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A Verdecchia

Publications and source records attributed to A Verdecchia.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1995

Comparisons of colon-cancer survival among European countries: The Eurocare Study.

Under the aegis of EUROCARE, a European Union project to assemble survival data from population-based cancer registries and analyze them according to standardized procedures, we have investigated and compared colon-cancer survival in 10 European countries. We analyzed 68,283 colon-cancer cases diagnosed between 1978 and 1985 and followed for at least 6 years. After calculating relative survival, putative factors prognostic for survival were investigated by univariate and multiple-regression analyses. Important intercountry colon-cancer survival differences exist within Europe, which are not explained by methodological differences, nor by demographic confounders. In patients aged 60 to 69, the mean European 5-year cumulative relative survival was 40%. Switzerland, Finland and The Netherlands had significantly higher 5-year relative survival, while one area in the UK and Cracow in Poland had significantly lower survival than this European estimate. Prognosis improved over time: from 1978 to 1985, the risk of death was reduced by about 4% per year in all countries studied. Age at diagnosis is inversely related to prognosis. Differences in health provision and hence in quality of care and stage at presentation seem largely responsible for the differences in colon-cancer survival found in the EUROCARE countries.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

A back-calculation method to estimate the age and period HIV infection intensity, considering the susceptible population.

An extension of the back-calculation method to reconstruct the past history of HIV infections is presented. In this method the HIV infection intensity, as a function of age and calendar time, is assumed to belong to a family of parametric functions and is back-calculated from the observed AIDS incidence cases, knowledge of the incubation period and of the susceptible population, the final model being chosen as the one that gives the best fit. The model allows for the interaction between age and calendar time. The application to the main risk groups in Italy, male IVDUs and homosexuals, showed that age and the susceptible population were important in estimating the epidemic among IVDUs; interaction between age and calendar time was found to be significant, showing that among young IVDUs the risk of infection decreased faster than among older IVDUs. Sensitivity of the estimates to the assumption of population and choice of the infection function is investigated.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1995

Use of AIDS surveillance data to describe subepidemic dynamics.

BACKGROUND: Official reports on AIDS surveillance mainly consist of absolute numbers of AIDS cases or cumulative incidence rates. More detailed analyses focusing on the clusters of subepidemics within Italy seemed necessary for a better understanding and more accurate description of the epidemic. METHODS: Age-specific AIDS incidence rates were calculated with reference to resident population by sex, calendar time and geographical area. Age-standardized incidence rates, with the Italian resident population in 1990 as standard, were used to present time trends and geographical distributions. All analyses were repeated for injecting drug users, homosexual/bisexual men, heterosexual contacts and individuals with other or undetermined risk factors. RESULTS: Annual incidence rates for AIDS in Italy increased over the study period. The highest rates were observed in the North and in Sardinia, while Southern regions showed generally lower rates. This heterogeneity was more evident when examining small geographical areas (i.e. provinces). Epidemics in some of the smaller provinces, such as Imperia and Livorno (Northwestern port towns), were shown to be important in that they greatly affect AIDS incidence rates in the regions in which they are located. CONCLUSIONS: According to our analysis, the crude presentation of data from the Italian AIDS Registry is not adequate for understanding the national spread of the AIDS epidemic in terms of several local subepidemics, which may differ by size, temporal trend, and risk group composition. Classifying cases according to their place of residence, which we considered as a good proxy of the place of life, was fundamental for correctly locating these subepidemics. Furthermore, the use of age-standardized rates allowed for unbiased comparisons between regions whose population may have a different age structure and dynamics.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1994

Time trends of lung and larynx cancers in Italy.

