Aki Vehtari | Search PubMed

PubMed2005

Bayesian analysis of the neuromagnetic inverse problem with l(p)-norm priors.

Magnetoencephalography (MEG) allows millisecond-scale non-invasive measurement of magnetic fields generated by neural currents in the brain. However, localization of the underlying current sources is ambiguous due to the so-called inverse problem. The most widely used source localization methods (i.e., minimum-norm and minimum-current estimates (MNE and MCE) and equivalent current dipole (ECD) fitting) require ad hoc determination of the cortical current distribution (l(2)-, l(1)-norm priors and point-sized dipolar, respectively). In this article, we perform a Bayesian analysis of the MEG inverse problem with l(p)-norm priors for the current sources. This way, we circumvent the arbitrary choice between l(1)- and l(2)-norm prior, which is instead rendered automatically based on the data. By obtaining numerical samples from the joint posterior probability distribution of the source current parameters and model hyperparameters (such as the l(p)-norm order p) using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, we calculated the spatial inverse estimates as expectation values of the source current parameters integrated over the hyperparameters. Real MEG data and simulated (known) source currents with realistic MRI-based cortical geometry and 306-channel MEG sensor array were used. While the proposed model is sensitive to source space discretization size and computationally rather heavy, it is mathematically straightforward, thus allowing incorporation of, for instance, a priori functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) information.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Bayesian model assessment and comparison using cross-validation predictive densities.

In this work, we discuss practical methods for the assessment, comparison, and selection of complex hierarchical Bayesian models. A natural way to assess the goodness of the model is to estimate its future predictive capability by estimating expected utilities. Instead of just making a point estimate, it is important to obtain the distribution of the expected utility estimate because it describes the uncertainty in the estimate. The distributions of the expected utility estimates can also be used to compare models, for example, by computing the probability of one model having a better expected utility than some other model. We propose an approach using cross-validation predictive densities to obtain expected utility estimates and Bayesian bootstrap to obtain samples from their distributions. We also discuss the probabilistic assumptions made and properties of two practical cross-validation methods, importance sampling and k-fold cross-validation. As illustrative examples, we use multilayer perceptron neural networks and gaussian processes with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in one toy problem and two challenging real-world problems.

Arm↗