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Biomedical subjects

Alison P Galvani

Publications and source records attributed to Alison P Galvani.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

Evaluating candidate agents of selective pressure for cystic fibrosis.

Cystic fibrosis is the most common lethal single-gene mutation in people of European descent, with a carrier frequency upwards of 2%. Based upon molecular research, resistances in the heterozygote to cholera and typhoid fever have been proposed to explain the persistence of the mutation. Using a population genetic model parameterized with historical demographic and epidemiological data, we show that neither cholera nor typhoid fever provided enough historical selective pressure to produce the modern incidence of cystic fibrosis. However, we demonstrate that the European tuberculosis pandemic beginning in the seventeenth century would have provided sufficient historical, geographically appropriate selective pressure under conservative assumptions. Tuberculosis has been underappreciated as a possible selective agent in producing cystic fibrosis but has clinical, molecular and now historical, geographical and epidemiological support. Implications for the future trajectory of cystic fibrosis are discussed. Our result supports the importance of novel investigations into the role of arylsulphatase B deficiency in cystic fibrosis and tuberculosis.

Causality↗
PubMed2006

Evolving public perceptions and stability in vaccine uptake.

Recent vaccine scares and sudden spikes in vaccine demand remind us that the effectiveness of mass vaccination programs is governed by the public perception of vaccination. Previous work has shown that the tendency of individuals to optimize self-interest can lead to vaccination levels that are suboptimal for a community. We use game theory to relate population-level demand for vaccines to decision-making by individuals with varied beliefs about the costs of infection and vaccination. In contrast to previous work proposing that universal vaccination is impossible in a game theoretic context, we show that optimal individual behavior can vary between universal vaccination and no vaccination, depending on the relative costs and benefits to individuals. By coupling game models and epidemic models, we demonstrate that the pursuit of self-interest often leads to stable dynamics but can lead to oscillations in vaccine uptake over time. The instability is exacerbated in populations that are more homogeneous with respect to their perceptions of vaccine and infection risks. This research illustrates the importance of applying temporal models to an inherently temporal situation, namely, the time evolution of vaccine coverage in an informed population with a voluntary vaccination policy.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

A model of spatial epidemic spread when individuals move within overlapping home ranges.

One of the central goals of mathematical epidemiology is to predict disease transmission patterns in populations. Two models are commonly used to predict spatial spread of a disease. The first is the distributed-contacts model, often described by a contact distribution among stationary individuals. The second is the distributed-infectives model, often described by the diffusion of infected individuals. However, neither approach is ideal when individuals move within home ranges. This paper presents a unified modeling hypothesis, called the restricted-movement model. We use this model to predict spatial spread in settings where infected individuals move within overlapping home ranges. Using mathematical and computational approaches, we show that our restricted-movement model has three limits: the distributed-contacts model, the distributed-infectives model, and a third, less studied advective distributed-infectives limit. We also calculate approximate upper bounds for the rates of an epidemic's spatial spread. Guidelines are suggested for determining which limit is most appropriate for a specific disease.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

Modeling targeted ivermectin treatment for controlling river blindness.

There is considerable host heterogeneity in exposure to onchocerciasis. We incorporate this heterogeneity into a model of onchocerciasis transmission that we use to evaluate intervention strategies targeting specific portions of the human population for treatment with ivermectin. Our model predicts that targeted allocation of ivermectin in a highly heterogeneous population will reduce the public health burden of onchocerciasis using 20-25% of the doses of untargeted allocation. Targeted allocation therefore poses significantly lower risk of adverse effects, while potentially delaying the emergence and spread of ivermectin resistance, relative to untargeted allocation.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

The geographic spread of the CCR5 Delta32 HIV-resistance allele.

The Delta32 mutation at the CCR5 locus is a well-studied example of natural selection acting in humans. The mutation is found principally in Europe and western Asia, with higher frequencies generally in the north. Homozygous carriers of the Delta32 mutation are resistant to HIV-1 infection because the mutation prevents functional expression of the CCR5 chemokine receptor normally used by HIV-1 to enter CD4+ T cells. HIV has emerged only recently, but population genetic data strongly suggest Delta32 has been under intense selection for much of its evolutionary history. To understand how selection and dispersal have interacted during the history of the Delta32 allele, we implemented a spatially explicit model of the spread of Delta32. The model includes the effects of sampling, which we show can give rise to local peaks in observed allele frequencies. In addition, we show that with modest gradients in selection intensity, the origin of the Delta32 allele may be relatively far from the current areas of highest allele frequency. The geographic distribution of the Delta32 allele is consistent with previous reports of a strong selective advantage (>10%) for Delta32 carriers and of dispersal over relatively long distances (>100 km/generation). When selection is assumed to be uniform across Europe and western Asia, we find support for a northern European origin and long-range dispersal consistent with the Viking-mediated dispersal of Delta32 proposed by G. Lucotte and G. Mercier. However, when we allow for gradients in selection intensity, we estimate the origin to be outside of northern Europe and selection intensities to be strongest in the northwest. Our results describe the evolutionary history of the Delta32 allele and establish a general methodology for studying the geographic distribution of selected alleles.