During the period 1970-1989, age-adjusted mortality rates for lung cancer in Italy increased by more than 50%, while rates for larynx cancer in males decreased by approximately 13%. This study aims to interpret this difference, which seems to contradict the finding that cigarette smoking is a common major risk factor for both lung and larynx cancer. To this end, we jointly analyzed the time trends of incidence, survival and mortality. We first examined survival data taken from the population-based Lombardy Cancer Registry (northern Italy). Based on data referring to 880 incident cases of larynx cancer, diagnosed during the period 1976-1987, we estimated a 3% annual increase in relative survival. By contrast, no significant period effect was observed for survival rates of 2,259 incident cases of lung cancer. National incidence rates were estimated using official mortality data and the above-described survival data. Age-adjusted estimated incidence rates increased, from 1970 to 1989, for both cancer sites: +55% for male lung, +56% for female lung, and +22% for male larynx. Moreover, the patterns of birth-cohort effect, which are diverging for mortality, are nearly parallel with regard to incidence. This analysis suggests that a substantial improvement in survival of larynx cancer patients may largely explain the differences in mortality trends for cancer of lung and larynx.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1994

MIAMOD: a computer package to estimate chronic disease morbidity using mortality and survival data.

The MIAMOD package is for use in epidemiological analysis of chronic degenerative diseases. The package has been designed to use survival and mortality data supplied by the user, to estimate incidence and prevalence rates, to forecast future mortality and morbidity levels and to provide life tables. Estimates are derived by modelling incidence as an age-period-cohort function and by the equations relating specific cause mortality and prevalence to incidence and survival. The model parameters are evaluated by fitting mortality data by means of a weighted non-linear regression model. Numerical and statistical methods used to solve the regression and to compute standard errors, projections, and life tables are discussed. The program is written in standard FORTRAN 77 and runs on a mainframe computer. The different program units are illustrated together with the principal implementation options. An example of application is provided to show a typical output pattern.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed1994

An age and period reconstruction of the HIV epidemic in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The majority of AIDS cases in Italy are among intravenous drug users (68%) and homosexual men. An age, period and cohort (APC) model is presented and used to reconstruct the HIV epidemics in Italy. Projections of AIDS-related conditions (ARC) and AIDS cases are attempted based on a hypothesis of minima and an endemic hypothesis. METHODS: The model is a generalization of the usual back-calculation method which considers age, competitive mortality, susceptible population and therapy effects. Estimates of the HIV epidemic in Italy are obtained using Italian AIDS counts (corrected for delay in reporting), and an incubation time distribution (estimated from data of an Italian cohort), which was found to be dependent on the age at infection. The impact of AZT therapy, introduced in Italy in mid1987, is evaluated using a modification of the incubation time distribution dependent on period of infection. RESULTS: The estimated number of new infections in Italy declined after 1987, although the number of new AIDS cases has continued to rise, albeit less steeply in recent years. When delay in the progression to AIDS due to therapy is taken into account, the estimated number of people infected in mid1990 increases from 52,000 to 67,000, with approximately 12% of subjects already in the ARC stage. The age at maximum risk of infection is 25 years in males and 23 years in females. CONCLUSIONS: Using a hypothesis of no more HIV infections after 1990, AIDS counts would be still rising in Italy up to 1993 as a result of past infections and of the long incubation period.

AIDS-Related Complex↗
PubMed1992

Estimated incidence and prevalence of female breast cancer in Italian regions.

Female breast cancer incidence and prevalence in Italy have been estimated by region and vast areas from population-based survival data of breast cancer patients and 1970-1987 specific mortality data using a mathematical model. Italian age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) for 1987 range from 70 to 90 per 100,000 women-year in the Northern regions, 55 to 73 in the Center, and 45 to 72 in the South. Overall, the ASR is about 80 in the North, 70 in the Center and 60 in the South. In the absence of competitive mortality, breast cancer cumulative risk in the 0-74 years life span is about 7 women out of 100 in the North, 6 in the Center and 5 in the South. The decreasing risk pattern from North to Center then South appears less evident when under 45 age-specific rates are considered. Very high levels for young age-groups are present both in the North (Liguria and Emilia Romagna) and South (Sardinia and Apulia). The incidence pattern by age differs from region to region and over the considered period, suggesting that a birth-cohort effect is crossing the whole country. Using to model, it can be estimated that the risk by cohort increases from the generations born at the beginning of the century to those born in the 40s, after which, for subsequent generations, it has been decreasing in all the considered areas and is similar in the North and South. We can infer that for the whole country the incidence will increase up to the years 2000-2010 when those birth-cohorts at higher risk will also be at higher risk for age. In 1987, about 250,000 Italian women had a present or past history of breast cancer: for the 1970-1987 period, prevalence has increased by approximately 5,500 cases per year.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1992

