade age under gradual change, but in proportion to the logarithm of species number if change is punctuational. Here I show that both clade age and the logarithm of species number independently predict variance under both gradual and punctuational change, rendering Ricklefs' results uninformative about his central hypothesis.

Aging↗
PubMed2004

Human population density and extinction risk in the world's carnivores.

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

The impact of species concept on biodiversity studies.

Species are defined using a variety of different operational techniques. While discussion of the various methodologies has previously been restricted mostly to taxonomists, the demarcation of species is also crucial for conservation biology. Unfortunately, different methods of diagnosing species can arrive at different entities. Most prominently, it is widely thought that use of a phylogenetic species concept may lead to recognition of a far greater number of much less inclusive units. As a result, studies of the same group of organisms can produce not only different species identities but also different species range and number of individuals. To assess the impact of different definitions on conservation issues, we collected instances from the literature where a group of organisms was categorized both under phylogenetic and nonphylogenetic concepts. Our results show a marked difference, with surveys based on a phylogenetic species concept showing more species (48%) and an associated decrease in population size and range. We discuss the serious consequences of this trend for conservation, including an apparent change in the number of endangered species, potential political fallout, and the difficulty of deciding what should be conserved.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Preserving the tree of life.

Phylogenies provide new ways to measure biodiversity, to assess conservation priorities, and to quantify the evolutionary history in any set of species. Methodological problems and a lack of knowledge about most species have so far hampered their use. In the future, as techniques improve and more data become accessible, we will have an expanded set of conservation options, including ways to prioritize outcomes from evolutionary and ecological processes.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Biological correlates of extinction risk in bats.

We investigated patterns and processes of extinction and threat in bats using a multivariate phylogenetic comparative approach. Of nearly 1,000 species worldwide, 239 are considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and 12 are extinct. Small geographic ranges and low wing aspect ratios are independently found to predict extinction risk in bats, which explains 48% of the total variance in IUCN assessments of threat. The pattern and correlates of extinction risk in the two bat suborders are significantly different. A higher proportion (4%) of megachiropteran species have gone extinct in the last 500 years than microchiropteran bats (0.3%), and a higher proportion is currently at risk of extinction (Megachiroptera: 34%; Microchiroptera: 22%). While correlates of microchiropteran extinction risk are the same as in the order as a whole, megachiropteran extinction is correlated more with reproductive rate and less with wing morphology. Bat extinction risk is not randomly distributed phylogenetically: closely related species have more similar levels of threat than would be expected if extinction risk were random. Given the unbalanced nature of the evolutionary diversification of bats, it is probable that the amount of phylogenetic diversity lost if currently threatened taxa disappear may be greater than in other clades with numerically more threatened species.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Phylogenetically nested comparisons for testing correlates of species richness: a simulation study of continuous variables.

Explaining the uneven distribution of species among lineages is one of the oldest questions in evolution. Proposed correlations between biological traits and species diversity are routinely tested by making comparisons between phylogenetic sister clades. Several recent studies have used nested sister-clade comparisons to test hypotheses linking continuously varying traits, such as body size, with diversity. Evaluating the findings of these studies is complicated because they differ in the index of species richness difference used, the way in which trait differences were treated, and the statistical tests employed. In this paper, we use simulations to compare the performance of four species richness indices, two choices about the branch lengths used to estimate trait values for internal nodes and two statistical tests under a range of models of clade growth and character evolution. All four indices returned appropriate Type I error rates when the assumptions of the method were met and when branch lengths were set proportional to time. Only two of the indices were robust to the different evolutionary models and to different choices of branch lengths and statistical tests. These robust indices had comparable power under one nonnull scenario. Regression through the origin was consistently more powerful than the t-test, and the choice of branch lengths exerts a strong effect on both the validity and power. In the light of our simulations, we re-evaluate the findings of those who have previously used nested comparisons in the context of species richness. We provide a set of simple guidelines to maximize the performance of phylogenetically nested comparisons in tests of putative correlates of species richness.

Phylogeny↗
PubMed2002

Are most species small? Not within species-level phylogenies.

The robust macro-ecological observation that there are more small-bodied species implies that small-bodied organisms have experienced elevated net rates of diversification. We investigate the role of body size in creating non-random differences in rates of cladogenesis using a set of 38 species-level phylogenies drawn from a range of animal groups. We use independent contrasts to explore the relationship between body size and species richness within individual phylogenies and across related sets of phylogenies. We also carry out a meta-analysis looking for associations between body size and species richness across the taxa. We find little evidence for increased cladogenesis among small-bodied organisms within taxa, and no evidence for any consistent differences between taxa. We explore possible explanations for the inconsistency of our findings with macro-ecological patterns.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Hotspots and the conservation of evolutionary history.

Species diversity is unevenly distributed across the globe, with terrestrial diversity concentrated in a few restricted biodiversity hotspots. These areas are associated with high losses of primary vegetation and increased human population density, resulting in growing numbers of threatened species. We show that conservation of these hotspots is critical because they harbor even greater amounts of evolutionary history than expected by species numbers alone. We used supertrees for carnivores and primates to estimate that nearly 70% of the total amount of evolutionary history represented in these groups is found in 25 biodiversity hotspots.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Testing the accuracy of methods for reconstructing ancestral states of continuous characters.

Many methods are available for estimating ancestral values of continuous characteristics, but little is known about how well these methods perform. Here we compare six methods: linear parsimony, squared-change parsimony, one-parameter maximum likelihood (Brownian motion), two-parameter maximum likelihood (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process), and independent comparisons with and without branch-length information. We apply these methods to data from 20 morphospecies of Pleistocene planktic Foraminifera in order to estimate ancestral size and shape variables, and compare these estimates with measurements on fossils close to the phylogenetic position of 13 ancestors. No method produced accurate estimates for any variable: estimates were consistently less good as predictors of the observed values than were the averages of the observed values. The two-parameter maximum-likelihood model consistently produces the most accurate size estimates overall. Estimation of ancestral sizes is confounded by an evolutionary trend towards increasing size. Shape showed no trend but was still estimated very poorly: we consider possible reasons. We discuss the implications of our results for the use of estimates of ancestral characteristics.

Algorithms↗