Alleles↗
PubMed2005

The role of mutation accumulation in HIV progression.

The onset of AIDS is characterized by the collapse of the immune system after a prolonged asymptomatic period. The mechanistic basis of this disease progression has remained obscure, hindering the development of effective therapies. Here I present a mechanism that underlies the deterioration of the immune system during HIV infection. The elevated turnover of lymphocytes throughout the asymptomatic period is postulated to result in the accumulation of deleterious mutations, which impairs immunological function, replicative ability and viability of lymphocytes. This mutational meltdown is proposed to occur throughout the hierarchy of lymphocyte progenitors, resulting in the deterioration of lymphocyte regeneration and an ensuing rise in viral loads. A mathematical model is used to illustrate this mechanism of progressive immunological deterioration. Mutation accumulation may explain not only the decline in CD4+T cells, but also the functional deterioration of CD4+T cells, CD8+T cells and B cells, and the exhaustion of lymphocyte regeneration.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2005

The evolutionary history of the CCR5-Delta32 HIV-resistance mutation.

The CCR5 chemokine receptor is exploited by HIV-1 to gain entry into CD4+ T cells. A deletion mutation (Delta32) confers resistance against HIV by obliterating the expression of the receptor on the cell surface. Intriguingly, this allele is young in evolutionary time, yet it has reached relatively high frequencies in Europe. These properties indicate that the mutation has been under intense positive selection. HIV-1 has not exerted selection for long enough on the human population to drive the CCR5-Delta32 allele to current frequencies, fueling debate regarding the selective pressure responsible for rise of the allele. The allele exists at appreciable frequencies only in Europe, and within Europe, the frequency is higher in the north. Here we review the population genetics of the CCR5 locus, the debate over the historical selective pressure acting on CCR5-Delta32, the inferences that can potentially be drawn from the geographic distribution of CCR5-Delta32 and the role that other genetic polymorphisms play in conferring resistance against HIV. We also discuss parallel evolution that has occurred at the CCR5 locus of other primate species. Finally, we highlight the promise that therapies based on interfering with the CCR5 receptor could have in the treatment of HIV.

Evolution, Molecular↗
PubMed2005

Vaccination against multiple HPV types.

Vaccines against the most common human papillomavirus (HPV) types are currently under development. Epidemiologic data suggest that the transmission dynamics of different HPV types are not independent. Some studies indicate that interactions among HPV types are synergistic, where infection with one type facilitates concurrent or subsequent infection with another HPV type. Other studies point to antagonistic interference among HPV types. Here we develop a mathematical model to explore how these interactions may either enhance or diminish the effectiveness of vaccination programs designed to reduce the prevalence of the HPV types associated with cervical cancer. We analyze the local stability of the infection-free and boundary equilibria and characterize the conditions leading to a coexistence equilibrium. We also illustrate the results with numerical simulations using realistic model parameters. We show that if interactions among HPV types are synergistic, mass vaccination may reduce the prevalence of types that are not even included in the vaccine.

Female↗
PubMed2005

Dynamically modeling SARS and other newly emerging respiratory illnesses: past, present, and future.

The emergence and rapid global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus in 2002-2003 prompted efforts by modelers to characterize SARS epidemiology and inform control policies. We overview and discuss models for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), provide a critical survey of SARS modeling literature, and discuss promising future directions for research. We reconcile discrepancies between published estimates of the basic reproductive number R0 for SARS (a crucial epidemiologic parameter), discuss insights regarding SARS control measures that have emerged uniquely from a modeling approach, and argue that high priorities for future modeling of SARS and similar respiratory EIDs should include informing quarantine policy and better understanding the impact of population heterogeneity on transmission patterns.

Communicable Diseases, Emerging↗
PubMed2005

Age-dependent epidemiological patterns and strain diversity in helminth parasites.