Estimation of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome incubation period in intravenous drug users: a comparison with male homosexuals.

Estimates of the risk of developing acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) have been limited to studies involving homosexual men, transfusion recipients, and hemophiliac subjects. Little is known, however, about the natural history of the human immunodeficiency virus infection in intravenous drug users. An Italian multicenter cohort study of 420 individuals who seroconverted between 1982 and 1990 provided the opportunity to study the incubation period to AIDS in this group. A three-state Markov model was fitted to the data, and estimates of the risk of developing AIDS were obtained for intravenous drug users, male homosexuals, and three age groups. The risk of developing AIDS increased significantly with age. The estimated annual risk of developing AIDS for individuals between 25 and 34 years of age and over 35 years was 2.4 and 3.8 times higher, respectively, than that observed for individuals between 16 and 24 years of age. The mode of transmission did appear to have a small but not statistically significant influence on the time interval between the diagnosis of AIDS-related conditions and AIDS.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1992

Survival for lung cancer in northern Italy.

From the population covered by the Lombardy Cancer Registry (northern Italy), all 2,259 lung cancer patients diagnosed from 1976 to 1981 were followed through 30 November 1989. The length of follow-up ranged from eight to 13 years. A special investigation on long-term survivors showed that a negligible proportion (0.01 percent) of errors occur in determining life status when an active follow-up is adopted. Age, stage, and histotype were found to be statistically significant, independent, prognostic factors in multivariate analysis both by the Cox model and by a model considering the relative survival. Observed survival was 29 percent at one year after diagnosis, 13 percent at two years, eight percent at three years, five percent at five years and two percent at 10 years. Survival decreased with age, but the youngest patients of both sexes showed lower survival compared with immediately subsequent ages. Among morphologically confirmed tumors, epidermoid carcinomas and adenocarcinomas showed the highest survival (38 percent and 33 percent at one year, respectively); small cell carcinomas showed the poorest prognosis (one-year survival, 23 percent). Beyond the second year after diagnosis, differences between histotypes became slighter. Survival according to stage showed a decreasing pattern from limited to advanced tumors, one-year figures being 41 percent for localized tumors, 27 percent for regional metastasis, and three percent for distant metastasis. Relative survival in Varese was compared with that reported by other cancer registries in Western countries: the variability noted could be related to different modalities of registration and to different distribution of clinical and demographic factors.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

[Incidence and prevalence of respiratory tumors in Italy. Estimation from mortality data].

