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Biomedical subjects

A S Elstein

Publications and source records attributed to A S Elstein.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
PubMed1993

Forecasting survival in the medical intensive care unit: a comparison of clinical prognoses with formal estimates.

Physicians often need to make prognostic judgments. In the present study, the accuracy was explored of survival estimates for patients in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU). Estimates were made by physicians and nurses several times during each patient's stay in the MICU and were compared to those of the APACHE II scale, a widely used quantitative index for critically ill patients. ROC curve and calibration curve analyses were performed to assess the accuracy of these estimates. Results revealed that MICU personnel were fairly accurate discriminators of patients who survived vs. who died, although there was a consistent tendency to underestimate survival. In addition, there was some relationship between the level of physician training and forecasting accuracy, but only within the patient's first 24 hours in the MICU. Finally, the estimates of physicians did not differ significantly from those of the APACHE II scale. Physicians tended to be better calibrated in their predictions, while the APACHE II scale was slightly superior in terms of discrimination.

Forecasting↗
PubMed1987

Computer modeling of clinical judgment.

Four main developments leading to computer modeling of clinical judgment are described in this paper. These include information processing psychology, clinical vs. statistical prediction studies, behavioral decision theory, and Bayesian decision analysis approaches. One clear catalyst in these developments has been the computer, which has been used as an information management tool rather than a data-processing device. Future directions of these efforts are delineated, and problems as well as prospects of computerizing clinical judgment are described.

Artificial Intelligence↗
PubMed1986

Comparison of physicians' decisions regarding estrogen replacement therapy for menopausal women and decisions derived from a decision analytic model.

Decisions regarding estrogen replacement therapy were obtained from 50 physicians for 12 cases representing menopausal women with systematically varying levels of cancer risk, fracture risk, and symptom severity. Their decisions were compared with a decision analytic model for which each physician provided needed quantities--subjective probabilities, utilities of various outcomes, and weightings of the importance of the outcome categories. The majority of observed decisions were not to treat. By contrast, the decision analysis based on physician-provided estimates indicated that the optimal strategy was either to treat or a toss-up. Sensitivity analysis showed that these conclusions would hold over all possible utilities, over all plausible probabilities of cancer, and so long as symptom relief and fracture prevention were also considered as treatment objectives. The increased probability of early detection of cancer by regular follow-up was systematically incorporated into the decision analysis but apparently neglected in unaided clinical judgment, which follows the principle of minimizing the most important risk, regardless of its probability.

Decision Theory↗
PubMed1985

Instruction in medical decision making. A report of two surveys.

Results of two surveys (D and E) that assessed the current structure and status of instruction in medical decision making are reported. Both samples (Survey D, N = 80; Survey E, N = 92) consisted of members of the Society for Medical Decision Making. A consensus was obtained on topics considered important for teaching an introduction to clinical decision analysis to medical professionals. These topics were Bayes' theorem, decision trees, 2 X 2 tables, test sensitivity and specificity, utility, and ROC analysis. There was little agreement on course structure, level, or the preferred method for teaching decision analysis within medical settings. It was concluded that medical educators are in the process of constructing a knowledge base in decision-analytic techniques within academic medicine. It will soon be time to consider the place of more advanced topics within the continuum of medical education.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1985

Rationale for physicians' decisions to refer obese patients.

Health care costs are an increasing burden upon American society. Referral of patients to a specialist generates additional cost. We studied the reasons behind decisions to refer patients with uncomplicated obesity to endocrinologists. Obesity may be viewed as a paradigm of diseases with relatively well-known etiology, low morbidity and mortality, chronicity, and poor outcome from standard therapy. In addition, it is a disease that is rarely curable by medical intervention, requiring behavioral change. Physicians have little direct experience in the differential diagnosis of endocrine disease, because of its low prevalence. We studied the referral decisions of 45 physicians in three medical specialties. Clinical decision making was studied using a standard set of 24 carefully structured case reports of obese women, all without obvious endocrine disease cues on history or physical. In these cases the patients' desire to be seen by endocrinologists was the major factor in the decision to refer. Referrals were not made primarily to rule out suspected endocrine disorder or because of concern for increased risk of morbidity.

Body Weight↗
PubMed1984

Teaching clinical decision making.

Clinical judgment has traditionally been left to be acquired chiefly through personal experience and conversations with experienced practitioners. Given the explosion of knowledge and technology of recent years, a more systematic approach to managing information has become increasingly important. Ethical issues, both of a social and more individual nature, also increasingly demand attention. This paper describes one effort to address these problems through medical education. A three quarter pre-clinical course was revised to incorporate decision analysis and ethical analysis. The approach, results and problems of the two-year-old innovation are discussed, and general recommendations are offered.

Bioethical Issues↗
PubMed1984

Differences in medical referral decisions for obesity among family practitioners, general internists, and gynecologists.

This study explored variation in the decisions of primary care physicians to refer or not to refer obese patients to an endocrinologist and the principles underlying their decisions. Forty-five physicians--family practitioners, obstetricians, and general internists--made referral judgments on 24 cases and completed a questionnaire. Data indicated a difference among specialties in the number of cases referred (P less than or equal to 0.01) that was not accounted for by physician characteristics. The number of cases referred ranged from 0 to 19, with a mean of 8. The patient's desire for treatment by an endocrinologist was overwhelmingly the major factor in decisions to refer. Gynecologists differed from other physicians by referring for management and not expecting the patient to return to their care. Referrals were not made primarily to rule out suspected endocrine disease or out of concern for morbidity due to obesity. These referrals are thus not perceived as medically beneficial, but are responses to patient pressure or physicians' desire to transfer management.

Body Weight↗
PubMed1983

Application of decision analysis to management of cerebral arteriovenous malformation.

Consideration of cerebral arteriovenous malformation (AVM) illustrates how decision analysis may be used to evaluate systematically two treatment options--surgery before bleeding occurs or conservative management. The analysis balances risk of immediate surgical mortality and morbidity against the delayed risks inherent in conservative management. Because the condition is rare and local experience therefore scant, probability estimates have to be obtained from the literature. From these probability estimates and from estimates of attractiveness of various outcomes (made in this study by a clinician) a quantitative assessment of the risks and benefits of surgical versus medical management can be calculated. The finding is that conservative treatment is preferable to surgery in patients who present with an AVM before bleeding occurs, even when the probability estimates used are those obtained under conditions more favourable to surgery. The decision also remains unchanged when different attractiveness values are assigned to possible outcomes.

Adult↗
PubMed1983

A chart audit study of the referral of obese patients to endocrinologists.

The aim of this study was to identify factors in primary care physicians' decisions to refer obese patients to an endocrine clinic. Charts of 83 referred obese patients were compared with randomly selected charts of 300 obese adults in the general ambulatory clinic files. The referral rate is estimated at 1% of obese patients in the clinical center and 0.25% of obese persons in the Lansing area. Referral of obese patients appears to depend primarily on degree of obesity and secondarily on suspicion of endocrine disease. Considerations limiting the usefulness of patient charts for studies of physicians' decision making are discussed.

Adolescent↗