Field studies of schistosomes and the major intestinal nematodes Trichuris trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides repeatedly demonstrate that the intensity and prevalence of infection exhibit marked dependency on host age. Peak levels of infection typically occur in hosts aged between 10 and 14 yr in endemically infected communities. It has widely been assumed that the slow acquisition of resistance in adults is caused by repeated exposure to the same antigenic repertoire of a single parasite strain. Consequently, these empirical patterns have previously been taken to suggest that human immunity to helminth parasites confers poor protection against reinfection. Here, an alternative explanation is suggested on the basis of results from a simplified model of helminth transmission. It is proposed that the empirical observations can be attributed to the circulation of multiple helminth strains that each elicit highly protective immunity. If this hypothesis is correct, estimates of epidemiological parameters from field data and the potential for control of helminth diseases might require reevaluation.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

The effect of treatment on pathogen virulence.

The optimal virulence of a pathogen is determined by a trade-off between maximizing the rate of transmission and maximizing the duration of infectivity. Treatment measures such as curative therapy and case isolation exert selective pressure by reducing the duration of infectivity, reducing the value of duration-increasing strategies to the pathogen and favoring pathogen strategies that maximize the rate of transmission. We extend the trade-off models of previous authors, and represents the reproduction number of the pathogen as a function of the transmissibility, host contact rate, disease-induced mortality, recovery rate, and treatment rate, each of which may be influenced by the virulence. We find that when virulence is subject to a transmissibility-mortality trade-off, treatment can lead to an increase in optimal virulence, but that in other scenarios (such as the activity-recovery trade-off) treatment decreases the optimal virulence. Paradoxically, when levels of treatment rise with pathogen virulence, increasing control efforts may raise predicted levels of optimal virulence. Thus we show that conflict can arise between the epidemiological benefits of treatment and the evolutionary risks of heightened virulence.

Communicable Diseases↗
PubMed2004

Intense selection in an age-structured population.

In a population with overlapping generations, intense selection can perturb the age distribution and thus affect the rate of increase of an advantageous allele. We found that the age-specific nature of intense selection, such as that generated by many diseases, can affect the outcome of selection on loci, such as those conferring disease resistance. We also found that the temporal dynamics of selection alter the speed of evolution, particularly when selection is intense, and even more so when it is age-specific. We relate our model and results to selection for disease resistance, although the results have broader implications for inferences about past selection pressures in general.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2003

Evaluating plague and smallpox as historical selective pressures for the CCR5-Delta 32 HIV-resistance allele.

The high frequency, recent origin, and geographic distribution of the CCR5-Delta 32 deletion allele together indicate that it has been intensely selected in Europe. Although the allele confers resistance against HIV-1, HIV has not existed in the human population long enough to account for this selective pressure. The prevailing hypothesis is that the selective rise of CCR5-Delta 32 to its current frequency can be attributed to bubonic plague. By using a population genetic framework that takes into account the temporal pattern and age-dependent nature of specific diseases, we find that smallpox is more consistent with this historical role.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Curtailing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome within a community and its hospital.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been transmitted extensively within hospitals, and healthcare workers (HCWs) have comprised a large proportion of SARS cases worldwide. We present a stochastic model of a SARS outbreak in a community and its hospital. For a range of basic reproductive numbers (R(0)) corresponding to conditions in different cities (but with emphasis on R(0) approximately 3 as reported for Hong Kong and Singapore), we evaluate contact precautions and case management (quarantine and isolation) as containment measures. Hospital-based contact precautions emerge as the most potent measures, with hospital-wide measures being particularly important if screening of HCWs is inadequate. For R(0) = 3, case isolation alone can control a SARS outbreak only if isolation reduces transmission by at least a factor of four and the mean symptom-onset-to-isolation time is less than 3 days. Delays of a few days in contact tracing and case identification severely degrade the utility of quarantine and isolation, particularly in high-transmission settings. Still more detrimental are delays between the onset of an outbreak and the implementation of control measures; for given control scenarios, our model identifies windows of opportunity beyond which the efficacy of containment efforts is reduced greatly. By considering pathways of transmission in our system, we show that if hospital-based transmission is not halted, measures that reduce community-HCW contact are vital to preventing a widespread epidemic. The implications of our results for future emerging pathogens are discussed.

Community-Acquired Infections↗
PubMed2003

Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy.

The recent threat of bioterrorism has fueled debate on smallpox vaccination policy for the United States. Certain policy proposals call for voluntary mass vaccination; however, if individuals decide whether to vaccinate according to self-interest, the level of herd immunity achieved may differ from what is best for the population as a whole. We present a synthesis of game theory and epidemic modeling that formalizes this conflict between self-interest and group interest and shows that voluntary vaccination is unlikely to reach the group-optimal level. This shortfall results in a substantial increase in expected mortality after an attack.

Game Theory↗