This study estimates the incidence and prevalence of larynx and lung cancers using a mathematical model based on available data on specific mortality and survival. In Italy, larynx and lung cancers account for more than 95% of respiratory cancers. In this paper, estimates of age/sex-specific and age-standardized incidence rates and prevalence are presented for the years 1970 and 1987. Age and birth-cohort effects on incidence are also presented by sex and broad geographical area. The procedure was firstly validated using data from four cancer registries: Varese (Northern Italy), Parma (North-Central Italy), Florence (Central Italy), and Ragusa (Southern Italy). Estimates were then carried out at the national level and for each major geographical area (i.e. North, Center and South). Larynx cancer age-standardized incidence rates increased for men by about 25% from 1970 to 1987. Age-specific rates increased for ages greater than 44 years, but decreased for younger ages. Cohort effects are low for older cohorts; they steeply increase and plateau for the 1900-1905 cohorts, and then peak for the 1930 cohort. The risk for cohorts born after 1930 systematically decreases. We estimated that the 1930 birth cohort has a risk five times higher than the 1890 cohort. For women, the incidence rates increased by about 30% from 1970 to 1987, for all age classes. Cohort effects steadily increase from the 1886 birth cohort to the 1960 cohort. The estimated prevalence between ages 30 and 84 increased from about 24,400 cases in 1970 (23,000 males and 1,400 females) to about 51,400 cases in 1987 (48,600 males and 2,800 females). For men, 42% of the increase can be attributed to an increase in the incidence of the disease; 45% can be attributed to population aging, and only 13% to an increase in the survival probability. Corresponding figures for women are 42%, 48%, and 10%. For lung cancer, we estimated 32,000 incident cases for 1987 (28,000 men and 4,000 women), two times the corresponding figures for 1970 (14,000 men and 2,000 women). Looking at age-adjusted rates, the overall risk of lung cancer increased by about 60% for men and 52% for women during a period of 17 years. Age-specific incidence rates increased proportionally with age for ages greater than 50 years. By contrast, there was a slight but systematic risk reduction in younger age classes.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Survival and age at diagnosis of breast cancer in a population-based cancer registry.

From the population covered by the Lombardy Cancer Registry, Italy, 1991 female breast cancer patients diagnosed from 1976 to 1981 were followed up until May 1987. Relative survival was 69% at 5 years and 58% at 10 years; median survival was 8.8 years. Ages 40-49 showed the best survival; ages 25-34 were 20% lower. From age 50 onwards, survival decreased progressively, with the exception of age group 65-74. We suggest that the best prognosis for ages 40-49, followed by the survival fall in subsequent ages, could be related to an anticipation of diagnosis in ages near menopause. The death hazard function showed a bimodal pattern, with a first peak in the first years after diagnosis, and a second one between the seventh and eighth years. The death hazard rate decreased by about 1% per year at each subsequent calendar year of diagnosis. When such an estimated calendar effect was taken in account, there were no considerable survival differences among Western countries covered by population-based cancer registries.

Adult↗
PubMed1990

Breast cancer incidence and prevalence estimated from survival and mortality.

Survival probability for female breast cancer patients was used to estimate incidence rates from breast cancer mortality data in Italy. The female breast cancer survival curve from the Lombardy Cancer Registry (LCR) was used to test the method on data from four local cancer registries, covering areas in different regions of Italy. In spite of the well known geographic variability of female breast cancer incidence and mortality, the results support the idea that survival probability does not change across the country and that the survival probability from the LCR is a good estimate of that in the country as a whole. Female breast cancer incidence and prevalence rates were then estimated for Italy, making use of a mathematical model specifically developed for chronic diseases. In 1985, crude incidence and prevalence rates of female breast cancer, for ages up to 74 years, were estimated as 71 and 701 per 100,000 women, respectively. Estimated incidence rates show a complex trend with age, increasing to a temporary pronounced peak at the age of 52. A marked cohort effect was found to increase significantly the risk of the disease from the 1886 to the 1930 birth cohorts by a factor of 2.9. After the 1930 cohort, risks have continued at a constant high level.

Adult↗
PubMed1990

[Surveillance of coronary and cerebrovascular events. Experience and teachings of the Latin Area of the Monitoring of Cardiovascular Diseases project].

The paper reports data collected during the first three years (1983-1985) of the MONICA Project--Monitoring of Cardiovascular Diseases--in the Area Latina. The age adjusted attack rates for coronary heart disease, averaged over a three year period, were 328 per 100,000 per year in males and 101 in females. The correspondent rates for cerebrovascular diseases were 247 and 161 per 100,000 respectively. The fatality rates for coronary events were 8.3% for males and 8.6% for females within the first hour. They rose to around 30% for both sexes within 24 hours and to 56% in males and 73% in females within 28 days. The fatality rates for cerebrovascular diseases during the first day were 25.3% in males and 27.8% in females, while within 28 days they reached 44.2% and 51.0% respectively. A large proportion of fatal events (about 50% for coronary cases and almost one third for cerebrovascular cases) occurred at home without any health care assistance.

