A three-metabolite microbiota-associated signature for early risk stratification of gestational diabetes mellitus.
BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes and long-term metabolic and cardiovascular risk. However, oral glucose tolerance testing at 24-28 gestational weeks limits early risk stratification. Gut microbiota-associated metabolites may reflect early metabolic abnormalities, including those relevant to cardiometabolic health, but robust early-pregnancy biomarkers remain limited. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter nested case-control and prospective study involving 2,693 pregnant women. Untargeted metabolomics and metagenomics were integrated to identify GDM-associated metabolites and gut microbial alterations. Three consistently dysregulated metabolites, 3-hydroxydecanoic acid, γ-Glu-Leu, and propionic acid, were quantified by targeted LC-MS/MS. Candidate algorithms were compared using repeated 10-fold cross-validation, and a final generalized linear model was externally and prospectively validated. RESULTS: Women who later developed GDM showed an adverse early-pregnancy metabolic profile, including higher BMI, triglycerides, and platelet count. Untargeted metabolomics identified 14 persistently altered metabolites enriched in energy, oxidative stress, and amino acid metabolism pathways. Metagenomics revealed taxonomic restructuring and coordinated microbiota-metabolite associations. The three-metabolite model achieved AUCs of 0.838 (95% CI, 0.791-0.885) in training, 0.840 (95% CI, 0.769-0.911) in internal validation, 0.955 (95% CI, 0.925-0.985) and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.875-0.958) in two external cohorts, and 0.969 (95% CI, 0.937-1.000) in the prospective cohort. CONCLUSION: Early microbiota-associated metabolic dysregulation is detectable before routine GDM diagnosis. This compact three-metabolite panel may support early GDM risk stratification and provides metabolic evidence relevant to broader cardiometabolic risk assessment in pregnancy.