Adult↗
PubMed1989

A method for the estimation of chronic disease morbidity and trends from mortality data.

Measures of chronic degenerative disease diffusion, such as incidence and prevalence rates, are a basic need for epidemiologists and others working in many fields of human sciences. Equations relating death probabilities to incidence and survival probabilities for chronic degenerative diseases are derived from a cohort point of view. A maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation of incidence as a function of time related covariates. When time series of mortality data are available, the model can be used to describe and analyse levels and dynamics of morbidity. A trial application to lung and breast cancer is given for the province of Varese, Italy, where incidence data are available from the Lombardy Cancer Register.

Adult↗
PubMed1989

Register for cerebrovascular events in the Area Latina, Italy. Clinical and epidemiological data during three years of surveillance.

Data are presented on the cerebrovascular events collected by a surveillance system during 1983-1985 in the MONICA Project-Area Latina, on a target population of about 400,000 subjects aged 25-74. The cerebrovascular events observed in 3 years were 2245: the fatalities (within 28 days from the onset of symptoms) numbered 1016 (562 males and 454 females), and the non fatal cases 1229 (742 males and 482 females). The attack rates per 10,000 per year were 21.96 for males and 15.20 for females. By definition, all the non fatal cases received some kind of treatment in hospital or nursing home. Among the fatal cases 68% received a treatment in a hospital or nursing home, while 32% died without medical attention. The fatality rate within 28 days was 43% for males and 48% for females.

Adult↗
PubMed1989

The estimate of coronary incidence following different case finding procedures.

In the pool of two rural population groups made up of 1695 coronary-free men aged 40-59 years at entry and followed-up for 25 years, repeated field examination at 5, 10, 20 and 25 years after enrollment and mortality checking, allowed us to identify 256 first major coronary events (coronary deaths and definite myocardial infarction)--the basic procedure. An extra effort in data collection, involving checking hospital admissions and discharges, inquiries to general practitioners and some postal questionnaires, allowed us to identify 45 extra cases of non-fatal myocardial infarction--the special procedure. The reported incidence of a first major coronary event in 25 years increased in this way by 17.8%, from 15.1% to 17.7%. The 45 cases identified by the special procedure were younger and had more favourable levels of risk factors than the other 256. However the coefficients of six risk factors estimated by the Cox model (age, mean blood pressure, serum cholesterol, cigarette consumption, forced expiratory volume and arcus senilis) were rather similar, and all were significant in the solution that included the cases identified by the basic procedure, compared to the solution that included cases identified by both procedures.

Adult↗
PubMed1988

The use of multiple logistic function to predict surgical risk.

A method for preoperative assessment of surgical risk, in function of several risk factors, was developed using the multiple logistic function, as a model of multivariate statistical analysis. This model has the advantage to express the two considered outcomes (perioperative complications and death) in numerical terms of probability. The data were obtained from 8630 consecutive patients admitted to 62 hospitals located in various regions of Italy. The patients were divided at random into two groups: group A (6040) was used to develop the method, and group B (2590) was used as control. The method is based on the role played by seven risk factors, that were shown to be significantly related to the two outcomes. These factors are age, systolic blood pressure, pathological changes of renal function, presence of concomitant diseases, estimated duration of surgical procedure, type (major or minor) and timing of surgery, (elective, delayed or emergency). The relative and independent role of each of these factors (beta) and the value of constant alpha were estimated by maximum likelihood method. The surgical risk is assessed by solving the multiple logistic equation, and multiplying the beta values by the corresponding individual coded values of the risk factors represented by the various x's. When the method was tested by applying the computed values of alpha and beta's to assess the outcomes in the control group, the predictions resulted highly accurate (r = 0.99). To simplify the calculation of surgical risk, in appendix a computer program in Basic, already predisposed to receive in code the individual values of x's, is reported.

Adolescent↗